That was the week that was: Gallup reported that President Obama’s job approval rating fell to a record low of 40%. And the crisis of confidence in Obama was bluntly verbalized by billionaire Democrat Steve Wynn:

This administration if the greatest wet blanket to business, and progress and job creation in my lifetime…

The Huffington Post cited first quarter GDP growth of only 1.3% and a Q1 number that was revised downward to only 0.4% (from the previous estimate of 1.9%) as evidence that U.S. economic recovery will “remain slow through 2011.”

As if this weren’t enough bad news, some normally attentive readers of 21stCenturyWaves.com apparently became afflicted by negative “animal spirits” and questioned in emails to me whether a 2015 boom is in the cards!

Yes it is, and you can see more here:
“The Maslow Window — Summary.”

Nobel economist Robert Lucas believes that this chart is the secret to the coming prosperity.
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In his Milliman Lecture at the University of Washington in May, the Nobel economist Robert Lucas expllained that the U.S. (and other modern economies) growth trend since 1870 is 3% (2% per person), and

this ongoing miracle is mainly due to free-market capitalism.

In plots (see above) of per capita GDP growth since 1870 of 8 large, successful economies (e.g., UK, U.S., France, Germany, Japan), the “catch-up” in growth occurred after WW II but stalled in the 1970s; a 20-40% gap in income levels has appeared relative to the U.S.. According to Lucas, “European tax and regulatory structures discourage savings and work effort relative to the U.S…”

The 20-40% gap represents cost of larger welfare state.

In Lucas’ chart below, the long-term real U.S. growth rate of 3% is plotted against the U.S. recession of 2006 to 2011. It’s clear that current growth — except for the last 6 months (see above) — recovered to nearly 3%, but the rapid post-recession growth chatacteristic of most recoveries is not seen. Instead, GDP remains down by about 10% from the long-term trend.

How long will the U.S. growth gap continue?
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Lucas asks:

Recently, Stanford economist John B. Taylor (Wall Street Journal, 7/21/11) reminded us again that government economic policies really do have effects, and an empirical (rather than a political) approach to understanding them is invaluable.

For example, with lessons learned from the 1930s’ Great Depression and the 1970s’ Great Inflation, the 80s and 90s were a time of extraordinary job creation: 44 million new jobs. With lower tax rates and limited government spending, the result was economic growth, and

the federal budget moved into balance.

As the 21st century opened, ambitious politicians from both parties wanted to “tame the business cycle, increase homeownership, or provide the elderly with better drug coverage.” The avalanche of unintended consequences is well-known and includes:

a financial crisis, a great recession, ballooning debt and today’s nonexistent recovery.

Despite the U.S.’ current weak recovery, the road to near-term, JFK-style prosperity is clearly visible based on empirical, long-term studies of international economic growth by Lucas, Taylor, and others.

The only question is which U.S. political party will best manifest prosperity in 2012; the candidates who do it best will win.

An intriguing multi-century trend in popular culture is the resurgence of broad interest in all things related to intelligent extraterrestrials — including potentially UFOs and the search for Earth-like planets — as we approach a new Maslow WIndow.

See: “The Klaatu Effect Signals an Accelerating Cultural Focus on Space.”

This weekend’s 2011 MUFON (Mutual UFO Network) Symposium in Irvine, California provided an irresistible opportunity to become immersed in the early 21st century world of UFOlogy and ascertain its long-term status.

Instead of its usual focus on examining UFO sightings, the theme of the 2011 MUFON Symposium is: ET Contact: The Implications for Science and Society.
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At the tony Hyatt Regency hotel just across the famous 405 freeway (“Carmageddon”) from the John Wayne Airport, the cost of attendance probably held the crowd down somewhat. For example, the main lecture room held an estimated 800 seats, and during the main presentation of the day (Richard Dolan), it was only about 2/3 full. But given the state of the economy that’s still not bad.

In addition to the main lectures which began Friday evening with astronaut Story Musgrave, the MUFON event featured 50 interesting vendors — including the celebrated abductee Travis Walton offering autographs — with many tempting books and other ET-related treasures, a concise but enjoyable UFO/ET art show, and a small, semi-secret-but-fun UFO/ET film festival. Definitely an impressive cultural event!

Dolan’s a well-known UFO historian and theorist who previously was a Rhodes Scholar finalist. His books come highly recommended so I expected a good show — and wasn’t disappointed.

Dolan’s stunning belief is that there exists a “secret space program” that he’s convinced will eventually become known to the public. He sees evidence for anomalous activities in space, including unidentified objects in Earth orbit (recorded during Shuttle missions), images of unknown bases on the Moon, and seemingly artificial structures on Mars (Cydonia). This, plus an estimated annual federal black budget of $ ~50 B (about 1/3 of the total cost of the Apollo Moon program), suggests to him the real possibility of a momentous program that may already include humans on Mars and routine interactions with ETs!

Regardless of its merits, Dolan’s story meets the criterion of an extraordinary vision of intelligent ETs as we approach within only a few years of the 2015 Maslow Window and the new International Space Age.

The afternoon session began with a puzzling presentation by John Alexander, Ph.D. who was expected to chat about “The Federal Government and Military Response to ET Contact,” but seemed more intent on offering counterpoints to most of Dolan’s talk. Alexander is a former Army colonel with apparently extensive government contacts.

After Alexander’s presentation, it would have been more satisfying to the audience to bring back Rich Dolan for a 2-person panel discussion with Alexander, including audience participation.

But more importantly, MUFON seems to have adopted the basic philosophy of the Vatican and the UK’s Royal Society toward ETs, — i.e., ETs probably exist and may be coming here, so the question is: How do we accommodate them?

Bob Zubrin of the Mars Society is also a nuclear engineer. In a recent Space News op-ed (“The VASIMR Hoax”; 7/11/11), he reports that the Obama administration insists that NASA needs a technology “breakthrough” (e.g., Space News, 7/11/11, P. 8 ) before astronauts can travel safely to Mars. VASIMR is it and “We can’t go to Mars until we have the revolutionary VASIMR, … and once it arrives, all things will be possible.”

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Should Columbus have waited for the 747 to be invented before he went to America?
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Back when I began to hear this need-new-propulsion talking point, I was surprised because it clearly isn’t true. As I mentioned in my decade space forecast in March, 2010:

4. We are the Beneficiaries of 60+ Years of Space Technology Development, and Are Capable of going to Mars, Developing the Moon, and/or Utilizing Space Resources in the Next Decade

We already have the basic technology to go to Mars and ISS can help resolve issues related to long duration human spaceflight before 2020. While advanced propulsion is always preferred on Mars missions, it is not required. Split mission concepts — where return propellants, consumables, and other cargo — are sent first to Mars orbit before the crew leaves Earth improve performance and safety for the crew vehicles. In situ resource utilization is an important technology that is needed to process propellants from water (or other substances) on Phobos and/or Mars. It needs to be developed but is hardly a showstopper.

Great explorations always involve significant risk. The risk must be identified, quantified, managed, and then accepted. In essence, you are ready to go exploring when you think you are.

Columbus and his descendants could have waited until the 747 was invented to make the trip to America — it would have been a lot safer and more comfortable — but they chose to go in 1492. There were many unknowns (a pre-mission cost/benefit analysis was difficult) and the crew suffered casualties, but the mission of exploration was a success and the world was changed.

In their 1963 EMPIRE study for NASA, German rocket scientist Krafft Ehricke and his staff at General Dynamics concluded that “Preliminary schedule analysis strongly indicates that a 1975 (manned) mission…to Mars is in the realm of realistic technological planning…” It was 6 years before the Moon landing, and Krafft Ehricke, Bill Strobl, and the other authors of the document calculated we were nearly ready to go to Mars. …

Zubrin concludes that VASIMR doesn’t hold water in the context of attempted mitigations of either cosmic radiation or zero-g effects en route to Mars. He concludes that the real cost of VASIMR goes beyond its R&D program,

its real cost … is the tens of billions that will be wasted as the human spaceflight program is kept mired in Earth orbit for the indefinite future, accomplishing nothing while waiting for the false vision to materialize …

Today’s world is afflicted by natural disasters, economic uncertainty, and global terrorism. Is it possible that President John F. Kennedy’s 50 year-old vision of human expansion into space will rise again, in ~5 years, to dominate global headlines?

This weblog — founded in May, 2008 — shows the answer is yes.

Trends over the last 200+ years (including the last decade) – in the economy, technology, and geopolitics – point to the decade between 2015 and 2025 as featuring a major economic and exploration boom like the 1960s, accompanied by a Camelot-style zeitgeist.

When the 1960s wave of space exploration is viewed in the context of other major technology, exploration, and science advances over the last 200+ years, it becomes possible to forecast the next peak in human achievement. Major events in human exploration (e.g., Lewis and Clark), massive state-of-the-art engineering projects (e.g., Panama Canal), and exceptionally destructive wars (e.g., W.W. I) are seen to cluster together twice-per-century, near times of major, JFK-style economic booms.

This empirical, long-term approach to strategic technology forecasting convincingly explains our national romance with the Apollo Moon program in the 1960s, and society’s waning interest in it in the 1970s.

Even more importantly, our scientific forecasts illuminate the probable timing and key drivers of events in our future with major implications for business, technology, and education.

21stCenturyWaves.com’s two major themes are:
A) New scientific evidence for the power of the space vision suggests that, like prior periods of significant human achievement, it is capable of being transformative for human civilization, and
B) Despite its compelling nature, the space vision will not fully begin to materialize until around 2015 when long-term trends in economics, technology, and geopolitics converge favorably again.

In the next ~5 years, major Apollo-style technology and space programs will announce the opening of the next “Maslow Window” and the new international Space Age — featuring unprecedented commercial and scientific development of Earth-Moon space, and possibly even human missions to Mars. That’s the highly likely good news.

It’s also possible that we could miss this opportunity for human expansion into the cosmos. If we do, the sobering lesson of the last 200 years is that our next realistic shot will be near the end of this century.

For more insight into our near-term future, please click … The Intro page.

Happy Birthday America !

Independence Day fireworks NASA-style as the Discovery launches on July 4, 2006
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It’s wonderful to celebrate the Declaration of Independence issued on July 4 in 1776. In particular we celebrate its most famous clause:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness

Today we believe that Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness will be inceasingly experienced around the globe as humans expand into the cosmos.

And, although the U.S. continues to experience significant economic uncertainty as well as the bittersweet last launch of the Space Shuttle this Friday, it’s clear that — on Earth and in Space –

“The Future Still Belongs to America,” according to Walter Russell Mead (WSJ, 7/2/11).

According to Professor Mead:

The geopolitics are favorable and the ideological climate is warming. But on a still-deeper level this is shaping up to be an even more American century than the last …

The is because the mega-trend of the 21st century is a “wave of change.”

Scientific and technological revolutions trigger economic, social, and political upheavals … In a century of accelerating change, the United States is better positioned to adapt than China, Europe, or the Arab world.

Wall Street’s Robert Doll (WSJ, 6/4/11) concurs that America’s edge is its “faster population growth, companies that are global in scope, and a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship.”

We are still the source of technological innovation and home to the greatest universities and the most creative businesses.

These assessments are consistent with long-term macroeconomic data and global trends that point to an approaching global economic boom which should trigger a new international Space Age by 2015.

Enjoy the fireworks!!

This is an updated end-of-June list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites during June, and II) Favorites during the Last 365 days.

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 7/1/2011

I. JUNE — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
2) AIAA — Analyst Predicts New Space Age Coming Soon — 6/30/11
3) 10 Lessons JFK and Apollo Teach Us About Ebullience and the Coming Boom — 6/26/11
4) Happy Fourth of July — Independence Day! … and Readers’ Favorite Posts — June, 2010 — 7/4/10
5) Gaus’ Declining Anxiety Wave Points to the 2015 Economic Boom — 5/29/11

II. THE LAST 365 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) The Moon is Not Enough…! — 11/22/08
2) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
3) The Allure of Moving to Mars Points to the New Space Age — 10/30/10
4) Phobos: The Key to the Cosmos? Just Ask Russia and China! — 3/27/10
5) State of the Wave: Today’s Gloom & Doom, and the 2015 Boom — 8/29/10