George Friedman’s Stratfor, a private intelligence corporation, provides first-rate geopolitical and technological analyses and forecasts that I quote often in this blog and elsewhere. His recent book, The Next 100 Years, has interesting parallels with forecasts made here, partly because of his long-range perspective. For example,

So we will see … until about 2070, a period of dramatic economic growth, accompanied by social transformation.

This sounds much like a Maslow Window to me although we believe that it will continue through much of the 2070s. (However, I don’t believe in quibbling over a few years when you’re comparing forecasts for the latter part of the 21st century!)

The Ares 1-X launch points to the human future in space. Click .

However, in Stratfor’s recent analysis (10/28/09) on “Ares and the Future of Manned Spaceflight” there are key statements that appear inconsistent with our experience of great explorations and major technology programs of the last 200 years, including current global trends. For example,

A manned space program is an enormous investment … With billions being poured into the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan … and the economic crisis still being felt, whether the Constellation program and its $ 100 billion price tag makes sense is a serious one even without taking into account the lack of a scientific or popular consensus for returning to the Moon.

Here, Stratfor ignores significant international momentum for a manned Moon program, as well as “early ebullience” in many countries — including Panama, Japan, India, Brazil, China, and South Korea — signaling our rapid approach to the 2015 Maslow Window.

More fundamentally, Stratfor seems unaware of our current position in the long wave. We are just beginning to recover from a great recession similar to those that have occurred within a decade of the opening of every Maslow Window of the last 200 years (except for the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window).

Within a few years, as we recover and re-enter the “greatest economic boom ever,” that was postponed in late 2007 by a financial panic, history shows we’ll enter a Golden Age of Prosperity, Exploration, and Technology, much like we did in the early 1900s. Back then the U.S. was recovering from the Panic of 1893 and the 1890s great recession, which blossomed into arguably America’s most ebullient Maslow Window. It’s unprecendented, transformational events included the opening of the Panama Canal and Peary’s expedition to the North Pole, as well as perhaps the most ebullient U.S. president of all time: Theodore Roosevelt.

No Maslow Window has ever opened late or been diminished by any financial panic or great recession that preceded it. All indicators show the 2015 Maslow Window is on schedule.

Stratfor also seems a little unsure about the importance of humans in space. As the Shuttle retires,

the implications of a nationally controlled U.S. manned access — though it is certainly noteworthy that the second nation to put a man into space and the first to put a man on the Moon will be without it for the first time since then — are not necessarily of immediate strategic concern.

This would have been like saying in 1957 that the implications of the Soviets orbiting a small satellite called Sputnik — while certainly surprising and noteworthy — do not pose a direct threat to the West and are not necessarily of immediate strategic concern. All it did, of course, was set off the Cold War space race, revitalize education in the U.S., and result in the first human landing on the Moon 12 years later. In response to the U.S. being grounded and increasing international interests in the Moon, something similar may happen again, which Stratfor seems to admit further down,

Without forward progress in this regard, countries like China … will begin to refine their understanding of manned spaceflight and reduce the U.S. lead in this area.

Stratfor also seems unclear about the timing and magnitude of future manned spaceflight.

The question is not if humans will return to space in a meaningful way after the ISS is retired, but when. When that will be, or if meaningful investment in manned spaceflight over the course of the next decade will ultimately be decisive or not, probably will remain unclear in the near future.

Global trends over the last 200 years — including current international space program developments — strongly suggest the 2015 Maslow Window will feature unprecedented, transformative activities in manned spaceflight, including international Moon exploration, space-based solar power, and/or manned interplanetary missions possibly including Mars.

Based on an extrapolation of MEP trends over the last 200 years, including the costs of recent and current secondary MEPs, large space programs between now and 2025 will cost in the range of $ 1 T to 3 T (in 2007 USD).

Aerospace America (October, 2009), a publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, asks an interesting question this month — one that goes to the core of NASA’s as well as humanity’s future: Is human spaceflight optional?

Is near-term space colonization almost inevitable? Click .

There are many responses to this question.

For example, the European Space agency affirms that,

Space activities help to define nations and their place in the world. Countries that explore space are envied as frontier nations with cultural vigour and leading technologies. The number of countries involved in space exploration is growing steadily and we are entering a new era of historic significance, in which we will extend human presence beyond Earth’s orbit, both physically and culturally.

The Global Exploration Strategy is key to unlocking humanity’s future in space. With increasing intent and determination, our partners plan to return to the Moon and beyond with the goal of sustained and ultimately self-sufficient human presence beyond Earth. It is an enormous challenge that no single nation can undertake on its own. We must do it together.

So for ESA, it sounds like the answer to the question is: Spaceflight is not optional because Europe associates human spaceflight with societal “greatness” through expanding the boundaries of science, technology, and industry by extending human presence and culture to the Moon and beyond. And “entering a new era of historic significance” sounds very much like approaching the 2015 Maslow Window.

The Space Foundation recently made the case for an operational International Space Station at least through 2020. Although ISS construction should be completed in 2010,

The U.S. is considering wrapping up its ISS involvement in 2015 and letting the $ 100 billion orbiting laboratory re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere and burn up in 2016. The ISS is both the largest and most collaborative human-made object ever to orbit the Earth. Fifteen countries are involved in the project … ISS education programs have reached more than 31 million U.S. students.

Elliot Pulham, Space Foundation CEO, is also concerned about potential negative perceptions of U.S. leadership, reliability, and commitment to large-scale space initiatives. Just before the last U.S. presidential election, MIT suggested that the U.S. and other potential Mars-faring countries should use ISS out to 2020 to develop microgravity countermeasures for long-duration interplanetary missions. So for the Space Foundation, human spaceflight is not optional, and its most dynamic, international symbol is ISS.

21stCenturyWaves.com has previously highlighted the revealing, multi-decade history of the space station program in the context of the long wave. For example, one of the most charismatic presidents in U.S. history, Ronald Reagan, was unable to make the station materialize within a decade of its proposal (1984), because of the lack of societal “ebullience” in the years near the Crash of 1987. Later, the station was nearly canceled by the U.S. Congress but benefited from the end of the Cold War and Bill Clinton’s internationalization of the program. In the U.S., the ISS continued “under the radar” for years. (For details please see The Shocking Truth About the Father of the Space Station.”)

As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, it’s very likely that the American public will develop more enthusiasm for the project. It would be the supreme anti-ebullient irony for the U.S. to terminate ISS just at the moment the world is entering the next Golden Age of Prosperity, Exploration, and Technology. That’s why it’s unlikely to happen.

Like ESA, Buzz Aldrin is convinced of the viability of the Moon and Mars as sites for human outposts and settlements. Last week he advocated that the U.S. forego any Moon races — which the U.S. won back in 1969 — and instead foster a global approach to lunar exploration and colonization featuring the Lunar Infrastructure Development Corporation. According to Buzz, the LIDC

will pool the financial, technical, and human resources of its member nations to build the lunar communication, navigation and transportation systems needed for human exploration of the Moon. It would be a public/private global partnership … (that) will enable a sustainable human presence on the Moon that will be accessible to all the nations on the Earth.

Similar to Interspace, a concept for a global space organization proposed by Otto Steinbronn and myself in the early 1990s, LIDC will allow any nation on Earth to participate in Moon exploration by the purchase of corporate shares at whatever budget level is convenient for them.

Concerned that manned exploration of Mars was being neglected or deemphasized, Aldrin earlier proposed an ambitious U.S.-led human Mars exploration program featuring one-way human missions to Mars; i.e., the Mars astronauts would become colonists. The Russians have recently proposed joint manned missions to Mars with the U.S. and others.

The Augustine recommendations as described in Aerospace America are basically a series of options for the U.S. future in space that suffer from a lack of funding. “The clear message was that if NASA’s budget stays at historic levels, U.S. astronauts have little chance of ever leaving LEO.”

21stCenturyWaves.com brings a unique perspective to this issue based on the great explorations and macro-engineering projects of the Maslow Windows back to Lewis and Clark.

Here are five forecasts based on the lessons of the last 200 years, including recent global trends:

1. NASA Funding Will Increase. Because of healthy international competition and interests in lunar exploration, it’s likely — even in the short term (~2010) — that NASA funding will increase to a level enabling human spaceflight beyond LEO. If the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window experience is any guide, funding will recede as a serious issue as we approach 2015.

2. Space Activities during the 2015 Maslow Window Will be at the $ 1 T to 3 T level (2007 USD). This is based on MEP funding trends from previous Maslow Windows and the costs of current “secondary” MEPs.

3. NASA will Adjust to Increasing International Cooperation and Programs Beyond LEO. In 2013 NASA will be one long wave old and will likely become a member of a global space organization like Aldrin’s LIDC or our Interspace concept. This organization might help the world avoid a costly replay of the Cold War Sputnik-style space race.

4. During the Next Maslow Window, a Manned Mars Program May Occur Simultaneously With the International Moon Program… depending on global ebullience and funding levels. But based on previous Maslow Window durations, the 2015 Window will probably close before 2025 — not enough time for a Mars program to directly follow Moon exploration.

5. Human Spaceflight Is Not Really Optional. Probably the most powerful message of the last 200 years is that great explorations and monumental engineering projects are a product of two things: the laws of economics and human curiosity.

How Exploration and Technology Booms Really Work

While humans in general are hard-wired to want to go exploring as much as possible, in the modern world the only time they can is when economic pressures are reduced during the twice-per-century, unparalleled economic booms that trigger Maslow Windows. During this affluence-induced “ebullience”, many in society are catapulted to higher levels in Maslow’s hierarchy where their momentarily expanded world views make new exploring and massive building seem not just intriguing, but almost irresistible. This “ebullience” is an enhanced form of the “animal spirits” of Keynes and more recently Akerlof and Shiller, and the “irrational exhuberance” of Greenspan. The timing of the Maslow Windows is based on long waves in the economy as first described by Kondratieff (i.e., the K-Wave) and more recently Stewart (energy cycles), Strauss and Howe (generational cycles), and others.

This theory rests fundamentally on the three pillars of Maslow, Kondratieff, and Keynes, including modern extensions of their work, and is supported by global trends and key events described in this blog and elsewhere. Maslow Window Theory shows why — every 55-60 years — humans get momentarily swept away by extraordinary explorations and technology projects. However, they are still constrained by geographical and technological knowledge of their day, and there is a discernable sequence to both.

For example, Napoleon’s adventures and embryonic “manifest destiny” pressures made Lewis and Clark’s explorations of strategic importance. One long wave later the secrets of equatorial Africa became the focus for European exploration. In the early 20th century, because North America and central Africa had been probed, the only exciting places left were the North and South poles. And in the 1960s, the development of rockets made the Moon possible. None of these great explorations was entirely rational — they were the product of “ebullience” — but a logical sequence is seen: Each target for great exploration is a new geographical site of great interest that is less accessible than the previous one, but reachable with existing knowledge and technology.

So in a human sense, space is not optional because it — like all the great explorations over the last 200 years — is a product of unusual prosperity and human nature. As we approach 2015, growing ebullience around the globe will make major space and technology programs irresistible.

The only ways to stop space are: 1) to stop prosperity by interrupting the long booms that trigger Maslow Windows twice each century OR, 2) to change human nature.

Despite numerous well-known economic and military crises over the last 200 years, neither has ever occurred.

Thanks to UK space expert and longtime Fellow of the British Interplanetary Society Stephen Ashworth for his comments about future space activities and Maslow Windows on his website, which I highly recommend (both the website and the comments!), by the way. He does an excellent job introducing the Maslow Window concept and indicating a few concerns.

Are happy days almost here again? A cheering, rain-soaked New York City crowd watches Neil Armstrong take his first step on the Moon in 1969. Click
Photo: Bettmann/Corbis

Let me borrow a few of his quotes here …

My own knowledge of recent history is not good enough to judge whether a cycle of roughly 56 years is in operation. And when people start saying that they have a sure-fire method of predicting the future of a highly complex system — whether the climate, or society; whether in an ostensibly scientific manner or through decoding secret messages in the Bible or the works of Nostradamus — my bullshit indicators start twitching.

Yet it is certainly conceivable that an overall cyclic pulsation in economic conditions — a two-generation business cycle — may be modulating the conditions for great scientific and exploration projects in a non-random way, allowing approximate forecasts to be made. And there is no bogus claim of certainty being made here — while great explorations may be imminent, we are also warned that the opportunity created by the newly favourable conditions could be squandered.

Actually, I don’t know much about Nostradamus except what I’ve seen on the History Channel! And I’m still not sure how he made his predictions. However, I discovered the Maslow Window by accident. I read a couple of books in 1992 that introduced and documented the 56 year energy cycle (one by Swiss physicist Theodore Modis), realized it was like a K-wave, and was impressed with the economic, technology, and societal parameters it was correlated with. So just for fun I checked to see if 1969 — culmination of the Apollo decade — was an energy peak. Of course it was, so I realized then that I’d have to check out everything back to Lewis and Clark to be sure it wasn’t real.

That’s when I noticed the Great Exploration/Macro-Engineering Project (MEP)/Major War clusters that line up with upswings and peaks in the long wave. (I should mention that the political scientists had already created a large literature on wars and the long wave, although I didn’t know anything about it yet in the mid-1990s. And Modis hinted at an MEP-long wave link, although I didn’t remember that until I noticed them preferentially popping up near long wave upswings and peaks over the last 200 years.)

So this is really a thoroughly empirical approach.

The theoretical part started when I tried to imagine how long business cycles could enable the clusters. It’s clear why the expensive MEPs would be favored by a large economic boom, but less so why Great Explorations would, until you connect a large, twice-per-century economic boom (part of the two-generation business cycle) with Maslow’s hierarchy. (Incidentally, before Apollo, the Great Explorations — e.g., Peary/Amundsen polar expeditions — were separate from the MEPs; e.g., Panama Canal.) This is the most likely time when large numbers of people in society will ascend Maslow’s hierarchy and momentarily be riveted by Apollo-style exploration and technology. But after the long wave peaks and begins to descend, this affluence-induced “ebullience” rapidly heads south; i.e., the “Maslow Window” collapses. Incidentally, that’s why we have 3 real Saturn V launch vehicles in museums today. In addition, Joshua Goldstein and others see major “peak” wars as interactive with the long wave, so they fit the broad pattern too.

This theory is certainly not perfect and cannot explain everything over the last 200 years. (And it doesn’t try to as you’ll see below.) As with anything involving real history about real humans and nations, there are always exceptions. But nevertheless, it does hang together rather well and points tantalizingly toward the 2015 Maslow Window and what’s in store for us!

More from Stephen Ashworth…

The difficulty I have with this theory is that Dr Cordell allows only about two decades of favourable conditions per century, in two “Maslow windows” 56 years apart.

The globalisation of the past half-millennium did not take place in scattered decade-long windows of opportunity, but was and had to be a continuous process over those centuries. Similarly, the multi-globalisation of the future will need to be a sustained effort. Certainly, there may be sudden leaps ahead, followed by long periods of relatively slow consolidation of the gains so spectacularly acquired.

Actually the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window itself (not counting the post-WW II long boom leading up to it) was even shorter than a decade; e.g., although Sputnik went up in 1957, Apollo didn’t really get going until 1961 and public support for it was already slipping by 1966. The length of the 2015 Maslow Window will probably be determined by how soon the expected mid-2020s major war begins. If it’s early (<2020) we could lose most of the Mars/Moon program, instead of only the last part of it as we did with Apollo in the late 1960s.

Secondly, Maslow Window theory does not really focus on globalization. Based on the last 200 years, it applies mainly to 3 things: Great Explorations, MEPs, and major wars; i.e., focused, large-scale endeavors that generate intense international interest. In fact, as I mentioned in the 1996 Space Policy paper (in the Articles), a lot of technology and science research proceeds consistently without much long wave modulation. To the extent that international cooperation and commercial relations expand and develop during Maslow Windows, globalization would be enhanced, but not limited to Maslow Windows.

More key Ashworth comments…

If each euphoric window of opportunity is only a decade long, then no groundbreaking government programme will in such a short time be able to create the conditions for steady progress during the following relatively depressed decades. The 1970s saw not only no further progress in lunar access, but even the loss of the limited access that did exist.

He’s really identified the problem with Apollo and its interaction with the 1960s Maslow Window very succinctly! The Windows do close abruptly and terminate great explorations and large engineering programs. For example, the ebullience of the early 20th century polar expeditions and “Panama fever” was as intense as Apollo but was quickly terminated by WW I. Likewise, government support for the amazing central Africa explorations of Dr. Livingstone – he’d previously returned to London as a major hero — was rapidly cut off, much in the style of his brothers-in-exploration, the Apollo astronauts, just past the peak of their wave, 2 long waves later.

A subtle, but important point is that funding limitations do not fundamentally cause great explorations and MEPs to die, it’s because of a lack of ebullience. As the long wave descends and contractions occur, it’s the perception of falling behind by many people that understandably weakens ebullience, not the lack of funding. This is demonstrated by our current situation in the U.S.; You could run the greatest space program of all time on part of the $ 787 B Stimulus bill that was passed earlier this year — and some suggest that a small part of it should be returned to fund NASA — but during this great recession, a time of deep anti-ebullience, there is little public interest to do so.

Ashworth concludes…

If Dr Cordell and his co-workers are right, the period 2015-2025 could see doubled and tripled government space budgets, with multiple manned landings on the Moon and even Mars. But by the same token, the late 2020s and 2030s will see retreat and retrenchment, with events on Earth dominated by economic depression and war. A new conspiracy theory will emerge: astronauts never really landed on Mars at all!

Therefore the hope that manned exploration can leap ahead in a renewed age of Camelot is ultimately an illusion. It may indeed — but if it does, it will quickly fall behind again, with the loss of most of the capabilities gained during the decade of ebullient expansion.

I agree with Stephen’s assessment of the positive effects of the next Maslow Window but do not think the aftermath will be as bleak as he suggests. For example, although we no longer have a Saturn V and haven’t returned to Moon in 40 years, the U.S. and others have gained much human space-ops experience in the Shuttle and the ISS, plus we’re seeing the birth of the private space tourism industry, and we are the recipients of a genuinely multi-polar space world — unlike where we left off in the 1960s.

Two more things:
1) To counter the negative effects of declining Maslow Windows, we (globally) should strive to achieve a largely self-sufficient presence on the Moon or Mars (as suggested recently by Buzz Aldrin and others) during the 2015 Maslow Window. This will avoid another crippling ~40 year interval (1972 to now) when we are trapped in Earth orbit and deprived the pleasures of solar system settlement.
And…
2) It was not an accident (and shouldn’t have been a surprise) that the Cold War space race began, as well as ended, the way it did. It’s been happening basically the same way for 200 years — all the way back to Lewis and Clark. The real power in learning these lessons is that we can begin to plan around these long waves, instead of being completely surprised by them.

We need a global, unified, multi-decade approach to human exploration and settlement of the solar system. And with knowledge of how Maslow Windows have operated in the past, we should be able to either moderate the long waves themselves, or at least reduce their effects on human expansion into the cosmos.

This is an updated mid-month list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites over the Last 7 Days, and II) All-Time Favorites.

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 10/18/09

I. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
2) Xunantunich and the Large Hadron Collider Support Maslow Window Forecasts — 8/21/09
3) How Close Are We to Space Colonization? — 2/1/09
4) Fred Kaplan’s “1959 – The Year Everything Changed” Points to the New Space Age — 9/14/09
5) Planned Your LCROSS Impact Party Yet? — 9/25/09

2. ALL-TIME — Readers’ Favorites

1) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Window Forecasts — 10/20/08
2)10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
3) Was the 1960s Apollo Moon Program an Anomaly? — 2/3/09
4) Tom Wolfe’s Giant Leap to Nowhere — 7/20/09
5) How President Obama is Creating the New Space Age — 9/24/09

Based on historical Maslow Window timing of the last 200 years, the world is just over 5 years from the anticipated opening of the new Space Age, a Golden Age of Prosperity, Exploration, and Technology, as exemplified by the 1960s Apollo decade and the early 20th Century Peary/Panama Window.

The Europeans envision the expansion of human civilization into the cosmos.
Click

Impressive, albeit painful supportive evidence appeared recently in the form of the financial Panic of 2008 and the current global recession which interrupted the “Greatest Economic Boom Ever” in 2007 (see Fortune, July, 23 2007). This “Great Boom/Panic/Great Recession” sequence is a common feature of the decade just before Maslow Windows over the last 200 years (except for the 1960s Apollo Window); thus the Panic of 2008 also supports the forecast that the next Maslow Window should arrive near 2015.

Indeed, no Maslow Window of the last 200 years has ever been delayed or in any way observably diminished by the Great Boom/Panic/Great Recession sequence, because the Great Boom is always reignited as the recession ends.

If this grand, 200+ year-old pattern is continuing today, then despite our great recession, we should witness the great space powers positioning themselves — financially, strategically, technologically — for the coming new Space Age. And they are.

Russia announced recently that they are planning a major, new space center — Vostochny Cosmodrome — in Amur Oblast of the Russian Far East, just north of China. This will allow Russia to launch all its payloads from its own territory; Baikoneur is in Kazahkstan and is leased by Russia.

Construction will begin in 2011 and be completed by 2018, as the 2015 Maslow Window gains full momentum. This is a major endeavor. It will have 7 launch pads, including 2 for manned flights. Over 20,000 people will work there. The announced cost is $ 13.5 B; this is over twice the initial cost (in current dollars) of Kennnedy Space Center that was built in the 1960s for the Apollo Moon program.

Europeans are also excited about the human future in space. The European Space Agency announced this week that high-level representatives from 29 European Space Agency and European Union Member States will meet in Prague on 23 October for the 1st EU-ESA International Conference on Human Space Exploration. It’s purpose is “to prepare a roadmap leading to the definition of a common vision and strategic planning for space exploration … Besides Ministers and delegates from the EU, ESA and third countries, the conference will also be attended by Members of Parliament and representatives of industry and academia.”

ESA is understandably proud of its achievements in human spaceflight including Spacelab, and the Columbus lab on the International Space Station. Another enviable highlight is that “ESA has carried out the farthest landing in the solar system so far with the successful Huygens mission on Titan, Saturn’s largest moon.” We can expect that their future vision will be Solar System-wide.

This State of the Wave summarizes specific progress toward the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window and movement toward real, near-term space colonization. The focus is on events and trends of long-range significance.

Coined by Goldman Sachs in 2001, the “BRICs” refers to the dynamic countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, who Goldman suggested “could eclipse the combined economies of the richest countries of the world” by 2050.

21stCenturyWaves.com has written about them many times in the context of economic growth and space exploration over the last 18 months. However, it is extraordinary to see the BRICs so clearly demonstrating multi-decade long wave trends as well as the style of ebullience that points directly toward the 2015 Maslow Window. This brief State of the Wave is dedicated to all of them.

BRAZIL’s Olympic Glow
According to the New York Times (10/4/09; A. Barrionuevo), Brazil is “celebrating its arrival on the world stage” with its selection as the first-ever South American site for the 2016 Olympics. Despite the direct participation of President Obama, Rio de Janeiro beat out Chicago handily. According to Brazilian President da Silva, “Brazil went from a second-class country to a first-class country, and today we begin to receive the respect we deserve.” Another Brazilian ebulliently sums it up, “My Brazil is solid. We have it all.”

Since the economic benefits of hosting an Olympics are few — it is mainly a spectacle — this is truly Maslow Window-style ebullience on display from Brazil.

Brazil’s 1960s-style ebullience — its Olympic glow — extends beyond just the Olympics to being an economic powerhouse as well as a growing global space power; it’s what we’d expect of a major player in the approaching 2015 Maslow Window. For example, its economy recently dramatically exited the recession with a 1.9% GDP increase in the 2nd quarter over the first (WSJ, 9/12/09).

Quoting from my 5/20/08 Brazil post:

Brazil has Latin America’s most prominent space program including their own launch vehicles, environmental and communication satellites (some in cooperation with China), and their enviable Alcantara launch site (within 2 degrees of the equator)! In 2006, the first Brazilian astronaut — Marcos Pontes — after training with NASA, ascended on a Russian Soyuz rocket for a $ 10.5 M, week-long stay on the International Space Station. Colonel Pontes’ instant celebrity power exceeded even the best soccer stars that Brazil has to offer, and gave him access to the Brazilian president and a prominent association with Brazilian comic books and toys! …

In 1992 writing in Space Policy, I suggested that Rio de Janeiro would be an ideal headquarters city for a new global space organization that we forecast will form by 2014. Today it seems even more appropriate considering Brazil’s likely pivotal role in the rapidly approaching international race to space.

RUSSIA and the International Space Station
The European Space Agency reported this morninig that ESA astronaut Frank De Winne became the first European commander of the ISS; he took over from Russian cosmonaut Gennady Padalka who had been ISS commander since April. Prior to this morning, only Russian cosmonauts and U.S. Astronauts had filled this role.

Russia’s continuing leadership in space is complicated by the global recession. Stratfor reports that the Russian GDP is expected to shrink by 7.5% in 2009, somewhat less than the 8% forecast previously. (For comparison, Reuters recently reported that the U.S. economy is expected to decline by only 2.5 % in 2009 (and rebound by the same amount in 2010) according to private economists polled October 5-6 for the Blue Chip Economic Indicators October survey.) President Dmitri Medvedev admitted that, “As soon as the crisis occurred, we collapsed. And we collapsed more than many other countries.”

According to Richard Pipes (Wall Street Journal, 8/22/09), former professor of history at Harvard and member of Reagan’s National Security Council, “Russia is obsessed with being recognized as a ‘Great Power’…” This is partly due to their victory over Germany in World War II and “the success in sending the first human in space.” But Russia’s veering in the direction of a new cold war hasn’t helped them economically; “Russian aggression against Georgia has cost it dearly in terms of capital flight.” And Russia’s dependence on the global price of energy caused their exports to drop by 47% in first half of 2009.

Although most Russians do not see themselves as European (and they are not Asian either), Pipes believes it is essential to convince them that “they belong to the West and should adopt Western institutions and values: democracy, multi-party system, rule of law, freedom of speech and press, respect for private property…” This is especially important in a world repeating many key trends of one long wave ago, including a new Cold War (e.g., their apparent involvement in the Iran nuclear program) and the international build-up toward large-scale space activities (including proposed joint Russia-U.S. manned Mars missions) in the 2015 Maslow Window. The obvious twist this time is a strong Russia/U.S. alliance in ISS, and the fact that they may serve as our ticket to ISS after the Shuttle is retired.

INDIA’s Ebullient Space Program
India’s space program is among the most ebullient and aggressive in the world. The recent spectacular success of their first mission to the Moon — Chandrayaan-1 — in detecting small amounts of water on the Moon is indicative of many even greater things to come as we approach and enter the 2015 Maslow Window.

For example, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) is contemplating its own robotic mission to Mars between 2013 and 2015 (as the next Maslow Window opens). ISRO anticipates using their Geosychronous Satellite Launch Venicle (GSLV) and either “ion thrusters, liquid engines or nculear power” to thrust their spacecraft to Mars. India also envisions its own Earth orbital human spaceflight program in the 2014-2015 timeframe. In support of this goal is the Space Capsule Recovery Experiment, a new astronaut training center in Bangalore by 2012, and the development of a 3-person crew orbital vehicle capable of orbiting the Earth for 7 days.

India’s economy has slowed from 2007 growth rates approaching 10%, but Prime Minister Manmohan Singh emphasized recently, “There is no economic crisis in India. It is certainly true that as a sequel to the global economic crisis our exports have suffered … but even then our economy is growing at a rate of six and half per cent. Therefore there is no crisis, as such in India.”

Although India naturally feels a competition with China’s impressive space program, Indian leaders also want to enhance the development of high technology, share in space science discoveries, and excite young people. According to Indian President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, a rocket scientist who is known as the father of India’s missile program, the Indian space program will “electrify” the spirit of young scientists. This is clear evidence of early and growing ebullience in the Indian space and technology communities — exactly what we’d expect, based on international events one long wave ago, as we surge toward the 2015 Maslow Window.

CHINA’s 60th Anniversary
China recently celebrated one long wave of the People’s Republic, or “60 years of chinese communism,” says Gordon Chang in the Wall Street Journal (10/1/09). “The Chinese state will try to project strength … fearsome weapons … 200,000 soldiers … a grand procession in the center of Beijing.” And they did. Self-described “panda hugger” Thomas Barnett felt the parades showed a “lack of confidence … I see a celebration of everything that’s stood in the way of China’s return to growth and prosperity.”

From the perspective of 21stCenturyWaves.com, it’s especially intriguing that the celebration of 1 long wave of Chinese communist rule featured — in addition to massive military might — a float emphasizing Chinese success in space. The military display was intended to help the Chinese feel “a sense of security, a sense of pride,” according to one Chinese observer, whose restaurant was shut down for the celebration. However, perhaps the space float was an invitation to China’s future during the 2015 Maslow Window as a global leader in the commercial and scientific development of near-Earth space, the Moon, and beyond.

Over a year ago in “10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space,” I acknowledged Mao Zedong’s call to action in response to the Soviet launch of Sputnik in 1957, the rapid growth of China’s space infrastructure including its capability of launching humans into orbit (first manned orbit mission in 2003), and the international prestige and growth of Chinese nationalism (due to its popularity in China) which space has created. And although China’s economy has featured 10% pre-crisis growth, since 2008 its economy has taken big hits. Ironically, The Economist (10/10/09) is now warning that China’s recent GDP rebound might result in a bubble economy unless China adopts an independent monetary policy that frees the yuan from the dollar.

Chang laments that “the Party is increasingly out of step with the dynamic people it governs,” and despite the paranoid parade, Barnett awaits “the truly confident China to someday appear,” while former prime minister of Great Britain, Tony Blair (WSJ, 10/9/09) suggests that when we consider China’s last 60 years, “reflect on how far they have to go. But spare a thought for how far they have come.”

China’s interest in space — the technology, the exploration and science, the international prestige — is very “1960s”, as it is for all the other BRICs — and that’s intended as a high compliment to their capabilities and aspirations. It’s a clear international signal that we’re approaching the 2015 Maslow Window — the next Golden Age of Prosperity, Exploration, and Technology.

However, this time — because of our knowledge of 200+ years of Maslow Windows — we’re smarter, and we may even have a choice. I vote that we have a “Grand Alliance for Space“, featuring a unified, global approach to human settlement of the solar system. But I have to admit that the history of the Cold War space race, the exploration of Earth’s polar regions, and even the Lewis and Clark expedition suggest it will be otherwise.

Much like Tom Cruise, in the popular 1986 movie “Top Gun” — who insisted, “I feel the need … the need for speed” — current manned Mars mission planners are echoing his famous quote. And the way to do that during the 2015 Maslow Window timeframe (~ 2015 to 2025) is with nukes.

Tom Cruise had the right idea about traveling to Mars in his wildly popular 1986 movie “Top Gun.” Click .

According to Bill Emrich (Smithsonian’s Air & Space, 9/09; Michael Klesius) of NASA/MSFC in Huntsville, “Missions to Mars will almost certainly require propulsion systems with performance levels exceeding that of today’s best chemical engines.”

The motivations include shorter Earth-Mars travel times (and thus reduced space-related hazards like radiation for crews), reduced vehicle weights in LEO (lower Earth launch costs), and increased mission safety and flexibility by broadening launch windows and reducing the need for aerobraking. Regarding the risks of chemical interplanetary vehicles with aerobraking at Mars, Emrich warns, “I’d love to go to Mars, but not on that ship … You’re going down to just a few thousand feet above the surface. It would be a very scary ride … Very little room for error … You get one crack at it.”

You can get a feel for the potential thrills of interplanetary aerobraking by renting the 1984 movie “2010” (A.C. Clarke’s sequel to 2001) and watching Roy Scheider endure the approach to Jupiter.

Although not baselined in either Wernher von Braun’s initial engineering sketch of Martian expeditions in 1953, or in the currently envisioned Ares infrastructure, a nuclear upper stage was seriously considered as an option for the chemical Saturn V upper stage which launched astronauts to the Moon in 1969. Because of system requirements that greatly exceed those for the Moon, future expeditions to Mars will probably use nuclear propulsion.

In NASA’s first serious engineering study of humans to Mars, the 1960s EMPIRE study — Early Manned Planetary-Interplanetary Roundtrip Expeditions — nuclear propulsion was found to be “most important” for human missions to Mars. For example, according to Krafft Ehricke (in January, 1963), who led the General Dynamics, Astronautics (San Diego) EMPIRE studies, a 1975 manned mission to Mars “is in the realm of realistic technological planning; the most critical technical item is the nuclear engine.” The schedule for nuclear rocket development was included as a “classified” addendum (which is not included in my copy!), as you might expect at the zenith of the Cold War. Ehricke assumed a nuclear engine specific impulse (Isp) near 850 s (double that of the Shuttle Main Engines), with an operational lifetime up to 20 hr, and ready restart capability. General Dynamics’ prelim analysis indicated a total program cost (1965-75) of $ 18.5 B, — which puts it near the Apollo ballpark — of which about $ 2 B ($ 13.5 B in 2007 USD) was for the nuclear engine. Given improved materials technology, better computer simulation capability, and significant experience with nuclear systems, the development cost should be much less today.

In 1987, Stanley Borowsky of NASA Lewis Research Center (now Glenn) reviewed nuclear propulsion technology in the context of manned planetary missions (NASA TM 101354). He concluded that “convenient interplanetary travel will require the development of advanced nuclear propulsion systems…” with high thrust, large power to weight ratios, and high Isp. Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) technology is particularly favored — where a nuclear reactor heats propellant and creates thrust — because it is the only nuclear rocket system that has been built and tested. Project Rover, the first nuclear rocket project, began in 1955 (before NASA existed) at Los Alamos and became part of NASA’s NERVA (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application) program in 1960. Before its cancellation in 1973, NERVA had 20 successful tests in Nevada; its highlights included engine endurance (60 min at 1100 MW), high power operation (5000 MW for Phoebus-2A reactor), and reusability (XE-P system was restarted 24 times). However, time ran out before a flight-rated nuclear engine could be tested.

At the Case for Mars IV Conference in 1990, three EG&G Idaho scientists under contract to the U.S. Department of Energy concluded that “the propulsion system likely to meet all mission requirements (for human exploration of Mars) is the Nuclear Thermal Rocket.” They emphasize the performance advantages of NTR versus chemical systems,

For a transfer of 250 days, the initial mass in Earth orbit (IMEO) for a cryogenic chemical system with an aerobrake is about 325 metric tons and about 1,000 metric tons without it. For the same mission, an NTR with an Isp of 950 seconds (an updated NERVA design) would require about 250 metric tons IMEO without aerobraking. This would be even less with aerobraking.

Although they do not quote a cost estimate, the EG&G scientists estimate that an initial NTR would require 5 – 8 years of development.

As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, when human spaceflight to Mars is seriously contemplated, current Mars mission planners again feel the need for speed. NASA’s Emrich is studying nuclear systems that could cut the Earth-to-Mars travel times in half relative to chemical propulsion. His project, the Nuclear Thermal Rocket Element Environment Simulator or NTREES at NASA Marshall, will subject potential nuclear rocket components to the extreme temepratures they will have to survive during in-space reactor operations.

This is an updated end-of-September list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites during September, and II) All-Time Favorites (the first daily post was published on 5/11/08).

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 10/1/09

I. SEPTEMBER — Readers’ Favorites

1) How President Obama is Creating the New Space Age — 9/24/09
2) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
3) State of the Wave – Obama is Not LBJ; New Space Age Will Bloom — 8/29/09
4) Was the 1960s Apollo Moon Program an Anomaly? — 2/03/09
5) Kepler, Carl Sagan, and the Guzman Prize — Our Century-Long Search for Space Aliens — 8/23/09

II. ALL-TIME — Readers’ Favorites

1) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Window Forecasts — 10/20/08
2) Was the 1960s Apollo Moon Program an Anomaly? — 2/3/09
3)10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
4) Tom Wolfe’s Giant Leap to Nowhere — 7/20/09
5) State of the Wave – Obama is Not LBJ; New Space Age Will Bloom — 8/29/09

The world’s “first clown to go into orbit” lifted off yesterday morning (GMT) from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. While some cynics might insist that other “clowns” have already been in orbit — and they shall remain nameless here — this was the first professional clown to actually do it.

Canadian billionaire Guy Laliberte is the 7th private space tourist and the 1st real clown to reach orbit. Click .

Guy Laliberte, the founder of Cirque du Soleil paid the Russians $ 35 M for a Soyuz ride to the International Space Station; he plans to give a space-worthy performance that will be streamed on the internet.

According to the BBC, Mr. Laliberte is different than anyone ever to visit orbit,

I’m an artistic person and a creator. I’m not a scientific. I’m not an engineer. Life has given me some qualities, some assets and I have built up a team of very creative people around the world. With those people I think we’ll present something that is originally creative and hopefully will have the result of sensitising people toward the situation of water in the world.

On October 9, Laliberte’s 2-hour “poetical social” performance from high above everything, will feature contributions from links to 14 cities around the world.

This is a seminal event in the expansion of human cvilization and culture into the cosmos. Although the cause celebre is the need for clean water for people everywhere, equally striking is the performance in orbit by a famous, professional entertainer.

Hopefully the 2015 Maslow Window will allow more artists to perform in space. However, in the short term — after Shuttle retirement in 2010 or 2011 — there may be few Soyuz tourist seats available as they are taken by professional astronauts on their way to work in space.