Oct 17 2009
To evaluate the reliability of the 21st Century Wave forecasts and to suggest possible modifications:
Each Month: Provide an executive summary – “The State of the Wave” — of Daily Wavelets for the 10 Wave Guides.
Each Day: Provide real-time commentary – “Daily Wavelets” — and evaluation of 21stCenturyWaves’ forecasts against events and trends for all Wave Guides of special interest from around the world.
THE 10 WAVE GUIDES:
1. US and Global Economic Growth
• Unparalleled economic growth is a hallmark of Maslow Windows
• Economic boom triggers the positive psychological attitudes that stimulate society to move up the Maslow Heirarchy, and rapidly open the Maslow Window
• Economic boom provides the cash for investment and risk-taking
• Mandelbaum/Friedman Theory – Economic Growth is a Moral Imperative
• Identify new “leading-sector” technologies and industries; i.e., for penetration of K Barrier
2. U.S. Public Opinion about Space, Technology, and Exploration (STE)…(See also Wave Guide 10)
• Interest in STE begins to surge long before (~10 yr) the Maslow Window.
• Space exploration is latest manifestation of deep-seated human need to explore according to anthropologists
• Generational characteristics support STE
• Pop Culture reflects surge in STE interest (See Wave Guide 10)
• Long-term social cycles swing back toward “adventurer mentality.
3. U.S. Politics and Space
• Major technology development funding precedes Maslow Window by ~10 yrs
• As international STE (Space/Technology/Exploration) interests grow, American concern grows.
• Near 2013, an international Sputnik-like, watershed event will make global headlines just prior to the next Maslow Window.
• U.S. reacts with “crash” program consistent with political and economic realities as Maslow Window expands
4. U.S. Science Education and Research (e.g. build-up of Sputnik-style concerns)
• Declines in U.S. dominance in science and technology become linked with educational performance.
• Maslow Windows are linked with increased education funding, expecially in science and engineering
5. International Space Programs
• International space world becomes strongly multi-polar toward the Maslow Window
• Steps toward international coordination, including an Interspace-like organization, are initiated (e.g., the recent 13-Member Space Coordination)
• U.S. leadership is increasingly shared.
6. Space Entrepreneurs
• Space entrepreneurs stimulate public, private, and even government interest in space
• Space entrepreneurs develop new technologies and concepts that challenge government approaches
• Space Entrepreneurs operate initially near and in LEO with minor activity targeting the Moon; Mars and deep space remains primarily a governmental arena
7. NASA Exploration & Macro-Engineering Programs
• Approaching the Maslow Window, NASA’s goals become aggressive, spectacular, and unprecedented
• Space Initiatives are developed in response to international threats: technology, economic, and/or military
• Major space and technology initiatives will be linked and culminate within the Maslow Window or risk premature termination (e.g., Apollo 18-20)
8. Non-Space Macro-Engineering Projects
• Top MEPs (e.g., Panama Canal) are usually accompanied by secondary MEPs (e.g., Titanic) during the same Maslow Window
• Top MEPs are often unrelated to secondary MEPs during the same Maslow Window; e.g., In the Apollo Maslow Window, the Apollo Moon program was unrelated to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline
• Early secondary MEPs (e.g. Mackinac Bridge) are a signal that the Maslow Window is approaching (within 5 – 10 yrs)
• Late secondary MEPs (e.g., Trans-Atlantic Pipeline) are a signal the Maslow Window has ended or is ending
• Every Maslow Window of the last 200 years was afflicted by a major war (e.g., W.W. I)
• The major war tends to occur late in the Maslow Window and terminates it
• Vietnam intensified earlier in the Maslow Window (e.g., 1968) than any major war in the last 200 years and could signal a new trend
• An “early” major war would potentially threaten the spectacular exploration and engineering activities of the Maslow Window; timing of major war is the biggest unknown
10. Pop Culture and Entertainment (See also Wave Guide 2)
• Modern pop culture reflects the concerns, beliefs, and interests of mainly young people
• In the 1960s, STE-related topics permeated pc
• The Vietnam War was a major influence on pc
• PC with STE-related topics and trends announce both the onset and closing of the Maslow Window