With the vision of Walt “If you can dream it you can do it” Disney and the scope of Gene “Star Trek — The Final Frontier” Roddenberry, Steve Durst, of Space Age Publishing Company (Palo Alto, CA), is determined to lead us into the Aquarius Age, The Next 2000 Years!

According to Steve, “This amazing Milky Way Galaxy…A new human domain, massive and immense, yet finite enough for human understanding and familiarization — multi-billions larger than our solar / star system, yet sub-microscopic in the cosmic infinity.”

This is early ebullient thinking at its finest!

As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, this stunning vision of human expansion into the cosmos will continue to gain momentum and begin to go ballistic.

In his 4/20/09 email to me, “I do wish I had learned about 21st Century Waves before writing the 2100 / 100AA essay — lots of synchronous interests and perspectives there, continuing same of last 30+ years — Congratulations.” Thanks and Congratulations to you too Steve!

Space Calendar (Vol 4, No. 10) featured my new concept for interplanetary commerce. Click spacecal.JPG

I first heard of Space Calendar in the 1980s shortly after I joined General Dynamics and had developed an idea that would provide an economic incentive for the human exploration of Mars and inaugurate interplanetary commerce. Basically, GD/NASA (!!) would retrieve water mined on the moons of Mars to the Earth-Moon system for use as propellants and/or life support. Avoiding Earth’s deep gravity well — i.e., not launching the water from Earth but from Mars’ tiny moons — creates a large energy advantage. Although our cost study was promising, it depended on the markets in Earth orbit and/or at the Moon for success, which is still true. Anyway, I sent the concept to Steve and he put it on the cover of Space Calendar’s May 13-15, 1985 issue, which you can see above.

Steve’s basic theme is “Galacticity” …his word for Galaxy Consciousness. It will provide inspiration and future direction. His new (March, 2009) brochure features a “future history” approach in the form of a fascinating timeline out to 2100. For example, his entries include: “2100 — Lifespan average of 120 years based on 1900-2000 60% Longevity Growth from 45 to 75 years…off-Earth population likely to grow exponentially in Free-Space habitats, and throughout CisLunar and Solar System domains…”

Steve’s Galaxy Forum program is exciting and promising. Check it out at www.iloa.org or www.spaceagepub.com.

1) What a cool milestone!!

21stCenturyWaves.com is again happily participating in the Carnival of Space…the 100th !,
This special week it’s hosted by Brian Ventrudo, Ph.D. at One-Minute Astronomer.

If you’d like to sample a number of excellent space-related weblogs, please click HERE

The Carnival is run by Fraser Cain — special congratulations to Fraser too for #100! — publisher of Universe Today.

2) See You at the AIAA Space 2009 Conference in Pasadena…

I’ll be speaking on “Future of Human Spaceflight: Implications of Long-Term Trends,” AIAA-2009-6628. The Abstract is here.

The Conference is in Pasadena, CA from September 14 – 17.

If you plan to be there please let me know and we’ll talk about the future of space colonization.
Mark your calendars!

Congratulations to my mom because this week she achieved the remarkable age of 91 and continues to enjoy life on the west coast of Michigan! Happy Birthday Mom!!

Ebullience in abundance: My mom at the Taj Mahal. Click taj.pdf.

Besides being the most loving, ebullient mother anyone could imagine having, she’s a retired teacher and a world traveler who’s interested in everything. She grew up in India and learned to play tennis at the Kodaikanal School in the Palani Hills of Tamil Nadu while her dad was a Methodist missionary.

Since that time she’s visited every continent on Earth except Antarctica — although I don’t want to give her any ideas — and shared it all with her lucky students. More recently she’s enjoyed visiting China, Australia, and New Zealand.

The first part of mom’s life encompassed “The Aspirin Age” from 1919 to 1945; a counter-ebullient period just after the abrupt fall from the near-utopian Polar/Panama Canal Maslow Window to W. W. I, including the Great Depression and W. W. II. Similar hard times have afflicted the Taj Majal, and we offer our congratulations to this architectural masterpiece for surviving all of them.

Built in the 17th century by Mughal Emperor Shah Jahan as a memorial for his wife, Mumtaz Mahal, the Taj was damaged during the Indian Rebellian of 1857, near the end of the Dr. Livingstone Maslow Window. However, just in time for the ebullient Polar/Panama Canal Maslow Window, British viceroy Lord Curzon ordered a massive restoration project, which was completed in 1908, only 10 years before mom was born.

Again, congratulations to the Taj and Happy Birthday to You, mom!

Thanks to “GK” from Mountain View, California for some intriguing questions that I want to feature here, because they are important to an understanding of Maslow Windows, long waves, and the long-term prospects for space colonization.

1. Why does each energy peak have to have a major war?

This is a question that initially puzzled me in the mid-1990s when I first saw major hot wars (e.g., W. W. I) line up with each peak in the 56 year energy cycle, over the last 200 years. It’s an empirical fact that they do, however it adds credibility to forecasting if the circumstances make sense.

Because the peaks are the culmination of large economic booms that surge during the Maslow Windows, it’s a time of unprecedented, almost utopian affluence, and they seem an odd time for big wars. A popular opinion among political scientists is that this is the only time nations can “afford” a war; other times they just don’t have the financial means or the will.

The way it works is that the major economic boom that triggers a Maslow Window creates widespread affluence-induced ebullience in society. This ebullience is a powerful form of Keynesian “animal Spirits” and Greenspan’s “irrational exhuberance.” For many people, ebullience catapults them to elevated levels in Maslow’s Heirarchy where they are momentarily fascinated by large technology projects and/or great explorations. However, other people — who are also experiencing exceptional ebullience — do not ascend Maslow’s heirarchy. And they have the financial means and ebullient energy to make trouble by engaging in large wars.

2. What major war started in 1969? The Cold war was already underway, and most of the casualties in VietNam had already happened.

The Cold War was a time from about 1947 to 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. This time of international tensions was punctuated by a number of “hot” international wars and “almost” wars, including the Korean War (1950-53), the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) which almost started W. W. III, the Vietnam War (1965-73), and the Soviet War in Afghanistan (1979). The Cold War began to draw to a close with President Reagan’s “Tear down that (Berlin) wall” speech in 1987 followed by the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

U.S. involvement in Vietnam began during Eisenhower’s administration; by 1960 there were several hundred military advisors helping the Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam). Because of his concern about Communist expansion in the region, by 1963 President John F. Kennedy increased U.S. military personnel in Vietnam to 16,000. However, U.S. involvement experienced a quantum leap in 1965 when President Lyndon Johnson sent 22,000 troops there. And by 1968, U.S. troops in Vietnam numbered 525,000.

Largely due to the unpopularity of the war, President Johnson did not seek a second term and Richard Nixon was elected president in 1968. In 1973 — the year after he opened China to the West — Nixon withdrew U.S. troops from Vietnam. Vietnamese deaths are estimated in the millions and U.S. deaths were 58,000.

One result of the severe human and financial costs of the Vietnam War for the U.S. was the cancellation of the last 3 Apollo missions to the Moon (18, 19, 20), for which Saturn V launch vehicles had already been built. Even during the recent Iraq War, which came to a positive conclusion, the wounds of Vietnam — 3 decades later — still lingered; e.g., Is Iraq Another Vietnam? (Brigham, 2006).

It’s important to keep in mind that the long wave is not always exactly 56 years; it typically varies between 55 and 60. So expecting major wars to occur exactly at the peak in 1969 is unrealistic, although major wars over the last 200 years are quite close. Please see Joshua Goldstein and others for an in-depth discussion of the relation of long waves and wars.

Speaking of the Cold War, one possibility is that a 2nd Cold War will increase global tensions and contribute to a new international Race for Space near 2013 (Sputnik year plus 56). The recent Russian invasion of Georgia and a generally resurgent Russia are seen by many as evidence for a possible 2nd Cold War.

In fact, the most important Wild Card of the 2015 Maslow Window is the date of the major war expected in the 2020s. If it comes in the late 2020s, human civilization may expand to the Moon and possibly even Mars. If it starts closer to 2020 — in addition to the tragic loss of life and property — human expansion into the cosmos may be postponed until near 2071, when the late 21st Century Maslow Window is expected to open.

3. Also, the Great Depression and WW2 appeared to be in the middle of the cycle, not at the ends. If the GD + WW2 period was 1929-45, 56 years after that comes to 1985 – 2001, which was actually a boom.

You’ve brought up an interesting case study. Actually, in 1987 — 58 years after the Crash of 1929 and 18 years after the last energy peak in 1969 — was the greatest stock market crash (Black Monday) since 1929.

In a previous post I mentioned that the amazing lack of a recession or depression after 1987 is attributed to financial reforms implemented during the Great Depression. This also explains the initiation of the long boom in the late 1990s, although there was a significant recession in 2001.

W.W. II is the only example of a major “trough war” in the last 200 years, and is commonly attributed to tensions and unfinished business from W.W. I; see, for example, Friedman (2009). Because W.W. II was an anomaly, there was no reason — based on the last 200 years — to expect a major war between 1997 and 2001.

Almost right on schedule, this long boom — described by Fortune in July, 2007 as the “greatest economic boom ever” — was interrupted by the Panic of 2008, about 7 years before the anticipated opening of the 2015 Maslow Window. Such financial panic/recessions appear to be a common feature of the decades just prior to each Maslow Window (except for the Apollo Maslow Window).

4. Is it possible that the 56-year window is lengthening, because life expectancies are rising? In the past, the 56-year window was due to very few people living long enough to remember the prior crisis 56 years ago. Today, that cycle may be longer.

This is also a fun question although it assumes a cause for the 56 year long wave that is not verified. I assume a Schumpeterian trigger (“creative destruction”) related to bunching of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that trigger new economic booms every 55 to 60 years. However, there’s little doubt that poor human memories of the preceeding Maslow Window is a contributor to the relative lack of public understanding of the long wave phenomenon.

In the past, some readers of my articles and this website have suggested that the long wave is getting shorter because of the commercially, technologically, and socially accelerating effects of the internet, mass media, and global transportation. For example, imagine Thomas Jefferson’s ability to communicate with Europe versus ours now.

However, GK is apparently suggesting that the previous Maslow Window must remain just outside most human memories, because otherwise we’d strive to avoid its negative aspects (e.g., post-Window economic collapse and major wars); an optimistic assumption!

Data for the United States shows an increase in human longevity of about 3 months per year since 1900; a total of about 30 years change over the 20th century. Although we can’t rule it out, there is little empirical evidence for a significant change in the long wave during that time, or indeed over the last 200 years. This does not support GK’s model.

Continuing last week’s mini-tour of Space Age sites associated with the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window, one has to be especially impressed with the spectacular space icons of southern New Mexico and Arizona, and how they point to the approaching, new Space Age near 2015.

The elegant McMath-Pierce Solar Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory models Camelot-style scientific ebullience. Click .

Alamogordo, NM — just up the road from the White Sands National Monument and Holloman Air Force Base (currently with 2 squadrons of F-22 Raptors) and at the base of the Sacramento Mountains, home of the National Solar and Apache Point observatories — is the site of the New Mexico Museum of Space History.

Boom-town Alamogordo, NM hosts a superb space museum. Click sonmmuseum.jpg.

The Space Museum commemorates everything from Goddard’s early rocket experiments near Roswell to a mockup of the International Space Station. Also included is the International Space Hall of Fame, which honors individuals who’ve made key contributions to the exploration of space. To emerge from this place not excited about the past, present, and future of humans in space…you’d have to be from another planet!

The John P. Stapp Air and Space Park honors the Space Hall of Fame inductee and amazing aeromedical pioneer of the 1950s. Click stapppark.jpg.

As one of the initial superheroes of the 1st Space Age, John Paul Stapp, M.D., Ph.D. is probably not as famous as he should be today. In 1954 he set a world land speed record of 632 mph and then stopped in 1.4 seconds — pulling just over 20 g’s in the process.

In 1954, The Sonic Wind No. 1 rocket sled propelled Dr. Stapp to 632 mph. Click sonicwind.jpg.

Dr. Stapp was initially concerned about the relation of g forces to pilot injuries during plane crashes and later applied his knowledge to car crashes. For his almost unbelievable rocket sled runs he became known as “The Fastest Man on Earth”, made the cover of Time magazine, and subjected himself to a record-setting 46.2 g’s!

Dr. Stapp shows that pulling 20+ g’s is not as easy as it sounds…! Click .

Dr. Stapp, who retired as a Colonel in the USAF, also proved that for all the cracked ribs, mild hemorraging, and broken wrists that he experienced, it didn’t affect his longevity one bit. Amazingly, he passed away in his Alamogordo home in 1999, at the age of 89.

About one long wave ago (~ 56 years) Dr. Stapp’s experiments paved the way for high-performance air- and spacecraft of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window. Today’s analogous technology development phase for the 2015 Maslow Window is continuing in the International Space Station, among space entrepreneurs (e.g., Virgin Galactic), at national space agencies, and elsewhere.

For example, the current headquarters of Spaceport America is in Las Cruces. According to their website, construction of a road to the Spaceport site, about 45 miles north of Las Cruces, should be completed soon.

The remains of this V-2 were recovered at White Sands after testing. Click v2.jpg.

The first Space Age began shortly after W. W. II with test launches of the German V-2 rocket at the White Sands Missile Range, also known as the “Birthplace of the Race to Space.” Some may remember the historic first, and so far only, landing of a Shuttle at White Sands by Gordon Fullerton and Jack Lousma (STS-3) in 1982. The local pop culture space connections also include famous rumors of a UFO landing at Holloman AFB in 1971 (or before) as dramatized by Rod Serling in the 1974 documentary video “UFOs: Past, Present, and Future.”

The XQ-2 Drone beckons to the Tombaugh IMAX Dome Theater and Planetarium. Click xq-2.jpg.

The Tombaugh Theater and Planetarium sits between the Space History Museum and the new Alamogordo campus of the New Mexico State University. As a teenager I met Professor Tombaugh and was invited to his home in Las Cruces during a family vacation (we lived in Michigan) for a peek through his 16″ telescope. The issue of the Journal of the Association of Lunar and Planetary Observers that he autographed for me is understandably still one of my prized possessions.

On the campus of New Mexico State University, the Tombaugh Observatory honors the former NMSU professor and discoverer of Pluto. Click tombaugh.jpg.

Professor Tombaugh was probably most famous as the discoverer of Pluto, but was also a long-time observer of Mars and played an important role developing scientific rationales for human missions to Mars (e.g., see the 1963 Exploration of Mars, Vol. 15, Adv. Astronaut. Scis., Ed. by G.W. Morganthaler) during the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window. Starting in 1949, Tombaugh was comfortable going public about his many observations of UFOs. He supported the Extraterrestrial hypothesis and was an early voice calling for a serious scientific investigation of UFOs, much like the University of Arizona’s Dr. James McDonald later did, and more recently Stanford’s Peter Sturrock.

The House that Gerard Kuiper Built — The Lunar and Planetary Laboratory at the University of Arizona. Click ualunarlab.jpg

Dr. Gerard Kuiper, known as “the Father of Modern Planetary Science,” established the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory at the University of Arizona in 1960 to give NASA more scientific information about the Moon and planets. For NASA, the idea was to support the Apollo program and eventually human missions to the planets during the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window.

“…A source of pride to the nation.” President John F. Kennedy, 1960. Click solart.jpg.

To the Camelot-style icon of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window, President John F. Kennedy, “The great new solar telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona is a source of pride to the nation. The largest instrument for solar research in the world, it presents American astronomers with a unique tool for investigating the nearest of all the stars, our Sun. The project is of exceptional interest to all our citizens…Bold in concept and magnificent in execution, the instrument is the crowning achievement…” Writing in 1960, JFK’s ebullient tone is unmistakable, as it will be near 2015 when the next Space President describes the scientific challenges of the next Space Age.

Every clear day, the secrets of the Sun are revealed in the observers room. Click solarobs.jpg.

This is an updated mid-monthly list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites over the Last 7 Days, and II) Favorites over the Last 30 days.

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 4/15/09

I. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) World Future Society Forecasts for the Next Maslow Window — 3/31/09
2) Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, 9/12/08 — 9/14/08
3) Klaatu Barada Nikto — 3/24/09
4) Without Adventure Civilization is in Full Decay — 12/8/08
5) How Close Are We to Space Colonization? — 2/1/09

II. THE LAST 30 days — Readers’ Favorites

1) State of the Wave — 10 Space Trends for 2009 — 1/17/09
2) How Close Are We to Space Colonization — 2/1/09
3) World Future Society Forecasts for the Next Maslow WIndow — 3/31/09
4) The Shocking Truth About the Father of the Space Station — 3/28/09
5) Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, 9/12/08 — 9/14/08

This is a recent sample of the interesting ways 21stCenturyWaves.com is being portrayed on the web. Apologies if I couldn’t mention you this time.

Thanks to everyone who’s visited 21stCenturyWaves.com.

Star Trek Online
Thanks for featuring:
New Model Suggests 361+ Civilizations in the Galaxy.

Ciencia Kanija
Thanks for featuring and translating my entire post:
“Was the 1960s Apollo Moon Program an “Anomaly”?”

Next Big Future
Thanks to Brian Wang for featuring:
“World Future Society Forecasts for the Next Maslow WIndow”

Res Communis, University of Mississippi
Thanks to P. J. Blount for linking to:
“The Shocking Truth About the Father of the Space Station”.

Green Gabbro
Thanks to Maria Brumm, M.S. for linking to:
“Carnival of Space — Valentine’s Day Edition”

Colony Worlds
Thanks to Darnell Clayton for linking to:
“How Close Are We to Space Colonization?”

The Mars Society
Thanks for featuring:
“The 1960s Apollo Maslow Window was ‘Transformative’”

Dr. Victor Tiberius
Thanks to Dr. Tiberius, currently executive chairman of Foucault-Hemmersteen AG (equivalent to Inc.) in Berlin, Germany, which specializes in Business and Corporate Development, for featuring 21stCenturyWaves.com

Hope everybody has a Happy Easter!

…Bruce

Space Daily recently (4/7/09) published an intriguing editorial on the next Space Age that was inspired by the recent 25th National Space Symposium of the same theme. It’s hard to resist focusing on a few key Space Age-related issues here, because this weblog was founded to provide a long-range perspective on the human future in space.

I’m more than suitably inspired for this task having just checked in to none other than the Space Age Lodge in Gila Bend — basically across the street from the Barry Goldwater Air Force Range in the southwest desert of Arizona — as I spend a few days visiting friends and space sites in AZ and NM.

The Space Age Lodge in Gila Bend is a genuine icon of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window that tantalizingly points to the next Space Age. Click .

More than just a fun, out-of-the-way place sporting pictures of the Shuttle in every room and the Space Age Restaurant, the Space Age Lodge is a genuine 1960s icon. The Lodge was initially built in 1964 — at the apex of the Apollo Maslow Window — by Al Stovall, who not only had his own copper mine and his own plastic factory, he was also a major supplier of manganese to the U.S. military during WW II. After Sputnik in 1957, Mr. Stovall became very interested in NASA and eventually displayed his large collection of personally autographed photos of nearly every astronaut of the 1960s. After getting my masters from UCLA, I stumbled onto this place enroute to starting a PhD program at the University of Arizona under Gerard Kuiper. When I saw all the autographed astronaut photos on the lobby walls I thought I’d been out in the sun too long!

Unfortunately you can’t see them anymore. When Al passed away in 1973 (apparently shortly after my visit) his autographed photos were returned to family. But the spirit of Al Stovall and the First Space Age are still captured here by the current owners.

Space Daily recognizes the close connection of technology, finance, and the first Space Age. “It seems that such historic periods (the first Space Age) end as a result of two converging events: the “new” technology of the time reaches a mature, established, stable state; and new, societal-changing technologies become widely adapted…(As) the space industry was showing its age…The public seemed to lose interest, government enthusiasm seemed to wane and the industry began consolidating.”

Macroeconomic patterns and historical trends of the last 200 years show that the 1960s Space Age was similar to earlier major pulses of Great non-space Explorations and Macro-Engineering Projects that have clustered together every 55 to 60 years. This can be seen in 200 Years and is described in Cordell (2006) and throughout this weblog. These spectacular decade-long “Maslow Windows” are fundamentally driven by major, twice-per-century economic booms, when widespread affluence-induced ebullience thrusts many in society to elevated states in Maslow’s heirarchy. For a few fleeting moments, the unprecedented exploration and technology projects seem irresistible, in the style of Keynesian “animal spirits.”

Space Daily expresses concern about our current financial crisis and recession and asks the question, “Will there be another Space Age?”

They seem unaware that — over the last 200 years — financial panics and major recessions are a common feature of the decade just preceeding every Maslow Window except one (the post-WWII Apollo Maslow Window). Space Daily concludes that “only after the new global economy has matured and stabilized will a new ‘Integrated Space Age’ be realized.”

They’re correct. And every indicator suggests this process will culminate with the opening of the next Maslow Window near 2015.

This State of the Wave summarizes specific progress toward the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window and movement toward real, near-term space colonization. The focus is on events and trends of long-range significance, especially in the context of the 10 Wave Guides.

1) The Economy

U.S. unemployment is 8.5% — the worst since 1983 — and forecasters say it is headed to 10% later in 2009, and “the world economy is in the midst of its deepest and most synchronized recession in our lifetimes,” according to Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Wall Street Journal, 4/1/09).

Nevertheless, the globally slumping economy remains well within the historical envelopes of similar pre-Maslow Window panic/recessions over the last 200 years.

The New York Times (3/15/09, V. Bajaj) cautiously seeks the bottom by noting that: 1) price/earnings ratios for stocks are very low now but still about twice the P/E ratios of market bottoms for 1932 and 1982, 2) although existing house prices have declined by 1/3 (in current dollars) from their peak in 2006, they remain higher than in the housing booms of the 1970s and 1980s, and 3) Americans are starting to cut back on consumer spending of disposable income which has recently hovered near 100%. According to Obama economic advisor Lawrence Summers, these are the type of early signals that suggest the crisis is easing, although it’s not clear how soon it will end.

On the other hand, the Congressional Budget Office indicated recently that Obama’s budget would result in annual deficits of about $ 1 T over the next decade, and the total deficit from 2010 – 2019 would be “$ 2.3 T more than the administration forecast last month,” (Wall Street Journal, 3/21/09). This could weaken support for Mr. Obama’s spending initiatives. For example, North Dakota Democratic Senator Kent Conrad expressed concern over the long-term debt level because it “threatens the economic security of this country — I believe it in my bones.”

The odds of our current recession reaching depression status were estimated at only 15% recently by a Wall Street Journal (3/30/09, Justin Lahart) poll of economists. According to 94-year old economist Anna Schwartz, who studied causes of the Great Depression with Milton Friedman, “When you get an unemployment rate of 25%, everyone is conscious of that and fearful. We’re not talking in the league at all.” According to Lahart, a depression today would be different than the 1930s because fewer people work in agriculture and more are in service-related jobs today, plus the social safety net programs (e.g. unemployment insurance) would “blunt the blows.” Even without an official depression, Nobel economist Paul Samuelson, is concerned that “after the economy bottoms out, there could be a ‘lost’ four or five years of sluggish growth.”

Even Samuelson’s bleak scenario wouldn’t significantly delay the next Maslow Window. Indeed, growing global Maslow-style pressures to explore and colonize the Moon should have a positive economic effect; e.g., as they did toward the end of the 1893 panic/recession just prior to the Panama Canal/Polar Exploration Maslow Window.

2) North Korea Missile Launch

The launch of Pyongyang’s Taepodong-2 rocket occurred as I was writing this post; Stratfor reports that, “North Korea launched a satellite into orbit via a multistage rocket, Yonhap reported April 4, citing a statement by the Japanese government. The rocket lifted off at 0230 GMT, and it passed over Japan as planned in the flight path.”

The launch had generated global concern: The Los Angeles Times (2/8/09; J. Glionna)speculated that it might test the U.S. “The missile is pointing at Obama. North Korea thinks that with such gestures they can control U.S. foreign policy,” according Baek Seung-joo of the Korean Institute for Defense Analysis in Seoul. Anticipating its trajectory to be over Japan, Tokyo positioned missile interceptors against the rocket or its debris (Wall Street Journal, 3/28/09). British Foreigh Office Minister Bill Rammell, while visiting Seoul, said the launch would be “a clear breach” of the UN Security Council Resolution 1718. And Secretary of State Hillary Clinton labeled the North Korean launch a “provocative act” that would have consequences.

Stratfor reported on 3/25 that according to National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair, “all indications suggest that North Korea will actually launch a satellite.” It appears he was right.

I suggested earlier that “the North Koreans are betting that the ‘global trend of the times’ — i.e., new space programs are developing in many countries around the world — will make the DPRK story believable.” This global trend is a major theme of 21stCenturyWaves.com featuring the approach to our next Maslow Window (expected in 2015) — the culmination of 200+ years of long-term trends in the economy and technology development, characterized by a major thrust toward international human expansion into the cosmos.

On April 3, Stratfor stated that “Ultimately, the Taepodong series missiles and SLVs are showpieces — diplomatic tools Pyongyang wields with care. They are not weapons,” for a variety of reasons including inaccuracy, low production numbers, slow launch capability, and NK’s inability to miniaturize and weaponize a nuclear bomb, according to Stratfor. They expect a few more scoldings or sanctions from the UN, and that’s about it. We’ll see what happens.

3) Growing Optimism About Technology and the Future

As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, this blog has consistently forecast 2 things: 1) increasing public interest in technology and space, and 2) more optimistic public attitudes toward the future. There is evidence that, even 5 to 7 years out from the next Maslow Window and in the midst of the current global recession, both are appearing.

For example, the New York Times Magazine last Sunday (3/29/09; N. Dawidoff) featured an in-depth inteview with Princeton’s Nobel-caliber emeritus physicist Freeman Dyson, whose mind is still described by his colleagues as “infinitely smart” and “extraordinarily powerful.” He is profiled as a brilliant pro-technology scientist, who’s not comfortable with Gore-style climate crisis rhetoric. According to Dyson, “the climate-studies people who work with models…come to believe models are real and forget they are only models.” But the real global warming culprit is NASA scientist “Jim Hansen. He consistently exaggerates all the dangers.” In a recent shift in public opinion, it appears the majority of Americans agree with Dyson; Gallup reports that only 38% think that global warming will have a major impact on their lives.

Another surprise was the current issue of Foreign Affairs (March/April, 2009) whose cover features a stunningly pro-technology article “Geoengineering the Climate?” In case Dyson and others are wrong, the article, by five legal, engineering, and public policy academics, favors albedo techniques to reject solar radiation and cool the Earth. In the style of volcanic eruptions, they suggest injecting sulfate aerosols or similar reflective materials into the upper atmosphere; the space-based reflective cloud technique of Roger Angel is not mentioned, despite the fact that it would be less invasive for the biosphere. Their technology-intensive bottomline is that “the option of geoengineering exists. It would be dangerous for scientists and policymakers to ignore it.”

In another pro-technology development, Gallup reports that “a majority of Americans have been supportive of the use of nuclear energy in the United States in recent years, but this year’s Gallup Environment Poll finds new high levels of support, with 59% favoring its use, including 27% who strongly favor it.” This mirrors beliefs expressed by University of Southern California engineering professor Najmedin Meshkati, at a public event in Orange County that I organized. While acknowledging concerns about nuclear wastes and life-cycle costs, Dr. Meshkati spoke of a “nuclear renaissance” due to increased reactor safety and environment-friendly energy.

Although it is not yet obvious what mix of technologies (e.g., solar, nuclear, others) is best to address future energy/environment challenges, the trend toward pro-technology solutions and optimistic public attitudes about the future is consistent with the last 200 years and especially with our forecasts of the 2015 Maslow WIndow.

4) No NASA Administrator

Space News has concerns about President Obama’s inaction regarding a new post-Griffin Administrator. In a March 30 editorial, they suggested that the candidate vetting and Senate confirmation processes could leave NASA leader-less “well into the second quarter of 2009.” The worry is about major near-term decisions — e.g., retirement date for the Shuttle and the 5-year gap — that will affect NASA well into the 2015 Maslow Window.

This situation is consistent with my January forecast that, despite Obama’s interest and support of NASA during the capaign, he will, of necessity, need to focus on the economy and national security. Therefore, NASA will simply not be a front-burner item early in his administration.

5) ABC News Explains the Theory of Maslow Windows!

The centerpiece of 21stCenturyWaves.com is the concept of a Maslow Window. These are decade-long intervals separated by 55 to 60 years, when major economic booms produce widespread affluence-induced ebullience. For most people, this triggers their ascent to higher levels in Maslow’s heirarchy, where major exploration and technology projects seem at least intriguing and often almost irresistible.

But why, over the last 200 years, have great explorations and macro-engineering projects not been favored by the public during the decades between Maslow Windows (e.g., 1970s, 80s, 90s)?

Gina Sunseri of ABC News (11/29/08) explains that “the space station is the most complicated engineering project ever undertaken, and astronauts are…accomplishing remarkable feats in space — but it is hard for most Americans to care much about the space program when they are worried about keeping their jobs, making house payments and putting food on the table.”

In other words, low levels on Maslow’s heirarchy just don’t make it. Thank you ABC News!