The Big Question is what to do after 2010 when the Shuttle is retired? Many ask if it makes sense to rely on a guy like Vladimir Putin for a ride to the Space Station.

For Putin’s violent little adventure in Georgia, President Bush has sought appropriate punishment and Secretary of State Condi Rice has said “There can be no business as usual…” As a result, the President’s major initiative to increase US-Russian collaboration on nuclear energy production is at least temporarily dead in the Senate (Wall Street Journal, 8/23/08). And, although supported by US Senator Bill Nelson (FL), a waiver that would allow the US to buy launch services to ISS from Russia (required because they sell nuclear technology to Iran) must be passed ASAP (e.g., by January) by a reluctant Senate.

One result of the long-term approach used here at 21stCenturyWaves.com, is the realization that as we approach a Maslow Window (coming in 5 – 7 years), international tensions will probably increase; sadly, the last 200 years shows they always have. And in this dynamic international environment, while collaborations with potential geopolitical opponents are usually productive, becoming dependent on them for key space services is not.

But the good news is that SpaceDev of Poway, CA is here to potentially save the day. They want to stack their Dream Chaser piloted spacecraft on an Atlas V launch vehicle — a modernized descendant of the early Atlas, developed by my former company General Dynamics, that launched the first American — John Glenn — into orbit in 1962. (Incidentally, I remember little about my first day on the job in the early 1980s at the Kearney Mesa plant in San Diego, except being given a tour of the Atlas assembly facility. A life-altering experience for a total space guy like myself!)

A view of the spectacular General Dynamics Atlas assembly line in Kearney Mesa (San Diego);
Click .

SpaceDev’s Frank Taylor and Russell Howard reported recently (AIAA-2008-7837) on preliminary trade studies and analysis of this Dream Chaser/Atlas V concept for servicing missions to the Space Station and judge it to be “promising.”

The Atlas V includes a dual-engine cryogenic Centaur upper stage and 2 strap-on Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs). Dream Chaser is always a piloted vehicle with 6 crew on a personnel mission and 1 pilot on a cargo mission, with 4000 to 6000 pound payload capability to ISS. Atlas V can enhance payload capability by using up to 5 SRBs. The need for rapid separation and escape during an abort after launch drives their preference for a no-fairing option (surrounding the DC). The DC/Atlas V combination would launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and could use the Shuttle Landing Facility if necessary.

Key remaining issues include achieving human-rating for the Atlas V and aerodynamic controllability of the integrated vehicle. Possible development schedules were not discussed in the AIAA paper and neither was cost, although it is likely to be considerable.

But with a little luck, for 2010, it’s potentially a Dream Chaser come true!

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