George Friedman’s Stratfor, a private intelligence corporation, provides first-rate geopolitical and technological analyses and forecasts that I quote often in this blog and elsewhere. His recent book, The Next 100 Years, has interesting parallels with forecasts made here, partly because of his long-range perspective. For example,

So we will see … until about 2070, a period of dramatic economic growth, accompanied by social transformation.

This sounds much like a Maslow Window to me although we believe that it will continue through much of the 2070s. (However, I don’t believe in quibbling over a few years when you’re comparing forecasts for the latter part of the 21st century!)

The Ares 1-X launch points to the human future in space. Click .

However, in Stratfor’s recent analysis (10/28/09) on “Ares and the Future of Manned Spaceflight” there are key statements that appear inconsistent with our experience of great explorations and major technology programs of the last 200 years, including current global trends. For example,

A manned space program is an enormous investment … With billions being poured into the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan … and the economic crisis still being felt, whether the Constellation program and its $ 100 billion price tag makes sense is a serious one even without taking into account the lack of a scientific or popular consensus for returning to the Moon.

Here, Stratfor ignores significant international momentum for a manned Moon program, as well as “early ebullience” in many countries — including Panama, Japan, India, Brazil, China, and South Korea — signaling our rapid approach to the 2015 Maslow Window.

More fundamentally, Stratfor seems unaware of our current position in the long wave. We are just beginning to recover from a great recession similar to those that have occurred within a decade of the opening of every Maslow Window of the last 200 years (except for the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window).

Within a few years, as we recover and re-enter the “greatest economic boom ever,” that was postponed in late 2007 by a financial panic, history shows we’ll enter a Golden Age of Prosperity, Exploration, and Technology, much like we did in the early 1900s. Back then the U.S. was recovering from the Panic of 1893 and the 1890s great recession, which blossomed into arguably America’s most ebullient Maslow Window. It’s unprecendented, transformational events included the opening of the Panama Canal and Peary’s expedition to the North Pole, as well as perhaps the most ebullient U.S. president of all time: Theodore Roosevelt.

No Maslow Window has ever opened late or been diminished by any financial panic or great recession that preceded it. All indicators show the 2015 Maslow Window is on schedule.

Stratfor also seems a little unsure about the importance of humans in space. As the Shuttle retires,

the implications of a nationally controlled U.S. manned access — though it is certainly noteworthy that the second nation to put a man into space and the first to put a man on the Moon will be without it for the first time since then — are not necessarily of immediate strategic concern.

This would have been like saying in 1957 that the implications of the Soviets orbiting a small satellite called Sputnik — while certainly surprising and noteworthy — do not pose a direct threat to the West and are not necessarily of immediate strategic concern. All it did, of course, was set off the Cold War space race, revitalize education in the U.S., and result in the first human landing on the Moon 12 years later. In response to the U.S. being grounded and increasing international interests in the Moon, something similar may happen again, which Stratfor seems to admit further down,

Without forward progress in this regard, countries like China … will begin to refine their understanding of manned spaceflight and reduce the U.S. lead in this area.

Stratfor also seems unclear about the timing and magnitude of future manned spaceflight.

The question is not if humans will return to space in a meaningful way after the ISS is retired, but when. When that will be, or if meaningful investment in manned spaceflight over the course of the next decade will ultimately be decisive or not, probably will remain unclear in the near future.

Global trends over the last 200 years — including current international space program developments — strongly suggest the 2015 Maslow Window will feature unprecedented, transformative activities in manned spaceflight, including international Moon exploration, space-based solar power, and/or manned interplanetary missions possibly including Mars.

Based on an extrapolation of MEP trends over the last 200 years, including the costs of recent and current secondary MEPs, large space programs between now and 2025 will cost in the range of $ 1 T to 3 T (in 2007 USD).

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