The inspirational mid-19th Century Great Exploration of Dr. David Livingstone opened central Africa to the world and has surprising parallels with the 1960s Apollo Moon program, as well as many lessons for future human exploration and settlement of space. The top 10 lessons of Dr. David Livingstone include:

10. Generally considered the greatest and most famous of all explorers in Africa, Dr. David Livingstone (1813-1873) was a medical doctor and Christian missionary born in Scotland. His was perhaps the most unusual Great Exploration of the last 200 years because Livingstone did not go for fame, monetary gain, or national prestige. His goals were altruistic: to end the slavery trade, to be a successful missionary, and to open up central Africa commercially to the world.
Dr. Livingstone’s monumental explorations in central Africa indicate the power of a Great Exploration during a Maslow Window to stir the world. However, as great as Livingstone and all the other Great Explorations of the last 200 years are, they only hint at the extraordinary, unprecendented space activities we’re likely to experience during the next Maslow Window, starting near 2015.

Dr. Livingstone thought Victoria Falls was the “most wonderful sight” he had seen in Africa. Click .

9. Dr. Livingstone’s world-wide fame as a great explorer and humanitarian lives on today even in popular culture (as well as history) over 130 years after his death, and indicates the dimension of his legend. For example, a) Dr. Livingstone appears on the album cover of The Beatles’ Sgt Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band, b) In TV’s Star Trek: The Next Generation, the fish in the background of Capt. Picard’s ready room is named Livingstone after the explorer, c) a video game for the Nintendo Entertainment System is called “Stanley and the Search for Dr. Livingstone,” d) in the 1981 movie Cannonball Run, Burt Reynolds mentions Dr. Livingstone by name, and many others.
Dr. Livingstone’s lasting fame has not been dimished by time, distance, his multi-year disappearance, or his fundamentally altruistic motivations. Indeed, this suggests that pure exploration, for exploration’s sake, is among the most attractive rationales to the global public, and may have implications for future human explorers on the Moon, near-Earth objects, and/or Mars.

8. The financial Panic of 1837 was a major contraction where 40% of the U.S. banks failed and unemployment was at record highs; it lasted 6 years until 1843. According to Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman wrting in 1960, the Panic of 1837 “is the only depression on record comparable in severity and scope to the Great Depression of the 1930s.” Nevertheless, the mid-19th Century Livingstone Maslow Window (roughly 1847 to 1857) opened on time and featured Africa’s most famous explorer (Livingstone), the “technological jewel” of the 19th Century (the Suez Canal), as well as stunning secondary MEPs (including the Great Eastern ship); this Maslow Window’s global ebullience is perhaps best captured by the Gold Rush in the American West (1848 – 1855).
Over the last 200 years, pre-Maslow Window bank panics have not perceptibly affected any Maslow Windows, and may, in fact, have stimulated them somewhat. There were two 19th Century panics (1837 and 1893) both about one decade prior to their Maslow Windows, none in 1949 (post W.W. II) one decade before the Apollo Maslow Window, and one currently in 2008 (8 years before our expected Window). Interestingly, the New York Times (11/30/08) recently suggested that a “deep recession” may have occurred near 1776, 10 – 15 years before the Lewis & Clark Maslow Window. In any case, during the last 200 years, no financial panic has ever delayed or diminished any Great Explorations or MEPs associated with a Maslow Window. With a new U.S. presidential administration highly motivated to ameliorate the current panic, there’s every reason to expect this 200+ year pattern to continue.

7. Although not as formally organized as the elaborate Apollo astronaut training in the 1960s, Dr. Livingstone’s early field experiences over nearly a decade were excellent “training” for his future transcontinental adventures. Initially influenced to go to central Africa in 1840 by a South African missionary, he was funded by his church as he moved from village to village spreading his faith, learning the languages and customs of local peoples, curing the sick, and expanding the infrastructure. Livingstone began to explore new lands and by 1849 The Royal Geographical Society had already awarded him a monetary prize and a gold medal for his discovery of Lake Ngami in the Kalahari Desert.
There is no substitute for significant training and appropriate experience in an environment as similar to one’s future exploration arena as possible. This goes for Livingstone in Africa and future astronauts on the Moon and Mars.

6. Between 1852 and 1856 — at the height of his Maslow Window — Dr. Livingstone made his stunning exploratory 4,300 mile transcontinental journey across central Africa including his amazing discovery of Victoria Falls (which he named after Queen Victoria I). It was the “most wonderful sight I have seen in Africa,” wrote an awestruck Livingstone after he carefully and dangerously measured its height as 360 feet. As he began to explore the Zambezi River area, Livingstone became convinced that opening up legitimate trade routes along this river would remove economic rationales for the slave trade. He returned to London as a national hero, went on a lecture tour, wrote his famous book, and energetically sold his exploration, commercial, and social justice agenda to an eager public. “Livingstone’s fame was so great that (during the) ‘Farewell Livingstone Festival’ on February 13, 1858, just before the explorer’s departure for a second Zambezi expedition, 350 of England’s most prominent citizens” attended, according to Dugard (2003).
Great explorers always have maximum societal impact during their Maslow Windows. Livingstone illustrates the pattern of the last 200 years that has included such timely luminaries as Lewis & Clark, Peary, Amundsen, Neil Armstrong, and others. They all point to the anticipated 2015 Maslow Window as another pivotal opportunity for human expansion.

5. In 1858 Dr. Livingstone triumphantly returned to Africa as the official head of the government-supported “Zambezi Expedition.” However, the British government recalled the failed endeavor in 1863. Although Livingstone had perfected the “small” expedition style of moving through central Africa, he was unaccustomed to managing the much larger Zambezi exploration entourage that he found himself leading. Plus, he became ill for the first time in 1862 partly due to the accidental loss of vital anti-malarial medicine into the Zambezi River. Then, tragically his wife died while traveling with the expedition. “I cannot tell you how greatly I feel the loss,” Livingstone wrote in 1862, “it feels as if heart and strength were taken out of me — my horizon is all dark,” (Dugard, 2003). As if that were not enough, a crucial portion of the Zambezi River — which Livingstone had not previously explored — was simply commercially unnavigable. This triggered the collapse of Livingstone’s anti-slavery strategy as his worst-case scenario materialized.
Dr. Livingstone’s Zambezi expedition reminds us that accidents, unexpected events, and even loss of life are sometimes a challenging part of a Great Exploration, and explorers must be trained to expect the unexpected. For example, when an oxygen tank exploded on Apollo 13 on the way to the Moon, the astronauts lost their normal source of electricity and water, but due to superb planning, determination, and creativity, everyone survived. Livingstone-style tenacity and Apollo-style independence from Earth will be absolutely required on interplanetary spaceflights.

4. British newspapers branded Livingstone’s Zambezi expedition a “failure” although considerable science (e.g. botany, medicine, ethnography) and many geographic discoveries (e.g., discovered Lakes Ngami, Malawi, and Bangweulu, plus Victoria Falls) had been accomplished. However, the Zambezi River was unfit for commercial navigation and Livingstone’s expedition was victimized by intertribal war and slave raids. In effect, “the journey was a highly publicized bust,” (Dugard, 2003). At this low point even the great Livingstone had difficulty finding financial support to continue his African explorations.
After Dr. Livingstone’s stunning African successes, the professional and personal toll experienced by the greatest explorer of his day on the downside of his Maslow Window in 1864 is reminiscent of the Apollo program. After the stunning 1st human landing on the Moon in 1969, public support waned (except for Apollo 13) until the last 3 Apollo Moon missions (18-20) were finally canceled by President Nixon. The bottomline is: As the momentary ebullience of a Maslow Window declines, public support for Great Explorations and associated MEPs rapidly erodes.

“Dr. Livingstone, I presume?” Click .

3. Amazingly, even after the Zambezi setback, Dr. Livingstone’s celebrity was so great that he was able to attract private funding to return to Africa. But by 1871 — during his search for the “source of the Nile” — Livingstone had actually lost contact with the outside world for several years. However, international interest in Livingstone was so high that a New York newspaper sent Henry M. Stanley and an expedition of 170 men to find him. Stanley wasn’t entirely sure that Livingstone wanted to be found and it took him 8 months to do so. Then, in Ujiji village on the north shore of Lake Tanganyika, one of the all-time famous greetings took place, “Dr. Livingstone, I presume?”
The Livingstone/Stanley story is impressive testimony of the enduring power of Dr. Livingstone’s global fame as an explorer, scientist, and humanitarian. It’s important to remember that Livingstone wasn’t an American and yet an American newspaper — reflecting their vicarious obsession with Livingstone’s adventures — sent Stanley to locate him. Few people could physically accompany Livingstone on his African explorations, but many were riveted vicariously to his adventures. The same was true of the polar explorers and the crews of Apollo, and will be for future lunar and interplanetary explorers.

2. On Christmas, 1871 Dr. Livingstone’s fever had dropped so he and Stanley decided to have a Christmas feast just like at home. Stanley had “used some very powerful arguments in favor of my going home,” but even Livingstone’s daughter Agnes admitted that, “Much as I wish you to come home, I had rather you finished your work to your satisfaction rather than return merely to gratify me.” Livingstone regarded her with pride as a “chip of the old block.” Dr. Livingstone eventually declined Stanley’s invitation to return to civilization. Fully reprovisioned, he continued his fruitless search for the source of the Nile; Livingstone died in 1873. At considerable risk to themselves, Livingstone’s African crew carried his body for 5 months to the East Africa coast where it was shipped to his burial place in Westminster Abbey, London. Also in 1873, the Vienna stock market crash in Austria began the Long Depression which spread to the United States that fall, and lasted for 6+ years.
The Panic of 1873 is a member of a class of financial panics that occur 16 – 18 years after the economic peak of a Maslow Window; they include the panics of 1819, 1873, 1929, and 1987. (The Panic of 2008 is a class of panics that preceed a Maslow Window.) The last 200 years show that any lingering ebullience and interest in Great Explorations/MEPs associated with the last Maslow Window collapse as the panic deepens.

1. Despite his failed anti-slavery Zambezi strategy and his inability to find the source of the Nile, Dr. Livingstone is widely regarded as the greatest and most famous explorer of Africa. His legacy was polished by Henry Stanley and later positive events that are traceable to Livingstone’s efforts as an explorer, educator, and missionary. For example, the curse of African slavery was finally eradicated due to the inspiration and writings of Livingstone; a month after Livingstone died, England threatened a naval blockade of Zanzibar which forced the Sultan to close its slave market forever.

While a period of european colonization did occur after his explorations, Dr. Livingstone’s name was not stricken from African streets, buildings, and towns, after independence. In fact, many Africans educated in schools established by Livingstone’s followers were leaders in national independence movements in central, eastern, and southern Africa. “Contrary to many western beliefs, Livingstone is greatly respected and admired by a large number of Africans — a sure testimony to the man who spent the majority of his life among them,” (Mackenzie, 1993).

While traveling nearly 30,000 miles over 1/3 of Africa he displayed the best of human values — sacrifice, service, curiosity — and pioneered the opening of central Africa to commerce and science.
Livingstone teaches us that exploration is a profoundly exciting activity with unlimited potential for both scientific and self-discovery. As a result of exploring the most unknown parts of the world he inspired people to care about his beliefs, even after his death. When future explorers seek to expand human civilization into the cosmos and financial and other challenges arise…
…We should — in the spirit of Dr. Livingstone — simply ask: “How much is a new planet worth?”

The Space, Policy, and Society Research Group at MIT recently released their whitepaper on “The Future of Human Spaceflight.” It’s good, but I have to admit that initially I was a little worried. It brought to mind the brilliant technologist, MIT icon, and 1960s presidential science advisor Jerome Wiesner. According to Walter McDougall (1985), Wiesner “denounced Project Mercury” (Apollo’s first step into space) and suggested it could result in a international public relations debacle or even astronaut death. If Wiesner had been making the decisions it’s likely no American would have landed on the Moon, but President John F. Kennedy’s leadership and vision changed the course of history.

Sometimes leadership in technology or science does not translate into a broader vision for the future of humanity, but happily that is not the case here. This MIT Report is basically a call to re-examine, update, and expand Bush’s Vision for Space Exploration in the context of a new U.S. president and a world rapidly evolving toward the 2015 Maslow Window…a 1960s-style golden age for exploration and technology.

MIT recommends that the International Space Station should be used by the U.S. and its international partners through 2020 to support human spaceflight to Mars. Click .

Their recommendations include:

1) The Shuttle should be retired as planned in 2010 as soon as ISS missions are completed. The Report cites “political concerns about relying on Russia” to launch American astronauts to the Station and notes that Russia’s performed well so far on its ISS launch commitments. They don’t comment on how the increasing Cold War-style tensions in Europe will influence U.S. leaders on this issue.

2) The International Space Station — our $ 100 B “National Laboratory” — should be utilized through 2020 and not retired in 2016 (the current plan). Extra time is need to obtain data on effective medical countermeasures for long-term human spaceflights to Mars, and to develop other space technologies with our international partners.

3) The Bush Vision of Moon exploration should be clarified and expanded so that it is “more, and not less ambitious.” The concerns include scale and timing of lunar base development, appropriate Congressional support for human spaceflight, and ensuring the Constellation transportation architecture’s capability to support interplanetary goals. Unlike the Planetary Society vision, the MIT Report does not advocate deemphasizing lunar surface infrastructure in favor of a Mars program thrust, but it does recommend the Moon vs. Mars issue be specifically examined. This is important because current Bush Vision timelines and long-term trends appear to relegate human Mars missions to the 2nd half of the 21st Century.

4) International partnerships should be expanded because they are the optimal way to focus U.S. and global assets on an ambitious, long-term program of human exploration of the solar system. The MIT Report makes several specific suggestions, including expanding the U.S.’s space activities with Russia, China, and India, and most importantly, expanding the meaning of “U.S. leadership” to include “foresight in building new relationships and collaborations.” This is consistent with movement toward the development of a globally coordinated, multi-decade program of human expansion into the cosmos.

Having just shared its important, insightful recommendations, it’s also true that the MIT Report begins on a shaky note by dilly-dallying in seemingly endless Wiesner-style issues such as: a) “Why fly people into space?”; the responses to that one have been cataloged for over 20 years, b) Science is not the primary objective of human spaceflight; yes that’s true, c) Flying a machine in space is less expensive and safer than people; uh-huh, right again,…

And d) my personal favorite: “No historical evidence, no social science evidence, and no genetic evidence prove that human beings have an innate, universal compulsion to explore.”

Okay. Who said there is? Unfortunately, use of the word “prove” makes the statement almost useless. What can anyone actually “prove” about the motivations of humans or groups of humans, especially in the past? (Incidentally, do you know why your spouse behaves the way he or she does? Can you “prove” it?)

What’s important is observations of the types of human behavior that appear repeatedly over significant intervals. That’s what this weblog is about: 1) to recognize the historical fact that — over the last 200 years –Great Explorations, Macro-Engineering Projects, and large wars cluster together about every 55 to 60 years, near the peaks in major, twice-per-century economic booms, 2) to develop a model that explains these seemingly diverse exploration and technology events as being fundamentally driven by long-term swings in the economy, and 3) to check the model’s forecasts for the next 15 – 20 years for technology, space, and society by using current events and trends from around the world.

Over the last decade+, this model has experienced considerable success explaining and forecasting events associated with our approaching Maslow Window. It appears that if you know the “Why” of going into space, you also know the “When”; either one points to the other. The predictive power of this model is based on the presence of long waves in the economy that are well-documented over at least the last 200 years.

Ironically, one of the pioneers in the study of long waves was the famous MIT professor (e.g., inventor of random access memory), 1989 National Medal of Technology winner, and National Academy of Engineering member Jay Forrester. In his System Dynamics model — the most sophisticated simulation of the U.S. economy of its time — a “surprise discovery” appeared directly from the model: The existence of a long economic wave with a 50+ year period. Recent work that supports MIT Professor Forrester’s key insights into long waves includes a 2005 NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Portugal on long waves and global security, Brian J. L. Berry’s volumes, Hugh Stewart’s 1989 book on 56 year energy cycles, the correlation of Strauss & Howe generational cycles with long waves, and even the simple observations of historical events, macroeconomic data, and current trends of this weblog.

This is an updated mid-monthly list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites over the Last 7 Days, and II) All-Time Favorites (the first daily post was published on 5/11/08).

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 12/19/08

I. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Lessons Peary & Amundsen Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 11/29/08
2) State of the Wave, Politics Focus — Sunday, 11/9/08 — 11/10/08
3) The Next ‘Space President’…Will It Be Caroline? — 12/14/08
4) China and Russia Take the Smart Road to Mars! — 12/4/08
5) 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08

II. ALL-TIME — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08
2) How Great Explorations Really Work — 7/10/08
3) Major Wars Threaten Future Space Initiatives — 7/12/08
4) NASA’s Challenging Future..! — 8/1/08
5) Taikonaut to Take a Walk — 6/13/08

This is a recent sample of the interesting ways 21stCenturyWaves.com is being portrayed on the web. Apologies if I couldn’t mention you this time.

Thanks to everyone who’s visited 21stCenturyWaves.com.

Colony Worlds
Thanks to Darnell Clayton at ColonyWorlds.com for linking to:
“The Moon is not Enough…!”

Galacting Mining Industries
Thanks to Richard Westfall for featuring this site.

Centauri Dreams
Enjoyed the comments on: “How We Could Spot Nearby Space Aliens”

HobbySpace.com
Thanks to Clark S. Lindsey for featuring:
“China and Russia Take the Smart Road to Mars!”

Maria Write Now
Thanks to Maria Lavis for linking to:
“Spaceweek in New Mexico!”…plus everything Virgin Galactic.

Journey Into Oblivion
Thanks for linking to this site.

Carnival of Space 83
Thanks to Ian Musgrave for linking to:
“China and Russia Take the Smart Road to Mars!”

21stCenturyWaves.com exists to test the idea that long waves in the economy have enabled Great Explorations (GEs) and Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) over the last 200 years, and that this model provides a powerful portal into the future; see The Forecasts. Historically, GEs and MEPs come in brief, ebullient pulses — called Maslow Windows — separated by 55 to 60 years during huge economic booms.

Thomas Jefferson’s vision opened up the West in 1804. Click .

Interestingly, there is usually an important leader like Theodore Roosevelt (for the Panama Canal) or Thomas Jefferson (for Lewis & Clark) around who plays a key role. During the last Maslow Window — in the 1960s — it was President John F. Kennedy who provided Camelot-style symbolic leadership for the Apollo Moon program. This weblog suggested previously that President Kennedy should be considered both the Thomas Jefferson and the Theodore Roosevelt of his time because of his seminal association with not only the greatest GE of all time, but also the greatest MEP — both in Apollo.

Theodore Roosevelt’s vision opened the Panama Canal in 1914. Click .

Prior to the onset of the financial Panic of 2008 in September, this blog suggested that Barack Obama seemed to possess both the flexibility to be able to recognize the approach of the 2015 Maslow Window, and the charisma to lead the U.S. and the world into it. However, given the depth of the current recession, it appears unlikely that the recovery will occur before his potential second term. Because a major economic boom always powers the affluence and ebullience of a Maslow Window — and the recession may last 4 – 6 years — the next Maslow Window may not open much before 2015 (i.e., the expected date based on the last 200 years).

President Kennedy’s vision opened up the Moon for all humankind in 1969. Click .

So who else might be the next “Space President”…the next JFK? It will be someone who’s mindful of JFK’s space legacy and who could advocate a large, visionary, international project. And most importantly, this individual would need JFK-like charisma to provide symbolic leadership for the next race to space. Although highly speculative now, we suggest that it might be Caroline Bouvier Kennedy, President Kennedy’s 51-year-old daughter.

Our speculation is motivated by the December 5th Associated Press report indicating the Governor of New York discussed the possibility with Ms. Kennedy of filling Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat when she becomes Secretary of State. Reaction has been very enthusiastic in Democratic quarters suggesting they perceive Caroline as the charismatic embodiment of JFK’s legacy. If she were to be appointed, and demonstrated political success, it would give her a high probability of being able to be elected on her own in 2012. This would give Caroline a total of 8 years in the Senate before she could choose to run for President in 2016 — exactly one 56-year energy cycle after her father was elected; this blog has predicted that the next Space President will be elected in 2016 (or possibly as early as 2012) based long wave timing.

Caroline is a graduate of Harvard and received her law degree from Columbia. She worked at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City and has run the Office of Strategic Partnerships in NYC’s Dept of Education. She and her family live in Manhattan; her son John is named after President Kennedy. She has devoted most of her efforts toward the arts and humanities, and education. So the question becomes, what would it take for her to recognize that the many benefits from the space program could be a bridge between her past issues and interests and moving to a national platform, supporting the country in a broader context? Indeed, the contribution of the space program to today’s issues of education, energy, medicine and the environment is considerable. In particular, the space program has been a catalyst attracting students to science and math and engineering. These professionals contribute not only to our national space ventures, but provide a skill base for solutions to the energy crisis, as well as applying their skills to biomedicine or understanding climate change and global warming – leaving the world a better place for future generations.

Partly due to her highly publicized White House childhood, Caroline is closely associated with President Kennedy. As the sole survivor of her immediate family, she has been willing to participate in activities that recognize the contributions of her dad. For example, in 1967 she christened the aircraft carrier USS John F. Kennedy. In 1990, she was co-founder of the Profiles in Courage Award (named after her father’s book); it was given in 2002 to representatives of many key groups who saved lives during the 9/11 attacks. On January 27, 2008, Caroline’s Sunday New York Times op-ed piece endorsing Obama appeared; it was entitled, “A President Like My Father.” So stepping up to her father’s leadership and legacy in space – seen by many as one of the most significant accomplishments of the United States in the 20th century and one that clearly elevated the stature of the US in the world — could easily be a concept she might embrace.

In 2016, Will Caroline Kennedy expand on her father’s spectacular legacy in space? Click .

We also note that Caroline would be 59 if elected President in 2016, compared to her father’s 43; both would have spent 8 years in the Senate. It is not obvious to us that her age relative to JFK’s at inauguration would negatively affect public perceptions of her charisma. In fact, we suspect her more mature style of charisma and close association with her father’s legacy would be sufficient to make her the next JFK-like Space President; The One who will lead the U.S. and the world into the globally transformative space initiatives expected during the next Maslow Window.

At this technology-obsessed weblog, ebullience is a technical term associated with a short-lived but almost irresistible attraction to Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) and/or great explorations. Exclusively triggered by major twice-per-century economic booms, ebullience — in its widespread, societal form — is the hallmark of spectacular Maslow Windows punctuating the last 200 years, such as the 1960s Apollo Window.
The Shanghai Tower project is evidence of ‘early ebullience’ Click .

However, high-end clinentele, dynamic societies, and/or groups especially excited about a particular MEP, sometimes exhibit “early ebullience” significantly before a Maslow Window, thus signaling its approach. Such is the case now with the Shanghai Tower (Associated Press, 11/28/08), a 2,073 foot high, $ 2.2 B tower planned for completion in 2014 — just in time to celebrate the 2015 Maslow Window!

How ebullient is the growing Shanghai Tower? Try this quote: “I don’t think it’s just pure ego,” according to Jun Xia, the brilliant Shanghai-born architect who designed its spectacular 120-degree spiral shape.

And it’s no accident that the Shanghai Tower is the city’s tallest structure. Bidding on the Tower was deliberately delayed until 2006 when the height of the Japanese-built Shanghai World Financial Center became set!

The ebullient Shanghai Tower is not just about a beautiful, elegant design, it’s also functional. Rainwater collected on the distinctive funnel-shaped roof supplements the plumbing system, and wind turbines power its external lighting. And an innovative “double skin” design promotes thermal stability.

In fact, even the Shanghai Tower’s ebullience is purposeful, according to Gu Jianping of the Shanghai Tower Construction & Development Co., “Launching construction at this time will help boost Shanghai’s confidence in fighting the financial crisis.”

In today’s global recession, China and the Middle East are among the few places in the world where Shanghai Tower-style projects can flourish. According to AP, the world’s tallest structure — Burj Dubai — recently surpassed 2300 feet and is expected to exceed one kilometer (3,281 feet) when completed.

How long will this economic situation continue? According to Arthur Gensler, chair and founder of Gensler Architecture that created the Shanghai Tower, “China is a wonderful market. It will be one of the world’s great opportunities for the next 3 to 5 years.” Shortly after that the rest of the world will rejoin the party as the 2015 Maslow Window swings open.

…according to the great Harvard philosopher Alfred North Whitehead (1861-1947).

And Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal (12/4/08) agrees: “America needs its frontier spirit,” especially in our current economic crisis. “The greatest danger…is that the United States will lose its historic appetite for risk. The mood now is that risk-taking got us into this mess. Risk, though, is the quintessential American trait that built the nation — from the Battle of Bunker Hill to the rise of the microchip.”

Famous frontiersman Daniel Boone faced risks… Click .

Because there is little adventure without risk, Henninger is effectively concerned about the “full decay” of civilization warned of by Whitehead. Yet despite our current economic crisis, the macroeconomic and historical patterns of the last 200 years clearly show we are poised on the edge of the next golden age of exploration, technology, and prosperity, which we call a Maslow Window. For example, the financial Panic of 1893 led to an estimated 18% unemployment in 1894 which the country recovered from by 1899. A few resilient years later the U.S. surged into the ebullient Peary/Amundsen Maslow Window which featured the groundbreaking Wright brothers’ flights, the monumental first successful voyages to the north and south poles, the stunning Titanic (the 1997 film is currently the #1 highest grossing movie of all time), and the visionary leader Theodore Roosevelt plus the greatest macro-engineering project of the last 200 years (until Apollo) — the Panama Canal.

But fear is still everywhere. In today’s New York Times (12/7/08), neuroscientist Gregory Berns, M.D., Ph.D. notes that everyone is scared, and “Fear prompts retreat. It is the antipode to progress. Just when we need new ideas most, everyone is seized up in fear…” Berns recommends that we avoid being a “fearmonger” and even “tuning out media that fan emotional flames.”

…and so did Neil Armstrong. Click .

Do opportunities for success still exist out there? According to The Economist (12/4/08), “Risky assets look more attractive now than they have in ages.” And, “the time for investors to take financial risks is when risky assets offer a sizeable long-term return, not when risk premiums are low.” Berns agrees that “right now there are incredible opportunities to do something differently.” Despite the risk, “If I wait for money to start flowing again, the opportunities will have passed.” Henninger reminds us of famous adventurer Daniel Boone who had his own real estate problems; Boone “went belly-up speculating on Kentucky land. He moved on in 1788 and paid his debts. So should we, without losing sight of the American frontier, where we discovered the rewards of risk.”

I would only add that — over the last 200 years — no financial crisis has ever delayed the opening of a Maslow Window.

This is an updated biweekly list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites over the Last 7 Days, and II) All-Time Favorites (the first daily post was published on 5/11/08).

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
Both lists are updated every other week on Friday afternoons.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 12/5/08

I. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Lessons Peary & Amundsen Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 11/29/08
2) 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08
3) Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, Friday 9/12/08 — 9/14/08
4) State of the Wave, Geopolitical and Economic Focus — Monday, 10/27/08 — 10/28/08
5) National Intelligence Council Report Supports Maslow Window Forecasts — 11/23/08

II. ALL-TIME — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08
2) How Great Explorations Really Work — 7/10/08
3) Major Wars Threaten Future Space Initiatives — 7/12/08
4) NASA’s Challenging Future..! — 8/1/08
5) Taikonaut to Take a Walk — 6/13/08

China and Russia continue preparations to visit Mars’ moon Phobos together in 2009, according to Mars Daily (12/1/08). This unmanned trek is the first joint interplanetary mission between the two major space powers, and will also be the first interplanetary sample return flight from either a moon or a planet.

Twenty-seven km moon Phobos has milli-g surface gravity and countless impact craters, but it’s the key to Mars. Click .

This ambitious, joint Phobos mission is more convincing evidence that the next spectacular Maslow Window looms not that far in our future (expected in 2015). Indeed, Chinese astronomer Yang Liwei already speaks in Maslow Window-style phrases, “Our national strength has risen. It’s a road that we absolutely must travel.” And it’s the smart road too!

It’s the “smart road” to Mars because, every two years, the delta-V — a measure of the propulsive energy required for the mission — from Earth-to-Phobos and return is only about 1/2 the delta-V required for an Earth-to-Lunar-Surface loop! In other words, the shocking fact is that, in energy terms, it’s actually easier to get to Phobos than it is to our own Moon! When I first realized this at General Dynamics, it became the centerpiece of our humans to Mars strategy.

Although one of the darkest objects in the solar system, Phobos still has a colorful past, having been thought of momentarily (in the 1950s) as a hollow, artificial satellite apparently orbited by Martians. Better observations of its orbit confirmed its naturalness as well as its mortality: Phobos is condemned by tidal forces to impact Mars in 11 million years.

As a key part of the Sino-Russian Phobos team, Hong Kong Polytechnic University has been developing a small, cigarette pack-sized rock processor that will reduce Phobos’ surface materials to a fine powder for in situ analysis in the Phobos lander. After successfully landing/rendezvousing on Phobos’ milli-g surface, the Phobos Explorer will select rocks and soil for the trip back to Earth for detailed scientific analysis.

While initially scientific, interest in Phobos is also futuristic. Phobos is a low-density, porous world with carbonaceous chondrite composition…and it may have water in some form beneath its surface layer. Everytime I look at Phobos I see a gas station! Pull up your spacecraft, check the tires, clean the windshield, and fill ‘er up with inexpensive propellants from Phobos!

In 1989 General Dynamics Corporation funded a closer look at my fantasy of establishing an interplanetary economy based on water mined at Phobos (and/or Deimos) that’s transported to Earth orbit and/or the Moon depending on where the demand is. Using regular chemical rockets we could deliver 2000 mT of Martian moon waters to Earth orbit each mission; profits/savings versus launches from Earth are in the $ 1.5-3.0 B range. Depending on how much the Phobos Water Plant costs to setup, the breakeven point would be 5 – 10 years from the first mission. Are you working up your 2015 Maslow Window business plan?

The Chinese and Russians are smart to focus on Phobos. It’s the 21st Century key to the colonization of Mars and expansion of humans into the outer solar system.

This is a list of our readers’ favorite posts for November, 2008, based on the number of times each post was visited during November.

For current lists of readers’ favorite posts for all previous months please click HERE.
For updated lists of readers’ favorite posts for the last 7 days and for all-time, please click HERE.

The list below includes both Daily Wavelet posts and the State of the Wave posts.

This list gives only the top 5 favorites in order of reader preference. All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

NOVEMBER, 2008 — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08
2) Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, Friday 9/12/08 — 9/14/08
3) “A United, Global Effort for Long-Term Human Space Exploration?” — Why Not? — 11/08/08
4) State of the Wave, Geopolitical & Economic Focus — Monday 10/27/08 — 10/28/08
5) The New Cuban Space Center and Vladimir Bonaparte — 10/8/08