Comments on: Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, Friday 9/12/08 http://21stcenturywaves.com/2008/09/14/forecasting-the-next-20-years-in-space-state-of-the-wave-friday-91208/ TECHNOLOGY BOOMS AND HUMAN EXPANSION INTO THE COSMOS Mon, 08 Mar 2010 23:30:29 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9 hourly 1 By: WTF http://21stcenturywaves.com/2008/09/14/forecasting-the-next-20-years-in-space-state-of-the-wave-friday-91208/comment-page-1/#comment-82 WTF Wed, 15 Jul 2009 12:04:34 +0000 http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2008/09/14/forecasting-the-next-20-years-in-space-state-of-the-wave-friday-91208/#comment-82 If 1969 was the energy peak, then what happened to "spectacular decade of economic success" OR the "major war"? 1970-1980 was a decade of Watergate,government incompetence, recession, Jimmy Cater's famous "national malaise" , the Iranian hostage crisis, bungled rescue, etc. Do these esteemed economists ever look down from their Ivory Towers long enough to see what the world was really up to while they pick the fuzz out of their navels? <strong>Hi WTF, Thanks for your comment. Remember that the Maslow Window -- the "spectacular decade of economic success," if it is as long as a decade -- always comes <em>before</em> the 56 year energy cycle peak, which was in 1969. The big war was Vietnam that began for the U.S. in 1960 but intensified in 1968. War deaths included about 60,000 for the U.S. and estimated millions for the Vietnamese, the end of President Lyndon Johnson's presidential career, and deep political divisions in the U.S. which are still not entirely healed. It also signaled the beginning of the end of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window as the last 3 Apollo missions (18, 19, and 20) were canceled. You are right about the 1970s. They were completely different than the ebullient, early 1960s. Many of the things you mention are described in Andreas Killen's excellent 2006 book, <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/1973-Nervous-Breakdown-Watergate-Post-Sixties/dp/1596910593" rel="nofollow">1973 Nervous Breakdown</a> -- Watergate, Warhol, and the Birth of Post-Sixties America</em>. If you compare Killen to <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/All-You-Need-Love-Spirit/dp/0674016351" rel="nofollow">All You Need is Love</a> -- The Peace Corps and the Spirit of the 1960s</em>, by Elizabeth Cobbs Hoffman, you'll be amazed at how different the 1960s and 1970s were, and how fast the 1960s Maslow Window crashed. Best regards, Bruce</strong> If 1969 was the energy peak, then what happened to “spectacular decade of economic success” OR the “major war”? 1970-1980 was a decade of Watergate,government incompetence, recession, Jimmy Cater’s famous “national malaise” , the Iranian hostage crisis, bungled rescue, etc.
Do these esteemed economists ever look down from their Ivory Towers long enough to see what the world was really up to while they pick the fuzz out of their navels?

Hi WTF,

Thanks for your comment.

Remember that the Maslow Window — the “spectacular decade of economic success,” if it is as long as a decade — always comes before the 56 year energy cycle peak, which was in 1969.

The big war was Vietnam that began for the U.S. in 1960 but intensified in 1968. War deaths included about 60,000 for the U.S. and estimated millions for the Vietnamese, the end of President Lyndon Johnson’s presidential career, and deep political divisions in the U.S. which are still not entirely healed. It also signaled the beginning of the end of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window as the last 3 Apollo missions (18, 19, and 20) were canceled.

You are right about the 1970s. They were completely different than the ebullient, early 1960s. Many of the things you mention are described in Andreas Killen’s excellent 2006 book, 1973 Nervous Breakdown — Watergate, Warhol, and the Birth of Post-Sixties America. If you compare Killen to All You Need is Love — The Peace Corps and the Spirit of the 1960s, by Elizabeth Cobbs Hoffman, you’ll be amazed at how different the 1960s and 1970s were, and how fast the 1960s Maslow Window crashed.

Best regards,
Bruce

]]> By: Carnival of Space 71 - .Astronomy http://21stcenturywaves.com/2008/09/14/forecasting-the-next-20-years-in-space-state-of-the-wave-friday-91208/comment-page-1/#comment-81 Carnival of Space 71 - .Astronomy Tue, 14 Apr 2009 09:16:58 +0000 http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2008/09/14/forecasting-the-next-20-years-in-space-state-of-the-wave-friday-91208/#comment-81 [...] 21st Century Waves is forecasting the next 20 years in space [...] [...] 21st Century Waves is forecasting the next 20 years in space [...]

]]> By: GK http://21stcenturywaves.com/2008/09/14/forecasting-the-next-20-years-in-space-state-of-the-wave-friday-91208/comment-page-1/#comment-80 GK Tue, 14 Apr 2009 02:44:26 +0000 http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2008/09/14/forecasting-the-next-20-years-in-space-state-of-the-wave-friday-91208/#comment-80 Why does each energy peak have to have a major war? Would it not simply be an economic war? What major war started in 1969? The Cold war was already underway, and most of the casualties in VietNam had already happened. The decade after 1969 arguably had less warfare than the decade before 1969. Also, the Great Depression and WW2 appeared to be in the middle of the cycle, not at the ends. If the GD + WW2 period was 1929-45, 56 years after that comes to 1985-2001, which was actually a boom. Is it possible that the 56-year window is lengthening, because life expectancies are rising? In the past, the 56-year window was due to very few people living long enough to remember the prior crisis 56 years ago. Today, that cycle may be longer. <strong>Hi GK, I enjoyed your questions so much that I created a new post to address them. It's at: http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2009/04/21/why-wasnt-there-a-great-depression-and-a-world-war-between-1985-and-2001/ Best regards... Bruce</strong> Why does each energy peak have to have a major war? Would it not simply be an economic war?

What major war started in 1969? The Cold war was already underway, and most of the casualties in VietNam had already happened. The decade after 1969 arguably had less warfare than the decade before 1969.

Also, the Great Depression and WW2 appeared to be in the middle of the cycle, not at the ends. If the GD + WW2 period was 1929-45, 56 years after that comes to 1985-2001, which was actually a boom.

Is it possible that the 56-year window is lengthening, because life expectancies are rising? In the past, the 56-year window was due to very few people living long enough to remember the prior crisis 56 years ago. Today, that cycle may be longer.

Hi GK,

I enjoyed your questions so much that I created a new post to address them.

It’s at: http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2009/04/21/why-wasnt-there-a-great-depression-and-a-world-war-between-1985-and-2001/

Best regards…
Bruce

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