Southern New Mexico has to be in the running for the global title of Most Ebullience per Capita, even rivaling Panama. Spaceport America (near Las Cruces) — the world’s first commercial spaceport and host last week of a major conference on commercial spaceflight — is taking off!

Spaceport America may open in 2010. Click .

Executive Director Steve Landeene says, “We’re in the very early stage of creating a new kind of air transport system. Space tourism is the first phase, along with the commercial launching of satellites and spacecraft that can carry cargo and even astronauts to the international space station and maybe later the moon,” (Washington Post, 5/10/08)

Wow — A vision for launching astronauts to ISS, and maybe later the Moon!! Not bad for a site initially eyed by Stanford University and NASA in the early 1990s as a passive, reusable space capsule landing site, and more recently, that survived the exciting prospects of single stage-to-orbit operations at the “Southwest Regional Spaceport” only to see it fade away in 2001 with the cancellation of VentureStar.

Of course it helps to have Richard Branson agree to make New Mexico the world headquarters of Virgin Galactic as well as the primary tenant of Spaceport America, explained Landeene at San Diego’s AIAA Space 08 Conference in September. And other campanies such as UP Aerospace and Lockheed Martin also plan future launches from the $ 225 million Spaceport.

The type of early ebullience characteristic of the runup to the next Maslow Window is exemplified by serious futuristic talk about “point-to-point” intercontinental transport; where rocket-powered vehicles move cargo or passengers between spaceports much faster than is possible now. In a recent interview in Space News (10/20/08) Landeene confirms that, “Even just a few months ago people were trying to keep this idea low profile…But I do believe we’re going to see that kind of transportation…I don’t hear any naysayers.”

Spaceport America’s recent success includes passage of a sales tax in support of the Spaceport in 2 nearby counties. A third county will vote in November and then a Spaceport Tax District must be formed to administer the revenue by the end of 2008. Assuming their pending Environmental Impact Statement is approved and the FAA grants a Spaceport Operators License, they’ll become the first commercial portal to the cosmos in late 2010!

The Big Question is what to do after 2010 when the Shuttle is retired? Many ask if it makes sense to rely on a guy like Vladimir Putin for a ride to the Space Station.

For Putin’s violent little adventure in Georgia, President Bush has sought appropriate punishment and Secretary of State Condi Rice has said “There can be no business as usual…” As a result, the President’s major initiative to increase US-Russian collaboration on nuclear energy production is at least temporarily dead in the Senate (Wall Street Journal, 8/23/08). And, although supported by US Senator Bill Nelson (FL), a waiver that would allow the US to buy launch services to ISS from Russia (required because they sell nuclear technology to Iran) must be passed ASAP (e.g., by January) by a reluctant Senate.

One result of the long-term approach used here at 21stCenturyWaves.com, is the realization that as we approach a Maslow Window (coming in 5 - 7 years), international tensions will probably increase; sadly, the last 200 years shows they always have. And in this dynamic international environment, while collaborations with potential geopolitical opponents are usually productive, becoming dependent on them for key space services is not.

But the good news is that SpaceDev of Poway, CA is here to potentially save the day. They want to stack their Dream Chaser piloted spacecraft on an Atlas V launch vehicle — a modernized descendant of the early Atlas, developed by my former company General Dynamics, that launched the first American — John Glenn — into orbit in 1962. (Incidentally, I remember little about my first day on the job in the early 1980s at the Kearney Mesa plant in San Diego, except being given a tour of the Atlas assembly facility. A life-altering experience for a total space guy like myself!)

A view of the spectacular General Dynamics Atlas assembly line in Kearney Mesa (San Diego);
Click .

SpaceDev’s Frank Taylor and Russell Howard reported recently (AIAA-2008-7837) on preliminary trade studies and analysis of this Dream Chaser/Atlas V concept for servicing missions to the Space Station and judge it to be “promising.”

The Atlas V includes a dual-engine cryogenic Centaur upper stage and 2 strap-on Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs). Dream Chaser is always a piloted vehicle with 6 crew on a personnel mission and 1 pilot on a cargo mission, with 4000 to 6000 pound payload capability to ISS. Atlas V can enhance payload capability by using up to 5 SRBs. The need for rapid separation and escape during an abort after launch drives their preference for a no-fairing option (surrounding the DC). The DC/Atlas V combination would launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and could use the Shuttle Landing Facility if necessary.

Key remaining issues include achieving human-rating for the Atlas V and aerodynamic controllability of the integrated vehicle. Possible development schedules were not discussed in the AIAA paper and neither was cost, although it is likely to be considerable.

But with a little luck, for 2010, it’s potentially a Dream Chaser come true!

The seminal Lewis and Clark expedition (1804-06) explored the Lousiana Territory through to the Pacific and has more parallels with the 1960s Apollo Moon program and lessons for future human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars than most people realize. The top 10 lessons of Lewis & Clark include:

10. Despite political opposition, Thomas Jefferson was enthralled by the exciting science and monumental strategic implications of exploring an overland route to the Pacific. Analogous to President Kennedy’s 1961 speech to Congress announcing the manned Moon landing, Jefferson pursuaded Congress by explaining his visionary rationales and requesting funding in a letter. Like both of these Great Explorations,
Presidential leadership will be a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for any major space initiative like humans to Mars.

9. While Kennedy had the Soviet’s Cold War aggressions to deal with, Jefferson had to deflect Napoleon’s desires for a North American empire. In 1802 Jefferson wrote, “Every eye in the U.S. is now fixed on this affair of Louisiana. Perhaps nothing…has produced more uneasy sensations through the body of the nation.” Jefferson decided to send Lewis and Clark through Louisiana to the Pacific no matter who controlled it, and Kennedy boldly decided to go to the Moon in 8 years, although no one was sure it could be done. Like Lewis & Clark and Apollo, a compelling national strategic challenge (including international confrontations) will play a role in motivating Moon and/or Mars programs.

8. The 1960s Apollo Maslow Window featured the spectacular Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo space programs which — in 8 years — culminated in the first man on the Moon in 1969. While not as well-planned as Apollo, Jefferson’s 3 pre-Lewis & Clark attempts to explore the northwest go all the way back to 1783 and, although unsuccessful, were highly instructive. They included a plan to explore from the Pacific coast eastward to St. Louis after a water passage from Russia; unfortunately, the would-be explorers were arrested in Russia and deported. The bottomline is: the first manned Mars expeditions may experience difficulties and will require at least a decade (one Maslow Window) of intense operational and technological preparations.

7. On April 11, 1803, when Napoleon decided it was more important to fund his European war machine than keep Louisiana for France — “I renounce Louisiana…not only New Orleans…the whole colony…reserving none of it,” — it may have surprised Jefferson, but he was definitely ready for action. Indeed the Corps of Discovery departed St. Louis only one year later. Likewise, although initially caught offguard by the surprise Soviet launch of Sputnik in 1957, NASA was formed in 1958 and Neil Armstrong took “one small step for a man…” on the Moon less than 12 years later. Although the world is full of wildcards,
the antidote for a Sputnik-like surprise in the next 5-7 years is focused preparation, many international partners, and the ability to anticipate the unexpected.

6. As is typical for Maslow Windows, the decade just prior to Lewis & Clark was a major economic boom; per capita income increased by 25%, international credit was almost unlimited, and by 1800 the U.S. population’s doubling time was 22 years! The 1960s economic boom was unparalleled and, “For the first time in human history, a majority of people (in the U.S.)…could have all of their needs and most of their desires met on demand.”
The last 200 years — including Lewis & Cark and Apollo — show that Great Explorations (and Macro-Engineering Projects) are fundamentally triggered by major, rhythmic, twice-per-century economic booms that result in an unusual level of societal affluence and ebullience. This creates a mindset — as people ascend Maslow’s Heirarchy — where great explorations and large technology projects are not only favored, but seem almost irresistible.

5. Lewis & Clark were “shocked” to learn that the Rockies are not just a single wall of mountains immediately adjacent to the Columbia River headwaters; imagine the shocks awaiting future explorers on a complex, Earthlike world like Mars! On Mars there will be no friendly natives (such as at the Nez Perce Camp) willing to feed starving explorers, suggesting that a “split mission” strategy — where food, consumables, and return propellants are sent FIRST to Mars — makes a lot of sense. Lewis & Clark’s length of mission (2+ years), planned wintering in Oregon before return (like waiting for an orbital launch window to open), and other parallels suggest that aspiring Mars explorers need to be scientifically and psychologically prepared to handle anything, and might even benefit from the journals of Lewis & Clark and other long-term explorers (e.g., Magellan).

4. The Jay Treaty in 1794 opened new markets in Canada and the Great Lakes for the North American fur trade industry and by 1800 made some wealthy, including John Jacob Astor.
Inspired by Lewis & Clark, Astor used his wealth to open up the West by founding Fort Astoria and by sponsoring the Astor Expedition (1810-12), during which South Pass in Wyoming was discovered. For Oregon Trail emigrants and others, South Pass became the key to continental passage by land.
Entrepreneurs and adventurers (e.g., mountain men) played a major role in opening up the West. Today Richard Branson and others may be the new John Jacob Astors as they seek the low energy, safe, economical path — like Astor’s South Pass — to space.

3. The War of 1812 — a tragic example of post-Lewis & Clark ebullience gone wild as Americans unrealistically attempted to militarily conquer Canada — delayed post-Lewis & Cark attempts (like Fort Astoria) to open the West to commerce and people until about 1820. And by 1834 the fur market had declined. The famous Bank Panic of 1837 was a financial collapse second only to the Great Depression; the Panic delayed economic growth for several years until it accelerated again toward the next Maslow Window in 1847. Despite creating great financial hardship for many, the 1837 Panic also provided incentive for some to move west. Alhough economic recessions cause turmoil and hardship for many, the last 200 years show they are usually relatively brief (< 1 year) and inevitably give way to the major economic boom of the next Maslow Window. On the other hand, wars -- like 1812 or Vietnam -- always reduce or terminate Maslow-driven ebullience as well as the great explorations and MEPs (e.g., manned Mars) linked with them.

2. The journals of Lewis & Clark generated great interest in the West and made it possible for many to migrate there during the NEXT Maslow Window (opening in 1847). The migration westward did not follow Lewis & Clark immediately because of the War of 1812, economic stresses (including the Panic of 1837), and the time needed for both Lewis & Clark’s message to diffuse and emigrants to get organized. By 1846 the nation was really on the move with about 20,000 westward-heading emigrants.
The following are consistent with Lewis & Clark and the Great Migration West: 1) the colonization of space did NOT occur immediately after Apollo but is expected to begin during the 2015 Maslow Window, 2) Mid-19th Century westward migrations were limited by financial, operational, and safety factors, which will also influence early 21st Century space colonization, and 3) the first humans may start exploring Mars (during the 2015 Maslow Window) simultaneously with the first steps toward space colonization (orbital and lunar hotels) and space industrialization (solar power sats).

1. Ebullience!!! The California Gold Rush began in 1848 (until 1855) with 300,000 people being drawn to California. In the first 5 years about 370 t of gold was removed ($ 7 B at 2006 prices) with many times that being extracted over he next few decades. The Gold Rush coincided almost exactly with the mid-19th Century Maslow (Dr. Livingstone in Africa) Window, 1847-57, and displayed classic ebullience. One author sees the Gold Rush as a national fork in the road because it, “marked the moment when people stopped believing that hard work leads to a good life…(and) that anyone could strike it rich…a pursuit that continues to this day,” — a very ebullient mindset! The end of the Gold Rush and threat of the Civil War in 1860 moderated this attitude. One gold rush analog for space will be tourism. In the 1950s, New York’s Hayden Planetarium solicited reservations for Moon trips and collected 100,000; how’s that for pre-Apollo ebullience?! And in the late 1960s Apollo era, Pan Am’s commercials used to feature the tease line, “Who’s the only airline with a waiting list for the Moon?” after collecting tens of thousands of eager Moon trippers. So the market’s definitely there. Space tourism will start next year with brief suborbital jaunts but will soon graduate to weekend stays in Earth orbit hotels. Honeymoons at the Moon could materialize in the 2020s. Space resource “gold” could eventually include the Sun’s energy (collected in space for use on Earth), and oxygen (from the Moon) and/or water (from Mars) for habitation and rocket propellants.

With Moonbases becoming the international status symbol for aspiring space powers and entrepreneurs beginning to tap the $ multi-Billion space tourism market, the 2015 Maslow Window may eventually make us think of the California Gold Rush as a rather quaint, restrained period in U.S. history!

Nothing says ebullience like sex and beer!!

Here at 21stCenturyWaves.com “ebullience” is a technical term associated with twice-per-century economic booms which elevate society to the highest levels of the Maslow Hierarchy. This extraordinary confluence of affluence and ebullience creates a climate supportive of great explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark), stunning MEPs (e.g., Panama Canal),…and even other things. (See Economic Growth, Wave Guide 1.)

Virgin Galactic has been receiving requests from couples aspiring to be the first to have sex in space. Achieving intercourse in low gravity is of fundamental importance if we’re to ever colonize the cosmos with our progeny. But according to UPI, space medicine expert Dr. James Logan warns that, “Couples would likely find sex without gravity to be more trouble than it’s worth.” However in my opinion, space sex is going to be HOT!

Zero gravity will allow couples to be more mobile but a space chapter will have to be added to the Kama Sutra. Bedrooms will have grips installed on the ceiling for those kinds of positions, and couples will be outfitted with vanilla velcro! The more adventurous couples will be able to finally achieve the elusive “retrograde wheelbarrow” (a very athletic love position).

Of course, it’s only appropriate that copulating space couples bond over a bottle of beer. Japan’s famous Sapporo Holdings Ltd. is planning on brewing a beer using barley harvested from space. There is no reported difference in taste, but I do enjoy the novelty of it and it’s nice to know that I may one day have the luxury of responsibly drinking in space.

Here’s to ebullience!

In his interesting article in The Atlantic (June, 2008) Gregg Easterbrook emphasizes the threat of asteroid impacts on Earth by saying, “Wouldn’t shifting NASA’s focus away from wasting money on the Moon and toward…deflecting dangerous space objects…” be more likely to increase national prestige? Let’s examine a few of the misconceptions in this question.

The discovery and characterization of asteroids is a NASA function but their removal as a threat (at least to the U.S.) would probably be coordinated by DoD. Legalities aside, the bigger issue is that few people understand the seriousness of the asteroid threat to Earth. The last megaton-level impact was in 1908 in Siberia. Not many of us were alive then and nobody’s been killed since, so it’s hard to identify with.

Easterbrook quotes the odds as 10% per century “of a dangerous space-object strike” somewhere on Earth. The last 200 years indicate — and this blog continues to document –that the next international race to space will begin within 5 to 10 years (See The Forecasts). Fortunately, a space-strike that could “kill millions” is very unlikely in the next few years, and that’s probably the only way in the short term to focus national attention on this issue.

What do the last 200 years teach us? (For more see The Forecasts or The Articles.) Great human explorations, macro-engineering projects (MEPs), and major wars cluster around extraordinary economic booms every 56 years or so. Interestingly, the great explorations display a geographically logical sequence (from the most accessible unknown areas to the least accessible): NW America (Lewis & Clark), Equatorial Africa (Dr. Livingstone), Polar Regions (Peary et al.), Moon (Apollo).

By analogy with the California Gold Rush following Lewis & Clark by 5 decades, we would expect increased human operations in Earth-Moon space (e.g., solar power satellites) while astronauts explore Mars (the next logical exploration target in the sequence above). The U.S. and others are already planning Moon bases by 2020, and by next year, tourists will begin paying for short vacations in space (the new space “gold” rush!); so the ramp-up to this expected Moon/Mars activity is already visible. When asteroid impacts become widely perceived as a threat to civilization, their mitigation will benefit from this expanded Earth-Moon space scenario.

The definition of space colonization is to “live, work, and play in space” for a comfortably long period. And eventually, part of this experience for some lucky people will be to start their married lives together in space. “Eventually” may not be too much longer according to the UK’s Daily Mail who reported last month that Sir Richard Branson, the billionaire boss of Virgin Galactic, plans to be the first person to marry a couple in space. The happy couple is on the first flight sometime in 2009.

Virgin Galactic’s cost per person is $ 200,000. Reportedly 200 people have already reserved seats on the two-hour suborbital flights that peak 70 miles up (officially in space) and experience a black, twinkle-free, star-filled sky, and a brief zero-g experience. Physicist Steven Hawking and actress Victoria Principal are booked (not to get married, by the way!). This is definitely early “ebullient” behavior signaling our approach to the 2015 Maslow Window (See Perspectives Wave Guides 1 and 6), and will become even more compelling as more companies join the space tourism business and competition drives the prices down.

When the suborbital tourist business matures and prospers, you’ll be able to spend your honeymoon (first or second!) in an Earth-orbit hotel! The Shimizu Corporation proposed an innovative design in 1989.

The Shimizu Space Hotel concept spins around a 70 meter radius. .

Their concept features 0.7g artificial gravity using a 3 rpm hotel spin with 64 guest habitation modules. During the guests’ 2 day stays, part of the excitement will be deciding when to enjoy weightlessness and when to retreat to their suite for near-normal gravity! Shimizu’s 1989 cost study assumed 11,500 guests per year at the orbital hotel with a price of $ 43,500 per guest.

Fifty-six years ago in 1952 there were no space entrepreneurs, but what did exist — although Earth-bound — was almost as exciting: Colliers magazine began its first-ever series on “Man Will Conquer Space Soon.” Headed by Wernher von Braun, Colliers’ staff of world-class space experts collectively asked, “What are we waiting for?” and then compellingly described each step of the human expansion into space including the Von Braun “Wheel”, the subsurface Moon base, and the convoy to Mars!

As the space tourism industry prepares for launch, today’s aspiring space adventurers are not limited to just reading about cosmic joys, but will soon experience them personally. Bert Rutan, the dean of space-tourism advocates, who won the $ 10 million X-Prize in 2004, believes he can fly 100,000 passengers on his suborbital spaceships by 2020! Rutan is currently supplying spaceships to British billionaire Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic and expects the first launch in 2010 for about $ 200,000 per person. Branson’s passengers will zoom to 60 miles altitude and officially enter space. The first-ever space tourism price war is taking shape according to the Wall Street Journal (3/26/08) as XCOR Aerospace will offer thrill-seekers a ride to 37 miles altitude featuring 2 minutes of zero-g, for only $ 100,000.

Although currently not officially targeting space tourism, Bigelow Aerospace (Las Vegas) does operate the first two private space stations in history. Despite their smallish size, the Bigelow inflatable habitation modules are the precursors of orbital hotels. Undoubtedly, the future private space industry will feature orbital hotels for the penultimate astronaut-like vacation experience: circling the Blue Marble repeatedly with sunrises and sunsets every 90 minutes. The ultimate astronaut-like tourist experience is a trip to the Moon, which is already offered by the Russians through their American agent Space Adventures. Because of the hefty price ($ 100 M) and undeniable risks there have been no takers…yet. The elaborate, inviting lunar surface hotel concepts of Shimizu remain a golden dream for the 2020s.

The space tourism industry can be thought of as a spectacular, but secondary MEP — analogous to the famous 1912 passenger ship the Titanic (minus the sinking!) — heralding the approaching Maslow Window of 2015. Because of their innovations, space entrepreneurs stimulate public, business, government, and even international interest in space as they develop new concepts that challenge historical approaches and promise new adventures and profits. Wave Guide 6 posts will monitor the space entrepreneurs’ progress and their impact on the rapidly approaching 2015 Maslow Window.