The definition of space colonization is to “live, work, and play in space” for a comfortably long period. And eventually, part of this experience for some lucky people will be to start their married lives together in space. “Eventually” may not be too much longer according to the UK’s Daily Mail who reported last month that Sir Richard Branson, the billionaire boss of Virgin Galactic, plans to be the first person to marry a couple in space. The happy couple is on the first flight sometime in 2009.

Virgin Galactic’s cost per person is $ 200,000. Reportedly 200 people have already reserved seats on the two-hour suborbital flights that peak 70 miles up (officially in space) and experience a black, twinkle-free, star-filled sky, and a brief zero-g experience. Physicist Steven Hawking and actress Victoria Principal are booked (not to get married, by the way!). This is definitely early “ebullient” behavior signaling our approach to the 2015 Maslow Window (See Perspectives Wave Guides 1 and 6), and will become even more compelling as more companies join the space tourism business and competition drives the prices down.

When the suborbital tourist business matures and prospers, you’ll be able to spend your honeymoon (first or second!) in an Earth-orbit hotel! The Shimizu Corporation proposed an innovative design in 1989.

The Shimizu Space Hotel concept spins around a 70 meter radius. .

Their concept features 0.7g artificial gravity using a 3 rpm hotel spin with 64 guest habitation modules. During the guests’ 2 day stays, part of the excitement will be deciding when to enjoy weightlessness and when to retreat to their suite for near-normal gravity! Shimizu’s 1989 cost study assumed 11,500 guests per year at the orbital hotel with a price of $ 43,500 per guest.

Sometimes a trend is very disturbing but potentially of strategic importance to the next race to space, so it cannot be ignored. The possibility of a new cold war is the perfect example.

In the 1950s, Cold War pressures between the Soviet Union and the United States played a major role in stimulating the first race to space (see Politics-Wave Guide 3, and Global Conflict-Wave Guide 9). It was the unexpected 1957 launch of Sputnik that almost instantly stimulated a nationwide crisis in education at all levels in America, the founding of NASA, and the inspirational 1961 commitment by President John F. Kennedy to land a man on the Moon before the end of the decade.

It isn’t just that last August President Putin started long-range patrols with strategic bombers that hadn’t occurred since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. And, it isn’t just that Putin attended the NATO Summit this March seeking to discourage deployment of missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic. It’s not even “Putin’s torture colonies”, as described by the Wall Street Journal (2/12/08), that were toned down under Yeltsin, but sadistically reinitiated when Putin came to power.

According to Edward Lucas, who’s covered Eastern Europe for 20 years for The Economist, it’s all these things and more, in his new book The New Cold War. Russia’s current Soviet-style issues include: return of the KGB, pressuring former Soviet satellite states, intimidation of journalists, repression of internal dissent, and the global threat of Russia’s huge oil and gas reserves.

Today, we already have the War on Terror. Superimposing a new cold war on this situation would be extremely dangerous. A new cold war would hugely impact the 2015 Maslow Window, and make this decade more like the 1960s than anyone would want it to be.

Is the sky falling? In The Atlantic (June, 2008) Gregg Easterbrook says that “it’s inevitable”. At a public event in Orange County last February that I organized, Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart described the populations of potential asteroid “bullets” in space, including the Main asteroid Belt and Kuiper Belt, and their threat to civilization. Some scientists like Richard Gott of Princeton have suggested that space colonization would provide a “life insurance policy” for humanity in the event of another large impactor.

Easterbrook also highlights newly discovered ocean floor craters that confirm what those of the continents suggested. Take a look at the pockmarked Moon sometime. That’s what the Earth used to look like 4 billion years ago before rain, oceans, and plate tectonics gained the upper hand and erased most of the craters due to hypervelocity asteroid and comet impacts.

However, the real question is what’s the likelihood we’ll be hit in your lifetime? Nobody knows of course, but it’s probably more than you think. The well-known 1908 Tunguska meteor, that produced an atomic bomb-like airburst over Siberia, could just as easily have leveled London or Moscow if it had hit there. We were lucky. Tunguska shows that even relatively small impactors (30 meters across) can be locally devastating, and they occur more frequently than big ones — perhaps a 10% chance per century of a locally dangerous asteroid or meteor impact.

What’s interesting is that NASA doesn’t have an asteroid/comet mitigation program, and although the U.S. Air Force seems interested, action on their part is unlikely due to international concerns. The message from Rusty in Orange County was that few people are aware of the real asteroid-impact threat. Indeed, the fact that The Atlantic chose to publish this article at all is remarkable. It suggests that The Atlantic editorial staff senses there is increased public interest in this topic, although there is no official action and little public outcry about it, yet. Although it could be a coincidence, this is the limited, but growing level of interest we would expect as public sensitivity to things cosmic increases as we ramp up to the next Maslow Window, due in only 5 -7 years.

Bruce Cordell is an educator and consultant who writes and speaks often on space exploration and colonization. He has degrees from UCLA (M.S.) and the University of Arizona (Ph.D.) in planetary and space physics, and was a Weizmann postdoctoral fellow at Caltech.

After serving as a physics professor at the California State University, Dr. Cordell flourished as a corporate space scientist and program manager for several years with General Dynamics, Space Systems in San Diego. During this time he worked closely with NASA on R&D contracts involving lunar bases and human missions to Mars, space transportation, and space resources.

General Dynamics awarded Dr. Cordell two Extraordinary Achievement Awards: the first for, “Acquisition of the Mars/Lunar Advanced Research Study contracts from NASA,” and the second for, “…promoting a favorable General Dynamics image in the San Diego area.”

At General Dynamics in San Diego with Apollo 12 astronaut Alan Bean (in center), Bruce (2nd from right), and V.P. Bill Rector (2nd from left) in 1986; Click .

Bruce organized and managed a diverse 10-member international team in support of General Dynamics’ advanced space studies efforts. It included 3 foreign firms (from Japan, Italy, Canada), 4 U.S. companies, 3 universities, and several consultants.

Ever since he was 7 years old, while growing up on the shores of Lake Michigan, Dr. Cordell has been fascinated by the idea of humans going to Mars. In 1991, he was named one of the “100 Stars of Space”, by Ad Astra, The Magazine of the National Space Society (Washington, D.C.). He was described by Ad Astra as one of the top, “…imaginers of the future… freethinkers of the space program…”

In the 1970s while using spacecraft data, Bruce provided some of the first evidence that water was common on Mars. In 1982, he proposed a new (still viable) mechanism for climate change on Mars based on ion-induced nucleation processes and physical analogies with magnetic polarity reversals on Earth. In 1985, based on geological and geophysical data, Bruce published the first systematic study of the potential for ore bodies on Mars and concluded it resembled parts of east and south Africa.

In the mid-1980s, Dr. Cordell developed a ground-breaking concept for interplanetary commerce featuring retrieval of water from the moons of Mars for transportation and industrial uses in the Earth-Moon system. He led the first study – supported by grants from NASA and the General Dynamics Corporation – showing its economic advantages and technical feasibility.

In 1989 Dr. Cordell was invited to the Joint Propulsion Conference in Monterey, CA to summarize the state-of-the-art of manned Mars missions. He published a 20,000 word review of the strategies, technologies, concepts, and rationales for human missions to Mars.

Bruce was an invited speaker at Space Summit 1991 – An International Conference on Space Programs, held at the Von Braun Civic Center in Huntsville, AL. He described his new concept for a world space agency (“Interspace”) in which its core members – Russia, Europe, Japan, U.S. – share power equally and support participation from any nation.

Bruce speaking at Space Summit 1991 in Huntsville with conference organizer David Christensen (center) and ESA’s Ian Pryke; Click :

In 1996, Dr. Cordell published “Forecasting the Next Major Thrust into Space” (in Space Policy), in which he introduced his new theory, based on patterns in long-term trends in the economy and technology over the last 200 years, that logically explained our romance with President Kennedy’s space program in the 1960s and our boredom with it in the 1970s. And more importantly, based on macroeconomic and macrohistorical trends, he was able to forecast that the decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog of the 1960’s. For example, it should culminate in humans on Mars and lunar tourists. In 2006, these ideas were expanded in “21st Century Waves: Forecasting Technology Booms and Human Expansion into the Cosmos” that appeared in Futures Research Quarterly. (See The Articles)

Dr. Cordell has appeared on television news and entertainment programs a total of nearly 100 times (mostly in Southern California) describing space exploration and astrophysics events in the news. For example, in 1994 Dr. Cordell was featured in the PBS television series “FutureQuest”. He commented about Mars bases, space tourism, and interstellar travel along with Apollo astronaut Edgar Mitchell, comedian Dennis Miller, former JPL director Bruce Murray, and others. Actor Jeff Goldblum was the host.

A few years earlier, Bruce was featured in a 2-hour call-in television show available to middle and high school students across the United States which originated from the KPBS-TV studios at San Diego State University. Also featured were Apollo astronaut Wally Schirra (who frequently appeared with Walter Cronkite on CBS space news programs in the 1960s) and Alan Lovelace, former Deputy Administrator of NASA.

Bruce has given over 150 public talks on space to groups of all types across the United States and in Europe and India. His presentations have stimulated a wide range of audiences including corporations (e.g., Shimizu, United Technologies, Alitalia, Halliburton), colleges (e.g., UC San Diego, University of Houston, Caltech, International Space University), government agencies (e.g., U.S. Air Force, NASA, Congressional staffs) and clubs and museums (e.g., Del Mar Rotary, Griffith Observatory, MIT Alumni Club). His memberships include the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, World Future Society, British Interplanetary Society, and Society for College and University Planning.

When he’s not writing or speaking about the future, Dr. Cordell enjoys playing tennis, visiting Maui, and exploring bookstores. He lives in Southern California.
To request Bruce to speak to your group, click HERE.

Today marks the first-ever State of the Wave for this Weblog.

Every other Friday we review the previous two weeks for signs of progress toward real, near-term space colonization focused on the approach to the 2015 Maslow Window. In particular, world events and trends are compared directly with our Forecasts, specifically in the context of the Ten Wave Guides. In addition to international and U.S. space and technology activities, these include a diverse set of indicators such as economic growth, education, global conflict, and popular culture.

Because this blog is still very new, this week we identify and limit discussion to only the top three most revealing indicators. In the future we’ll provide more in-depth reviews and syntheses of our Wave Guides’ trajectories toward space colonization. The following editors contributed to this summary: Rachel Nishimura, Olivia Wolfe, Ann Hovey, and the author.

Based on this early analysis, the State of the Wave is good. In recent Daily Wavelets we are especially impressed by signs of early ebullience and by evidence that potential key players are (becoming) well-positioned for the upcoming Maslow Window. The following prioritized list suggests to us that the Maslow ramp-up is occurring nominally:

1. “Google Recruits Mars Pioneers!” 5/11/08: We are impressed that the founders of Google are sincerely promoting a human mission to Mars based on “sufficiently advanced” technology and mission timing, which is very consistent with our forecasts. Because it’s highly unlikely their business plan requires human settlements on Mars (!), we consider this to be a genuine sign of early ebullience that’s very consistent with a Maslow Window-minus-7 timeframe.

2. “Surging Brazil is a Global Space Power!” 5/20/08: Brazil’s expertise in space technology has been evident for a long time, including their collaborations with China, Russia, and the U.S.. Now that their economy is booming they are perfectly positioned for the international thrust into space expected around 2013.

3. “The U.S….Leviathan or Left Behind?” 5/21/08: Despite current economic problems in the U.S., the long-term view is as we expect: America’s dynamic economy and vibrant society should enable it to be a leader in the next race to space, starting after 2013 and culminating in the 2020s.

You haven’t lived until you’ve seen the F-22 Raptor in a demo flight! Contributing Editor Ann Hovey and I had this extraordinary experience May 3 at the March AirFest in Moreno Valley, California. It’s pure ebullience!

To see the F-22 in flight Click f-22-air.jpg.

Here at 21stCenturyWaves.com “ebullience” is a technical term associated with twice-per-century economic booms which elevate society to the highest levels of the Maslow Hierarchy. This extraordinary confluence of affluence and ebullience creates a climate supportive of great explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark) and stunning MEPs (e.g., Panama Canal); see Economic Growth, Wave Guide 1.

The crowd at the AirFest was huge, around 400,000 this year, 100,000 more than in previous years, according to Major Donald Troud of March Public Affairs. Most likely this was due to the F-22′s first public appearance in Southern California although the Thunderbirds also awed the crowd!

The Thunderbirds were magnificent. Click thunderbirds.jpg.

From the vertical take-off to the hovers, and from the very fast to the very slow passes and the incredibly tight turns, the F-22 is an emotional symbol of extraordinary technological capability and the promise of the future. The huge family crowd was stunned and thrilled, an intense version of the feeling of ebullience — albeit momentary on May 3 — that spreads across society as the ramp-up to a Maslow Window proceeds.

The huge crowd was ebullient. Click marchfamilies.jpg.

Happy Memorial Day! And happy Early Ebullience!

There’s no doubt that the U.S. economy leaves the public cold, as reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index now at a 30 year low. This certainly gets one’s attention in terms of its ability to drive near-term technology and space activities characteristic of a Maslow Window. (See Economic Growth, Wave Guide 1) Even the Wall Street Journal’s front page assurance (May 14, 2008), “Recession? Not so fast, say some..” might not fully restore one’s bouyant faith in the future.

However, fear not. The long-term picture looks very bright according to Fareed Zakaria (Editor of Newsweek International) in the current Foreign Affairs (May/June 2008). Zakaria immediately disposes of the notion that the U.S. will decline British-style because of the long-lived dominance (since the 1880s) of America’s economy and its vibrant society. In fact, he suggests that even in 2025 — the end of the upcoming Maslow Window — the United States’ nominal GDP will still be double that of China. This is consistent with our nominal forecast model that features China leading a group of space powers (instead of going it alone) during their aggressive (i.e., Sputnik-like) move into space near 2013. Patterns of GDP values over the last 200 years suggest the U.S.’ GDP in 2025 will be 2 to 3 times its current value (Cordell, 2006).

Zakaria emphasizes the U.S. economy has produced around one quarter of the world’s GDP for over a century, and for 25 years has maintained GDP growth over 3% (higher than Japan or Europe). This, and the consent of the world, allows the U.S. to account for nearly 50% of global defense spending and to assume the role of “Leviathan” (i.e., the trusted enforcer) in the globalization strategies of Thomas Barnett and others. Even so, defense is only 4% of U.S. GDP (about 40% of the Cold War value), and Iraq and Afghanistan sum to less than 1% GDP. Zakaria concludes that America’s bright future is also assured by its world-class universities and its robust demographics, due largely to its traditionally liberal immigration policies. The moral of the story is: As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window and beyond, America’s dynamic economy and vibrant society will continue to facilitate its role as a key leader for human expansion into the cosmos.

On May 14, 1804 Lewis and Clark started their legendary exploration of the Great Northwest! We chose the 204th anniversary of their departure for the Official Launch of this Weblog on the prospects for Space Colonization!

WELCOME to Everyone !!!

Lewis and Clark in 1804 was the first of the 4 great human exploration events of the last 200 years. In fact, many of the economic and political forces which drove their mission are similar to those that propelled the Apollo Moon program in the 1960s.

Our strategic approach in this blog is different:
We use patterns in long-term trends in the economy, technology, and society that have repeated for the last 200 years to give us insight into the next 20!

Probably the best place to start is The Concept page to discover how illuminating this approach is.

Indeed, the lesson of the last 200 years is that the future of the next 20 years is so bright, you’ll probably need shades! Major Apollo-style technology and space programs will soon announce the opening of the next international race to space. That’s the highly likely good news. It’s also possible that we could miss this opportunity for human expansion into the cosmos. If we do, the last 200 years indicate our next shot will be near the end of this century.

Our blog philosphy is to tell you what the last 200 years suggest will happen, not necessarily what we personally want to occur. And although we do talk politics, we don’t officially endorse candidates because our fundamental interest is in evaluating our space colonization forecasts against events and trends from the real world. This reality-based blog about the near-term future in space will tell a generally positive story, simply because that’s what the last 200 years strongly suggest.

This blog is for your enjoyment and use. Please take a tour. Tell us when we get it wrong, and it’s OK to compliment us too! If we miss important articles, news, or points of view, email them to us!

It’s time for your own personal launch into 21stCenturyWaves.com!
See you at The Concept page!

“Live Long and Prosper!”

Congratulations to Brazil! Last week the Wall Street Journal (5/13/08) headlined that, “Brazil Joins the Front Rank of New Economic Powers!” Finally joining the surging, emerging “BRIC” group — Brazil, Russia, India, China — Brazil has added a robust currency to its already world-class power in agriculture and natural resources. Although growing at only 5% (not yet at stratospheric Chinese levels), Brazil has become a “growth engine” for the global economy, and is so cash rich it enjoys a new $ 125 B plan to stimulate Brazilian high-tech industries and exports.

In this blog I speak often of an expected Sputnik-like shock materializing near 2013 possibly led by China and other dynamic space powers who will announce their plan for the large-scale development and colonization of space (see International Space -Wave Guide 5). Brazil’s association with BRIC suggests they would be well-positioned contenders for such a group as we ramp up to the 2015 Maslow WIndow.

Brazil has Latin America’s most prominent space program including their own launch vehicles, environmental and communication satellites (some in cooperation with China), and their enviable Alcantara launch site (within 2 degrees of the equator)! In 2006, the first Brazilian astronaut — Marcos Pontes — after training with NASA, ascended on a Russian Soyuz rocket for a $ 10.5 M, week-long stay on the International Space Station. Colonel Pontes’ instant celebrity power exceeded even the best soccer stars that Brazil has to offer, and gave him access to the Brazilian president and a prominent association with Brazilian comic books and toys! However, in typical pre-Maslow Window style, some Brazilian scientists and journalists suggested the $ 10.5 M could have been better spent elsewhere.

In 1992 writing in Space Policy, I suggested that Rio de Janeiro would be an ideal headquarters city for a new global space organization that we forecast will form by 2014. Today it seems even more appropriate considering Brazil’s likely pivotal role in the rapidly approaching international race to space.

I highly recommend Matthew Parker’s new book, Panama Fever – The Epic Story of One of the Greatest Human Achievements of all Time — The Building of the Panama Canal. (See Non-Space MEPs, Wave Guide 8) Parker dazzlingly explains how the greatest macro-engineering project (MEP) of the last 200 years – until the Apollo Moon Program of the 1960s — set the stage for the “American Century” and dramatically accelerated globalization. Indeed, the Panama Canal of 1914 was the equivalent of Apollo for the early 20th Century Maslow Window.

Just as Apollo captured global attention and passion during the 1960s, “Panama Fever” spread through the early 20th Century Western World, despite the fact that the cost, management, and technological challenges of the Canal were unparalleled. And the tragic war-like death toll exceeding 25,000 — although the “war” was with disease and disasters — indicates the high international stakes associated with the Canal.

Roughly every half century during periods of unparalleled economic booms, exceptional societal affluence makes monumental MEPs financially possible, and the associated ebullience (as society ascends the Maslow Heirarchy) makes them, at least momentarily, politically irresistible. Panama and Apollo show how compelling this combination of affluence and ebullience can be. As I remarked in the Wave Guide 8 Perspectives piece, there is no shortance of early ebullience on display around the world today. Perhaps the most impressive example is the Panama Canal Expansion project. The overwhelming political support by Panamanians for this risky, estimated $ 5+ B MEP (more than original cost) is stunning. It’s precisely the sort of early ebullience we’d expect within 10 years of the rapidly approaching 2015 Maslow Window.