Until a few days ago the plan was to hitchhike a ride on a Russian Soyuz after the Shuttle is retired in 2010 and before its replacement is ready in 2015, when American astronauts need access to the International Space Station (ISS) .

Now we’re not so sure.

According to U.S. Senator Bill Nelson from Florida, who spent 6 days in 1986 orbiting the Earth in the Shuttle Columbia (STS- 61C), “There will be consequences not just for Russia but for the U.S. too. That’s a $ 100 billion investment up there that we won’t have access to.”

The problem is a 2000 law that prohibits U.S. purchases of Russian technology — including Soyuz spacecraft — as long as Russia is exporting nuclear technology to Iran. The planned Congressional waiver would have enabled NASA to use the Soyuz to transport astronauts to the space station after 2010.

Now, the word from Washington is the waiver is DOA and there’s no back-up plan for ISS. This turn of events is particularly interesting considering Buzz Aldrin’s and other’s recent comments about the lack of plans for a commercial vehicle to reach ISS and opinion polls that revealed a relative lack of public concern.

Unfortunately, an increase in tensions potentially with Russia and/or other nations is expected based on the last 200 years of international conflicts. Despite our desire to avoid it, some see a return already to a Cold War mentality; for example, Russia’s recent attack of Georgia has similarities to the 1956 Soviet invasion of Hungary. That was rapidly followed by the surprise launch of Sputnik which triggered the first race to space.

Hopefully this time we can avoid most of the violence and engage cooperatively in our global 21st Century thrust into space, as we approach the spectacular 2015 Maslow Window.

The Washington Post reports this morning (Marc Kaufman, 7/9/08) in a front page article that the U.S. has a plethora of competitors in space and that it’s losing global “dominance” in this arena. Joseph Fuller, Jr., president of Futron Corporation, concludes that, “Systemic and competitive forces threaten U.S. space leadership.”

Many countries have access to space themselves, choose their own astronauts, run their own robotic planetary programs, and some even have plans for bases on the Moon — the new status symbol of growing space powers.

According to the Post, this growing global competence in space is exacerbated by the 2003 Columbia disaster and the widespread perception that NASA is underfunded relative to its goals. Plus the real killer is the 5-year Shuttle gap when the U.S. won’t be able to launch its own astronauts to the space station; however, polls show that the potential seriousness of this has not yet reached the American people, although Buzz Aldrin has publicly drawn attention to it recently.

As an American space enthusiast, it gives me no pleasure to report such information, but frankly, it’s following closely the pattern of Great Explorations and MEPs over the last 200 years, and is especially reminiscent of the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window.

One very possible forecast that has appeared on this site is an international replay of the 1957 Sputnik shock, because America’s complacency and errors are making the U.S. vulnerable to growing space programs around the world. Based on the timing of the 1950s, the next international race to space might be triggered near 2013, but the way things are evolving, it might come even sooner.

Every other Friday the State of the Wave summarizes specific progress toward the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window and movement toward real, near-term space colonization. The focus is on events and trends from around the world of long-range significance, especially in the context of the 10 Wave Guides.

The last two weeks have featured remarkable activity supporting the notion that the State of the Wave is robust and dynamic toward the 2015 Maslow Window. This momentum is due to government and commercial activities reflecting long-term trends as well as the accelerating U.S. presidential campaign.

Buzz Aldrin led the charge recently by declaring it’s time to invest in NASA or risk losing America’s leadership in space for the rest of the century; that’s a long time, by the way! He’s especially disturbed about the 5 year Shuttle gap starting in 2010, and feels that the Chinese could win the race back to Moon, or maybe even Mars. Although he didn’t use the term, he’s talking about a Sputnik-like shock for the West — one possible mode for the next race to space. Buzz pledges to personally educate each presidential candidate as to what’s a stake.

Speaking of McCain and Obama, Intrade.com’s clients believe there’s a 60.5% probability that Obama will win in November and 30.5% chance of success for McCain, while Gallup’s opinion polls show a “modest” advantage for Obama of 47% to 43% over McCain, of registered voters during 6/30 - 7/2. To the extent that long-term economic and military trends are significant, it still appears to us that McCain has an advantage, but the campaign is very young. Aviation Week and Space Technology magazine’s editor-in-chief calls McCain “…a known but feared quantity.” and Obama “…a blank slate.” Whatever the outcome of this election, and despite its current economic challenges, the U.S. is likely to play a large role in the next race to space. More to come this week.

What superlatives are left to describe the very positive state of human spaceflight (e.g., ISS) and space science (e.g., Phoenix Mars lander)? In particular, Japan has superb accomplishments in both areas and has demonstrated the type of international cooperation that all countries will aspire to as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window and contemplate a global space organization.

Pre-Maslow “ebullience” is clearly evident in the Panama Canal Expansion project (and many other non-space MEPs) and in plans for space tourism in Russia and Japan. Russia has a new agreement with an unnamed private entity (possibly Space Adventures) to build a Soyuz especially for tourists; trips begin in 2011 if you want to make reservations. Also starting in 2011 is an opportunity in Japan to get married in space. Cost is $ 2.2 M and involves Rocketplane.

Recently, each State of the Wave has shown that if you like technology- and space-related ebullience, and the long-term prosperity and human expansion they bring — this is increasingly your kind of world!

Buzz Aldrin, the 2nd man on the Moon, is right. The Telegraph.co.uk (6/29/08) reports he’s publicly warning that unless we invest now in the future of space, we will “surrender leadership of space exploration to Russia and China,” for the rest of the century.

In fact, as I have shown (see Cordell, 1996 and 2006), long-term economic and social trends point to the next international Apollo-style race to space starting near 2013 - 2015, this time involving possibly China and others. This would create huge opportunities for science and math instruction, much like the President Kennedy’s Apollo Moon program did in the 1960s. And this time, it would happen simultaneously with the retirements of massive numbers of baby boomers in key engineering and related fields.

But what if we’re are not prepared? In that case we may experience a replay of the Sputnik shock of 1957, and attempt a crash program in education and space technology to catch up.

Buzz thinks it’s “abysmal” that, in NASA’s 50th anniversary year and after spending $ 100 B on International Space Station, “…we can’t get our own astronauts to our space station without relying on the Russians,” because of Shuttle’s planned retirement in 2010.

He wonders why commercial alternatives that might have taken U.S. astronauts to ISS between 2010 and 2015 were not adequately funded. These are the crucial five years just prior to the opening of the spectacular 2015 Maslow Window, when crewed access to space will be important.

The Chinese have a great opportunity to win the return to the Moon. To do that, according to Buzz, all they have to do is, “…fly around the Moon and back…” In fact, just landing a Chinese astronaut on the Moon for a day, “…and he’d be a national hero.”

“We can do wonderful science on the Moon, and wonderful commercial things. Then we can pack up and move on to Mars.” Buzz will share these ideas with both McCain and Obama to guarantee NASA is funded to greet the future as a leader.

I had the pleasure, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, of meeting and getting to know Buzz when he visited us at General Dynamics in San Diego and also at Case for Mars Conferences. If he isn’t your all-time favorite astronaut, or at least one of them, he should be!