The July issue of one of my favorite journals — Journal of the British Interplanetary Society — has an elegant, deep, very theoretical article by Milan Cirkovic on the motives behind space colonization by advanced technological civilizations (ATCs). Although a fascinating approach, the article also propagates a few common misconceptions that this weblog seeks to dispell.

He contrasts his “Empire State” model, which envisions ATCs spreading out into the Galaxy in basically a “Star Trek” fashion, with what he calls the “City State” model where expansion is hard and the “optimization of all activities…is the existential imperative.” The article argues that galactic expansion by ATCs is very unlikely.

Cirkovic suggests that a typical City State-style ATC might use the resources of neighboring planetary systems, “…by bringing resources back home instead of truly colonizing them.” Actually, I was guilty of suggesting exactly that at the Lunar Bases & Space Activities conference (See Cordell, 1985), where I proposed mining the moons of Mars and retrieving their waters to the Moon and LEO for transportation and industrial uses. Even worse, I also suggested that this example of interplanetary commerce might fund the long-term exploration and colonization of Mars. That puts me squarely in the Star Trek/Empire State club of interplanetary expansionists; by the way if you didn’t know that already, you really haven’t been paying attention to this weblog!

Weblog space precludes me from a detailed commentary on Cirkovic’s article, but let me give you the flavor. For example, one argument against the Empire is “Lack of Motivation.” Even their star running out of thermonuclear fuel is dismissed as unmotivating for ATCs. Having insufficient or too much energy soon-or-later gets the attention of any ATC (the parallel with current oil prices comes to mind!) and is a “Survival” program, not necessarily related to galactic expansion.

Cirkovic also suggests that galactic expansion simply costs too much, is unethical because other worlds may be inhabited even by low-level forms of life (a sort of Star Trek-style “Non-Interference Directive”), that Empire-style expansion fosters militarism (e.g., like Star Wars), and that the Fermi Paradox shows that nobody else has done it yet, unless you believe in UFOs. This kind of logic can be used to argue against almost anything, but let me comment on cost.

How much is a new planet worth? We’re contemplating the rebith of our civilization in its extraterrestrial form! Try a cost-benefit analysis of that. Better yet, let’s make it easier and scale it down: has anyone ever done a cost-benefit analysis of having a child…prior to the event? Can you imagine a world without children?

The last argument Against Empire is perhaps the weakest: the “History of Humanity.” If we ignore the last 200,000 years of human exploration, only then does a comment like this make sense, “…after the solar system is effectively technologized, most of the rationale for the long-range space travel will be dissolved (for instance the fear of planet-wide ecological cataclysm).” In fact, the last 200 years show that humans are clearly fascinated by Great Explorations whether they have obvious strategic value (e.g., Lewis & Clark) or whether they do not (e.g., Polar expeditions); and the same is true of Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs).

Survival comes first, but exploration is like a long-term societal “life insurance” policy — economically, technologically, and even spiritually. That’s probably why Harvard philosopher Alfred North Whitehead once said, “Without adventure society is in full decay.”

Hope everyone’s having a great July…

Here are a few important Announcements:

1. CARNIVAL OF SPACE IS LIVE: 21stCenturyWaves.com is again happily participating in the Carnival of Space (#62). If you’d like to sample a number of excellent space-related weblogs, please click HERE. The Carnival is run by Fraser Cain, publisher of Universe Today.

2. BRUCE ON VACATION: For a week or so I’ll be on the west coast of Michigan (White Lake) visiting mother, sister, families, others…but I’ll be posting as usual! Also, I can’t resist the opportunity to visit and image the Mackinac Bridge — a 1950s secondary MEP of immense economic and historical value. I expect to make a stop in Chicago and may even materialize in Indianapolis next weekend for their tennis tournament.

See you online here as usual!

In addition to the expansive joy of Great Explorations from Lewis & Clark to Apollo, and stunning Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) like the Panama Canal, the last 200 years also teach us one sobering fact: Each Maslow Window is also associated with a tragic, major war (e.g. W. W. I).

And sadly, the 2020s are unlikely to be an exception.

For example, the early 20th Century Maslow Window (1903-1913) was one of the most ebullient, productive decades in history. I highly recommend Jim Rasenberger’s new book America 1908; it was an amazing time “…of boundless imagination — everything was bigger, better, faster, and greater than ever before.” President Teddy Roosevelt sent the Great White Fleet on a show tour around the globe, as a precursor to his leadership of the greatest MEP of the last 200 years (until Apollo): the Panama Canal. Admiral Robert Peary and many others began their long, arduous (in some cases, deadly), globally enthralling treks to both the north and south poles. Some 50 years later, reaching the north pole was still considered to be one of the top 100 historical events of all time. Not even to mention the technological ebullience of the Wright Brothers flight and the New York to Paris automobile race!

The zeitgeist of the Polar Maslow Window was perhaps best expressed by a couple of 1960s historians, “To a visitor from Mars it must have appeared that the Western world in 1914 was on the brink of Utopia,” (see Cordell, 1996). Tragically, it all came screeching to a halt with World War I.

The Apollo Maslow Window (1959-1969) was even more ebullient. According to historian Elizabeth Cobbs Hoffman, “For the first time in human history, a majority of people in one of the largest countries on earth could have all of their needs and most of their desires met on demand.” However, the heating up of the Vietnam War in 1968 hurt the spirit of the Peace Corps and terminated the Apollo Moon program; the last three planned Moon landings were canceled by President Nixon.

So what does the future hold? The Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) of the University of Maryland has published Peace and Conflict 2008, which shows global trends in wars from 1946 to 2005 (by J. Joseph Hewitt). 98% of violent conflicts since 1946 show a flat trend at about 80,000 annual deaths. However, the other 2% – represented by 5 especially lethal wars (including Korea and Vietnam) – show an average decline of 3600 annual fatalities per year since 1946, with an mean of one major conflict every 12 years.

The bottom line is that roughly once-per-decade major wars have continued since 1946 but have a downward trend in battle deaths. And during the last 200 years, a major war always occurs at the end or shortly after a Maslow Window (between 2020-2025+). The possibility of a major war is the biggest threat to the peace and security of the world in the 2020s and has the potential to force postponement of Moon and Mars explorations and MEPs to sometime after 2071, the opening of the next Maslow WIndow.

Thanks again to E.P. Grondine for ventilating some key ideas that relate to the unique long-term approach of 21stCenturyWaves.com.

Over the last 200 years (see Cordell, 2006), Great Explorations (and Macro-Engineering Projects; MEPs) are not accidents and do not happen at random times. They cluster around peaks in the 56 year energy cycle that coincide with major economic booms. The explorations become “great” not only because they open new geographic sites (e.g., arctic) to human scrutiny, but because large, international audiences of people become riveted by them.

In this model, the assertion of anthropologists that humans are by nature explorers — because of their 200,000 year history of exploration and expansion — is adopted. In the last 200 years, the explorer’s impulse can’t often be indulged by typical individuals because of economic and security (Maslow) pressures. However, during the twice-per-century major economic booms, widespread affluence elevates society to the higher levels of Maslow’s heirarchy. Thus for a brief period (called a “Maslow Window“), society reaches a semi-rational (almost giddy) state of “ebullience,” where Great Explorations are not just favored by most people, but seem almost irresistable.

However, ebullience rapidly decays as the economic boom slows, or as a major war (which typically occurs at these times) threatens peace and security.

Back to E.P. Grondine:
“Space launch costs are high, and likely to remain high, … Realistically, (and sadly) a likely date (for manned Mars) would be about 2030-2035. The only chance for manned Mars flight in my lifetime ended with the collapse of the Energia storage shed.”

While Grondine is correct about launch costs and heavy launch vehicle issues, manned Mars expeditions also appear to be a casualty of the rapid decay of ebullience; i.e., Maslow Windows usually linger less than a decade. Attempting to do both a Lunar Base program and a Manned Mars program sequentially in the same Maslow Window (between 2015 and 2025) will be impractical, unless a more-or-less independent human presence on the Moon or Mars can be established. In principle, this would allow the deep space base to continue operations as the Maslow Window closes.

Continuing with Grondine:
“…you don’t seem to have considered that Antarctica is easier to exploit than space.”

Polar regions are classic examples of Great Explorations. Both poles were reached by 1911. Little science was done but the sheer adventure enthralled the world. In his time Admiral Peary was the celebrity equivalent of Neil Armstrong. Up to now, the collective judgment of humanity has been to avoid large-scale colonization or exploitation of the polar areas, to establish international scientific stations there, and then move on.

That’s why during the 1960s Maslow Window, President Kennedy did not propose sending a mission to exploit the polar areas or anywhere else on earth, he chose to go to the Moon. It was the next obvious target that would globally demonstrate America’s technological prowess (Apollo was also an MEP), as well as revitalize education and society by activating raw human exploration passions…that have been hard-wired into us for 200,000 years.

The Washington Post reports this morning (Marc Kaufman, 7/9/08) in a front page article that the U.S. has a plethora of competitors in space and that it’s losing global “dominance” in this arena. Joseph Fuller, Jr., president of Futron Corporation, concludes that, “Systemic and competitive forces threaten U.S. space leadership.”

Many countries have access to space themselves, choose their own astronauts, run their own robotic planetary programs, and some even have plans for bases on the Moon — the new status symbol of growing space powers.

According to the Post, this growing global competence in space is exacerbated by the 2003 Columbia disaster and the widespread perception that NASA is underfunded relative to its goals. Plus the real killer is the 5-year Shuttle gap when the U.S. won’t be able to launch its own astronauts to the space station; however, polls show that the potential seriousness of this has not yet reached the American people, although Buzz Aldrin has publicly drawn attention to it recently.

As an American space enthusiast, it gives me no pleasure to report such information, but frankly, it’s following closely the pattern of Great Explorations and MEPs over the last 200 years, and is especially reminiscent of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window.

One very possible forecast that has appeared on this site is an international replay of the 1957 Sputnik shock, because America’s complacency and errors are making the U.S. vulnerable to growing space programs around the world. Based on the timing of the 1950s, the next international race to space might be triggered near 2013, but the way things are evolving, it might come even sooner.

Thanks to E.P. Grondine for interesting comments this morning on “10 Reasons China is Good for Space,” particularly with respect to the comet/asteroid threat issue.

For example, “…Neither “football game” nor “cold war’ is the correct analogy, as neither accounts for cometary and asteroid impact . The currently emerging facts about asteroid and comet impact have severe implications for all existing frameworks of political-economic analysis…”

‘Football game’ and ‘cold war’ are functional approaches that competing groups could use to organize their assets for an important task. In a pro football game there are high stakes and a large engaged audience, but there are also rules, schedules, and a framework of cooperation within which the competition occurs. In ‘cold war’ there’s little cooperation and the atmosphere is generally hostile. So doing an asteroid mitigation program in either program mode (especially ‘cold war’), might be inefficient and uncoordinated.

Much closer cooperation would be possible with a truly global space organization like “Interspace” that may be formed after 2013 as a result of Maslow programs and/or asteroid/comet threats.

In an earlier post (“Mars vs the Moon…”) I contrasted ‘Survival’ vs. ‘Maslow’ programs. Asteroid or comet mitigation is one example of a ‘Survival’ program; it might have the same strategic priority as war. A ‘Maslow’ program can be either a Great Exploration (e.g., Apollo) or a Macro-Engineering Project (e.g., Panama Canal). The key difference is Survival programs are threat-driven (just like a traditional war) and so can occur at any time. However, Maslow programs are easier to forecast (see this Weblog!) because they are driven by major, twice-per-century economic booms that elevate society to high levels in Maslow’s heirarchy; this momentarily creates a societal mindset — “ebullience” — highly supportive of major technology/exploration initiatives.

Grondine continues, “China’s space leadership will be pursuing CAPS (the Comet and Asteroid Protection System) like a laser, with major decisions to be undertaken in 2016. China will seek international partners … the reactions of Japan, Europe, the US, Russia … to these invitations to cooperation are unclear.”

I’m not aware of China’s interest in asteroid mitigation so I emailed Rusty Schweickart this morning. Rusty indicated that, although China is a member state for Action Team 14 (NEO), he’s unaware of any specific interest in NEO deflection. But obviously it would be very welcome! Incidentally, Grondine’s 2016 timeframe is consistent with the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window.

Every other Friday the State of the Wave summarizes specific progress toward the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window and movement toward real, near-term space colonization. The focus is on events and trends from around the world of long-range significance, especially in the context of the 10 Wave Guides.

The last two weeks have featured remarkable activity supporting the notion that the State of the Wave is robust and dynamic toward the 2015 Maslow Window. This momentum is due to government and commercial activities reflecting long-term trends as well as the accelerating U.S. presidential campaign.

Buzz Aldrin led the charge recently by declaring it’s time to invest in NASA or risk losing America’s leadership in space for the rest of the century; that’s a long time, by the way! He’s especially disturbed about the 5 year Shuttle gap starting in 2010, and feels that the Chinese could win the race back to Moon, or maybe even Mars. Although he didn’t use the term, he’s talking about a Sputnik-like shock for the West — one possible mode for the next race to space. Buzz pledges to personally educate each presidential candidate as to what’s a stake.

Speaking of McCain and Obama, Intrade.com’s clients believe there’s a 60.5% probability that Obama will win in November and 30.5% chance of success for McCain, while Gallup‘s opinion polls show a “modest” advantage for Obama of 47% to 43% over McCain, of registered voters during 6/30 – 7/2. To the extent that long-term economic and military trends are significant, it still appears to us that McCain has an advantage, but the campaign is very young. Aviation Week and Space Technology magazine’s editor-in-chief calls McCain “…a known but feared quantity.” and Obama “…a blank slate.” Whatever the outcome of this election, and despite its current economic challenges, the U.S. is likely to play a large role in the next race to space. More to come this week.

What superlatives are left to describe the very positive state of human spaceflight (e.g., ISS) and space science (e.g., Phoenix Mars lander)? In particular, Japan has superb accomplishments in both areas and has demonstrated the type of international cooperation that all countries will aspire to as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window and contemplate a global space organization.

Pre-Maslow “ebullience” is clearly evident in the Panama Canal Expansion project (and many other non-space MEPs) and in plans for space tourism in Russia and Japan. Russia has a new agreement with an unnamed private entity (possibly Space Adventures) to build a Soyuz especially for tourists; trips begin in 2011 if you want to make reservations. Also starting in 2011 is an opportunity in Japan to get married in space. Cost is $ 2.2 M and involves Rocketplane.

Recently, each State of the Wave has shown that if you like technology- and space-related ebullience, and the long-term prosperity and human expansion they bring — this is increasingly your kind of world!

…What I mean is: Haven’t you ever gone into a bookstore and seen the glut of books insisting that America is declining, it’s toast — that we should put a fork in it? So have I. So has Thomas F. Madden, a history professor at Saint Louis University. In fact, Professor Madden’s seen so many such books that one time, “…I began to wonder whether my dollars would be worth anything by the time I hit the checkout counter,” (Wall Street Journal, July 3, 2008).

However, there certainly is pain now at the gas pump, but that problem’s susceptible to a political solution this November. And today, the Wall Street Journal Online even reports an optimistic note from Fed governor Frederic Mishkin, “While the current turmoil is not yet over, we can see some signs of improvement.”

Despite today’s slow economic growth, the long-term picture — based on economic trends over the last 200 years — is much brighter. Indeed, the last 200 years featured unparalleled, rhythmic economic booms twice per century, that were much closer to Fortune magazine’s observation — “The Greatest Economic Boom Ever” 7/23/07 — than to the gloom-and-doom specialists in the bookstores. Skeptics should note that the rhythmic timing and monotonic growth of major economic booms during the last 200 years were not altered by a variety of major economic shocks, including the Civil War, the Great Depression, W.W. I, and others. And the next Maslow Window is scheduled for 2015.

Professor Madden emphasizes the simple fact that, “The U.S. is not only the wealthiest and most powerful country on Earth now, but in all of history. There’s never been a better time or place to be alive than America in the 21st century,” (Empires of Trust: How Rome Built — And America is Building — A New World; Out later this month.)

So why is fear-mongering so popular today? Madden thinks that, like Rome at its height, “Prosperity and security are boring. Nobody wants to read about them.” And when Rome actually did start to slide in 3rd century AD, doomsday predictions were much less popular and harder to find.

So in a few hours when you’re enjoying Independence Day fireworks, fear not. Remember that a variety of long- and short-term trends — in the economy, technology, and society — indicate we’re on the edge of a recovery that’s leading to a Golden Age in Space (and on Earth) powered by an unparalleled 1960s-style economic boom. Sooner than you think you’ll be enjoying your first trip into space, your children will plan their honeymoon at the Moon, satellites will beam endless, clean energy to Earth from space, simple lifeforms will be discovered on Mars, and human civilization will continue its expansion into the cosmos!

Happy 4th of July!

Happy 4th of July to Everyone in the Universe.

Here are a few important Announcements:

1. NEW CONTRIBUTING EDITOR: We’re very pleased to announce that Dr. Anny Wong has joined 21stCenturyWaves.com as a Contributing Editor. Her considerable expertise includes technology, politics, and international relations, especially in Asia and the Pacific region. Please read more about her at About Us.

2. CARNIVAL OF SPACE IS LIVE: 21stCenturyWaves.com is again happily participating in the Carnival of Space (#61). If you’d like to sample a number of excellent space-related weblogs, please click HERE. The Carnival is run by Fraser Cain, publisher of Universe Today.

3. LOCAL CELEBRATIONS BEGIN SOON: Although not really an important announcement (!), it is true: Local Independence Day celebrations will start to explode soon. A little later we’ll begin by playing some mostly-frivolous tennis with our friends; of course we’ll be keeping an eye on the Wimbledon finals this weekend. That will lead to some serious grilling of hamburgers, hot dogs, and a bunch of other stuff! When it gets dark, the real fireworks begin; still haven’t decided where to go yet… Later tonight, may even relive one of my fav movies, Independence Day.

Hope your Holiday is cosmic!

Japan is a key global leader in 21st Century space, and its potential for the future has never been brighter. Having recently captured global headlines again when its Kibo Module — “the Lexus of space labs” according to Shuttle Commander Mark Kelly — was delivered to the International Space Station (ISS), it promises to take ISS science to new heights. At 37 feet long, it’s 13 feet longer than the U.S. Harmony Lab and exceeds Europe’s Columbus by 14 feet.

Japan’s sophisticated style of international cooperation (e.g., on ISS) is the model of what we expect to see grow and flourish towards the 2015 Maslow Window as humans move to establish permanent bases on the Moon and as we accept the challenge of Mars.

Having been the 3rd nation to send a spacecraft to the Moon in 1990, Japan continues that illustrious tradition with its Kaguya (SELENE) mission currently in lunar orbit. Billed as the largest and most sophisticated lunar mission since Apollo, it is engaged in a full scientific study of the Moon, including the first HDTV imaging from lunar orbit, in preparation for Japanese astronauts and a base on the Moon in the 2020s.

Japan’s Moonbase concept.

At the same time, Japan’s Hayabusa spacecraft utilized low thrust, xenon-propelled ion engines to approach the near Earth asteroid Itokawa (named after the father of Japanese rocket development) for an attempted sample acquisition. Its ambitious planned planetary exploration missions include the Mercury “BepiColombo” Exploration mission jointly with the European Space Agency, and the Venus Climate Orbiter.

To coordinate all of this impressive operational and planning activity, in 2003 Japan formed its new space agency, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), that integrated activities from the Institute of Space and Astronatical Science (ISAS), the National Space Development Agency (NASDA), and the National Aerospace Laboratory (NAL).

This year in late May, Japan’s Basic Space Bill became law. According to Setsuko Aoki of Keio University (AJISS-Commentary, 26 June 2008), the new space law should clarify the military use of Japanese space assets and expand space industry. In particular, it updates Japan’s official 1969 understanding of the use of space “for peaceful purposes only” to mean “non-aggressive” (not “non-military); this is consistent with the pacifist spirit of Japan’s Constitution, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, and the interpretation of the rest of the world. However, Japan’s Constitution still prohibits it from engaging in “collective self-defense” for example, in cooperation with the U.S..

Professor Aoki thinks the solution is to, “…reach a comprehensive strategic agreement between Japan and the U.S. covering both military and civilian use of space…” She suggests that one place to start would be to discard the 1990 Japan-US Satellite Procurement Agreement — concluded under vastly different economic circumstances. In effect, this would allow “…Japan to develop its own satellites and strengthen its space capabilities.” The goal is to build on Japan-US partnerships in ISS, GPS standardization, and lunar exploration to expand further their cooperative activities in space.