Just got back from my brief TV interview with KGTV 10News anchor Hal Clement and with Mike, who operated the camera. We slipped into the San Diego Air & Space Museum in Balboa Park because they just opened their new Star Trek exhibit, which we thought would be fun for a backdrop. It was tremendous. We met James Kidrick, the President and CEO of the Museum, who explained they have, among many other Star Trek items, the original set from Star Trek used on the series. If you haven’t been there, you should be asking yourself: Why not?

Hal asked me why I think we’re moving rapidly toward the next international race to space. The basic reason is the economic, technology, and exploration history of the last 200 years. Twice a century — typically every 55 or 56 years — 3 types of things happen: 1) A great exploration occurs (the first one was Lewis and Clark), 2) massive technology programs known as macro-engineering projects (MEPs) occur such as the Panama Canal –except for the Lewis & Clark window, and 3) tragically, a major war occurs. All 3 activities are driven by unusually large 1960s-style economic booms. The timing of President Kennedy’s Apollo Moon Program suggests the next Maslow Window will slide open near 2013-2015.

Hal also asked about how current problems, such as gas prices and the economy in general, relate to this 21st Century Waves model. The gas problem goes back at least to 1973, during the economic contraction after the Apollo Maslow WIndow, when oil producers reduced the supply and forced some Americans to buy gasoline only on alternative days! That was an early wake-up call. But American leaders responded mostly with rhetoric. The current problem is not a technology issue; we know how to conserve and how to use alternate fuels. And it’s not a supply problem; we have decades of oil in offshore areas. It’s a political problem. As a group, our Washington elites do not yet perceive oil as a strategic crisis, and so are responding in true election year fashion. Coordinated government action nudging the U.S. away from a petroleum-dominated economy will occur as soon as the American public’s pain from rising gas prices reaches the ears of Congress and the President.

On the other hand, one year ago Fortune Magazine declared that the global expansion was the “greatest economic boom ever.” This is exactly the headline we expect about 15-17 years out from the peak of the economic boom. Although our current economic pain is real, it’s important to realize that recessions (to the extent the U.S. and others are officially experiencing them) do occur even during economic booms. However, the lesson of the last 200 years of economic waves is that our ascent toward the boom — although temporarily interrupted now — will resume and continue to accelerate.

Finally, Hal was intrigued by the fact that, over the last 200 years, the great explorations are always synchronized with the biggest economic booms. There are several ways to think of this. For example, why does a child in elementary school only play during recess? Is it because that’s the only time he or she wants to? No, it’s the only time they can. Likewise for humans and exploration. In the modern world, most of us are too busy making a living and caring for our families and communities to spend much time exploring. It’s only when societal affluence skyrockets during the twice-per-century economic booms, that most of us ascend the Maslow Heirarchy and ebulliently indulge our raw human exploration passions.

After all, exploration is in our genes. Anthropologists tell us that for the last 200,000 years, exploration for new food sources, territories, and expansion was our way of life. And we’re still explorers. During the last 200 years, although we couldn’t always physically go along ourselves, we’ve vicariously been enthralled with each of the great explorations. Just ask Neil Armstrong (Apollo Moon, 1969), Adm. Peary (North Pole, 1909), “Dr. Livingstone I presume?” (Central Africa, 1856), and Lewis and Clark (Northwest N. America, 1804).

Now it’s time to go play some tennis, un-vicariously of course.

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