In this video, pop princess Britney Spears appears on the Late Show with David Letterman to present her “Top Ten Ways The Country Would Be Different If Britney Spears Were President.”

Britney has a proposal for future lunar fun-seekers… Click .

Most of her suggestions are pretty silly. However her #3 idea at 1:56 shows unusually good judgment. She proposes to “Challenge U.S. to put a nightclub on the moon by the end of the decade.”

This race to put the first nightclub on the moon will surely stimulate the economy, promote innovation, and lead to the ebullience this country needs to get back on the moon during the 2015 Maslow Window — this time with style! Personally, I would be thrilled to do my freakdancing in 1/6 gravity.

Good call President-To-Be Spears!

To see most of Britney, Click HERE.

This State of the Wave updates my January list of “10 Space Trends for 2009” and synthesizes new insights into Obama’s presidency as well as prospects for the approaching new Space Age in 2015.

This post marks a significant departure from my previous view of the 2015 Maslow Window. Indeed, the weight of new data and interpretations opens up the possibility that the 2015 decade may be even more than merely an analog of the spectacular 1960s Apollo Maslow Window.

With the Apollo Moon project’s continuing success and his unparalleled Great Society programs, Lyndon B. Johnson (2nd from left) was on track to become one of the most celebrated presidents in U.S. history, until Vietnam ended his career. Click .

The New York Times recently (8/23/09; Peter Baker) suggested — in “L.B.J. All the Way” — that Obama’s “presidency may ultimately be decided in the rugged terrain of Afghanistan.”

Let’s be honest: This is not the most insightful idea I’ve ever seen in the Times, but at least it was inspirational (to me) and resulted in “The State of the Wave…” that you see here.

The Times’ approach strikes me as typical of continued unfairness to Obama from most of the media, much like his supporters who, ever since the campaign began, unrealistically projected their near-messianic hopes and aspirations on him. Admittedly, Obama encouraged this premature hero worship, like any politician trying to get elected would, but for the Times to draw a parallel this early in Obama’s term between Afghanistan and the Vietnam War of President Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ) — who, along with President John F. Kennedy (JFK), presided over much of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window — is really a stretch.

Before we dive in let me make a couple contextual points:

Because of impressive macroeconomic and historical evidence of the last 200 years, I have been compelled to admit to myself that, in some key ways, I am essentially an “economic determinist,” — but not in the usual sense. With me, it refers only to the fact that over the last 200+ years, long waves in the economy enable clusters of large engineering projects (e.g., Panama Canal) and great human explorations (e.g., Apollo Moon), as well as major wars (e.g., W. W. I), exclusively during rhythmic, twice-per-century pulses of ebullient activity (called Maslow Windows). This long-range perspective provides unique insights that fundamentally motivate this post, and most others on this blog.

Secondly, in 21stCenturyWaves.com the focus is on evaluating our technology and space forecasts in the context of key events and global trends using the 10 Wave Guides, not to express preferences for politicians or parties. We seek to identify what is most likely to happen, not what should happen or what we would like to happen. In essence, this strives to be a reality-based blog, even when we set sail into the far future.

This is such a remarkable time — economically and geopolitically — in U.S. and world history, that the last 200 years point to really only 2 likely Scenarios for the next 15 – 20 years:

Scenario 1: The 1960s John F. Kennedy (JFK) Replay … In which the economic and geopolitical trends of 1945 – 1960 reappear about one long wave later — between 2000 and 2015 — including the end of a world war, a great economic boom, and the election of a charismatic JFK-style Democratic president, that trigger a Super Apollo Maslow Window (2015 – 2025) featuring a Camelot-like zeitgeist.
Or…
Scenario 2: The 1900s Teddy Roosevelt (TR) Encore … In which the economic and geopolitical trends of 1888 – 1903 reappear about two long waves later — between 2000 and 2015 — including a financial panic followed by a major recession, and the election of a charismatic TR-style Republican president, that trigger a Super Apollo Maslow Window (2015 – 2025) featuring a Panama Fever-style zeitgeist.

Until recently, I have seriously considered only the “JFK Replay” as the nominal scenario for the 2015 Maslow Window, but recent economic and political events have convinced me to also consider the “TR Encore.”

It’s of particular interest that in both 2015 Maslow Window scenarios above, the key difference is which political party provides leadership, NOT whether major unprecedented technology and space activities (that I’ve estimated costing between $ 1 T and 3 T, current USD) will occur. In fact, based on macroeconomic data and historical trends of the last 200+ years, we can expect they will.

But why does the politics differ between the JFK Replay and the TR Encore?

History and common sense suggest that the state of the economy is a major influence on the outcome of U.S. presidential and congressional elections. This was concisely expressed by Bill Clinton’s staffer James Carville during the 1992 campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid.” In a similar vein, the Wall Street Journal (6/4/09) has suggested the Obama presidency will “rise or fall” on the economy.

In U.S. history, major wars can also sway elections. For example, the end of W. W. II in 1945 resulted in a post-War boom that was uninterrupted by a 1929-style financial panic, and culminated in the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window — a boom of unprecedented, widespread affluence.

To discern which Scenario is more relevant to the 2015 Maslow Window we compare the economic and geopolitical situation since 2000 with the 25 years preceding 1970 and also 1913.

Since 2000:
We experienced the financial Panic of 2008 and are still suffering from a major global recession. Although Iraq and Afghanistan have been traumatic wars, there was no major W. W. II – style global war in the 1980s or 1990s or since 2000.
1945 – 1970:
There was no 1929-style financial panic during this interval. The Vietnam War/Cold War was a major, international war for America.
1888 – 1913:
The financial Panic of 1893 was followed by the major 1890s recession; there was no major W. W. II – style global war during this interval.

It appears that the decade just before the Peary/Panama Maslow Window (1903-1913) of TR shares more key elements in common with our current trajectory toward 2015 than the decade just prior to the 1960 Apollo Maslow Window of JFK.

This long-term analysis presents us with a powerful window into the future and suggests real political dangers confront Obama.

For example:
1) Some commentators suggest that unless Obama is able to reduce unemployment below 10% by the next presidential election (2012) he risks defeat. In a previous post, I plotted recent unemployment rates against those near the Panic of 1893 (as estimated by Christina Romer; see #2 below). If the 1890s are a good economic model for current circumstances, the 2012 goal will be a close call.

2) Published economic research by the current head of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors — Christina Romer — raises doubts about Obama’s policy of major government spending to end the recession. The Wall Street Journal (8/21/09; Alan Reynolds) quotes Professor Romer’s 1999 study (J. Econ. Perspect.) that between the pre-WW I era and the era of big government (post-WW II), “recessions have become only slightly less severe…and recessions have not become noticeably shorter,” in fact post-WW II recessions are one month longer. WSJ concludes that, based on economic history since 1887, “bigger government appears to produce only bigger and longer recessions.” If this is true, Obama’s large stimulus/bailout packages and large federal budgets will make the 2012 goal hard to achieve.

Obama’s current economic and political difficulties suggest that the chronology of the 1890s may be relevant to the 2015 Maslow Window.

1893 – 1897: Grover Cleveland, the first Democrat elected after the Civil War, became president during the 1890s recession right after the Panic of 1893. Although elected with a bi-partisan majority, his policies during the 1890s recession were generally unpopular. His party deserted him and nominated William Jennings Bryan in 1896.
1897 – 1901: Republican William McKinley defeated Bryan calling himself “the advance agent of prosperity.” In 1900, McKinley again campaigned against Bryan. While Bryan inveighed against imperialism, McKinley quietly stood for “the full dinner pail.” McKinley won again but was assassinated in September, 1901.
1901 – 1909: Theodore Roosevelt, not quite 43, became the youngest President in the Nation’s history. He brought new excitement and power to the Presidency, as he vigorously led Congress and the American public toward progressive reforms and a strong foreign policy. Roosevelt steered the United States more actively into world politics. He liked to quote a favorite proverb, “Speak softly and carry a big stick. . . . ” Aware of the strategic need for a shortcut between the Atlantic and Pacific, Roosevelt ensured the construction of the Panama Canal. He won the Nobel Peace Prize for mediating the Russo-Japanese War, reached a Gentleman’s Agreement on immigration with Japan, and sent the Great White Fleet on a goodwill tour of the world. Some of Theodore Roosevelt’s most effective achievements were in conservation.

Teddy Roosevelt presided over perhaps the most ebullient time — the Peary/Panama Maslow Window — in U.S. history.

Here are the Bottom Lines:

1) Following decades with wildly different economic and geopolitical circumstances — the Maslow Windows of both TR and JFK featured spectacular, unprecedented great explorations (polar expeditions, Apollo to the Moon) and massive MEPs (Panama Canal, Apollo/Saturn V space infrastructure). They will be even greater during the 2015 Maslow Window.

2. Obama is not LBJ largely because of the vastly divergent economic worlds they each inherited. During the greatest economic boom up to that time, LBJ inaugurated the Great Society and successfully built the Apollo Moon program that JFK started. Such things are much more difficult for Obama to contemplate now because of the global recession and and its limited political vistas.

3. Obama faces significant economic and political challenges during the next few years. If he does not succeed, he may become Grover Cleveland instead of Lyndon Johnson, and Scenario #2 — the TR Encore — would be likely after 2015. Obama’s success would point to a JFK/Camelot-style Maslow Window.

21stCenturyWaves.com’s Tentative Forecast is … Given our current economic and geopolitical trajectory toward 2015 and the patterns of the last 200 years: Scenario #2 is more likely. However Obama still has time to reverse this trend and to shape the 2015 Maslow Window in his likeness.

This is a recent sample of the interesting ways 21stCenturyWaves.com is being portrayed on the web. Apologies if I couldn’t mention you this time.

Thanks to everyone who’s visited 21stCenturyWaves.com.

Huffington Post
Thanks for linking to:
State of the Wave — “Economy Has Hit Bottom”.

The Mars Society
Thanks for featuring:
State of the Wave — Public Support for Space is Robust

Hyperweek
Thanks for featuring:
Xunantunich and the Large Hadron Collider Support Maslow Window Forecasts

Res Communis, University of Mississippi
Thanks for linking to:
South Korea — Preparing for the New Global Space Race

Earth for Tomorrow
Thanks for linking to:
Fermi vs Malthus: A Sustainability Solution?

Slip into Something Victorian
Thanks for linking to:
10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space

To Boldly Go Forth: Space, Technology and Society
Thanks for linking to:
The Right Stuff, Celebrities, and and Sarkar’s Social Cycles

Portal to the Universe
Thanks for featuring:
Kepler, Carl Sagan, and the Guzman Prize — Our Century-Long Search for Space Aliens

Science Blips Daily Radar
Thanks for featuring:
Tom Wolfe’s “Giant Leap to Nowhere”

Current Events Site
Thanks for featuring:
The Secret of Why Apollo Was a “Giant Step, Full Stop”

Ice In Space
I enjoyed your discussion of Maslow Windows…

Special thanks to Dr. Sean for vectoring me toward this week’s Newsweek.

Newsweek this week (8/24 & 31/09) features “In Search of Aliens” on its cover and uses NASA’s new $ 600 M Kepler spacecraft as our most recent attempt. On March 6 Kepler became the first spacecraft ever launched whose mission is to directly detect Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of nearby stars.

This is huge.

Kepler’s mission is among the most important in the history of space science. Click .

Although early science results already exist — the HAT-P-7 light curves — Kepler’s monumental significance is not yet fully appreciated by the global community. However, it will grow in global esteem as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window because Kepler feeds directly into 2 of the basic rationales driving near-term space colonization: 1) detection and international exploration of Earth-like planets, and 2) discovery of extraterrestrial life, especially intelligent space aliens. And it motivates the third: Human settlement of the solar system and beyond.

As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, the way we currently search for extrasolar Earthlike planets (including their possible residents!) is with Kepler. But by 2015 we’ll have an even more sophisticated and powerful tool: the Terrestrial Planet Finder!

Of course, our search for space aliens didn’t start with Kepler, it goes back at least to the late 19th century discovery of canali on Mars by the Italian astronomer Giovanni Schiaparelli. And as we scan the last century it becomes apparent that the public’s interest in space aliens has been modulated by the long wave. During times of economic upswings (especially during Maslow Windows) there is great interest in detecting and communicating with space aliens, but as the long wave plummets toward its trough between Maslow Windows, the public becomes more negative toward them.

During the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window, astronomer Frank Drake launched ebullient radio searches for messages from space aliens, and popularized the “Drake Equation” — familiar to every introductory astronomy student — that attempted to estimate N: the number of high-tech civilizations in our Galaxy.

Interest in Drake’s seminal work encouraged the development of extraordinary NASA concepts for advanced searches (Project Cyclops). Bernard Oliver’s favorite featured a phased array of one thousand, 100 – meter radio attennas covering an area 10 km in diameter! Now that’s 1960s ebullience! It’s scope was exceeded only by its pricetag: $ 6 to 10 B.

Toward the end of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window, a directed beam from the Kelvans, Kelinda and Rojan, in the Andromeda Galaxy could have theoretically been detected by Cyclops. Click .
© 1968 Paramount Pictures

Of course Project Cyclops was never built because it broke a fundamental rule for Macro-Engineering Projects: Never propose a multi-billion dollar MEP toward the end of a Maslow Window. The last 3 Apollo missions had already been canceled, and as the Apollo program wound down, there was little political or public interest in another MEP — no matter how exciting — that cost 1/2 of Apollo.

One of the most ebullient scientists of the late 20th century and maybe the best science popularizer of all time, Carl Sagan was not one to avoid the infectious ebullience of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window. In 1963 he wrote a scientific paper (Planetary and Space Science Vol. 11, May, 1963, pp. 485-498) asserting that space aliens could come here (and probably had already done so) in real interstellar spaceships and would be aided by relativisitic time dilation!

Although Cyclops became an early casualty of the collapsing Apollo Maslow Window, a much smaller version was eventually funded by NASA. Unfortunately, it was canceled by Congress in 1993 — a victim of the “Giggle Factor” as constituents began to ridicule the public-funded search for space aliens. This was only a few years before the long wave trough — an anti-ebullient time for sure.

During perhaps the most ebullient decade in US history — the Peary/Panama Maslow Window (1903-1913) — space alien fans had a field day. Lowell Observatory was founded to study Mars and its presumably modern, canal-based civilization. The Guzman Prize was offered to anyone who could prove contact with space aliens; But they couldn’t be from Mars because that was considered too easy! But that’s hardly surprising because the Wall Street Journal published an article in 1907 on “the proof by astronomical observations . . . that conscious, intelligent human life exists upon the planet Mars.” And some ebullient folks even suggested we should light huge fires at night to signal the Martians directly.

By contrast, during the Great Depression in 1938 — almost exactly one 56 year long wave before Congress canceled SETI — Orson Welles did his famous radio broadcast of the War of the Worlds, in which the Martians invaded New Jersey. It reportedly resulted in panic and mass hysteria.

Near long wave troughs we ridicule search attempts for space aliens (and cancel funding) or imagine the aliens actually attacking us; either way we’re pretty negative toward them. But as we approach Maslow Windows, such as the one in 2015, interest in space aliens picks up.

Just ask Newsweek.

Grandiose structures with cosmic aspirations have a lot in common, regardless of when they were constructed, according to the New York Times (8/9/09; James Glanz). Built around 1500 years ago, Xunantunich, the sacred Mayan pyramid, was the product of a lofty, cosmically sophisticated society that mysteriously disappeared.

Xunantunich and its modern cousin, the Large Hadron Collider, point tantalizingly toward the spectacular 2015 Maslow Window. Click

According to Dr. Richard Leventhal, an anthropologist with the University of Pennsylvania and an authority on Xunantunich,

All of these multigenerational projects are based upon a strong and ongoing belief system in how the world works.

As long as that world view remains in tact, the project continues and is updated by each generation, but if it falters, “all bets are off.” This mirrors the views of 1960s sociologist Fred Polak who cited 2000 years of evidence supporting the importance of a positive vision of the future to the viability of a civilization.

With the Mayans we are apparently seeing evidence of a civilization-level collapse, but Xunantunich itself also speaks of the enduring power of the cosmos to motivate humans toward large, state-of-the-art engineering projects — supporting a major theme and expectation of 21stCenturyWaves.com as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window.

Glanz, himself “a former physicist,” seems to flirt with an anti-technology bias by suggesting that Xunantunich and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) “have something in common: overreach.” However, Nobel prize-winning physicist Steven Weinberg counters, “I don’t see it in quite those apocalyptic terms.”

And of course Weinberg is right. In reality, despite it’s current technical snags, LHC is becoming a stunning Macro-Engineering Project (MEP) that fits the patterns of MEPs for the last 200 years and points to even bigger things during the 2015 Maslow Window.

Our technical definition of an MEP requires more than just state-of-the-art technology and a large price tag: it must also inspire and excite a large international audience, like the Saturn V Moon rocket of the 1960s did and the Panama Canal still does. As I noted before, in the case of the Superconducting Super Collider, this demand for global interest was one of the nails in its coffin, because major particle accelerators are buried underground and thus hard for the public to see and fall in love with. However, it appears that as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, the LHC is overcoming this limitation based on its pop culture references — e.g., searching for the “God Particle,” and speculations about small LHC-produced black holes that might gobble up the Earth — and its long wave timing.

Construction of LHC was approved in 1995, near the trough of the 56 year energy cycle, so the project benefitted from the generally upward trend of the long wave until recently. However, cost overruns, budget cuts, and engineering difficulties have driven the cost up to $ 9 B and delayed the opening date to September 10, 2008. Over the last 200 years, this is typical of MEPs that originate far from Maslow Windows.

Rather than comparing LHC to Xunantunich, it is much more interesting to compare it to analogous MEPs of the last 200 years, especially if we want a glimpse of the 2015 Maslow Window.

Each Maslow Window of the last 200 years — except for the first one, the Lewis & Clark Maslow Window — features one primary MEP and one or more secondary ones. For example, the Peary/Panama Maslow Window (1903-13) features the Panama Canal as its primary MEP, and the Titanic ship as a secondary MEP.

In the context of the last 200 years, the timing, technological complexity, and cost of LHC suggest it is a secondary MEP associated with a much larger primary MEP that will appear during the 2015 Maslow Window. LHC appears to be analogous to the Mackinac Bridge (connecting the peninusulas of Michigan), a secondary MEP of the 1950s that preceded the primary MEP — the Apollo/Saturn V transportation infrastructure — of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window.

I have previously estimated the cost of the 2015 Maslow Window’s primary MEP as between $ 1T and 3T, based on a simple extrapolation of 20th Century MEP costs into the 21st century. (This assumes rapid economic growth characteristic of Maslow Windows as we exit our current major recession in a few years and reignite the “greatest global boom ever” that was interrupted by the Panic of 2008.)

Using simple ratios between the costs of primary and secondary MEPs for each Maslow Window, and assuming that LHC is a secondary MEP of the 2015 Maslow Window, allows another interesting estimate of the cost of the primary MEP after 2015.

Here are the primary MEP to secondary MEP cost ratios for the last 3 Maslow Windows:

Dr. Livingstone/Suez Maslow Window:
Suez Canal cost/Great Eastern ship cost = 50

Peary/Panama Maslow Window:
Panama Canal cost/Titanic ship cost = 50

Apollo Moon Program Maslow Window:
Apollo Moon cost/Mackinac Bridge cost= 200

If we multiply the cost of LHC by these factors we estimate the cost of the primary MEP during the 2015 Maslow Window.

The primary to secondary MEP cost ratios of the 19th and early 20th century Windows suggest a 2015 Window primary MEP cost of $ 0.5 T.

And the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window ratio suggests about $ 2 T.

This cost range — $ 0.5 to 2 T — is close to the earlier range ($ 1T to 3T) that I obtained from simple extrapolation of primary MEP costs.

One could argue that the most modern (e.g., 1960s) cost ratio might be more characteristic of the 21st Century, which would favor 2015 MEP costs of between $ 1T to 3T, like my previous estimates.

21stCenturyWaves.com is again happily participating in the Carnival of Space #116.

This week the Carnival is at Habitation Intention.

I especially enjoyed Cumbrian Sky’s funeral for manned Moon and Mars missions — although I’m not particularly concerned by it.

Two things:

1) We’re near, at, or just past the bottom of the worst recession since the Great Depression. And it will take years to recover. So naturally gloom and doom prevail. But money’s not the real problem; we’ve just spent trillions of dollars on stimulus packages and bailouts….remember? It’s not money, it’s our national priorities, as usual. And they won’t change until something else does…

2) The good news is that about twice per century over the last 200 years there’s an amazing pulse of human exploration and major engineering activity that’s unparalleled for its time. The last pulse (i.e., a Maslow Window) was in the 1960s with Apollo, and before that was perhaps the most ebullient decade in U.S. history — when Teddy Roosevelt led the U.S. into the Peary/Panama Maslow Window. These extraordinary pulses extend all the way back to Lewis and Clark. And the next one is due near 2015.

Y.E. Yang becomes the latest symbol of South Korea’s ebullience! Click .

What’s interesting is that every Maslow Window except one (the Apollo decade) was preceded by a financial panic and deep recession — just like our current one — which is similar to the Panic of 1893 and the 1890s Recession. And remember, it was followed immediately by Teddy Roosevelt and his extraordinary Maslow Window. That’s likely to happen again within a few years, and then the really important change will occur: Our attitudes will become ebullient and for a short time, based on the last 200 years, we will believe that almost anything is possible.

Want a current example of ebullience? I suggest South Korea. They are already recovering from the global recession. Plus they’re preparing to launch their first satellite from their home space center on August 19. And last Sunday, Y.E. Yang of South Korea became Asia’s first male winner of a major golf championship, the U.S. PGA Championship. Yang did something no one else has ever done: He beat Tiger Woods, probably the best golfer of all time, despite the fact that Tiger started the final round with a lead over the field. Previously, when Woods led starting the final round of a professional tournament, he was 14 – 0.

Now that’s ebullience! Congratulations to everyone in South Korea and good luck on the 19th!

This is an updated mid-month list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites over the Last 7 Days, and II) All-Time Favorites (the first daily post was published on 5/11/08).

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 8/15/09

I. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) Was the 1960s Apollo Moon Program an Anomaly? — 2/3/09
2) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
3) South Korea — Preparing for the New Global Space Race — 8/3/09
4) Are Great Explorations Driven by Keynesian “Animal Spirits” On Steroids? — 2/15/09
5) Tom Wolfe’s Giant Leap to Nowhere — 7/20/09

II. ALL-TIME — Readers’ Favorites

1) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Window Forecasts — 10/20/08
2)10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
3) Was the 1960s Apollo Moon Program an Anomaly? — 2/3/09
4) Tom Wolfe’s Giant Leap to Nowhere — 7/20/09
5) State of the Wave — 10 Space Trends for 2009 — 1/17/09

Recent opinion polls suggest the American public’s support for the space program is remarkably resilient, especially considering the current global recession.

Gallup shows that public support for space has increased since 1979. Click gallup1.doc.

Just prior to Apollo 11’s 40th anniversary (July 10-12) Gallup found that 58% of respondents believe “the space program has brought enough benefits to justify its costs,” while only 28% did not. This number has increased since the late 1970s when, 10 years after the first Moon landing, only 41% agreed with Gallup’s statement; it was 47% in 1994 and increased to 55% in 1999.

This positive progression is what we’d expect as we approach the excitement of the 2015 Maslow Window, but it is especially impressive given that we’re apparently at the bottom of the worst global contraction since the Great Depression.

Dan Cano, a consultant and former political appointee in NASA, recently summarized the attitudes of many toward space costs (Space News 8/3/09),

While I fully appreciate that the international space station is a technological marvel and necessary steppingstone to learn how to live and work in space for longer trips to Mars than the Moon, it is not necessary and sufficient by itself. We need to be going somewhere. And when I hear that our nation cannot afford such journeys, I have to ask: Why can our government afford so many other things? Look at how little is spent in space exploration today compared to 40 years ago, and compare that investment and what the achievement meant to our nation and the world, even 40 years later.

Gallup also found that the fading memories of some Baby Boomers are not quite as fired up as the imaginations of those too young to have witnessed the Moon landing themselves. While 63% of those 18-49 think the space program’s costs are justified, only 53% of those 50 and over concur. Here we are beginning to see the support of 80 million Millennials (born 1980 to 1995) — who love technology and progress — for space.

Gallup’s July summary is revealing.

Americans remain broadly supportive of space exploration and government funding of it. In fact, Americans are somewhat more likely to believe the benefits of the space program justify its costs at the 40th anniversary of the moon landing than they were at the 10th, 25th, and 30th anniversaries.

Although support for keeping NASA funding at its present level or increasing it is lower now than it has been in the past, the fact that 6 in 10 Americans hold this view in the midst of a recession suggests the public is firmly committed to the space program.

This is particularly interesting in light of the Rasmussen 7/21/09 poll about a U.S. manned mission to Mars, in response to a proposal by Buzz Aldrin, where only 51% opposed it. It’s likely as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window and our current economic dstress subsides, that support for manned Mars will soar.

Today I received a comment from Chris in North Carolina that is characteristic of those somewhat unsure about our space program. I appreciate his sending it and wanted to share his comment and my response.

From Chris in North Carolina:

I think, if we can come through the problems we have now (like our over-reliance on fossil fuels), then we’ll have a chance of making meaningful progress in space sometime in the next century or so. It definitely won’t be 2020.

There’s only one thing we can say “definitely” about the future: It definitely cannot be predicted with certainty!

That’s why I use a technique based on 200+ years of global economic, technology, and political trends. When you see patterns popping up repeatedly over 2+ centuries you have to be impressed. The media and most commentators have us so saturated with ultra-short term thinking that it’s hard for most to identify with a long-term perspective — that’s one reason 21stCenturyWaves.com was created.

But I think you’ve got it a little backwards, we aren’t waiting to solve all our problems on Earth before we go into space; that’s like waiting until we get well before we go to the doctor!

In reality, we’re going into space to help solve our problems on Earth !! A very important point. Energy is a perfect example of how this will work.

It’s 2009. By 2025 — within 16 years or so of right now, based on the Maslow Windows on the past 200 years — we should have international bases on the Moon, solar power satellites near Earth, and maybe the first folks on Mars. But asserting this is like time-traveling back to 1953 and walking up to someone and saying, “Do you realize that in 16 years or so the first men will land on the Moon?” But of course it happened! And it’s getting ready to happen again for the same economic and psychological reasons it did before.

That’s why this website exists: To show how how these brief, but magnificent Maslow Windows originate and how they enable unprecedented exploration and technology programs that transform the world. And that it’s starting again, right now. Even our current global recession is a typical part of this picture; please check my archived posts on this topic.

Special thanks to Kumhee, a Seoul native, for encouraging this topic.

South Korea continues to aggressively, but carefully pursue its long-term vision of joining the top 10 space powers in the world within a decade. Unlike its neighbor to the north — which has used burgeoning international interest in space exploration, as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, as an unconvincing cover for its attempted development of a long-range missile capability — South Korea has played skillfully and carefully by the rules.

Next week, South Korea expects to become the 9th nation to launch a home-built satellite from its own territory. Click

Aerospace America, in its Asia Update for July-August, 2009 (M. Westlake), notes that South Korea joined the Missile Technology Control Regime in 2001, which allows it to seek technology transfer from space-faring nations for use in their peaceful space program. And recently, with the help of Russia, South Korea has built a brand new space launch complex at Naro, on an island about 500 km south of Seoul.

The Russian connection was an interesting outgrowth of South Korea’s early experience with U.S. tactical missiles (e.g., Nike) and the establishment in 1990 of the Korea space agency (Korea Aerospace Research Institute; KARI) featuring their development of 1 and 2-stage sounding rockets (KSR-1 & 2) and a small lox/kerosene U.S. Vanguard-class rocket motor.

The idea was to launch their own satellite. But requests for assistance from the U.S. were unwisely refused on geopolitical grounds. According to Aerospace America,

Anxiety in Washington about Seoul’s possible military use of rockets against neighboring North Korea had the effect of driving South Korea’s scientists into the arms of Russia.

KARI has announced that it will launch its first rocket from the Naro Space Center next week on August 11; the launch window is from the 11th to the 18th. The $ 400 M, 140 ton KSLV-1 launch vehicle will insert into orbit a small (220 lb) scientific satellite with dual channel radiometers and a laser reflecter array.

If successful, it will make South Korea the 9th nation to launch a domestically-built satellite from its home country. According to senior KARI researcher Cho Gwang-rae,

You can’t be expecting much from such a simple device…The real test will be in 2017, when we will be attempting to send a real-purpose satellite with a fully domestically developed rocket. If we succeed in that, we can then say we have a space industry.

If a KSLV successfully delivers the planned 1.5 ton Korean satellite to orbit in 2017, the prospects for South Korea’s own manned space program will be good. As of now, one Korean has already been in space: bioengineer Yi So-yeon went to the International Space Station via a Russian Soyuz in April, 2008.

Yi So-yeon, the 49th woman in space but just the 2nd female asian astronaut, sees great benefits from space exploration. Click

Yi sees great benefits not only for commercial and scientific development, but for motivating youth to prepare for the 2015 Maslow Window:

Before becoming an astronaut I was not as aware of the strides that we need to bring in our educational system, and how important it really is to provide the young people — students in schools and colleges — with the right tools and, above all, inspiration.

This is an updated end-of-July list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites during July, and II) Favorites over the Last 7 Days.

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 8/1/09

I. JULY — Readers’ Favorites

1) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Window Forecasts — 10/20/08
2) Tom Wolfe’s “Giant Leap to Nowhere” — 7/20/09
3) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
4) Buzz Aldrin — A Man for All Maslow Windows! — 7/5/09
5) 10 Spiritual Connections of the Human Exploration of Space — 5/31/09

II. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1)10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
2) “The Liberal Hour” Supports Maslow Window Model and Points to the Approaching Greatest Boom in History — 3/2/09
3) Tom Wolfe’s “Giant Leap to Nowhere” — 7/20/09
4) State of the Wave — “Economy Has Hit Bottom” — 7/27/09
5) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Window Forecasts — 10/20/08