Mar 28 2013

“One does not need technology of 2010s to place a nuclear warhead half a world away…”

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell at 9:38 pm under Wave Guide 9: Global Conflict

“… The 50-year old rocket technology from 1960 would suffice,” concludes USC Professor of Astronautics Mike Gruntman in his recent presentation on the North Korea (DPRK) satellite launch.

After 4 previous attempts, North Korea successfully launched its first satellite into Earth orbit on December 12, 2012.
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Mike cautions against the derisive tone of many media commentators,

Dismissing, denigrating, and jeering at North Korean real achievements is irresponsible, unfair, and consequential. It may lead to dangerous miscalculation by policy makers.

Based on tracking data, Mike calculates that North Korea intended to achieve a repeating sun-synchronous orbit with daily revisits covering the South — perfect for a reconnaissance satellite. And they came close; orbit inclination error was only ~0.1 degree.

Considering that North Korea’s third nuclear test was last month, Mike’s professional assessment is that,

It’s only a matter of time when North Korea achieves indigenous intercontinental ballistic missile capability and deploys operational satellites.

Last month I concluded that current geopolitical trends — such as those in Korea — suggest “we are moving into a new 1960s-style critical state featuring the potential for major, but short-lived international conflict.”

And it continues to accelerate.

For example, former chief of the CIA’s Korea Branch, Bruce Klingner notes that North Korea recently refused to recognize the armistice of the Korean War that ended in 1953, only 4 years prior to Sputnik and the opening of the 1960s “critical state” (the Apollo Maslow Window).

Earlier this week North Korea announced that all of their artillery and rocket forces have been placed on “highest state of wartime alert,” including those

assigned to strike U.S. imperialist aggressor bases on the U.S. mainland and on Hawaii and Guam and other operational zones in the Pacific, as well as all enemy targets in South Korea.

Lignet (3/19/13) concurs that the threat of a “Hot War” is real.

For the first time in decades, U.S. intelligence and defense analysts believe that the threat of an outbreak of significant hostilities on the Korean Peninsula is a distinct possibility … with casualties potentially in the hundreds of thousands, if not more.

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