Sep 10 2017

Bruce’s 1st Post-election Interview (4/28/17) on The Space Show

Published by at 5:41 pm under Uncategorized

It’s a pleasure to note that Dr. David Livingston has archived my recent 4/28/17 appearance on The Space Show at:
http://thespaceshow.com/guest/dr.-bruce-cordell

We focused on the unexpected election of President Donald Trump, which was truly a black swan event. November’s election was the electoral culmination of a political realignment that I anticipated in 2012 on the basis of long-term political patterns in the U.S.; A New Apollo-level Space Age.

Historical analogs indicate that—during times similar to today—
the widespread drive for prosperity results in a political realignment
that triggers a new economic boom. With this possibility before us, it’s
important to remember that despite how things may look today, almost
anything can happen tomorrow.

The idea that a new 1960s-style Maslow Window would open in 2015 (about a year before it did) was first forecasted by me 21 years ago on the basis on long-term trends in macroeconomics, technology development, and geopolitical patterns in Space Policy:

This result allows us to forecast that the decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog of the 1960s; i.e. it will involve major activities in technology, engineering, and human exploration. There is every reason to believe that the focus will be on large-scale human operations in space and that they will be spectacular.

Despite the hysteria and hyperpartisanship which lingers in Washington today, it’s clear that from the perspective of deep space human spaceflight, Trump’s presidency has parallels with JFK’s in the early 1960s.

The geopolitical and economic precursors that have presaged each Maslow Window over the last 200+ years are in place, and with the the completion of the political realignment (e.g., analogous to John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960), we only await ONE more step:
A large economic expansion (e.g., the early 1960s JFK Boom) is expected to begin within 2017 or early 2018. Any later will have serious political consequences for imminent rapid economic growth.

The markets, consumers, corporate earnings, CEOs, and others display surprising, persistent optimism — even the classic signs of early ebullience. They’re imagining how ballistic the economy will go when the business tax is finally cut.

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