Welcome to the Carnival of Space!
The July 31, 2008 Edition (# 65)
It’s the first time 21stCenturyWaves.com has had the pleasure of being your host.

Enjoy the view…

The Bad Astronomer invites you to discover why there are no green stars…

Music of the Spheres writes about solar power satellites and about how this idea is starting to get even some mainstream media attention…

The Space Cynics highlight the macroeconomic storm that they predicted starting to unfold, and how it’ll sweep away NASA’s manned space program.

Space for Commerce enlightens us about about NASA turning fifty…

A Mars Odyssey offers Wyoming letters to an exterrestrial audience…

Out of the Cradle expands his look at space fiction for juveniles with stories of the High Frontier from the last two decades…

Kentucky Space is honoring Randy Pausche…

Catholic Sensibility focuses on the end of the age of the eye…

Phoenix Pictures Gallery unearths some jewels of Mars…

A Babe in the Universe introduces us to Lunar Science, Part 1…

Free Space reminds us that Saturn’s moon Titan really has the goods….

Colony Worlds shows how an Israeli desalination plant may point to iron on Mars…

What’s Up Astronomy describes catching Friday’s total solar eclipse at 3:24 AM…

The Planetary Society Weblog has solid proof of liquids on Titan…

Starts With A Bang reveals that some stars do more than twinkle…

Orbiting Frog fulfilled a longstanding ambition….

Space Feeds recommends Star Wars Episode 1…

Altair IV analyzes robotic Mars orbit rendezvous….

Centauri Dreams bets on an an interstellar mission (unmanned, flyby in nature) before 2025…

Simostronomy will tell you everything you ever wanted to know about the North Star…

Astroengine offers an intriguing way to explain gamma-ray events….

Next Big Future takes you on a tour of thermoelectrics and space…

CollectSPACE illustrates how an Astronaut’s son draws an insignia with inspiration from father, mother and Leonardo da Vinci…

Astropixie appreciates the simplicity of Friday’s total solar eclipse…

And finally, 21st Century Waves asks: What do Apollo, the Panama Canal, and John McCain have in common?

TO CARNIVAL BLOGGERS: Thanks for your patience. Please alert me to any errors.
Thanks to Fraser Cain of Universe Today for inviting me to host.

This is a list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below.

Although the bi-weekly State of the Wave posts are very popular, the lists below include only Daily Wavelet posts.

The timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) All-Time Favorites (the first daily post was published on 5/11/08), and II) Favorites over the Last 7 Days. To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

Both lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.

Both lists are updated every other week on Friday afternoons.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 7/26/08

I. ALL-TIME — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08
2) Is Obama the Next ONE? — 5/15/08
3) The U.S….Leviathan or Left Behind? — 5/21/08
4) The Way MEPs Really Work — 6/16/08
5) McCain and the Republican Panic — 6/6/08

II. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) What Do Apollo, the Panama Canal, and John McCain Have in Common? — 7/20/08
2) The Mackinac Bridge…A Spectacular 1950s Secondary MEP — 7/18/08
3) 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08
4) How Great Explorations Really Work — 7/10/08
5) Major Wars Threaten Future Space Initiatives — 7/12/08

The Daily Telegraph (London, UK) reported yesterday that Apollo astronaut Edgar Mitchell definitively stated his belief that UFOs exist. In a phone interview, the former Apollo 14 moonwalker claimed that extraterrestrials have visited Earth many times. Mitchell, who has a doctorate in astronautics from MIT, also claims this has been covered up by the U.S. government for 6 decades; naturally NASA denied any knowledge. He’s scheduled to appear soon on a Larry King Live to explore these views.

Opinion polls going back decades have consistently shown about 1/2 of the American public believes UFOs are real and have actually come here. Dr. Mitchell’s message is reminiscent of the 1950s when UFO “waves” were reported, movies carried the ET message (e.g., “Day the Earth Stood Still”), and interest in manned space exploration was increasing.

As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, when Moonbases, international competition in space, and the possibility of alien life, begin to take center stage again, the public may insist that all information about UFOs be revealed by government sources. As the 2015 economic boom elevates the public to higher Maslow heirarchy levels, the need to explore and know the truth increases.

Actually Mitchell’s UFO claims are not new; I remember him saying similar things at least 15 years ago. But I must admit frustration with those who ridicule him for it. Mitchell is exactly the kind of guy who could have inside information — NASA Apollo astronaut, test pilot, Navy Captain, MIT doctorate — if it exists.

As an astronomer who’s never seen a UFO myself, I’m impressed with the people who’ve talked with me privately, who have. I’m also impressed by the number of engineers in the aerospace industry and even academic astronomers who believe UFOs are worthy of scientific study. Probably the best book on scientific ufology is by Stanford physics professor Peter Sturrock, The UFO Enigma: A New Review of the Physical Evidence.

Actually the public is generally unaware of the considerable antipathy between the SETI community and the UFO researchers. Both groups believe intelligent space aliens are out there, but the SETI folks are convinced they can’t travel interstellar distances to come here, while the UFOlogists believe they already have.

As we approach the next race to space and the public refocuses on things extraterrestrial, maybe this time we’ll find out who’s right!

While celebrating the first manned Moon landing 39 years ago, Sunday’s USA Today (7/20/08, by Dan Vergano), painted a bleak picture of a NASA in transition and human trips to Mars as far-future things. Unfortunately, it fits the profile of a world still 5 – 7 years from the next Maslow Window (see below).

Our long-term approach to 21st Century space forecasting is based on the concept of a “Maslow Window”, in which major, rhythmic, twice-per-century economic booms do two things: 1) each fuels the societal affluence required to spur large-scale technology and engineering activities, and, more importantly, 2) each creates widespread ebullience by briefly elevating society to the higher levels in Maslow’s hierarchy. Ebullience briefly creates an atmosphere of social well-being and confidence vital to undertake and support large, complex, risky, expensive, multi-year programs and explorations.

This powerful confluence of affluence and ebullience is seen only infrequently over the last 200 years, when major economic booms triggered the four great explorations: Lewis and Clark, Dr. Livingstone in Africa, the Polar Expeditions, and Apollo Moon.

But we’re not there yet.

NASA’s Vision for Space Exploration — featuring a return to the Moon by 2020 and Mars later –is a reasonable strategy, but according to John Logsdon (George Washington University), at this point, “Neither the White House nor Congress … seems to care!”

Well surprise…surprise, we have a lame duck president, an active presidential campaign, and a variety of other issues (e.g., budget, war) that are attention grabbers. And also, the economic stresses are still with us and are interrupting the “greatest global economic boom of all time” as described by Fortune magazine in July, 2007. When the boom returns in a few years — which it always does, over the last 200 years — the 2015 Maslow Window will start to swing open.

Speaking of the campaign, according to USA Today neither candidate is leading the charge into space, yet. Obama wants a debate on NASA’s goals, and McCain officially supports human Mars missions, but wants to freeze federal spending. But it’s not really fair to attack either of them. We should ask ourselves: In the 1960 presidential campaign, what did John F. Kennedy say about sending people to the Moon? And he rapidly became the greatest exploration and technology president of all time … so far.

International space powers will help the U.S. resolve the issue of what to do next in space — either by a Sputnik-like shock or by forming a global space agency — and then the new president (either candidate) will step up to the plate. However, long-wave timing suggests this may not happen until 2013 – 2015.

In the meantime, Lennard Fisk (University of Michigan) hits a homerun when he states, “The real problem is that NASA needs to be tied to a real, overriding national priority, such as protecting the planet from asteroids…Otherwise, NASA will just limp along.”

That’s the way life is when you’re 5 – 7 years from your Maslow Window…!

21stCenturyWaves.com is again happily participating in …
…the Carnival of Space (#64).
If you’d like to sample a number of excellent space-related weblogs, please click here

The Carnival is run by Fraser Cain, publisher of Universe Today.

(Published at the Gerald R. Ford International Airport, Grand Rapids, MI)

Last weekend I was able to stop by American Apparel at the Art District in Santa Ana (California).

To see American Apparel, Click amapp.jpg

I wanted to check out their line of spacescape shirts, which are pretty much just crew neck tees with an abstract starry horizon splattered on it.

To see Rachel’s shirt, Click starshirt.jpg

Although these shirts are not groundbreaking in the world of fashion or space exploration it is an indicator that the human fascination with the cosmos is still ever present.

To see how great Rachel looks in her shirt, Click

On an unrelated note, I look sooooooooo cute in the raspberry spacescape shirt!

Every other Friday the State of the Wave summarizes specific progress toward the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window and movement toward real, near-term space colonization. The focus is on events and trends from around the world of long-range significance, especially in the context of the 10 Wave Guides.

Most of the news from the last 2+ weeks points toward a a developing world scenario that’s potentially reminiscent of pre-Sputnik 1950s times, including increased international capabilities and competition in space. The scenario could become competitive and near 2013 produce a Sputnik-like shock for the U.S., although a Grand Alliance for Space, cooperatively involving all global space powers, is also possible.

If near-term movement toward a global space organization like Interspace is observed, that will signal a Grand Alliance is taking shape. Otherwise a more competitive, Sputnik-style global interaction may become ascendant.

For example, Futron Corporation published their 2008 Space Competitiveness Index in which, “Systemic and competitive forces threaten U.S. space leadership.” acording Futron president Joseph Fuller, Jr.. This comes on top of a recent AP report (7/17/08) that budget problems will preclude a 2013 rollout date for NASA’s new moon rocket; it will slip to 2015.

The eerie, retro pre-Sputnik 1950s feel of today’s State of the Wave is enhanced by the American public’s seeming lack of concern either about the Shuttle’s 5 year gap (starting at 2010) or potential space competitors like China.

Looking into the 2020s, there’s good news and bad news about a potential major war. The University of Maryland’s Peace and Conflict 2008 reports that battle fatalities in major conflicts have dropped since 1946. And the Human Security Report Project documents a recent, significant decline in terrorist events. This must be balanced against the fact that every Maslow Window of the last 200 years has been afflicted by a major war, that’s breached global peace and security and directly or indirectly terminated great explorations.

Impressive activity in Non-Space Macro-Engineering Projects(MEPs) continues to indicate our approach to the 2015 Maslow Window. For example, a recent Airbus Advertising Supplement in Wall Street Journal (7/14/08) states that, “This year will see an acceleration of funding into some seriously fast aircraft programs.” Accordng to Alan Bond of Reaction Engines (a UK company), “The long-term demand for supersonic and hypersonic aircraft will depend on political will,” including China’s interest in establishing fast air routes to North America and Europe.

By the way, the Chicago Tribune last week suggested there might be parallels between President Theodore Roosevelt and John McCain. But their reliability is suspect because they forgot to mention Roosevelt’s huge connection with the Panama Canal — the greatest pre-Apollo MEP of the last 200 years! However, we see more parallels between McCain and Dwight Eisenhower (than with Roosevelt), and — based solely on long-term economic and social trends — see McCain favored this November, and a John F. Kennedy-like candidate (Obama?) favored in 4 or 8 years.

As a Senator from Massachusetts campaigning for the U.S. Presidency in 1960, John F. Kennedy visited this stunning 1950s Macro-Engineering Project (MEP): the Mackinac Bridge in Michigan.

To see JFK and Michigan Governor Williams on the Mackinac Bridge in 1960, Click jfkmac.pdf
(See Mackinac Bridge by Mike Fornes)

JFK himself was just warming up.

Indeed, he was less than a year from setting in motion some of the most powerful exploration and technology symbols of all time: namely the Apollo Moon program.

Because he initiated the Apollo program — both the greatest Great Exploration and the greatest MEP in history — President Kennedy can rightfully be considered the Thomas Jefferson of his time (for Lewis and Clark, a Great Exploration) as well as the Theodore Roosevelt of his time (for the Panama Canal, an MEP). Revealingly, all three were president during the same portions of their respective economic booms (i.e., the Maslow Windows) during the 56 year energy/economic wave.

Last Monday the Chicago Tribune (Jill Zuckerman, 7/14/08) suggested there are parallels between John McCain and President Theodore Roosevelt that might explain why McCain sees Roosevelt as a “soulmate.” Aside from the obvious military connection, McCain admires Roosevelt’s vision for America in the 20th Century. Shockingly, the Tribune article fails to even mention the Panama Canal — the greatest pre-Apollo MEP of the last 200 years — nor Roosevelt’s quintessential role in it.

This weblog continues to test the hypothesis that the key reason Jefferson, Roosevelt, and Kennedy had many similar opportunities, accomplishments, and interests was because they all governed at similar times during the major, rhythmic, twice-per-century economic booms that produce affluence and ebullience (i.e., Maslow Windows), and invariably result in Great Explorations, MEPs. and sadly, major wars.

This similar timing, relative to their economic waves, of the 3 presidents means their electorates — although widely separated in time (about 160 years) — would have been subject to a similar economic and social framework. For example, Theodore Roosevelt took office in 1901, twelve years before his energy cycle peak in 1913. But McCain, if elected, will take office in 2009, a full 16 years prior to the next energy peak in 2025. This economically significant 4 year difference means that McCain will not experience the relative economic boom that greeted Jefferson, Roosevelt, and Kennedy when they took office; McCain’s ebullient Exploration/MEP agenda — if he has one — would have to wait 4 more years. Indeed, in 4 or 8 years is when long-term trends suggest the next JFK-like president will be elected.

This also suggests that parallels between McCain and Roosevelt may be overestimated. Instead, we continue to see impressive economic, political, and military parallels between McCain and Dwight D. Eisenhower. Because Eisenhower was elected one full 56 year cycle ago, and assuming that long-term economic and social trends are relevant to the electorate today, John McCain — the most Eisenhower-like candidate — should be favored this November.

Speaking of the Carnival of Space…!

CARNIVAL OF SPACE IS AGAIN LIVE: 21stCenturyWaves.com is again happily participating in the Carnival of Space (#63). If you’d like to sample a number of excellent space-related weblogs, please click HERE. The Carnival is run by Fraser Cain, publisher of Universe Today.

The Mackinac Bridge has connected the lower peninusula with the upper peninsula of Michigan since 1957, the same year that the 1st race to space began with the Soviet launch of Sputnik.

The bridge is a stunning example of pre-Apollo ebullience and impressive state-of-the-art technology in a 1950s secondary Macro-Engineering Project (MEP). Although a bridge at this location had been discussed since the 1880s, when the growing emotional and financial ebullience of the mid-1950s intersected with the engineering brilliance and vision of Dr. David Steinman, the Mackinac Bridge became a reality.

Construction actually began in 1954, about 5 years before the opening of the Apollo Maslow Window (men first landed on the Moon in 1969). Total cost was about $ 1 B (current $). Given the world-class technological challenges of severe and changeable winter weather (wind, ice) — that dwarf those of the Golden Gate built in 1937 — the bridge is a marvel and was designed by New York engineer Dr. David Steinman.

During his interview for the position, Dr. Steinman was asked what would happen if a ship loaded with iron ore crashed into the bridge; his ebullient response was, “The boat would sink with a serious loss of life.” That was the right answer, and needless to say, he got the job; See Mackinac Bridge (2007) by Mike Fornes.

This week I experienced a near-perfect weather day at the Mackinac Bridge and took this picture (and others) of what is still an amazing structure, especially if you attempt to cross it during high winds! These views are from Mackinaw City looking north.

To see Bruce’s beauty shot of the Mackinac Bridge, click mac11.jpg.

The Mackinac Bridge’s 5 mile length replaced the Golden Gate Bridge as the longest suspension bridge in the world. Steinman actually designed the bridge to withstand winds up to 600 mph. Not to worry, the highest wind ever measured on the bridge was only (!) 124 mph in 2003.