Jul 05 2008

State of the Wave, Friday July 4, 2008

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell at 11:18 pm under State of the Wave

Every other Friday the State of the Wave summarizes specific progress toward the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window and movement toward real, near-term space colonization. The focus is on events and trends from around the world of long-range significance, especially in the context of the 10 Wave Guides.

The last two weeks have featured remarkable activity supporting the notion that the State of the Wave is robust and dynamic toward the 2015 Maslow Window. This momentum is due to government and commercial activities reflecting long-term trends as well as the accelerating U.S. presidential campaign.

Buzz Aldrin led the charge recently by declaring it’s time to invest in NASA or risk losing America’s leadership in space for the rest of the century; that’s a long time, by the way! He’s especially disturbed about the 5 year Shuttle gap starting in 2010, and feels that the Chinese could win the race back to Moon, or maybe even Mars. Although he didn’t use the term, he’s talking about a Sputnik-like shock for the West — one possible mode for the next race to space. Buzz pledges to personally educate each presidential candidate as to what’s a stake.

Speaking of McCain and Obama, Intrade.com’s clients believe there’s a 60.5% probability that Obama will win in November and 30.5% chance of success for McCain, while Gallup‘s opinion polls show a “modest” advantage for Obama of 47% to 43% over McCain, of registered voters during 6/30 – 7/2. To the extent that long-term economic and military trends are significant, it still appears to us that McCain has an advantage, but the campaign is very young. Aviation Week and Space Technology magazine’s editor-in-chief calls McCain “…a known but feared quantity.” and Obama “…a blank slate.” Whatever the outcome of this election, and despite its current economic challenges, the U.S. is likely to play a large role in the next race to space. More to come this week.

What superlatives are left to describe the very positive state of human spaceflight (e.g., ISS) and space science (e.g., Phoenix Mars lander)? In particular, Japan has superb accomplishments in both areas and has demonstrated the type of international cooperation that all countries will aspire to as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window and contemplate a global space organization.

Pre-Maslow “ebullience” is clearly evident in the Panama Canal Expansion project (and many other non-space MEPs) and in plans for space tourism in Russia and Japan. Russia has a new agreement with an unnamed private entity (possibly Space Adventures) to build a Soyuz especially for tourists; trips begin in 2011 if you want to make reservations. Also starting in 2011 is an opportunity in Japan to get married in space. Cost is $ 2.2 M and involves Rocketplane.

Recently, each State of the Wave has shown that if you like technology- and space-related ebullience, and the long-term prosperity and human expansion they bring — this is increasingly your kind of world!

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