Comments on: 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2008/06/22/10-reasons-why-china-is-good-for-space/ TECHNOLOGY BOOMS AND HUMAN EXPANSION INTO THE COSMOS Thu, 04 Dec 2008 04:04:33 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: E.P. Grondine http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2008/06/22/10-reasons-why-china-is-good-for-space/#comment-123 E.P. Grondine Wed, 09 Jul 2008 03:17:35 +0000 http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2008/06/22/10-reasons-why-china-is-good-for-space/#comment-123 Correction: "Comet Schwassmann Wahcmann 3 will be retunring in 2011, 2017, and in 2022 the Earth will be in its debris stream." Correction:
“Comet Schwassmann Wahcmann 3 will be retunring in 2011, 2017, and in 2022 the Earth will be in its debris stream.”

]]> By: E.P. Grondine http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2008/06/22/10-reasons-why-china-is-good-for-space/#comment-115 E.P. Grondine Mon, 07 Jul 2008 03:38:26 +0000 http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2008/06/22/10-reasons-why-china-is-good-for-space/#comment-115 Neither "football game" nor "cold war' is the correct analogy, as neither accounts for cometary and asteroid impact . The currently emerging facts about asteroid and comet impact have severe implications for all existing frameworks of political-economic analysis. <strong>For Response to this first part click on: "<a href="http://21stcenturywaves.com/blog/2008/07/07/comments-on-china-and-comets/" rel="nofollow">Comments on China and Comets</a>"</strong> The Chinese "dragon" appears to be a cometary symbol. The reason it developed appears to be impacts. According to tradition, China's first Emperor was killed by a comet or asteroid impact. Current research is appearing to show that China's trading fleet was destroyed by impact mega-tsunami about 1431 or so by what is known as the Great Wall of Water. What this implies for the period of western colonialism is still to be worked out. China's space leadership will be pursuing CAPS (the Comet and Asteroid Protection System) like a laser, with major decisions to be undertaken in 2016. China will seek international partners at that time, and most likely before then by the time of the Experimental Laboratory (2009-2010 or so) and later for their own Space Station (2014-2015 or so - the exact dates escape me now). What the reactions of Japan, Europe, the US, Russia will be to these invitations to cooperation are unclear. Most likely, whoever leads in impact detection will lead in space. Based on its existing research base, Russia is likely to lead in later manned flight to Mars, when that becomes desirable, my guess is much later on, after immediate problems are dealt with in communication, earth sensing, impact, etc. If China is invited into ISS after 2014-2015, my guess is that their leadership would most likely accept. But Comet Encke will be back in 2011, 2017, and in 2022 the Earth will be in its debris stream. In any case the US lunar architecture as it now sits is a dead end, as it has no practical focus except as a manned Mars test bed. Considered as the shuttle derived launch vehicle, the new Ares1 launcher seems pretty bad as well. Both 3He and microwave delivered solar power are still theoretical, and I don't know how the economics of either work out. One side effect of CAPS will be the development of adequate Moon based SETI. Neither “football game” nor “cold war’ is the correct analogy, as neither accounts for cometary and asteroid impact . The currently emerging facts about asteroid and comet impact have severe implications for all existing frameworks of political-economic analysis.

For Response to this first part click on: “Comments on China and Comets“

The Chinese “dragon” appears to be a cometary symbol. The reason it developed appears to be impacts. According to tradition, China’s first Emperor was killed by a comet or asteroid impact.

Current research is appearing to show that China’s trading fleet was destroyed by impact mega-tsunami about 1431 or so by what is known as the Great Wall of Water.
What this implies for the period of western colonialism is still to be worked out.

China’s space leadership will be pursuing CAPS (the Comet and Asteroid Protection System) like a laser, with major decisions to be undertaken in 2016. China will seek international partners at that time, and most likely before then by the time of the Experimental Laboratory (2009-2010 or so) and later for their own Space Station (2014-2015 or so - the exact dates escape me now).

What the reactions of Japan, Europe, the US, Russia will be to these invitations to cooperation are unclear. Most likely, whoever leads in impact detection will lead in space. Based on its existing research base, Russia is likely to lead in later manned flight to Mars, when that becomes desirable, my guess is much later on, after immediate problems are dealt with in communication, earth sensing, impact, etc.

If China is invited into ISS after 2014-2015, my guess is that their leadership would most likely accept. But Comet Encke will be back in 2011, 2017, and in 2022 the Earth will be in its debris stream.

In any case the US lunar architecture as it now sits is a dead end, as it has no practical focus except as a manned Mars test bed. Considered as the shuttle derived launch vehicle, the new Ares1 launcher seems pretty bad as well.

Both 3He and microwave delivered solar power are still theoretical, and I don’t know how the economics of either work out.

One side effect of CAPS will be the development of adequate Moon based SETI.

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