The Chinese National Space Administration announced yesterday that its 3rd manned mission will be in October and will feature the first-ever Chinese space walk. China’s first manned mission was in 2003, when they became the third country to join the manned space club. The Shenzhou VII spacecraft (“divine vessel”) will be launched with 3 Chinese astronauts (“taikonauts”) from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, in Gansu province. Space walks are important to construction and maintenance of the planned space station according to Qi Faren, former chief designer of the Shenzhou spacecrafts.

This mission demonstates the continuing commitment of China to manned operations in space and it clearly suggests that China will be a major leader of the next international race to space expected to begin within 5 – 7 years. The October launch date was not specified and the astronauts’ identities we not revealed, although they have been selected and continue to train for the mission.

Chinese astronauts practice in a water tank to simulate low-g.

Although China has not announced a schedule for this program, the permanent station is expected to be a modular, 20-ton class orbital facility in orbit by 2020. Various press accounts also have them establishing a Moon base by 2024, and perhaps even going on to Mars. In 2004, Brian Harvey (China’s Space Program) indicated that firm numbers are hard to get, but there are about “10,000 graduate engineers working in 460 institutes…” connected to the Chinese space program. Harvey quotes an estimate for the China to U.S. space budget ratio of 4.5% in 2001. In 2006, China indicated this ratio had grown to 10%; on a GDP basis it would indicate the 2006 U.S. budgetary commitment to space was only 4 times larger than China’s. Thus it’s likely that China will look for international partners during the next 5+ years as their space infrastructure and experience grows, especially, according to their white papers, for partners in the Asia-Pacific region.

Foreign policy strategist Thomas Barnett suggests that, “…we’re less than five years from a new generation of Chinese leaders with whom a far stronger relationship may well be built.” If true the world may celebrate the win-win of China’s strong push toward space as it constructively rises on the world stage.

The world’s largest scientific instrument — CERN’s Large Hadron Collider (LHC) — is approaching “switch on” and the search for what physicists call “the God particle” is on again! The sparkling excitement associated with this type of Big Science and its pursuit of the nature of matter, black holes, and the origin of the Universe, reminds us of another project…

Once upon a time there was an American project called the Superconducting Super Collider (SSC). SSC was to be 3 times more powerful than LHC and targeted the same holy grail of physics. But despite being advocated and managed in the U.S. by the world’s best physicists, it failed.

SSC’s fate is illuminated by the last 200 years of patterns in the economy, technology, and society, and provides lessons for future macro-engineering projects (MEPs) and great explorations.

Lesson 1: Never initiate a $ multi-B MEP during the downgoing portion of the 56 year energy/economic cycle (it peaked in 1969). Society was not affluent (we were headed for the 1987 stock market crash; largest since the Great Depression) and cost was an issue. SSC cost was estimated at $ 4+ B in 1987 and $ 12+ B in 1993 when it was finally canceled by Congress.

Lesson 2: Never propose a big MEP during the downgoing portion of the 56-year energy/economic cycle when another spectacular MEP has already been approved. President Reagan announced Space Station Freedom in 1984 and SSC site selection began in 1987. We’re reminded that SSC wounds haven’t healed yet by Nobel physicist Steven Weinberg who last year called the International Space Station (ISS) an “…orbital turkey,” and ridiculed human spaceflight in general.

Lesson 3: Large MEPs like SSC that are proposed between Maslow Windows (i.e., “trough” projects) must be associated with a strategic conflict (e.g. the A-Bomb project during WW II) for them to be viable. SSC was a competition between the U.S. and our friends the Europeans; Congress lost interest.

Lesson 4: MEPs proposed at any time must be impressive and inspirational to achieve public approval. Unlike the pyramids, European cathedrals, and the Panama Canal, most of SSC was buried underground and invisible. Although the physics was profound, the message was lost.

Nothing says ebullience like sex and beer!!

Here at 21stCenturyWaves.com “ebullience” is a technical term associated with twice-per-century economic booms which elevate society to the highest levels of the Maslow Hierarchy. This extraordinary confluence of affluence and ebullience creates a climate supportive of great explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark), stunning MEPs (e.g., Panama Canal),…and even other things. (See Economic Growth, Wave Guide 1.)

Virgin Galactic has been receiving requests from couples aspiring to be the first to have sex in space. Achieving intercourse in low gravity is of fundamental importance if we’re to ever colonize the cosmos with our progeny. But according to UPI, space medicine expert Dr. James Logan warns that, “Couples would likely find sex without gravity to be more trouble than it’s worth.” However in my opinion, space sex is going to be HOT!

Zero gravity will allow couples to be more mobile but a space chapter will have to be added to the Kama Sutra. Bedrooms will have grips installed on the ceiling for those kinds of positions, and couples will be outfitted with vanilla velcro! The more adventurous couples will be able to finally achieve the elusive “retrograde wheelbarrow” (a very athletic love position).

Of course, it’s only appropriate that copulating space couples bond over a bottle of beer. Japan’s famous Sapporo Holdings Ltd. is planning on brewing a beer using barley harvested from space. There is no reported difference in taste, but I do enjoy the novelty of it and it’s nice to know that I may one day have the luxury of responsibly drinking in space.

Here’s to ebullience!

The world’s largest democracy has a booming economy and major space expertise, and plans to be a world-class player in Earth-Moon space. Along with Brazil (See “Surging Brazil is a Global Space Power”), India is an impressive example of a global space power that wants to accelerate its expansion into space.

Despite increasing global economic turmoil, Wall Street Journal reports (5/31/08) that India’s economy surged 8.8% in the first three months of 2008 from a year earlier. Most of the growth was in construction and services industries, although there are potential challenges on the horizon. For example, transportation infrastructure is “at the brink of collapse”.

I spoke on lunar and Mars resources at the 1988 International Astronautical Federation meeting in Bangalore and was impressed by the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) facilities and scientific staff. India launched its first satellite in 1975. Since the 1980s, India has developed and used their INSAT (communications, weather) and IRS (resource monitoring) satellites. Their two launch systems are the PSLV (1200 kg to polar orbits) since 1997, and the GSLV (2000 kg to GEO, includes a cryogenic upper stage) since 2001.

PSLV-C9 launched from ISRO Launch Center, 100 km north of Chennai.

In 2006, the ISRO briefed 80 Indian scientists on a 4 year study of a possible Indian manned space mission including development of an Orbital Vehicle that would be launched by GSLV. Milestones would include: first manned flight in 2014, and the first Indian on the Moon between 2020 – 2025. The ISRO continues “serious consideration” of a manned Indian space program.

This impressive, ebullient activity is very consistent with an international Sputnik-like event near 2013 and the opening of the next Maslow Window shortly thereafter.

Physics Nobelist Leon Lederman’s recent column in Science News (5/10/08) eloquently defends the importance of science literacy. In a world that challenges the public’s wisdom in such crucial areas as space colonization, personalized medicine, nanotechnology, global climate change, and many others, “…there must be a major increase in the capability of ordinary people to cope with the scientific and technological culture that is shaping their lives and the lives of their children.”

Francis Fukuyama emphasizes the point, “…modern natural science produces historical change that is both directional and universal…” (The End of History and the Last Man, 1992). There is simply no escaping it’s advance.

Last time around in the 1960s, the Apollo Moon program stimulated a generation of American students to study math and science and join in the cosmic fun of exploration and new knowledge. As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, it’s likely that the most daunting challenge faced by any educator — student motivation — will be solved ebulliently as before.

Indeed, Dr. Lederman’s concerns are reminiscent of the Sputnik era: “Can we modify our educational system so that all high school graduates emerge with a science way of thinking?” This will require a new way of thinking by teachers, an activist role by scientists, and some recognition of the spectacular potential for human expansion that lies ahead.

Every two weeks we summarize specific progress toward the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window and movement toward real, near-term space colonization. The focus is on events and trends from around the world of long-range significance, especially in the context of the 10 Wave Guides.

The last two weeks have been unusually important in terms of space firsts and American presidential politics.

Impressive symbols of continuing successful robotic planetary exploration and resurgent human space exploration, with emphases on international cooperation and space science, were beautifully displayed recently! The first spacecraft landing in the Mars arctic was superbly accomplished by Phoenix on May 25. Already busily searching out the secrets of ice, life, and climate on Mars, Phoenix reminds us of how important robotic exploration is to providing a science and exploration framework (and to reducing risks) for future astronauts on Mars.

The Shuttle’s spectacular delivery of the large Japanese “Kibo” Module to International Space Station (ISS) this week demonstrated that the ISS’ international science mission is finally within reach! Although still “trapped” in Earth orbit, ISS and Shuttle astronauts convincingly model our long-term commitment to science and human operations in space. While challenges remain — e.g., completing ISS within 2 years, living without the Shuttle fleet after 2010 — NASA administrator Mike Griffin advises that these are doable. And the Phoenix Lander plus our other robotic planetary emissaries confirm that we’re becoming well-positioned for accelerated global human spaceflight activities as the next Maslow Window slides open near 2013 – 2015.

The mass media become more sensationalized and noisy than usual within 6 – 12 months of an American presidential election, but at least this week we established that it’s Obama vs. McCain. It’s not clear yet who will win or which candidate would be more likely to support large-scale space activities but we have preliminarily addressed both questions ( See “McCain and the Republican Panic”, and “Is Obama a Space Guy?”). His famous personal qualities suggest Obama has the potential to become a John F. Kennedy-like character in terms of leading the next race to space, but long-term economic and social trends appear to favor the election of McCain. The campaign will depend on public perceptions of a stumbling economy and an increasingly winnable war in Iraq. Also of long-term concern is the possibility of a renewed cold war with Russia.

One of our favorite things in life is to test our forecast models, because they’re based on patterns in long-term trends in the economy, technology, and society over the last 200 years. In this case we project the November presidential election to discern if there is good reason for “The Republican Panic,” as the Wall Street Journal recently (5/15/08) called it. Please remember that our forecasts are based on what we believe the last 200 years suggest will occur, not necessarily on what we individually prefer. Our major interest, of course, is how the political season plays into our space forecast models.

Earlier (“I like IKE…One More Time?”) we highlighted similarities between John McCain and Dwight Eisenhower. In the spirit of the 56-year energy/economics cycle documented in this blog and elsewhere, compelling parallels can also be identified in the pre-Eisenhower era.

Truman’s and “Dubya” Bush’s first terms tantalizingly are 56 years apart (1945 and 2001), which suggests the economic, political, and military framework of each administration should have had similarities, although Bush did not have an analog for W.W. II. In fact, each president governed during times of unpopular conflicts – Truman in Korea, and Bush in Iraq. The Truman years saw the birth of the Cold War. Today, Russian President Putin is seen by some as launching the same cold war tensions (See “A New Cold War?”). After WWII, the Truman era featured a wave of anti-communism and international tensions. Bush’s administration, in response to international terrorist attacks, introduced the Patriot Act. Thus both presidents governed in an environment of controversy where national security and civil liberties seemed to compete.

In terms of their public persona, both Truman and Bush were/are perceived by many as being “rough around the edges,” and as somewhat unenlightened. Their public approval ratings plummeted during their terms of office with record lows (20s – 30s), although both presidents presided over significant economic gowth.

The stiking similarities between the Truman and Bush periods suggest our long-term approach has forecast value for the post-Bush era. Specifically — to make a long story very short — our model suggests the public will respond to today’s military and economic uncertainties by electing someone with the experience and “father-figure” image of General Eisenhower. McCain fits the bill here. Obviously there are many wildcards (e.g., Obama’s “associations”; McCain’s “temperment”) that could nudge the election in another direction, much like too many fumbles can cause a favored football team to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

However, the longer-term picture favors Democrats. As the U.S. approached the economic boom of the 1960s, Americans resonated with John F. Kennedy, a Democrat who became wildly popular due to his personal charisma, youth, and verbal facility, and who initiated the Apollo Moon program. Therefore, after the next president’s term, we expect a Democratic president in 2012 or 2016 with the personal image and leadership style of JFK. This individual will be The One to propel the U.S. into the extraordinary confluence of affluence and ebullience known as the 2015 Maslow Window.

Now that Obama is the Democratic candidate only two questions remain: 1) Will he win in November? and 2) Is he the new John F. Kennedy who will lead us in the next race to space?

Previously (Is Obama the Next ONE?) we revealed that the next Space President (SP) will be elected in either 2012 or 2016 based on our forecast model nominal timeline. His election in 2012 would require him to be a 2-term president, assuming he wins in 2008. In a soon-to-be-released post, we’ll comment on whether Obama will be celebrating in November.

Is Obama a Space Guy? Even lovingly blind devotion to Obama can’t help but morph into concern over his current space policy: He’d delay NASA’s Constellation program by five years to help pay for an $18 billion education initiative. Well, gee wiz….artificially pitting NASA against education programs is an unsophisticated, old-fashioned idea characteristic of pre-Maslow Window times (like now). His policy would result in a decade delay in human space exploration. And, with the projected Maslow Window approaching in 5 – 7 years, he’d effectively eradicate human space exploration, until perhaps the next Maslow Window opens up in 2071.

However, we still believe Obama could be our next SP because he is an adaptable leader and a quick study. Once he recognizes the public’s increasing desire for space exploration as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, he’ll respond. John F. Kennedy did not enter his presidency with an agenda to go to the Moon. But he rapidly responded to Soviet pressures by leading the U.S. into the 1960s space race, to inspire Americans and re-establish international prestige (See Education, Wave Guide 4).

Although Obama has taken considerable heat for his Chicago church membership, we believe it supports our point. What could be more difficult than resigning from his church of 20 years given his extensive personal connections? However, it shows that Obama learns quickly and can change rapidly according to his perception of the people’s will. If China challenges the U.S. in space and triggers an international Sputnik-like event near 2013 (as we forecast), we believe Obama’s Kennedy-like reaction would be to lead us to Mars!

Actually, right now: Nobody knows. The 2007 Planetary Defense Conference in Washington, D.C. — attended by government, academic, corporate, and a few military folks — concluded that, “No single agency in any country has responsibility for moving forward on NEO (Near Earth Object) deflection, and disaster control agencies have not simulated this type of disaster.” The asteroid/comet impact disaster is hinted at by special effects in the movie “Deep Impact“.

NASA’s job is space research and technology development, so discovery and characterization of NEOs is certainly their business. But the 50-year-old law which established NASA appears to reserve “defense of the U.S.” for DoD. However, in an email to me yesterday, Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart insisted that he’d “like to keep the US/DoD for dealing with enemies…not the natural environment.”

The 2007 Conference emphasized that the NEO threat is one demanding international cooperation. This “…foundation for international cooperation and action in all areas related to planetary defense…may (include) international manned and unmanned space exploration.” This is consistent with our Forecast that NASA will soon evolve into a more international-style body like “Interspace“ where leadership is shared and participation is open to many countries.

Two Air Force officers — Peter Garretson and Douglas Kaupa — suggested last year that the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) could take charge of NEOs. Tracking NEOs is similar to their current space surveillance mission and their focus is U.S. security, not space exploration. Schweickart counters that world trust in U.S./DoD is not high, and “in the international asteroid deflection challenge, trust will be a major factor in whether or not anything is done when we find the first one that needs attending to.”

Although we don’t yet have the answer, this highly visible debate signals enhanced interest and concern about strongly interacting with our cosmic environment; more evidence for our close approach to the 2015 Maslow Window.

In his interesting article in The Atlantic (June, 2008) Gregg Easterbrook emphasizes the threat of asteroid impacts on Earth by saying, “Wouldn’t shifting NASA’s focus away from wasting money on the Moon and toward…deflecting dangerous space objects…” be more likely to increase national prestige? Let’s examine a few of the misconceptions in this question.

The discovery and characterization of asteroids is a NASA function but their removal as a threat (at least to the U.S.) would probably be coordinated by DoD. Legalities aside, the bigger issue is that few people understand the seriousness of the asteroid threat to Earth. The last megaton-level impact was in 1908 in Siberia. Not many of us were alive then and nobody’s been killed since, so it’s hard to identify with.

Easterbrook quotes the odds as 10% per century “of a dangerous space-object strike” somewhere on Earth. The last 200 years indicate — and this blog continues to document –that the next international race to space will begin within 5 to 10 years (See The Forecasts). Fortunately, a space-strike that could “kill millions” is very unlikely in the next few years, and that’s probably the only way in the short term to focus national attention on this issue.

What do the last 200 years teach us? (For more see The Forecasts or The Articles.) Great human explorations, macro-engineering projects (MEPs), and major wars cluster around extraordinary economic booms every 56 years or so. Interestingly, the great explorations display a geographically logical sequence (from the most accessible unknown areas to the least accessible): NW America (Lewis & Clark), Equatorial Africa (Dr. Livingstone), Polar Regions (Peary et al.), Moon (Apollo).

By analogy with the California Gold Rush following Lewis & Clark by 5 decades, we would expect increased human operations in Earth-Moon space (e.g., solar power satellites) while astronauts explore Mars (the next logical exploration target in the sequence above). The U.S. and others are already planning Moon bases by 2020, and by next year, tourists will begin paying for short vacations in space (the new space “gold” rush!); so the ramp-up to this expected Moon/Mars activity is already visible. When asteroid impacts become widely perceived as a threat to civilization, their mitigation will benefit from this expanded Earth-Moon space scenario.