As we celebrate the 400th anniversary of Galileo’s first astronomical use of the telescope, we’re also reminded of his serious troubles with the Vatican regarding the theological implications of his observations.

Given the international focus on Galileo’s example, plus the fact that 94% of Americans believe in God or a Higher Power — see Gallup, 5/8/08 — and that such powerful symbols and belief systems operate on at least the subconscious level to influence our perceptions of physical reality —

It’s of particular interest now — in the spirit of Galileo — to consider 10 spiritual connections of the human exploration of space.

One of the most important photographs ever taken — Apollo 8′s Earth-rise from lunar orbit — continues to subconsciously encourage the spirit of human space exploration. Click .

10. Galileo and the Spirit of Science: This is a special week in the often-turbulent 400 year history of Galileo-Vatican relations: The Niels Stensen Foundation, a Jesuit-run cultural center in Florence, Italy has assembled world-class experts this week (May 26-30, 2009) to re-examine the historical, philosophical, and theological aspects of the Galileo affair.

“For the first time after 400 years, members of the Vatican Observatory, the Pontifical Council for Culture, the Sciences Academy and many other Institutions, that were historically involved in the Galileo affair, are among the experts invited… (to show) how ‘recent scientific and historical research’ might alleviate the ‘tension and conflict’ still clouding the relationship between the church and science.”

Four hundred years ago Galileo actually set us on our course to space exploration and colonization via his telescopic observations of the Moon, Sun, and planets, and his famous experiments with falling bodies that were spectacularly verified in the vacuum of the Moon’s surface during Apollo 15 (see Video).

In particular, Galileo became the “Father of Modern Science” through his spirit of honest intellectual inquiry, and especially because of his insistence on the primacy of observation in the scientific process. He risked his life for these principles –courageously defying powerful authority figures in favor of observations and experimentation. As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window and contemplate human expansion into the cosmos and related science issues of global importance, we would do well to emulate Galileo’s example.

9. The Overview Effect: Frank White’s profound 1987 book has become the unofficial philosophy of human space exploration.

White believes that as we move into space we are creating “a series of new civilizations that are the next logical steps in the evolution of human society and human consciousness.” And in addition to our own expansion, we are “performing a vital function for the universe as a whole.”

All astronauts are profoundly affected by their trips into space but their destination also has a large impact, in fact Gene Cernan (Apollo 17) thinks there are two different space programs: Earth orbit and beyond. In Earth orbit, astronauts feel small compared to the stunningly beautiful Earth and are impressed by the lack of visible political boundaries and the interconnectedness of Earth’s systems. According to White, “The lunar astronaut sees the Earth as small and feels the awesome grandeur of the entire universe.” Michael Collins (Apollo 11) felt that “100,000 miles out” is a perspective that world leaders should experience. Gene Cernan (Apollo 17) had a religious experience while standing on the Moon; what he saw was “too much logic, too much purpose — it was just too beautiful to have happened by accident…”

White believes that the lunar astronaut “begins to sense that an underlying purpose may lie behind it all.” Comparing the symbolism of the famous Earth-rise picture taken from Moon orbit on Apollo 8 (December 1968) to the cross, White suggests that “To millions of Christians all over the planet, the cross is a sign of unity in spite of deep divisions of race, language, and political beliefs. Because symbols work at a subconscious level…it makes sense that this new symbol (lunar Earth-rise) might be having a quiet, though dramatic effect too.”

8. The Noetic Sciences of Apollo 14′s Edgar Mitchell: MIT Doctor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and former U.S. Navy test pilot, Mitchell was the lunar module pilot on the Apollo 14 mission to Fra Mauro along with Alan Shepard, the first American in space.

Famous for his interests in consciousness and paranormal phenomena, Mitchell conducted private ESP experiments with friends on Earth while returning from the Moon.

Mitchell also had a religious experience while returning from the Moon, “The presence of divinity became almost palpable, and I knew that life in the universe was not just an accident based on random processes…The knowledge came to me directly.”

In 1973, he co-founded the Institute of Noetic Sciences (Petaluma, CA) to generate interest and conduct research into extended human capacities (e.g., creativity, meditation), integral health and healing (e.g., mind-body medicine, placebo effects), and emerging worldviews (e.g., spiritual awareness, science of wisdom).

Mitchell’s synthesis of science and spirituality in the Institute of Noetic Sciences provides an impressive example of how personal experiences in space can powerfully expand consciousness. This trend should accelerate as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window and more space travelers — government as well as private — experience the cosmos first-hand.

7. New Earths and the Gaia Hypothesis: Planet Earth is the most complex, awe-inspiring system known in the Universe today. From its mysterious magnetic field – core connection, to its earthquake- and volcano-riddled drifting continents and oceans and its chaotic atmospheric and climate processes, as well as its finely-tuned cosmic connections (e.g. Sun, Moon, Jupiter), not to mention its stunning biosphere and the presence of the highest form of life known in the entire Universe: humans – the Earth really stands out in the cosmos!

Because of Earth’s proximity, complexity, habitability, durability, and cyclic regularity, the Earth itself has always inspired wonder and even worship, and for some this continues today.

During the ebullient 1960s Maslow Window, a British scientist — James Lovelock –working with NASA on techniques to detect life on Mars, proposed the Gaia Hypothesis, named after the Greek goddess of the Earth. Lovelock sketched Gaia as “a complex entity involving the Earth’s biosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and soil; the totality constituting a feedback or cybernetic system which seeks an optimal physical and chemical environment for life on this planet.” This controversial idea has been criticized by a variety of scientists including Stephen Jay Gould and Richard Dawkins. For example, the “Strong Gaia” form of the model — where living systems make the environment more stable, for the purpose of enabling the flourishing of all life – has been criticized as being untestable and therefore unscientific. This speculative form of Gaia is adopted by some as a spiritual doctrine.

NASA’s interest in the Earth has been to study geological, geophysical, atmospheric, and space processes and to try to understand how they interact to produce Earth’s complex environment, including its changes (e.g., climate studies). More recently NASA has also focused on the discovery of planets orbiting nearby stars, with special interest in finding Earth-like worlds. The PlanetQuest site at JPL indicates that presently we know of 347 exosolar planets orbiting 293 stars, with a total of 0 known Earth-like planets; Kepler was recently launched to search for new Earths.

An even more robust scientific mission — the Terrestrial Planet Finder concept — is currently under study. In 2001, the National Research Council explained the motivation for and the high priority of finding Earth-like planets: “The discovery of life on another planet is potentially one of the most important scientific advances of this century, let alone this decade, and it would have enormous philosophical implications.” As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, the detection and exploration of Earth-like planets and the search for extraterrestrial life — the two fundamental drivers of human expansion into the cosmos — will become even more riveting as raw human exploration passions, in the spirit of Apollo, begin to engulf the global public.

6. Astronauts as the Prophets of Space: According to comparative sociologist Fred L. Polak (The Image of the Future, 1961), writing during the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window, the Jewish prophets are the “Founding Fathers of Utopia” and bring renewed faith. They can foresee the future and respond to the challenge of the times.

Likewise, astronauts serve as uniquely credible messengers from space to the people. According to White, “Astronauts fit into the mythical subconscious archetypes of the gods and heroes of old…who perform feats of daring no one else is able or willing to do.” Because space is a unique, holistic experience, it cannot be totally expressed by words alone. Thus only astronauts can really communicate the space “truth” to others. Their implicit promise is of a utopian civilization among the stars.

5. Space as the Promised Land: In Genesis, God promises to give Canaan (The Promised Land) to the descendants of Abraham. As long as the Israelites keep the Covenant they can remain in peace and security.

According to former NASA historian Roger Launius (2005), the Apollo program has similar elements, including “articles of faith and a theology of salvation that allowed humanity to reach beyond Earth and populate the cosmos … The promise of a utopian Zion on a new world, coupled with immortality for the species resonates through every fiber of the space exploration community.”

Shortly after I joined General Dynamics in San Diego, Bill Strobl — who worked on EMPIRE in the early 1960s with Krafft Ehricke for NASA in Huntsville, and in the 1980s directed the GD Advanced Launch System (ALS) program — assured me that Wernher von Braun and the German rocket scientists fully intended to “open the planetary worlds to mankind,” and that even their routine mutual interactions consistently reflected that lofty purpose.

4. Raiders of the Lost Ark: According to biblical accounts, the Ark of the Covenant was a sacred container built at God’s direction to hold two tablets with the 10 Commandments (the Covenant). The Jews, and later the Gentiles, are promised the blessings of God as long as they honor the Covenant. The Ark’s is a powerful tool, as was demonstrated during the parting of the Jordan River and during the battle of Jericho.

The Space “covenant” is the promise of spectacular discovery and adventure in space, including the specific, powerful benefits flowing from new science and technology and the expectation of space colonization itself. In space exploration we control our own fate, although if we ignore space we cease to receive many of its key benefits. While space and God are certainly not synonymous, numerous biblical references to the sky or nonterrestrial topics (e.g., the “Kingdom of Heaven“; “My kingdom is not of this world.”) have created at least subconscious connections in many minds.

The Ark of the Covenant was the focus of the monumentally popular 1981 movie “Raiders of the Lost Ark” with Harrison Ford. This is an example of how knowledge of the Covenant and other prominent biblical themes is not limited to scholars or church members, but is now an integral aspect of popular culture. Thus it is clear why subconscious (and conscious) links between biblical concepts and space are sociologically powerful.

3. Messianic Expectations: Both Christians and Jews expect their Messiah to appear at some unpredictable time in the future and to establish his Kingdom on Earth. For example, traditional Judaism expects the Messiah’s activities on Earth to include an end to wickedness, sin and heresy, and a reward to the righteous.

Perhaps the most obvious space parallel is contact with intelligent extraterrestrial beings. ETs that visit Earth will be much more technologically advanced than we are, and their technologies will seem like magic. Most people believe they exist and that it’s only a matter of time until they arrive (or return) and dramatically change the course of human history.

ETs have been envisioned in a variety of ways. Astronomer Carl Sagan was particularly enthusiastic about the spectacular benefits that ET visits might bring, especially in the technology and science arenas; e.g., see his novel and movie “Contact.” On the other hand, UFO abduction accounts as recounted by Jacobs and others suggest a darker side; this view has reached popular culture through movies like “Fire in the Sky” (1993). “The Mothman Prophesies” (2002) and “The Day the Earth Stood Still” (2008) — a movie and sequel apparently influenced by the long wave — also portray ETs as threatening.

Much more popular was Spielberg’s “E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial“; released in 1982, it became the most successful movie ever up to that time. Although this ET didn’t share much about technology, he did become “the subject of analogies for Jesus.”

Indeed, as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, when Moonbases, international competition in space, and the possibility of alien life, begin to take center stage again, the public may insist that all information about UFOs be revealed by government sources. As the 2015 economic boom elevates the public to higher Maslow hierarchy levels, the desire to explore and know the truth increases.

2. The Apocalyptic Writings: Throughout the Old and New Testaments, predictions are made of extreme disasters on Earth. For example, in Isaiah it is forecast that the Earth will be reduced to a desert (13:9); “What will you do…when from far off, destruction comes (10:3).

Revelation alludes to stunning celestial and terrestrial effects: “The stars of the sky fell onto the Earth…the sky disappeared like a scroll rolling up… (6:13); plus “There was a violent earthquake…the Sun went black…the Moon turned red as blood (6: 12-17).

From a 21st Century perspective, a few astrophysical effects suggest themselves. For example, former Livermore nuclear physicist Dr. John Hardy (1993) suggests that a large cosmic dust cloud colliding with the Solar System (including the Earth) and blocking sunlight could produce the solar and lunar effects. “Falling stars” suggest the cloud has a supply of meteors, and the large earthquake implies “a large asteroid. A massive system is required, if the crust of the Earth is to be disturbed.”

It’s interesting that last year scientists reported archeological evidence that the impact of a half mile-wide asteroid caused the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah, as recorded in Genesis 19.

As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, public attention is again — as it was one long wave ago in the 1950s just before Sputnik was launched and NASA was born — being attracted plans for large-scale human operations in space, including how to mitigate a potential atomic weapon-style disaster associated with an impact of a football field-size asteroid or comet. Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart has formed the B612 Foundation and is working with the United Nations and individual countries to draw international attention to the space impact threat as well as to begin discussions on how to globally coordinate planetary defense.

1. Ray Bradbury and the Eucharist: Celebrated novelist Ray Bradbury is explicit about space as a religious experience, “Too many of us have lost the passion and emotion of the remarkable things we’ve done in space. Let us not tear up the future, but rather again heed the creative metaphors that render space travel a religious experience…”

According to Launius (2005), Bradbury regards a space launch as a personally transformative experience. “Like the Eucharist, the ritual of the launch offers a recommitment to the endeavor and a symbolic cleansing of the communicant’s soul. The experience … is both thrilling and sanctifying.”

Equally importantly, Launius (2005) reminds us that “Apollo’s history has also been depicted as a missed opportunity for the next step in human evolution.” Indeed, Apollo can be thought of as an analog for Bradbury’s concept of the personally transformative space launch, where Apollo represents the transformative “launch” of humanity into space — which has faltered since then.

It’s intriguing that macroeconomic data and historical trends — over the last 200 years — point to the decade between 2015 and 2025 as the resurrection of the 1960s. Indeed, there is every reason to expect that the long-awaited 2015 Maslow Window will feature unprecedented space and technology spectaculars with a Camelot-like zeitgeist.

The New York Times (5/24/09, J. Markoff) highlights the fun idea that developments in artificial intelligence may someday produce a Skynet-like system (as in Terminator Salvation); i.e., “a military R&D project that gained self-awareness and concluded that humans were an irritant…”

Technologist Ray Kurzweil believes The Singularity is near. Click .

This idea dates back to the ebullient Apollo Maslow Window in a 1961 short story by Arthur C. Clarke. First called “The Singularity” in 1993 by Vernor Vinge, it referred to a future time when humans would be overwhelmed by the acceleration of technological progress. Extrapolating from Moore’s Law, AI pioneer Ray Kurzweil predicted in 2005 that technological progress would accelerate to the point when machines had “not only surpassed human intelligence but took over the process of technological invention, with unpredictable consequences.”

And he said it would occur in 2045.

This is one reason I don’t forecast beyond 2030! But all kidding aside, it’s relevant to the favorite question of many of my friends: Besides WW III or a planet-sterilizing comet impact, what would it take to throw off the long wave of the last 200+ years and invalidate the 2015 Maslow Window concept?

My usual response is that it would apparently require something worse than the Civil War, WW I, WW II, the Cold War, the Great Victorian Depression of 1873, The Great Depression of the 1930s, and numerous financial panics and major recessions (including the current one) of the last 200 years. Because amazingly, the long wave didn’t blink during any of those. However, having computers take over the process of technological invention — and probably eventually everything else — would certainly be something new!

Kurzweil, currently 61, envisions uploading the contents of a human’s brain into a computing environment — providing a type of immortality — within his lifetime. At the 2006 World Future Society meeting in Toronto where I happened to catch him, Kurzweil also suggested creating a Manhattan-style project to develop this capability. He had an enormous crowd and we all caught the symbolism when his computer malfunctioned during the presentation and nobody could fix it. Nevertheless, Kurzweil’s a genuine celebrity in the technology and futures communities.

But not everyone is buying the show. For example, William Joy, co-founder of Sun Microsystems, believes bad news is more likely than a Kurzweilian utopia with ultra-computers attending to our every need, “I wasn’t saying we would be supplanted by something, I think a catastrophe is more likely.”

And expanding on the fact that Moore’s Law is not a law of physics, merely an industrial pattern, physicist and management consultant Theodore Modis asserts that Kurzweil’s approach is not really scientific. “Kurzweil and the singularitarians are indulging in some sort of para-science, which differs from real science in matters of methodology and rigor. They tend to overlook rigorous scientific practices such as focusing on natural laws, giving precise definitions, verifying the data meticulously, and estimating the uncertainties.”

Modis questions Kurzweil’s key forecasts, including whether The Singularity will ever occur, because Kurzweil’s exponentials are actually “S” curves. For example, regarding supercomputing power, “assuming that the exponential trend will continue until 2045 (which I personally doubt) we find that computer power will reach 6×10**23 Flops (floating-point operations per second) at ‘singularity time’. But … until computer power reaches a final ceiling, there must be further growth of less than two orders of magnitude. This translates to an ultimate computer power of less than 10**25 Flops, which is in flagrant contradiction with Kurzweil’s forecast of 10**50 and beyond!”

Modis is passionate about his anti-Singularity beliefs. Although I first read about the 56 year energy cycle in his 1992 book and have been in contact with him since my 1996 Space Policy article, he more recently gently complained about Figure 1 in Cordell (2006), because it could be misinterpreted to support The Singularity.

Neither Modis nor I actually finished Kurzweil’s book. Modis admits that “Around Page 150 I got fed up and stopped … as science fiction goes, even realistic one like Kurzweil’s, I prefer more literary prose with plot, romance, and less of this science.”

Science magazine (May 1, 2009) celebrates up-to-the-minute views of planet Mercury’s magnetosphere, exosphere, and surface from the second flyby in October, 2008; the third flyby is scheduled for 9/29/09 and orbital insertion of Messenger will occur next year on March 18.

Although few people have ever actually seen it in the sky because of its closeness to the Sun (0.4 AU), Mercury is an extraordinary scientific puzzle with almost unlimited potential for human utilization. As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window and pursue human expansion toward the Moon and Mars, global interest in the spectacular large-scale potential for Mercury will emerge.

Although currently in need of better public relations, Mercury is a scientific jackpot and the key to human use of the inner Solar System and beyond. Click .

The mysteries began decades ago with recognition of Mercury’s extremely high density (5.43) for such a small planet (just over 1/3 of Earth’s radius); it had to be the Iron World! If all this iron formed a core, there would be only a thin layer of rocks (~ 600 km) for Mercury’s mantle and crust, resulting in rapid freeze-over for a molten core. In the 1970s, Mariner 10 scientists decided to include a magnetometer on the spacecraft — just to be sure — and were rewarded with a surprise discovery: a weak, but definitely Earth-like magnetic field surrounding Mercury.

Today, the Top Two Mercury Mysteries are: 1) how can such a small planet have an Earth-like magnetic field? and 2) how can a planet have such a thin silicate mantle; i.e., such a low silicate-to-iron ratio?

In Mercury (Vilas et al., 1988) Gerry Schubert — National Academy of Sciences member and my research boss while a graduate student at UCLA — showed that for a relatively stiff, insulating mantle, Mercury could retain a partly molten core with a few % of sulfur. More recent studies support this idea and include Earth-like dynamo processes in the core; see the MESSENGER team of Kabin et al. (2008).

At the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, we determined (Cordell and Strom, 1977) from Mariner 10 images (with about 45% surface coverage) that the planet had cooled and actually shrunk early in its history, as has been confirmed by MESSENGER’s survey of the whole planet. Despite this contraction, Denevi et al. (2009) indicate that widespread, effusive (lunar mare-like) volcanism has been an important process on Mercury. Earth-based observations have indicated a generally basaltic composition and MESSENGER color data suggest low-iron pyroxenes or olivines.

There is little evidence of an “ancient feldspar-rich crust such as that of the lunar highlands.” Although not addressed in Denevi et al. (2009), this is consistent with theories for Mercury’s high density that involve removing much of the planet’s outer mantle with a large impact. Also interesting is the main inference from MESSENGER that “much of Mercury’s crust formed as a result of the eruptions of magmas of varying composition over an extended duration of geologic time,” (italics mine). This is consistent with a continuously cooling core that has remained warm enough over the planet’s lifetime to produce the currently observed field.

Despite the difficulties of just getting there, a rich speculative literature describing Mercury’s future already exists. Mercury offers 21st Century humans 3 wonderful things: 1) more solar energy than you can imagine, 2) a moderate planetary gravity well with 1/3 Earth’s surface gravity (similar to Mars), and 3) a primordial, airless surface. I suppose that given enough time and determination, we could produce April showers and rose gardens on Mercury — but it would be a cosmic crime to do so. In Terraforming, Martyn Fogg agrees that “some lesser planets may be of more use to a Solar System civilization generally if they are left airless so that the products of mineral extraction can be easily launched into space.”

Think of the entire surface of Mercury as a solar cell farm where the Sun is almost 7x brighter than at Earth. (Except for the polar craters, where there may even be Moon-like deposits of ice, the rest of Mercury gets a little toasty for settlements, to say nothing of the amazingly long solar days — 176 Earth days). So the big question is: what are you going to do with all that energy?

If you want to build things, the entire ferromagnesian Mercurian crust is available. It will liberate useful elements like iron, silicon, titanium, and oxygen if you apply enough solar energy in the right ways. Mercury’s airless surface and moderate gravity promise relatively easy access to space for electromagnetic launchers (mass drivers). It’s a dream come true!

One suggestion is to build solar sails on Mercury, shoot them into space, and then use the abundant sunlight as free propellant (Gillett, 1996). If you construct sails that are configured to use laser beams instead of sunlight, a Mercury-based laser could zip you back to Earth or Mars. Larger versions could send you toward the stars. (See Robert Forward).

For those who don’t want to leave the Solar System just yet, why not expand your sociological horizons and build a space colony with a few thousand of your closest friends using materials from Mercury and energy from the Sun? Initially these colonies might be in Mercury orbit, but eventually they’d circle the Sun independently. Over time, if you produce enough Mercury/Sun space colonies, they’ll remind us of something very special: a Dyson Sphere

All it takes is the energy and materials of Mercury and almost anything is possible. However, as we approach the 2015 – 2025 Maslow Window and stress over a 2020 return to the Moon, it appears that even Mars bases are doubtful, much less the large-scale utilization of Mercury. Unless a significant human beachhead in deep space — i.e., near the Moon or beyond — is established before 2025, as part of an international multi-decade Human Solar System Initiative, it appears Mercury spectaculars will be relegated to the late 21st Century Maslow Window…

…It starts near 2071.

The monumental Panama Canal was — prior to Apollo — the greatest Macro-Engineering Project (MEP) of the last 200 years. The Canal brought people together by splitting the continent, and in terms of cost, management, technology, and global significance, it has strong parallels with Apollo and the International Space Station (ISS), and offers us insight into our spectacular future.

The secrets of the Panama Canal reverberate through the last 100 years and — together with Apollo and the International Space Station — illuminate future Macro-Engineering Projects in space. Click .

Here are 10 Lessons the Panama Canal teaches us about the human future in space.

10. “The creation of a water passage across Panama was one of the supreme human achievements of all time,” according to ultra-historian David McCullough (1977), “…the culmination of a heroic dream of over four hundred years…It is a work of civilization.”

In Cordell (2006) I adopted the definition of an MEP from Eugene Ferguson (1916-2004), who was a well-known professor of engineering, a founding member and former president (1977-78) of the Society for the History of Technology, and a da Vinci Medalist (SHoT’s highest honor) in 1977. According to Ferguson, MEPs are: 1) at the state-of-the-art of technology for their time; 2) extremely expensive and usually large in size; and 3) sometimes practical in purpose, but often they are aimed at satisfying intangible needs of a spiritual or psychological nature and are highly inspiring.

This is a demanding definition that excludes many extraordinary projects like trans-continental railroads or large highway systems because, while expensive and significant, they do not stretch technology.

The Canal’s grandeur versus Apollo’s and ISS’ off-world technology, are tantalizingly suggestive of the unprecedented MEPs and great explorations that await us in the 2015 Maslow Window, as humanity’s expansion into the cosmos accelerates.

9. “The fifty miles between the oceans were among the hardest ever won by human effort and ingenuity,” (McCullough, 1977). The enormous sacrifice in human life — called a “great war” by President Theodore Roosevelt — was in excess of 27,000, including an estimated 22,000 during the French period (1881-1889) and 5,600 deaths during the American period between 1904-1914.

The threat of tropical diseases, land slides, railroad accidents, and premature dynamite explosions contributed to the extraordinary psychological stress for the workers. And while yellow fever crippled the French effort to build the Canal, the successful medical research of Drs. Carlos Finlay and Walter Reed aided the American project tremendously.

The modern and future world is indebted beyond words to the people who risked (and often lost) their lives working on the construction of the Panama Canal. They provide a profound inspiration to those currently engaged in the human expansion into the cosmos.

8. As of the early 20th century, the Panama Canal had the highest price tag of any construction project in U.S. history; indeed, it was the largest commitment ever of resources in peacetime for any nation. It cost the U.S. about $ 375 M — $ 8.3 B in 2008 dollars — over 10 years (i.e., the Peary/Panama Maslow Window). The Canal consumed only 0.10% of U.S. GDP during that time.

Although the Panama Canal was for transportation while Apollo was the first combined MEP and Great Exploration, and it was off-world, it’s still interesting to compare their costs. In today’s dollars Apollo cost close to $ 150 B, so Apollo was almost 20x as expensive as the Canal. However, a more meaningful comparison is as fraction of GDP. During the years of their programs, Apollo averaged about 0.25% of GDP compared to 0.10% for the Canal.

Comparison of Panama and Apollo suggest that MEPs during the 2015 Maslow Window will dwarf Apollo. For example,

A. INCREASING PUBLIC INTEREST IN MEPS: If this trend of an increase in GDP fraction allocated to MEPs continues (i.e., increase by 2-3x over Apollo), then coming MEPs would dwarf Apollo by corresponding factors. (This would imply that public support for MEPs in 2015+ would have increased over Apollo by as much as it did between Panama and Apollo.)
And,

B. BOOMING ECONOMIC GROWTH: Given the projected growth based on the last 200 years of macroeconomic data — i.e., by 2025, increase of GDP by 7x over 1969; as of 2008, GNP has increased 3.1x over 1969 –, it is reasonable to expect MEPs in the 2015 Maslow Window to dwarf Apollo by corresponding factors. (PLEASE NOTE: As they have over the last 200+ years, rhythmic twice-per-century major economic booms trigger the Maslow Window ebullience effects on society, which fundamentally drive public support for MEPs and Great Explorations.)

Socio-economic insights from the Panama/Apollo MEP experiences and macroeconomic data from the last 200 years, suggest near-future MEPs
(e.g., including planetary bases, space solar power sats, interplanetary transportation systems) during the 2015 Maslow Window will significantly dwarf Apollo by factors of from 7x to 20x — i.e., in the $ 1 T to $ 3 T ballpark (current USD).

7. Both the Panama Canal and Apollo Moon program were fundamentally about designing, constructing, and using major transportation systems in hostile environments, and their management and technology challenges have impressive parallels and lessons for the future.

The Panama Canal’s design and technology challenges centered around the location and type of canal, and construction operations. No one had ever built an enormous structure in a tropical environment that included mysterious, lethal diseases (e.g., yellow fever) and other natural hazards (e.g., climate, snakes). This led to large loss of life and contributed to eventual failure during the French period (see 9 above). However, by November, 1905 yellow fever had been eradicated in the Canal Zone by the Americans.

In the early 1880s, the French under de Lesseps decided to construct a sea-level canal based on their successful experience at Suez — the technological jewel of the 19th century. Although the American chief engineer, John Stevens, initially agreed with the French, soon after his arrival in Panama he insisted on a system of locks (e.g., Parker, 2007).

McCullough (1977) speculates that if de Lesseps had changed his plan from sea-level to locks in 1886, the French might have succeeded — and this invites an intriguing parallel with Apollo. Although locks increased the Canal’s complexity and risk, they also reduced its cost and accelerated its schedule. This is similar to NASA’s decision to use rendezvous in lunar orbit to deliver astronauts to the Moon; this likewise increased (operational) complexity and risk, but obviated the need to develop an even bigger, more expensive launch vehicle than the Saturn V (i.e., Nova).

During the American period management challenges included supervising 34,000 construction workers and dealing with the continual threats to their lives (e.g., from accidents), as well as the unparalleled engineering, financial, political, and schedule issues of construction. The Panama Canal construction was motivated and begun by President T. Roosevelt, who made the first trip of any sitting U.S. President outside the U.S., a trip to the Canal. However, President William Howard Taft provided the most active, hands-on participation over the longest period (4 years as president) for the Canal, and President Woodrow Wilson officiated at its opening in 1914. Nevertheless, Theodore Roosevelt is considered “the real builder” of the Panama Canal.

The Apollo Program’s design and technology challenges centered around space transportation and operations, and crew systems. They included: 1) delivering Max Faget’s Mercury capsule to Earth orbit using modified ICBMs (e.g. Atlas for John Glenn in 1962) and returning it using heat shields, 2) testing Buzz Aldrin’s orbital rendezvous techniques in Earth orbit in preparation for John Houbolt’s Lunar Orbit Rendezvous mission mode, and 3) using Wernher von Braun’s monumental Saturn V launch vehicle to send astronauts and hardware to the Moon.

During Apollo, NASA hired 400,000 people from about 20,000 companies and universities. NASA management was subject to two major influences that did not exist for Panama leaders: 1) the urgency of an actual race to the Moon with another superpower, and 2) the immediacy of live television news broadcasts that emphasized the national prestige and symbolic elements of Apollo. The Apollo Moon program was announced by President Kennedy in 1961 and is most closely associated with him. However, Apollo developed substantially under President Johnson, and the lunar landings (1969-72) were accomplished during President Nixon’s administration.

Even being situated within the major economic boom of a Maslow Window and having great leadership is no substitute for the required technologies, systems, and engineering designs. This preparation for the 2015 Maslow Window is currently ongoing by ISS, private entrepreneurs, national laboratories, and elsewhere. It’s highly likely that the management challenges of the 2015 Maslow Window will include close interaction with international partners in all phases of future MEPs.

6. Like Apollo, the Panama Canal vastly elevated American national prestige and was a direct result of international politics and conflicts.

In 1897, the U.S. acquired Hawaii as a US territory, and later as a result of the Spanish-American War, Spain sold the Philippines to the U.S.. Since the Philippines had previously declared their independence from Spain, these events emphasized the growing need for both a Pacific naval presence as well as an Atlantic one for the U.S. (Rohatyn, 2009).

“Remember the Maine, to hell with Spain!”, an Alamo-like cry in response to the deaths of 266 US sailors while anchored in Havana Harbor, helped ignite the Spanish-American War. To replace the Maine, another battleship (USS Oregon) stationed on the Pacific coast rushed 14,700 miles around South America to Cuba — while Teddy Roosevelt, leader of the famous “Rough Riders”, vectored toward Cuban battle himself. Since the Oregon arrived at Cuba two months after war began, it didn’t require much abstract thinking for TR to recognize the Panama Canal’s potential strategic advantages.

Likewise, one long wave later, new President John F. Kennedy found himself embroiled in Cuban adventures early in the Apollo Maslow Window. The first was the ill-fated Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba (4/17/61), followed shortly by JFK’s inspirational May 17, 1961 speech announcing our goal to “land a man on the Moon, before this decade is out…” Even more threatening was the Cuban Missile Crisis of October, 1962 which almost triggered W.W. III. Both served to increase Soviet-U.S. tensions and intensify the competition and global political significance of the Space Race.

Many large, medium, and small space powers sense the international prestige associated with human space exploration of the Moon and planets, and intend to leverage the lessons of America’s history in this pursuit. New Maslow Windows have historically been times of increased international tensions and conflicts (e.g., the 1960s Cold War, the Spanish-American War), and it is likely such conflicts will arise again as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, possibly in connection with space. For example, Cuba has been a focal point during the last two Maslow Windows, and Stratfor suggests it may be again.

5. “To a visitor from Mars it must have seemed that the Western world in 1914 was on the brink of Utopia,” according to historians J. Harrison and R. Sullivan (1966). This pre-WW I zeitgeist was responsible for the Panama Canal, the North and South Pole expeditions, the Titanic, the ascent of President Theodore Roosevelt, and the ebullience of “Panama Fever” and “Pole mania.”

Historical accounts suggest that Teddy “Speak softly but carry a big stick!” Roosevelt may well have been the most ebullient U.S. President in the history of the country, and that the Peary/Panama Maslow Window may have been the most ebullient period in U.S. history.

In addition to his Canal initiative, T.R. was a major supporter of Adm. Robert Peary’s ebullient expeditions to the North Pole. Indeed, Roosevelt has the distinction of being the first and only President to have played major roles in both the major MEP and Great Exploration of his Maslow Window; by the 1960s, the MEP and GE had become integrated into a single project: President Kennedy’s Apollo program.

TR became the 26th President of the U.S. in 1901 while still 42 — currently the youngest person, including John F. Kennedy, to hold the presidency — and left the office in 1909, about five years before the Panama Canal opened, yet he is still known as the one who built the Canal.

The story of TR and the Panama Canal show the power of the long wave in history and for the future. Like JFK, TR appeared at the perfect time — as his Maslow Window was opening — when his ebullient personality and great leadership qualities could most benefit the U.S. and the world. According to Roosevelt himself, what was crucial for the Canal was that “somebody (namely himself) was prepared to act with decision,” (Parker, 2007). However, the last 200 years teach us that, Great leaders help, but the economy rules!

4. The Great Victorian Depression began with the collapse of the Vienna Stock Market on May 9, 1873 (the Panic of 1873) and rapidly spread to America. Also known as “The Long Depression” it continued until the late 1890s, and is considered by some to be worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. It is in this financial context that the French under de Lesseps began work on the Panama Canal in 1881. By 1889 de Lesseps called it quits, their effort a victim of disease, inadequate technology, poor canal design, and not surprisingly, lack of money.

In 1873 the New York Stock Market closed for 10 days attempting to achieve stability, while almost 1/4 of all railroads went belly-up, businesses failed, unemployment reached an estimated 14% (in 1876), and credit crashed.

The power of the long wave is demonstrated by the MEP-related experiences of Kennedy, Roosevelt, and De Lesseps. Kennedy and Roosevelt initiated their MEPs during major economic booms in the decades prior to their long wave peaks (their Maslow Windows) and were successful. De Lesseps initiated his during a descending portion of the long wave and failed. Since TR succeeded in his Panama Canal effort while de Lesseps failed in the same endeavor, is it possible that we are seeing the effects of markedly superior leadership rather than the power of the long wave? For example, could TR have successfully initiated the Canal in 1935? Or could JFK have launched Apollo in 1985 and been successful? In fact, history illuminated this question in the 1980s (see next point).

3. The Panama Canal and the International Space Station are intriguing examples of MEPs that began at unfavorable times during the long wave and were soon discontinued, only to re-emerge later and achieve success. The goal here is to achieve insight into the relative importance of long wave timing versus great leadership, and any other factors that may be important.

For example, President Ronald Reagan first proposed Space Station Freedom in 1984 with an estimated cost of $ 8 B. As congressional support for SSF dwindled, the end of the Cold War led to SSF being included in the International Space Station plan in 1993 with an estimated cost of $ 17.4 B. ISS orbital assembly started in 1998 and will be completed in 2010 for an estimated $ 100 B, including development, assembly, and operations.

Although both the Canal and ISS went through 8-9 year initial phases that did not achieve success, both later re-emerged under “new management” and were successful. Let’s consider the long wave timing of the “initial” phases of the Canal and ISS.

The initial Panama Canal phase was run by de Lesseps and began (in 1881) 22 years before the opening of the Peary/Panama Maslow Window in 1903, and only 4 years before the LW trough in 1885. Likewise, the initial ISS Phase was proposed by President Reagan and began (in 1984) 31 years before the 2015 Maslow Window, a full 13 years before the LW trough in 1997.

Based on long wave considerations, it’s hard to say which project should have suffered most — de Lesseps’ Canal from the Victorian Depression or Reagan’s Station from economic weakness indicated by the Crash of 1987 — but both projects should have been DOA. And they were.

But a historically interesting question was also answered. Not even President Reagan — usually considered to be at least comparable in leadership and charisma to JFK and even TR — could make his MEP materialize in the decade after he proposed it, during a downward portion of the long wave. This suggests that any leadership and/or strategic deficiencies de Lesseps may have exhibited were not the deciding factor in his lack of success — because Reagan’s Station experience suggests that the long wave trumps great leadership.

The “final” phases of both projects are also interesting, because both were successful. I have already noted that, due to perfect long wave timing and his great leadership, TR’s Canal project should have been — and was — a success. However, the ISS final phase began under President Bill Clinton (in 1993) 22 years before the 2015 Maslow Window and 4 years before the long wave trough — the identical long wave circumstances of de Lesseps’ initial Canal project; the one that failed! (Is this a coincidence??)

With identical long wave circumstances, why did de Lesseps’ Canal project fail and the Clinton/Bush II Station succeed?

Globalization? The broad, robust international cooperation flavor of ISS is consistent with the post-WW II, and especially post-Cold War, trends toward increased globalization in technology and science. The space station has picked up momentum ever since it became international.

Although it has not yet had the global psychological impact of either Apollo or the Canal, ISS is regarded by its participants as an “international marvel.” And well it should be: It’s second only to Apollo as the most expensive human project in modern history, it was made by 16 countries (almost “everybody” but China), there are 1 million pounds of hardware in orbit, and over 100 elements and modules were assembled in space.

In short, ISS is both an extraordinary engineering and foreign policy accomplishment that is historically comparable to both the Saturn V and the Panama Canal.

As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, it’s very likely that public appreciation and excitement about ISS will greatly increase.

2. In some ways, the Canal was the ultimate MEP of the last 200 years. Like the Apollo program (see point 6), it was an engineering marvel that required the coordination of huge numbers of people. In terms of ROI, the economic benefits of the Canal for seafaring commerce and strategic uses have been very significant over the last two long waves.

However, to increase the Canal’s capacity and deal with future competition — which now includes the Suez Canal — the Third Set of Locks Project was approved by Panamanians in a 2006 vote by an ebullient majority of 76.8%.

This Panama Canal expansion project will cost $ 5.25 B — about 75% of the original Canal cost — and will receive $ 2.5 B in international funding. Construction will generate thousands of jobs for Panamanians and should be complete by 2014, just in time for the 2015 Maslow Window. Major risks to the plan include finances and whether the traffic model of the business plan is realistic.

Panama recently elected a new president who’s committed to the Canal Expansion Project and continuing economic growth during the world recession. U.S.-educated, conservative Ricardo Martinelli — owner of Panama’s largest supermarket chain — was elected in a landslide with 61% of the vote. President-elect Martinelli’s landslide election is new evidence that “early ebullience” in Panama is continuing to accelerate as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window.

1. The Panama Canal is an immensely important MEP of the early 20th Century Maslow Window that — by itself and in comparison to Apollo and the International Space Station — continues to inform us of the relative importance of the long wave, great leadership, and globalization to the probable success of potential MEPs and Great Explorations during the next 20 years.

The Lessons include:

A. If an MEP starts during a Maslow Window (with wide-spread ebullience) and features a great leader, it will succeed. Examples include the Panama Canal with Teddy Roosevelt, and Apollo with John F. Kennedy.

B. If an MEP starts during the down going portion of the long wave (during a time of counter-ebullience), even with a great leader, it will probably fail. Examples include de Lesseps Panama Canal project, and Reagan’s Space Station.

A reasonable rule of thumb is: “Great leaders help, but the economy rules.”

However, If the conditions of Point B exist, but globalization is a significant factor, the program may survive and eventually even prosper as it approaches the next Maslow Window. The only example is ISS starting in 1993 under President Clinton.

By our definition, ISS is not yet officially an MEP because, although it is recognized by its participants as an “international marvel,” opinion polls indicate the U.S. public has embraced ISS only minimally.

This gives us empirically-based hope that — despite the evidence of the last 200 years — post-Maslow downturns in the long wave will not inevitably terminate spectacular Maslow Windows. And more specifically, that globalization has a significant role to play in mitigating counter-ebullient portions of the long wave for future multi-decade or multi-century space initiatives.

This week we’re celebrating the first anniversary of the launch of 21stCenturyWaves.com!

Time really does fly when you’re having fun. And the global spectacle of the international ascent toward the new 1960s — the 2015 Maslow Window – continues to enthrall.

Thanks to everyone who’s visited this blog. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed it, and we appreciate all your comments and suggestions.

I had never written a continuing weblog before last May, and I’d like to thank all the Contributing Editors — and many other friends and colleagues not listed — for their advice, suggestions, and encouragement!

I’d especially like to thank Rachel Nishimura, because without her efforts 21stCenturyWaves.com might still not exist.

It’s been a dynamic year, to say the least, and the short-term trajecory for NASA remains fuzzy. However, global trends and key events of the last year still point enticingly toward an on-time opening of the 2015 Maslow Window.

We plan to continue evaluating our forecasts in the context of the 10 Wave Guides, and to comment on the events, timelines, and significance of near-term space colonization as it unfolds.

For your enjoyment, here are the
Top 10 Readers’ Favorite Posts of All-Time
(during our first calendar year):

1. Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Wave Forecasts — 10/20/08
2. State of the Wave — 10 Space Trends for 2009 — 1/17/09
3. 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08
4. Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, 9/12/08 — 9/14/08
5. 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08
6. A Vision for the Next 100 Years — Courtesy of George Friedman — 1/10/09
7. Marcel Vs. Fermi — Toward A Possible Convergence — 1/07/09
8. Why the World is Not Going to End — 8/28/08
9. The 1960s Apollo Maslow Window Was “Transformative” — 10/25/08
10. How Close Are We to Space Colonization — 2/1/09

Today’s New York Times (Dave Itzkoff, 5/10/09) waxes philosophical about Star Trek in general and how it relates to the world (and the new movie). Itzkoff gets some of it right but his lack of a long-term perspective is, as usual, the mother of misconceptions. (Happy Mother’s Day, BTW!)

When Spock’s father Mark Lenard heard my personal Star Trek story, he had a decidedly non-Vulcan reaction! Click .

Incidentally, when it comes to Star Trek I have obsessive credentials!! After the original TV series went off I decided it would be fun to have my own collection of Star Trek videos. This was long before they were available on VHS so I had to rendezvous with my TV/VCR each Saturday afternoon (when Star Trek came on in San Diego) and edit the commercials as I taped. It took almost two years but I finally got them all!

By this time I had joined General Dynamics, Convair (later Space Systems) and invited all the engineers and scientists to our Star Trek Party where we had the whole collection on display using 3 television/VCR combinations around the house that ran continuous Star Trek episodes all afternoon and evening! It sounds dumb but everybody loved it.

I eventually got to tell this gi-normous story to one of the Star Trek cast members when Spock’s father Mark Lenard (1924-1996) came down to the Reuben Fleet Science Center in 1988 to do narrations on a planetarium show (“Mars!”) I was helping Dennis Mammana with. Mark initially acted like he’d heard them all, but eventually became reasonably wide-eyed about my story of the 2-year video pursuit of Star Trek! At least he gave me an autographed picture…!

Itzkoff in The Times gets it right about the original Star Trek being “the futuristic fulfillment of John F. Kennedy’s inspirational oratory, in which his New Frontier became ‘the final frontier’.”

Of course, Star Trek was part of the affluence-induced ebullience of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window led by its iconic Camelot-style President, John F. Kennedy. “The budget surpluses and budding space program of the early 1960s gave rise, in the 23rd century, to the utopian United Federation of Planets.” (I still have my UFP T-shirt!)

Actually, I’ve always identified strongly with the Star Trek vision of galactic exploration. In the 1980s I enjoyed attending Star Trek conventions in the LA and San Diego areas but was embarrassed to admit it to my professional colleagues. Unlike most of the fans, it wasn’t the stars of the show that turned me on, it was the wonderful, giddy fantasy of having complete access to the Solar System and being a participant in the interstellar colonization wave!

This weekend, a cable TV show with Leonard Nimoy and several Star Trek cast members, focused on Gene Roddenberry’s enduring “vision” of Star Trek. But the vision itself didn’t begin with Roddenberry; e.g., extraterrestrials were featured in many 1950s movies including “The Day the Earth Stood Still“, and many of the elements of Star Trek appeared first in “Forbidden Planet” and other movies. What Roddenberry did was bring this vision to television on a weekly basis! Many thought it couldn’t succeed, but it’s still gaining momentum 40 years later!

Itzkoff quotes Professor H. Bruce Franklin of Rutgers who suggests that “we’re starting the era of the 1960s in 1967,” presumably in reference to Iraq and Afghanistan and the parallels he sees to Vietnam. “Culturally we’re reinventing the ‘60s, but economically we’re reinventing the ‘30s.” Unfortunately, this misconception is typical of short-term thinking.

First, repetitive patterns in long-term trends in the economy, technology, and exploration – over the last 200 years – indicate we’re entering the 1950s (around 1953 based on the 56 year long wave), not the 1960s as Professor Franklin suggests.

Second, major financial panics are common in the decade just prior to each Maslow Window (except for the post WW II boom near 1949 when there was none), so the Panic of 2008 which gave birth to the current “Great Recession,” should not have been a big surprise.

And third, our current great recession, while severe and painful, is not as dreadful as the Great Depression of the 1930s. Based on the last 200 years of macroeconomic data and historical trends, if we were going to revisit the Great Depression it would have occurred between 1985 and 1987 (based on long wave timing). In fact the Crash of 1987 (“Black Monday”) was the worst crash since 1929 but didn’t lead to a Depression or even a recession because of financial rules adopted during the 1930s.

Finally, Star Trek is unlike a lot of science fiction today because of its optimistic tone. According to Leonard Nimoy, “We need that kind of hope…that kind of confidence in the future.”

He’s right. In fact, Star Trek is a preview of coming attractions. It’s optimism is a prelude to the ebullience that will drive the unprecedented space spectaculars of the 2015 Maslow Window.

We’ve recently suggested that long-term trends in western and science fiction movies point to the the next Space Age. It’s interesting that the new Star Trek movie grossed over $ 72 M this weekend – the first time any Star Trek movie has broken into the Top 30 Opening Weekends of all time. The previous 10 Star Trek movies had opening weekend box offices of only between $ 12 and 30 M.

The new Star Trek movie — after only the first weekend — is already #5 on the Star Trek movie list for total gross; momentarily topped by my favorite one, “Star Trek IV” at nearly $ 110 M. As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, more major-money Star Trek movies will appear as this trend continues.

The Wall Street Journal (3/26/09; Allen Barra) is enticed by the fact that the classic 1960s John Wayne western movie “Rio Bravo” is “still popular and hip at 50,” but the Journal is puzzled about why.

In addition to Wayne it had a special cast — Dean Martin, Ricky Nelson, Angie Dickinson, and is admired by the “in” people; e.g., British critic Robin Wood would choose Rio Bravo as the one film that would “justify the existence of Hollywood,” and Quentin Tarantino (“Pulp Fiction”) admitted in 2007 he used Rio Bravo to screen new girlfriends — “she’d better like it.”

What do movie icons John Wayne and Russell Crowe have in common? Click and . Are they focal points in the pop culture long wave?

The Journal asks why such a “simple western with an unremarkable plot,” has become the “rarest of films — both popular and hip?” And even more to the point, “Why two generations of fans have loved Rio Bravo without caring at all about its political implications?”

Although less celebrated than Rio Bravo, we could also add the 2007 remake of “3:10 to Yuma” starring Russell Crowe, that is also separated by 50 years from the original movie with Glenn Ford (1916-2006), also a legendary star. And in a recent post (“Klaatu Barada Nikto“), we were struck by the fact that one of the most memorable science fiction movies of the 1950s was also recently remade about one long wave after the original.

We would not be surprised at pop culture elements resonating with the 56 year cycle because of the “omnipresent financial, technological, and cultural influences that long-term fluctuations in the economy have on society during similar portions of the wave; e.g., both the original and sequel of “The Day the Earth Stood Still” appeared 7 – 8 years before their Maslow Window opened.”

Plus, the fact that Strauss & Howe generational cycles are correlated with long waves and that popular culture elements have been in synch with long waves in the past, suggest to us that our working hypothesis deserves more attention.

In 2003, R. Philip Loy commented that the American Western frontier has “enthralled the American imagination” and that movies “quickly became the primary genre through western myths and legends were communicated.” Loy is concerned that Western films through the 1960s reflected “more wishful thinking than history,” but to us this is less important because we’re interested in films as indicators of the mindset and interests of the American public. Our goal is to extract long-term cultural trends from the films rather than to evaluate their historical accuracy.

Some long-term trends in cinema are apparent. For example…

1. “Hollywood westerns of the 1930s and 1940s were positive expressions of … the frontier experience, and they were useful as the nation came to grips with the national challenges of the two decades,” (Loy,2003). This included western outlaws being portrayed as victims of Depression-style oppressive characters. But in response to WW II, “westerns reminded Americans that they were heirs to hardy pioneers and resolute frontier sheriffs.” This is consistent with counter-ebullient, “Aspirin Age” times when the long wave was heading from the 1930s Great Depression to its trough in 1941.

2. “Reflecting the renaissance of national pride during the Kennedy era, early-1960s westerns returned to the images, myths, and legends that had shaped the genre of an earlier era,” (Loy, 2003). Examples include John Wayne’s heroic depiction of “The Alamo” (1960), and perhaps the most “epic expression” of the western frontier, “How the West Was Won” (1962). Frontier themes in westerns were responses to the opening of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window with its unparalleled affluence and ebullience, iconic figures (e.g., President Kennedy), and its new Space Age.

3. While Western films had been omnipresent during the 1950s (e.g., see Grossman, 1981), between the late 1960s and 1985 “western films nearly disappeared.” Loy (2003) attributes this to reinterpretations of American western history by “New West” writers, although after 1985 westerns “saw a mild resurgence.” Currently, this up trend continues and includes even traditional westerns on the cable TV Western Channel. During the 1950s post-WW II boom many people experienced elevated states in Maslow’s heirarchy and resonated strongly with frontier themes in western films. As the long wave peaked and began to decline in the late 1960s — rapidly bringing the Apollo Maslow Window to a close — Americans and others returned to lower Maslow states and interest in westerns disappeared.

4. In addition to frontier themes in westerns, movie portrayals of the military and the police appear to have fluctuated along with long waves. According to Powers et al. (1996), “since the mid-1960s, the U.S. military is more likely to be portrayed negatively than positively…In Hollywood movies since the mid-1960s, the police have become increasingly like the criminals they face.” For example, their quantitative thematic analysis of movies shows that from 1946 to 1965, the military was portrayed as follows: Positively-40%, Mixed-40%, Negatively-20%; while from 1966 to 1975 the military was portrayed: Positively-12%, Mixed-62%, Negatively-25%. But from 1976 to 1990, Powers et al. find “the most critical depictions of the military,” Positively-27%, Mixed-40%, and Negatively-33%. It appears that military and police-oriented movies are responding to the post-Maslow Window collapse of societal ebullience much like movies (see Point 1 above) did previously during the analogous, counter-ebullient “Aspirin Age.”

Because frontier themes in westerns and science fiction movies of the 1950s were harbingers of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window, it’s reasonable to expect that similar trends in cinema will repeat as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window. The recent resurgence of “Rio Bravo” and remake of “3:10 to Yuma”, and the emergence of mostly-realistic movies like “Red Planet” (2000) and “Mission to Mars” (2000) suggest this trend may already exist.

I often get questions about long waves.

Because long waves in the economy appear to be the fundamental driver of great explorations, macro-engineering projects, and even major wars over the last 200 years, I’ve added 10 links to the blogroll that have been especially useful to me in understanding long waves. These can serve as a long wave primer within the specialities of interest (e.g., demographics) to you.

Many other interesting long wave sites exist. Your questions and comments, and suggestions for additions are very welcome.

1. Brian J. L. Berry — Long Waves, Economics, and Politics.

Dr. Berry is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and has been a professor at the University of Chicago and Harvard. Currently he is the Dean of the School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences at the University of Texas at Dallas.

He’s written one of the most compelling books on long waves: Long-Wave Rhythms… If you click on the book image on his website you’ll get a better idea of what’s involved; you can also search some of his articles. His writing is sophisticated, detailed, and satisfyingly authoritative.

2. Cesare Marchetti – Technology, Economics, and the 56 Year Energy Cycle.

Originally trained as a physicist and since 1974 a Senior Scientist with IIASA in Austria, Marchetti has impressive insight into a wide range of fields.

I suggest you start with this New Scientist paper where he touches on the 56 year energy cycle discovered by Hugh Stewart — but almost anything of his will expand your perspectives.

The 56 year energy cycle was discovered by Hugh B. Stewart in 1989; his book is available HERE. Stewart’s book is data-rich and impressive.

I first read about the 56 year energy cycle in Predictions by a former university and corporate physicist, Theodore Modis, Ph.D. In Chapter 8 he reveals the secret.

3. Christian Zimmermann — Real Business Cycle Home Page.

Dr. Zimmermann, an associate professor of economics at the University of Connecticut, runs the Quantitative Macroeconomics and Real Business Cycle Home Page.

4. Edward Cheung — Long Waves and Demographics.

Mr Cheung has published an extraordinary book: Baby Boomers, Generation X and Social Cycles. For clarity and completeness, I highly recommend it.

5. George Modelski – Long Cycle World Politics Theory.

Dr. Modelski is Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the University of Washington.

He maintains the Evolutionary World Politics Home Page. This is a vast resource in many areas including globalization, democratization, and world system history. A good place to start is, Global Political Evolution, Long Cycles, and K – Waves.

6. Ian Gordon – Longwave Group and Economics.

Located in British Columbia, Canada, Mr. Gordon uses long wave theory and data as the basis for his investment business. His site presents a rich source of material on long wave basics.

7. Joshua Goldstein — Long Wave Theory and War.

Currently, professor emeritus at American University and research scholar at the University of Massachusetts, Dr. Goldstein is author of the best-selling textbook, International Relations.

He’s written extensively and for decades on long waves and war, and how they interact. You might want to start with his 2005 article, The Predictive Power of Long Wave Theory…

8. Michael A. Alexander — Long Waves and Generational Cycles.

Dr. Alexander is a research engineer at the Pharmacia Corp in Kalamazoo, MI.

His seminal book, The Kondratiev Cycle: A Generational Interpretation, has shown that long waves and Strauss & Howe generational cycles are correlated.

9. NATO Advanced Workshop on Long Waves, War, and Global Security (2005).

This volume, from an international conference in Portugal, presents state-of-the-art long wave data and analysis.

Significant theoretical support for long waves goes back to the 1950s when National Medal of Technology winner and MIT Sloan Professor Emeritus Jay Forrester developed the System Dynamics National Model. When their model displayed a “50-year rise and fall of economic actitivy” they first checked for errors, but rapidly realized it was a “surprise discovery.”

10. Strauss and Howe — Long Waves, Generations, and History.

Neil Howe and William Strauss (d. 2007) wrote Generations in 1991.

Their current website explores “what the cycles of history tell us about America’s next rendezvous with destiny.”

World-famous explorer Tom Avery — the youngest Briton to have reached both North and South Poles on foot — has written a splendid book (To The End of the Earth; 2009) celebrating Admiral Robert Peary’s great exploration of the North Pole that culminated in April, 1909 — 100 years ago. For decades there has been controversy about how close Peary actually got to the pole — which Avery’s expedition has helped to resolve — but there has been none about the ebullient nature of early polar exploration.

In 2005, British explorer Tom Avery saved the 100-year-old legacy of Peary’s Great Polar Exploration, as the whole world was spinning beneath his feet. Click .

Attaining the North Pole during the early 20th Century Maslow Window was the equivalent of being the first man on the Moon during the 1960s. According to Avery, reaching the North Pole was “one of the most momentous achievements in the history of the human race.” By 1898, Peary’s explorations were already achieving global recognition including gold medals from both the American Geographical Society and the Royal Geographic Society; the latter called him “without exception, the greatest glacial traveller in the world.” And typical of the ebullience of the time, Peary’s life and family were secondary to achieving the pole; after accidentally snapping off 6 toes while removing his boots, Peary quipped, “a few toes aren’t much to give to achieve the Pole.”

“Pole mania” and “Panama fever” were prominent during the first decade of the 20th Century. The last 200 years show that such remarkable behavior is typical of Maslow Windows when major, twice-per-century economic booms produce widespread affluence-induced ebullience. This catapults many to elevated levels in Maslow’s heirarchy where large technology projects (e.g., Panama Canal) and great explorations (e.g., Peary’s polar expeditions) become almost irresistible.

The role of President Theodore Roosevelt — the John F. Kennedy Camelot-style icon of the early 20th century — was important throughout the Peary/Panama Maslow Window. For example, after leaving Manhattan in July, 1908, Peary’s ship “The Roosevelt” stopped in Long Island where, after spending two hours inspecting it President Roosevelt announced, “I believe in you, Peary.” This was only a few years after Roosevelt had started the U.S. phase of building the Panama Canal. Indeed, after graduating from college as a civil engineer and joining the US Navy, Peary had almost become focused on the Panama Canal himself, when he led 150 men in a detailed survey of Nicaragua for a possible transcontinental canal.

The momentous nature of Peary’s great exploration of the “horizontal Everest” –which the North Pole is often called because of its extreme dangers — is evidenced by the continuing 100-year controversy about how close Peary actually got to the North Pole. In his 1988 book, British explorer Sir Wally Herbert — who reached the North Pole overland in 1968-69 — concluded that Peary never got closer than 60 miles, and found Peary’s alleged 26 miles per day speeds over the final 5 days to be unrealistic.

Although the National Geographic Society soon refuted Herbert’s claims, Tom Avery decided to duplicate Peary’s North Pole expedition to settle the argument. And he did just that in 2005.

Using Peary-type equipment, including dog teams and wooden sledges, on April 26 Avery’s GPS finally read 89deg 59′.999N and he ebulliently yelled, “We’ve done it!…The time was exactly 7:32 am. We had beaten Peary to the North Pole with barely four hours to spare.”

According to Gilbert Grosvenor, President of the National Geographic Society, “Their 37-day dash to the North Pole has wiped out ninety-six years of doubt about Peary’s feat.”

This is an updated end-of-April list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites during April, and II) Favorites over the Last 7 Days.

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 5/1/09

I. APRIL — Readers’ Favorites

1) World Future Society Forecasts for the Next Maslow Window — 3/31/09
2) Space Daily, Gila Bend, and the Next Space Age — 4/10/09
3) Why Wasn’t There a Great Depression and a World War Between 1985 and 2001? — 4/21/09
4) How Close Are We to Space Colonization — 2/1/09
5) The Shocking Truth About the Father of the Space Station — 3/28/09

II. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) Space Daily, Gila Bend, and the Next Space Age — 4/10/09
2) The Shocking Truth About the Father of the Space Station — 3/28/09
3) Why Wasn’t There a Great Depression and a World War Between 1985 and 2001? — 4/21/09
4) World Future Society Forecasts for the Next Maslow Window — 3/31/09
5) Galaxy Exploration and Development — Steve Durst’s Approach — 4/28/09