The last 200 years teach us that every 56 years or so, when an unparalleled economic boom produces the exceptional affluence and eventually even the widespread ebullience that we call a Maslow Window, there is both good news and bad news. The good news is major human explorations like Apollo and spectacular macro-engineering projects like the Panama Canal. The bad news is the tragic death and destruction associated with a major war like W.W. I.

In the last 200 years there are no exceptions: every Maslow Window ended shortly before a major war. Although the wars themselves may not have directly terminated Maslow Windows, the destructive psychological and economic effects of the wars were sufficient to reduce the unusually high ebullience and affluence characteristic of society during a typical Maslow Window.

However, one bad omen is that the most recent Maslow Window (Apollo) was clearly terminated directly by the intensification of the Vietnam War in 1968. During this time there was campus unrest, budget and political pressure, and considerable anti-war feeling across the U.S.. President Nixon responded by canceling the last three Apollo missions (18, 19, and 20) and eventually by terminating the entire manned space program except for the Shuttle.

It is sobering to consider what might have happened if Vietnam had exploded just a few years earlier. All the Moon landings — not just the last 3 — might have been lost. Indeed, the most troubling and uncertain wildcard for the 2020s is the timing of future major military conflicts and their negative effects for society, including the potential loss of MEPs and the long-term postponement of human expansion into the cosmos.

Upcoming posts in Wave Guide 9 will focus on parallels between the previous Cold War and the current War on Terror as well as specific potential flashpoints (e.g., Taiwan) that political scientists and strategists have identified as future threats. If, as some analysts suggest, a new cold war has already begun, this will be partly an unfortunate consequence of generational and economic patterns of 56 years ago that are starting to repeat again today. A new cold war superimposed on the current War on Terror in the context of an increasingly multipolar world (e.g., including China and others), while potentially dangerous, would definitely be consistent with the specific forecasts of this blog.

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