Oct 07 2012

The End of Israel and the Approaching 1960s-style “Critical State”

Published by at 2:50 pm under Wave Guide 9: Global Conflict

There’s a sense among many today that the world seems to be falling apart.

Do events around the globe suggest we’re entering a 1960s-style “critical state”?
(The U.S. consulate in Benghazi after a terrorist attack on 9/11/12 that killed the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans.)

For example, there is essentially zero chance that Israel will cease to exist within 10 years, although a NY Post columnist claimed recently that Henry Kissinger, of all people, suggested just that.

The columnist offers no details or confirmation and a quick scan of Kissinger’s website reveals nothing of the sort. Plus Israel’s near-term disappearance would be wildly inconsistent with Israel’s many ties — historical, cultural, strategic, political, technological, and theological — with the U.S..

Nevertheless, such rumors persist for numerous reasons including President Obama’s cool relationship with PM Netanyahu, and the Prime Minister’s recent speech to the U.N. where he casually moved the deadline for an Iran attack from pre-election back to next summer.

A friend who’s well-informed about these matters told me recently that at this point it’s unlikely Israel will attack Iran, at least without U.S. military support. And of course, a nuclear Iran would support the above rumor.

Plus there’s the recent secret U.S. intelligence community document, “Preparing for a Post-Israel Middle East,” whose title and content are consistent with the ongoing crisis in the Middle East as the U.S. continues to disengage from the region.

Current tensions in the Middle East (and elsewhere like North Korea) — including Iran and Israel — support the idea that we are approaching a 1960s-style “critical state.”

Serious international conflicts are key features near the onset of every transformative, twice-per-century “critical state” (also called a Maslow Window) of the last 200+ years. Although they may lead to war, the critical state always triggers a great exploration (e.g., Lewis and Clark), at least one huge macro-engineeriing project (e.g., the Panama Canal), and a stunning economic resurgence (e.g., a JFK-style, 5% boom).

In complexity theory, critical states such as a Maslow Window are due to spontaneous self-organizing over decades of the international economic and geopolitical system. They are extraordinary because during the critical state almost anything can occur — both good and bad — and often does.

For example, the most recent critical state was in the 1960s. It featured the Cuban missile crisis (1962) which almost triggered a nuclear war, but was over almost as fast as it began. And instead it stimulated the intense Space Race that resulted in Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin being the first humans on the Moon in 1969.

Earlier Maslow Windows were afflicted by wars. For example, the Spanish-American War (1898) followed the financial Panic of 1893 and a double-dip recession (with parallels to the Panic of 2008 and the great recession). This included the mysterious sinking of the USS Maine and future President Teddy Roosevelt’s leadership of the “Rough Riders” in Cuba. By 1899 the economy began to expand into a JFK-style boom which resulted in the Panama Canal and the heroic age of discovery of the N and S Poles.

The history of the last 200+ years and current economic and geopolitical trends suggest we are moving into a new 1960s-style critical state featuring the potential for major international conflict, a stunning economic and technology boom, and unprecedented great explorations.

As in the past, it is likely that U.S. leadership will be required to survive and prosper from the coming “bumpy road.”

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