There’s no doubt that the U.S. economy leaves the public cold, as reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index now at a 30 year low. This certainly gets one’s attention in terms of its ability to drive near-term technology and space activities characteristic of a Maslow Window. (See Economic Growth, Wave Guide 1) Even the Wall Street Journal’s front page assurance (May 14, 2008), “Recession? Not so fast, say some..” might not fully restore one’s bouyant faith in the future.

However, fear not. The long-term picture looks very bright according to Fareed Zakaria (Editor of Newsweek International) in the current Foreign Affairs (May/June 2008). Zakaria immediately disposes of the notion that the U.S. will decline British-style because of the long-lived dominance (since the 1880s) of America’s economy and its vibrant society. In fact, he suggests that even in 2025 — the end of the upcoming Maslow Window — the United States’ nominal GDP will still be double that of China. This is consistent with our nominal forecast model that features China leading a group of space powers (instead of going it alone) during their aggressive (i.e., Sputnik-like) move into space near 2013. Patterns of GDP values over the last 200 years suggest the U.S.’ GDP in 2025 will be 2 to 3 times its current value (Cordell, 2006).

Zakaria emphasizes the U.S. economy has produced around one quarter of the world’s GDP for over a century, and for 25 years has maintained GDP growth over 3% (higher than Japan or Europe). This, and the consent of the world, allows the U.S. to account for nearly 50% of global defense spending and to assume the role of “Leviathan” (i.e., the trusted enforcer) in the globalization strategies of Thomas Barnett and others. Even so, defense is only 4% of U.S. GDP (about 40% of the Cold War value), and Iraq and Afghanistan sum to less than 1% GDP. Zakaria concludes that America’s bright future is also assured by its world-class universities and its robust demographics, due largely to its traditionally liberal immigration policies. The moral of the story is: As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window and beyond, America’s dynamic economy and vibrant society will continue to facilitate its role as a key leader for human expansion into the cosmos.

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