On the flight home from Chicago last weekend I was re-reading one of my favorite books: The Next 100 Years — A Forecast for the 21st Century (2009) by George Friedman.

Friedman is convinced that the U.S. will continue its global dominance throughout the 21st Century. Part of the reason is that he and his colleagues at Stratfor are forecasting that China will undergo a Japan-style economic collapse by 2015. And that Russia will decline by 2020. There will be major challenges and new regional competitors for the U.S., but the future is bright.

One challenge that you mentioned for the U.S. (and the world) is demographics — specifically an aging population. But, being a nation of immigrants — e.g., my grandparents came from Germany to the U.S. just before the Peary/Panama/T. Roosevelt Maslow Window — the U.S. will have a cultural and economic edge in attracting the best the world has to offer, unlike many other countries.

One thing I like about Friedman is that he’s a bit of a contrarian, which to me means he follows the data, not just the headlines. Another is that he uses 50 year economic/political cycles to facilitate his long-term thinking. This is basically my approach too except that I have focused on technology and exploration which led me to the concept of the fractal Maslow Window, also fundamentally driven by a long economic wave.

Friedman’s approach and mine often lead to compatible results (forecasts and trends) as they should if they are aligned with historical and current reality. I was thinking about writing a post specifically illustrating the complementarity of our approaches and compatibility of our results, with a focus on demographics. And based on your comments, I think I will.