Bruce’s Abstract
Submitted to AIAA SPACE 2009 Conference and Exposition,
14-17 Sep Pasadena, California

President Obama’s administration has begun an appropriate re-evaluation of U.S. strategy for human spaceflight, especially in the context of economic and other factors. Therefore, it’s useful now to consider policy implications for the Vision for Space Exploration from a variety of factors, including long-term trends.

A variety of long-term indicators – economic, technological, and geopolitical – strongly suggest that a new international space race may take shape during the next 7 – 10 years (Cordell & Hovey, 2008). This unprecedented thrust into space is expected to significantly exceed the scale and scope of the 1960’s Apollo Moon program and will culminate by 2025 in a variety of major activities in space such as Moonbases, tourists in LEO, and possibly humans on Mars.

Cordell (1996) suggested that repetitive patterns in the economy, technology, and exploration over the last 200 years may have predictive power for the 21st Century. In particular, a 55 to 60-year cycle was identified, where macro-engineering projects (e.g., Panama Canal), significant human explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark), and major wars (e.g., Civil War) tend to cluster together near major economic booms. The bottom-line forecast was that the decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog of the 1960s, bringing a global focus on achievement in space exploration and a Camelot-like zeitgeist.

The case for this long-term approach to 21st Century space forecasting was expanded in Cordell (2006) and Cordell & Hovey (2008). For example, the concept of a “Maslow Window” was developed, in which twice-per-century major economic booms do two things: 1) result in wide-spread affluence required to spur large-scale technology and engineering activities, and, more importantly, 2) create societal ebullience by briefly elevating many people to higher levels in Maslow’s hierarchy. Ebullience creates an atmosphere of social well-being and confidence vital to undertake and support large, risky, multi-year programs. The confluence of societal affluence and ebullience is seen infrequently in modern times, when unparalleled booms in economic activity triggered the four great explorations (Lewis and Clark, Dr. Livingstone in Africa, the Polar Expeditions, Apollo Moon) of the last 200 years.

In this paper the implications of long-term trends are examined for three key issues: 1) the Shuttle 5-year gap and the future of international cooperation in space, 2) prospects for human spaceflight to Mars, and 3) the timing of the next race to space.

First, based on safety and cost rationales, NASA currently plans to retire the Shuttle in 2010, and Ares I is expected to come online by 2015. This will create a 5-year gap (or 3 year if Shuttle ops continue to 2012) in U.S. capability to launch astronauts to ISS which NASA plans to fill with the Russian Soyuz. In summer, 2008 this strategy was weakened because of the Russian invasion of Georgia and an increase of Cold War-like tensions. Some have indicated that Russian-US space cooperation has weathered stormy times before, which is true. However, the Sputnik-Apollo era during the Cold War was not one of them (McDougall, 1985).

This is relevant because long-term trends – over the last 200 years – suggest we are heading into a second Cold War (e.g., Lucas, 2008). At the NATO Advanced Workshop in Portugal on Kondratieff Waves, Warfare, and World Security, Goldstein (2006) reviewed his 20+ years of research on long waves and concluded they have “strong predictive power” for economic and geopolitical (e.g., war) variables. Also, Stratfor, a well-known private geopolitical forecasting firm, asserted in 2008 that to envision the future trajectory of a resurgent Russia, “we should consider Cold War history.”

This is not to suggest that the U.S. should limit future cooperation in space with Russia; to the contrary, close cooperation may help reduce future Cold War-like tensions. However, it is prudent that the U.S. not become dependent on a potential geopolitical opponent like Russia – as in the Shuttle 5-year gap — given the history of Sputnik and Apollo, which long-term trends suggest could replay between 2010 and 2015. Indicators for a possible ‘Grand Alliance for Space’ vs. a Sputnik-style of global space exploration are reviewed.

Second, the VSE features a U.S. return to the Moon by 2020 followed eventually by human spaceflight to Mars. Long-wave timing, based on four previous Maslow Windows over the last 200 years, indicates that the next Window will culminate near 2025. Every Maslow Window of the last 200 years has featured a major, international war toward its end; in this case it would be near 2025. For example, the Vietnam War heated up in 1968 (toward the end of the Apollo Maslow Window in 1969) and led to the termination of both Apollo 18 – 20 and human spaceflight beyond LEO after December, 1972.

The MIT Space, Policy, and Society Research Group (2008) suggests using ISS out to 2020 to develop medical countermeasures for long-term human spaceflight to Mars, and to enhance the momentum of international cooperation nurtured by ISS. Thus astronaut safety considerations could limit human spaceflight to Mars to post-2020 timeframes.

The Planetary Society (2008) roadmap asserts that the NASA VSE goal of a human return to the Moon by 2020 may “lead to multi-decade delays in expansion of human activity beyond the Earth-Moon system.” They are absolutely right, although it’s not fundamentally because of programmatic and funding conflicts. They are more on target here: “The national economic situation exacerbates NASA’s budget difficulties and makes it likely that the stated lunar exploration timetable cannot be met.”

Leonard David (2009) quotes author Andrew Chaikin as suggesting that the Apollo Moon program was an “anomaly.” According to Chaikin, “The reason it was an anomaly was that political forces made the Moon our destiny… and all the forces aligned, however briefly. And by the time we got to the Moon, those forces were already starting to diverge.” That’s an excellent description of the rapid decay of affluence-induced ebullience during a typical Maslow Window. In fact, Apollo seemed like an “anomaly” only because the spectacular great explorations and MEPs associated with Maslow Windows are typically separated by 55 to 60 years.

The lack of human spaceflight beyond LEO from 1972 to the present is fundamentally driven by a downswing in the long economic wave. We can expect the same thing to occur after 2025 unless a significant human beachhead is established beyond LEO. In any case, current VSE Moon exploration timing plus long-term trends indicate that human spaceflight to Mars may be relegated to the second half of the 21st century (i.e., after 2070).

Third, the current global recession — triggered by the financial panic of 2008 — has cast a shadow over plans for international Moon exploration and bases by 2020. Current estimates for economic recovery range from just a few years to the early 2020s! However, long-term economic trends suggest the next Maslow Window, featuring the next race to space, will arrive on time (near 2015) despite our current global financial problems.

Indeed, the financial panic of 2008 should not have been a total surprise, if viewed in the context of Maslow Windows over the last 200 years. For example, four of the last five Maslow Windows (including the next one expected in 2015) have been preceeded by a severe financial panic within a decade of their onset..

The 19th century panics lasted about 6 years each. This model suggests we can expect an on-time opening for the 2015 Maslow Window, as does the new Obama administration which is highly motivated to stimulate economic growth. It’s also possible that the global excitement of an approaching Apollo-like decade (starting near 2015) will assist the economy to recover back to the global economic boom of 2007 – which was the greatest ever on record. In any case, over the last 200 years, no Maslow Window has ever been delayed or diminished by a financial panic and recession.

Patterns in long-term trends in the economy, technology, and exploration that have repeated over the last 200 years, have surprisingly important policy implications for the Shuttle, ISS, and Moon/Mars programs, from the near-term through the 2020s. This is useful to NASA for three reasons; because it provides: 1) a framework for long-range planning and a test of specific forecast models, 2) a marketing theme, because space exploration is seen to be the most recent manifestation of the tradition of great explorations that can be traced back to Lewis and Clark; and, they are always the result of major economic booms, and 3) a morale boost, because timing is fundamentally due to long waves in the economy that have reliably influenced great explorations and macro-engineering projects over at least the last 200 years.

Cordell, B. (1996) “Forecasting the next major thrust into space” Space Policy 12, 45.
Cordell, B. (2006) “21st Century waves — Forecasting technology booms and human expansion into the cosmos” Futures Research Quarterly 22, No. 3, Fall.
Cordell, B. and Hovey, A. (2008) Forecasting the next 20 years in space: The new race to space” AIAA-7870, AIAA Space 2008 Conference & Exposition, San Diego, CA.
David, L. (2009) “Return to the Moon: Shaping a new exploration agenda” Aerospace America, January.
Goldstein, J. (2006) “Predictive power of long wave theory, 1989-2004,” In Devezas, T., Ed. Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security, NATO Science Series, ISO Press, Amsterdam.
Lucas, E. (2008) The New Cold War, Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
McDougall, W. (1985) …The Heavens and the Earth, Johns Hopkins Univ Press, Baltimore.
MIT Space, Policy and Society Research Group (2008) “The future of human spaceflight” mitsys@mit.edu
Planetary Society (2008) “Beyond the Moon: A new roadmap for human space exploration in the 21st century” Pasadena,CA.
Stratfor (2008) “Fourth Quarter Forecast 2008” www.stratfor.com

This is an updated mid-monthly list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites over the Last 7 Days, II) Favorites over the last Quarter (3 months) and III) All-Time Favorites (the first daily post was published on 5/11/08).

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 1/17/09

I. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) Marcel Vs. Fermi — Toward A Possible Convergence — 1/07/09
2) A Vision for the Next 100 Years — Courtesy of George Friedman — 1/10/09
3) Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, 9/12/08 — 9/14/08
4) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Wave Forecasts — 10/20/08
5) 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08

II. THE LAST QUARTER — Readers’ Favorites

1) Marcel Vs. Fermi — Toward A Possible Convergence — 1/07/09
2) The 1960s Apollo Maslow Window Was ‘Transformative’ — 10/25/08
3) State of the Wave, Geopolitical & Economic Focus — Monday 10/27/08 — 10/28/08
4) China and Russia Take the Smart Road to Mars! — 12/4/08
5) 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08

III. ALL-TIME — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08
2) 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08
3) Marcel Vs. Fermi — Toward A Possible Convergence — 1/07/09
4) Taikonaut to Take a Walk — 6/13/08
5) Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, 9/12/08 — 9/14/08

ALSO…

…21stCenturyWaves.com is again happily participating in the Carnival of Space, this week hosted by CollectSpace.com. If you’d like to sample a number of excellent space-related weblogs, please click HERE.

The Carnival is run by Fraser Cain, publisher of Universe Today.

President-Elect Obama’s strengths include his John F. Kennedy-like charisma and his flexible approach to issues. Since the election he has added experience in the form of numerous former Clinton personnel to key positions.

However, his challenges are well-known: 1) the economy and 2) national security (e.g., avoiding a 9/11-style attack). The strategic environment also features wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and increasing tensions in Europe reminiscent of a second Cold War with Russia.

In the next year or two, none of these issues will be dramatically affected by the U.S. space program, while the economy and the strategic environment will impact directly on plans for human spaceflight involving the Shuttle, Space Station, Moon bases and beyond.

The bottomline is clear: At least in 2009 and maybe beyond, Mr. Obama’s focus must be on his economic and natonal security agenda, not on NASA’s Vision for Space Exploration (VSE).

Will the Shuttle be retired in 2010 or retained as a jobs program? Click .

Let me briefly highlight how long-term trends over the last 200 years illuminate the world of 2009:

10. Long-term macroeconomic trends over the last 200 years are continuing in the form of the Panic of 2008 and its recession.

Although V.P. Dick Cheney doesn’t think “anybody saw it coming,” the Panic of 2008 should not have been a total surprise. Four of the last 5 Maslow Windows (including the one expected to open near 2015) were preceded by a major financial panic within a decade of the opening of the Maslow Window. Only 1949 was panic-less presumably because of banking reforms passed during the Great Depression and post-WW II ebullience.

The long-term macroeconomic trends of the last 200 years have persisted in spite of such disasters as the Civil War, W.W. I and II, and the Great Depression. Thus, despite our current recession’s severity, there is every reason to believe these long-term trends will continue into the future.

9. The timing of the Panic of 2008 indicates that we are within 7 to 10 years of the next Maslow Window; indeed, no Maslow Window has ever been delayed or diminished by a pre-Window panic.

Both pre-Window 19th century panics began about 10 years before their Maslow Windows and lasted about 6 years each. The Panic of 2008 began about 7-8 years before its expected Maslow Window; if similar in length to the 19th century panics, the current recession should end before 2015 (the expected opening date of the next Maslow Window).

The Great Depression began in 1929 and lasted about 10 years, however it began as a post-Maslow Window panic. Post-window panics tend to develop into much longer, more devastating recessions (e.g., the Victorian Depression, the Great Depression) than pre-Window panics do partly because they occur at a time when the direction of the economy is generally downward (following a major economic boom).

However, the Panic of 2008 began during the unparalleled global economic boom of 2007. The last 200 years show that we will recover into an economic boom at least as good as in 2007.

8. Mr. Obama has warned of potentially a “dramatically worse” economic situation, but estimates of the duration of the recession vary widely.

On January 8 President-Elect Obama spoke of “a bad situation (that) could become dramatically worse,” unless his mammoth spending proposals are passed by Congress. Obama’s public works program is billed as the biggest since the interstate highway system of the 1950s; not coincidentally it occurred about one long economic wave ago, just before the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window.

Private estimates of the current situation include John Mauldin who suggests the recession will last “at least through 2009″ and then we face two years of “muddle through.” He suggests unemployment may continue to rise for 2 more years (to 10+%) and quotes an academic study that claims fiscal policy will not be enough. Although Mauldin sees a very long recession, his forecast is nothing like that of Harry Dent who sees the recession continuing until 2023! Mauldin’s forecast is consistent with macroeconomic trends of the last 200 years; Dent’s forecast isn’t.

7. Because he inherits an economy afflicted by the pre-Maslow Window Panic of 2008 and its major recession, it is unrealistic to expect Obama to embrace a NASA Administrator who’s closely identified with a spectacular program of human spaceflight like NASA’s Vision for Space Exploration.

Last March Alan Stern called Mike Griffin “the best Administrator NASA ever had,” and Griffin certainly reminds me of the great Administrators during Apollo.

However, the Orlando Sentinel reported (on 1/6/09) that Griffin would soon leave NASA. This is in spite of — or maybe because of — his active campaigning to stay as Administrator that featured his unparalleled commitment to the VSE.

6. The 5-year Shuttle gap will require Obama to decide if the Shuttle fleet should be retired as planned in 2010.

NASA plans to hire the Russians to launch U.S. astronauts to the station between 2010 and 2015. However, the approach to a Maslow Window typically features increasing international conflicts like the Russian attack of Georgia last summer. This feeling of an impending second Cold War has complicated NASA’s plans for a timely retirement of the aging Shuttle fleet, based on budget and safety issues.

Our new President may conclude that extending the Shuttle Program is too risky and expensive. If so, Obama may see Shuttle retirement in 2010 as the perfect opportunity for him to showcase his exceptional ability to generate good will and expand productive partnerships around the globe — even with the Russians — especially in a time of increasing international tensions.

Will Mars be eclipsed by the Moon? Click .

5. The United States has no plans for ISS involvement beyond 2015, but long-term strategy for ISS could have important implications for Mars and other human interplanetary missions.

While ISS should be completed in 2010, the U.S. is uncertain about its participation beyond 2015. On the other hand, except for the Shuttle retirement issue, there are no major, near-term ISS decisions required by the U.S.. Still, the U.S. cannot ignore its $ 100 B “National Laboratory.”

Rand Simberg points out that ISS engineering design precludes it from becoming an interplanetary spaceship (!), but there’s no shortage of post-2015 ideas for how to use it in LEO, including possible Chinese participation, and even giving birth to the orbital hotel industry. Although Bigelow Aerospace denies interest in ISS, it’s hard for me to believe that someone somewhere isn’t thinking about using ISS as a hotel test-bed (pun intended!).

The MIT Space, Policy, and Society Research Group suggests using ISS out to 2020 to develop medical countermeasures for long-term human spaceflight to Mars, and to enhance the momentum of international cooperation nurtured by ISS. This would be excellent long wave timing because between 2020 and 2025 is when human missions to Mars are most likely to be financially and politically feasible.

If the U.S. announces that it will not extend its participation in ISS beyond 2015, that could signal the U.S. does not intend to launch human missions to Mars during the 2015 Maslow Window (see Mars, #3 below).

4. It isn’t just the economic and national security framework that suggests Obama may not be able to follow-through on his campaign promise for a 2020 Moon landing, it’s the political signals he’s sending.

In the last 200 years, no great exploration has ever occurred during the financial panic preceeding a Maslow Window. And that trend is very likely to continue. Plus, Jeffrey Kluger describes the friction between Lori Garver of Obama’s transition team, and current NASA boss Mike Griffin. In particular, Garver’s lack of enthusiasm for Ares 1 is an affront to Griffin.

Obama may signal his decision to temporarily deemphasize Moon bases by the NASA Administrator he selects. For example, Obama has reportedly asked former USAF General Scott Gration to consider being NASA Administrator.

Although Gration is loyal to Obama and is obviously a good leader, his direct connection with space appears limited to working with Hans Mark in 1982 when he was deputy Administrator. With little connection to human spaceflight or to the space science community, Gration is a philosophical clean slate — potentially ideal for Obama because of his capability to move NASA in whatever direction the economic and/or geopolitical context allows.

3. NASA’s extensive plans for Moon exploration appear to preclude human spaceflight to Mars in the first half of the 21st century.

The Planetary Society roadmap asserts that the NASA VSE goal of a human return to the Moon by 2020 may “lead to multi-decade delays in expansion of human activity beyond the Earth-Moon system.” They are absolutely right , although it’s not fundamentally because of programmatic and funding conflicts. They are more on target here: “The national economic situation exacerbates NASA’s budget difficulties and makes it likely that the stated lunar exploration timetable cannot be met.”

In Aerospace America for January, 2009, Leonard David quotes author Andrew Chaikin as suggesting that the Apollo Moon program was an “anomaly.” According to Chaikin, “The reason it was an anomaly was that political forces made the Moon our destiny… and all the forces aligned, however briefly. And by the time we got to the Moon, those forces were already starting to diverge.” That’s an excellent description of the rapid decay of affluence-induced ebullience during a typical Maslow Window. In fact, Apollo seemed like an “anomaly” only because the spectacular Great Explorations and MEPs associated with Maslow Windows are typically separated by 55 to 60 years.

Because the 2015 Maslow Window should culminate near 2025 — assuming wildcards do not terminate it earlier — and the U.S. plans to return to the Moon by 2020, this leaves only a few short years (assuming the schedule holds)) to achieve the first human missions to Mars, a very unlikely scenario. And the last 200 years show that the next Maslow Window after 2025 — i.e., the next realistic opportunity for humans to Mars — opens in 2071.

In fact, the national (and global) macroeconomic situation is a predictable consequence of technological, exploration, and military trends that have persisted over at least the last 200 years. Ignorance of them results in disappointments like the abrupt end of the Apollo program. However, in reality they provide a dependable framework within which multi-decade space or technology programs can be structured so they flourish and enable human expansion into the cosmos.

2. As expected during our approach to the 2015 Maslow Window — that’s complicated by a major recession and increasing Cold War-like tensions — key indicators of the strength of international space business are mixed.

For example, government space expenditures globally in 2008 were $ 62+ B. And planned launches during the next decade (i.e., moving into the next Maslow Window) will increase 38% over the previous decade.

However, the prediction market Intrade.com shows declining confidence in Virgin Galactic’s commercial spaceflight business. In response to “Virgin Galactic to send a paying customer into suborbital space (70 mi) on/before 31 December 2010,” their probability of success has dropped by a factor of 2 over the last 5 months: from 60% to 32%.

Another revealing sign of the economic times is Northrup Grumman’s corporate reorganization resulting in their Space Technology group being downgraded together with Integrated Systems into their new “Aerospace” sector.

1. If circumstances prevent Mr. Obama from becoming the next JFK-like “Space President,” who will lead America and the world back to the Moon and on to Mars?

We have recently speculated that Caroline Kennedy — the 51-year old daughter of President John F. Kennedy — might be ideal. She’s often demonstrated her dedication to JFK’s legacy, and if appointed to the Senate now and reelected later, she will have been in the Senate 8 years if she decides to run for president in 2016. This would be one economic long wave after her father became the first Space President in 1960.

The New York Times reported last Sunday that Caroline met with the governor of New York about her interest in being appointed to soon-to-be Secretary of State Clinton’s open Senate seat. Caroline Kennedy is supported by Mr. Obama and would bring endless connections, major financial assets, and her father’s unparalleled space legacy to the position. Plus, for the last week, the prediction market Intrade.com has listed Caroline’s probability of success as hovering around 80%.

It appears that the first step in our speculative scenario will soon occur.

Congratulations to George Friedman, founder and CEO of Stratfor, a geopolitical consulting and forecasting firm, for his new book The Next Hundred Years. Although the book won’t be released until January 27, Dr. Friedman and his reviewers drop revealing hints on his website about its thrust and directions.

Any scientific forecast is only as reliable as its methodology, and Friedman uses historical analogies, economic analyses, demographic data, and geopolitical patterns “dating back hundreds of years…”

21stCenturyWaves.com also uses specific patterns in the economy and history. However, this weblog’s focus is on human expansion, technology, and wars because they appear to be facilitated by long waves in the economy at least over the last 200 years.

Will global economic growth be powered by satellites that beam solar energy to Earth? Click .

Our emphasis on technology and science is significant because progress in modern science has had a profound impact on human history…an effect that is accelerating today. Indeed, Francis Fukuyama concluded that progress in natural science is the mechanism of directionality in history, “The progressive unfolding of modern natural science (explains)…many of the specific details of historical evolution.” This is especially due to its direct effects on economic development, social organization, and military competition. It is possible to imagine technological wildcards (e.g., space transportation, the “singularity“) that might surprisingly alter any geopolitical forecast for the 2nd half of this century, but despite that, Friedman’s book is definitely a mind-expanding exercise.

A sample of Friedman’s forecasts and my preliminary comments include:

– “Technology will focus on space — both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.”

The rise of space is a major theme of 21stCenturyWaves.com. It’s a maturing arena with almost unlimited potential in energy, colonization, science, and tourism. Friedman has recognized
space-based solar power as a credible solution to Earth’s expanding 21st Century energy needs.
Whether the solar collectors are in Earth orbit or on the Moon, a global solution will require lunar materials to lower costs and environmental impacts. Thus Earth’s 21st Century energy crisis may drive development of the Moon.

Friedman’s SF-like global space war starting in 2050 — featuring “battle stars” and Turkish and Japanese opponents for the U.S. — if we are to take it seriously, would be a “trough war” analogous to W.W. II that would suggest lingering hostilities from the major war forecasted for the 2020s by this weblog. (In the last 200 years peaks in the long economic wave are always accompanied by a major war; the only exception was W.W. II which occurred at an economic low point)

– “The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude — replaced by a second full-blown Cold War with Russia.”

Many signs suggest the second Cold War is already well on its way. As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, events seem to be replaying the Cold War trajectory of 56 years ago (just prior to the Apollo Maslow Window). The question is whether the second Cold War will divert us from a “Grand Alliance for Space” and force us into a new Sputnik-style race for space around 2015.

– “China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.”

China’s future problems will involve an aging population, non-democratic government, slowing economy, and other factors. Depending on its timeframe, this will have major implications for space. Friedman’s forecast of a weakened China might favor a “Grand Alliance” mode for 21st Century space colonization, as opposed to a Sputnik-style race for space.

Friedman’s Mexico forecast is an eyebrow-raiser.

– “The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century.”

According to Friedman, “the United States’ power is so extraordinarily overwhelming” that it will dominate the 21st century.

Although this weblog has not focused on potential events after 2030, if there is a Golden Age for the U.S. — due to free markets, democracy, technological innovation, world-class universities, friendly immigration policies — in the second half of the 21st century, the Golden Age will be modulated by the long economic wave peaking near 2081…

There will be more comments on Dr. Friedman’s very interesting book later this month.

Just finishing up some Christmastime reading last weekend and was especially enjoying an article in the British Interplanetary Society Journal (November, 2008) by Stephen Baxter who asserts that the apparent absence of pre-Marconi optical beacons from nearby extraterrestrials (ETs) shows “a deepening of the Fermi Paradox…To the ‘great silence’, we must add the ‘great darkness’.”

Of course, the Fermi Paradox refers to Nobel physicist and A-bomb scientist Enrico Fermi who in the 1940s recognized that our Milky Way Galaxy was the right size (about 100,000 light years across) so that an advanced civilization using nonrelativistic speeds could colonize the Galaxy in only a few million years. And, the fact that our Galaxy is about 13 billion years old suggests that if an ET civilization somehow appeared and got organized, they’d have had plenty of time to come here, and just ONE — the first one — could take over the entire Galaxy. So Fermi wondered, “Where are They?”

A Von Neumann Probe would be the key to colonization of the entire Galaxy. Click .

To me, Fermi’s Paradox is especially wonderful because it integrates and crystalizes the two fundamental rationales driving human expansion into the cosmos as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window: 1) the desire to explore and settle Earth-like planets (space colonization), and 2) the search for extraterrestrial life, especially intelligent life. Under Maslowian influences, the Fermi Paradox will assume increasing importance during the next decade.

Baxter’s point is that optical beacons could have been used by ETs to remotely greet humans long before radio was invented on Earth. For example, using a 7-meter Next Generation Space Telescope, ETs from 10 light years away could produce an optical beacon comparable to the brightest star (Sirius) in our sky. Using an optimistic Moore’s doubling law currently observed in high-powered laser development, Baxter estimates the power requirements (~30 terrawatts) could be attained in ~40 years. A pulsed beacon with steering capability could reduce power demands by orders of magnitude for potentially gregarious, nearby ETs.

Prior to radio waves, how would ETs find us? Ruddiman (2007) argues that detectable pre-industrial effects of humans on the atmosphere may go back at least to the Neolithic ‘farming revolution’ (8000 yrs ago) when significant greenhouse gases escaped into the air. This signal should have enticed ETs to aim their sunlight beacons at Earth, from up to 1000 light years away. Although our pre-Copernican ancesters didn’t know what they were, they did faithfully record the supernovas of 1054 and 1181, but there is “no record of anything unequivocally resembling a sunlight beacon,” according to Baxter; hence the increasing Fermi-style “silence” and “darkness” I recounted earlier.

About this time I picked up my copy of Jesse Marcel, Jr.’s The Roswell Legacy which suggests any Fermi-induced depression may be premature. Dr. Marcel is a key figure in all of UFO history because when he was 11 years old, in 1947, his dad (Major Marcel) brought home some debris from the Roswell crash site and put in on their kitchen table. It apparently was not a weather balloon because “my father knew that what he had found was something absolutely incredible… parts from a ‘flying disc’…” Jesse noticed the I-beam had the now-famous “Egyptian hieroglyphics” markings that he decided “were more like geometric symbols…” Later his dad warned him not to mention the debris to anyone else and “that this material was from an unearthly craft.”

So is he telling the truth? Having been over the book a few times Dr. Marcel comes across as a very frustrating guy: he speaks lovingly of his father; he’s a respected physician in Montana, he loves his wife and kids, he did a 13-month tour in Iraq as a flight surgeon, …I could go on. It would be easier to dismiss him if he just dated Paris Hilton or something, but he doesn’t. I’m at a loss. I can’t think of any reason not to believe him and admire him.

So where do these two stories — the Fermi Darkness and the Marcel Witness — leave us? What would happen if we took them both seriously?

The Fermi story points to the absence of ETs in our vicinity while Marcel (and much other data) suggests there’s serious evidence for the reality of some UFOs. For the moment let’s rule out Messengers of Deception — one of my favorite Jacques Vallee books — because if UFO encounters are actually being faked by humans on Earth to frighten us so we don’t have wars….well let’s just say it isn’t working very well.

How else could we explain real UFOs with no ETs? How about a self-replicating machine — i.e., a Von Neumann Probe — capable of making copies of itself from raw materials found on any moon or planet in the Galaxy? A few VNPs strategically released in ancient galactic times by ETs would exponentially increase to fill the Galaxy with a vibrant reconnaissance network. Over time, if the ETs died, left the Galaxy, or lost interest, the VNP Galactic Network would continue operating and replicating indefinitely according to their creators’ original plan.

Raw human exploration passions are accelerating the riveting search for answers to many potential Fermi/Marcel-type scenarios; they can only be attained by space colonization and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. The most aggressive expeditions into the unknown occur during the twice-per-century Maslow Windows when pulses of exploration inevitably propel human expansion into the cosmos.

HAPPY NEW YEAR Everybody!!

Thanks for visiting 21stCenturyWaves.com

This is an updated 1st-of-the-month list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites over the Last 7 Days, and II) Favorites for December, 2008.

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.
For updated lists of readers’ favorite posts for the last 7 days and for all-time, please click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 1/1/09

I. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) State of the Wave, Politics Focus — Sunday, 11/9/08 — 11/10/08
2) 10 Lessons Peary & Amundsen Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 11/29/08
3) 10 Lessons Dr. Livingstone (“…I presume?”) Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 12/25/08
4) U.S. Losing “Dominance” in Space? — 7/9/08
5) 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08

II. DECEMBER, 2008 — Readers’ Favorites

1) State of the Wave, Politics Focus — Sunday, 11/9/08 — 11/10/08
2) 10 Lessons Peary & Amundsen Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 11/29/08
3) Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, Friday 9/12/08 — 9/14/08
4) 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08
5) China and Russia Take the Smart Road to Mars! — 12/4/08

ALSO…

…21stCenturyWaves.com is again happily participating in the Carnival of Space (#85), this week hosted by Steve Nerlich of Canberra, Australia at Cheap Astronomy. If you’d like to sample a number of excellent space-related weblogs, please click HERE.

The Carnival is run by Fraser Cain, publisher of Universe Today.

After a financial year like 2008 we need some comic relief to start the new year, and Monday’s Wall Street Journal (12/29/08; Andrew Osborn) serves up just what the doctor ordered in the form of a Russian professor who predicts the collapse and breakup of the United States in 2010.

Igor Panarin — a former KGB agent currently with the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats — believes that “an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S.” Mr. Panarin’s Khruschev-style vision forecasts America doing the splits into 4 major regions: California Republic, Texas Republic, Atlantic America, and Central North American Replublic. Although “there’s a 45-55% chance right now that disintegration will occur” in June, 2010, Mr Panarin claims not to rejoice at the prospect because “it’s not the best scenario — for Russia.”

Igor Panarin’s vision of the future United States. Click .

However, Panarin’s model is not supported by long-term trends. Indeed, based on macroeconomic data from the last 200 years, it appears that long waves in the economy — a concept invented by the Russian economist Kondratieff in the 1920s — provide the fundamental force enabling Great Explorations, Macro-Economic Projects (MEPs), and even major wars. Indeed, all three types of events cluster near ebullient peaks in major twice-per-century economic booms called Maslow Windows; the next spectacular Maslow Window is expected to open near 2015. The current Panic of 2008 is a member of a class of Pre-Window Panics that occur about a decade before their Windows; panic onset years (Maslow Window opening years) are: 1837 (1847), 1893 (1903), none in 1949 (1959), and 2007 (2015, expected). Historical records also suggest a possible financial panic near the American Revolution that would fit this pattern; i.e., the Lewis & Clark Maslow Window opened near 1801.

Thus the surprising lesson of the last 200 years is that financial panics are a common feature of the economic landscape just prior to each Maslow Window. And yet no Maslow Window has ever been delayed by a panic or in any observable way diminished by one.

While the long-term trends are favorable, “the last months of 2008 will go down as one of the most severe economic reversals to date,” according to Zachary Karabell in the Wall Street Journal (12/26/08). He counsels that while we “may be in for a long slide,” it’s best to be “creative and unideological about solutions, and open to the possibility that as quickly as things turned sour they can reverse.”

Economic uncertainty in the U.S. is fueling increasing Russian fascination with Mr. Panarin, as is the fact that his catastrophic vision fits nicely with Putin’s plans for a globally resurgent Russia. Fun fantasies of a fragmented U.S. may also serve as a domestic distraction from the economic “perfect storm” and “political crisis” that may be brewing in Russia, according to Leon Aron (Wall Street Journal, 12/31/08).

And incidentally, Panarin also predicts that Alaska will escape from the U.S. and be “subsumed” into Russia. Do you suppose he’s ever met Governor Sarah Palin?