Tuesday the Coalition for Space Exploration provided a fascinating peek into the space imaginations of the American public. Their Gallup Poll registers high support for space in general, suggesting the next race to space is not far away. But other responses, reminiscent of the pre-Sputnik public in the early-to-mid 1950s, show the next Maslow WIndow has not arrived. In general, recent Gallup Polls remain consistent with 21st Century Waves forecasts.

For example, 71% of respondents in April, 2008 said the U.S. was doing a good or a very good job maintaining its leadership in space; that’s up from 67% in March, 2006. Over the same time period, Americans who said the U.S. was doing either a good job or a very good job handling the War on Terror hovered near 50%. Obviously NASA has won back the confidence of the American people.

Softer support appeared when Gallup asked about increasing NASA’s budget from 1/6% to 1% (of the federal budget) to enable America’s return to the Moon and plans for Mars. This is equivalent to giving up one large pizza every 4 months, but only 52% said they would support it or strongly support it. Young people were most interested in Moon trips (and pizzas!); 62% of those between 18 and 34 either supported or strongly supported the Moon fee. This is consistent with 71% of respondents who felt that America’s space program inspires young people to study science, math, and/or technical fields — a lesson learned in the 1960s during the Apollo Maslow Window.

Widespread (71%) warm, fuzzy feelings for U.S. space leadership coupled with only a luke-warm embrace (52%) of a pizza-like NASA budget increase is consistent with our approaching the next Maslow Window (@ 2015), but having not yet entered it. (See Education Perspective, Wave Guide 4.)

Gallup also asked about China’s announced plan to send astronauts to the Moon (in 2017), beating NASA by a year. Between March, 2006 and April, 2008 during 3 surveys, only about 1/3 of those queried were somewhat concerned or very concerned. Likewise, the 5-year gap — from Shuttle retirement in 2010 to Constellation launch in 2015 — when NASA will have to depend on Russian launch vehicles to access the International Space Station, somewhat concerned or very concerned only 47% of respondents.

Why shouldn’t Americans be confident? It’s been over 40 years since anyone challenged U.S. dominance in space. However, this calm attitude is reminiscent of pre-Sputnik times in the mid-1950s during the International Geophysical Year just before Sputnik’s surprise launch shocked the nation. On the other hand, there is no reason for anxiety or fear of either China or Russia during the next 5 - 7 years, just the realization that the next race to space will be competitive.

Actually, competition is good for space. If you don’t agree, ask yourself: When was the last time any astronaut escaped from low Earth orbit into deep space?

It was too long ago: December, 1972 when Gene Cernan and Jack Schmitt traipsed on the Moon. That was the end of the first competitive race to space. Hopefully, the 2015 Maslow Window will feature spectacular, international cosmic competition in a peaceful, constructive framework.

Sometimes a trend is very disturbing but potentially of strategic importance to the next race to space, so it cannot be ignored. The possibility of a new cold war is the perfect example.

In the 1950s, Cold War pressures between the Soviet Union and the United States played a major role in stimulating the first race to space (see Politics-Wave Guide 3, and Global Conflict-Wave Guide 9). It was the unexpected 1957 launch of Sputnik that almost instantly stimulated a nationwide crisis in education at all levels in America, the founding of NASA, and the inspirational 1961 commitment by President John F. Kennedy to land a man on the Moon before the end of the decade.

It isn’t just that last August President Putin started long-range patrols with strategic bombers that hadn’t occurred since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. And, it isn’t just that Putin attended the NATO Summit this March seeking to discourage deployment of missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic. It’s not even “Putin’s torture colonies”, as described by the Wall Street Journal (2/12/08), that were toned down under Yeltsin, but sadistically reinitiated when Putin came to power.

According to Edward Lucas, who’s covered Eastern Europe for 20 years for The Economist, it’s all these things and more, in his new book The New Cold War. Russia’s current Soviet-style issues include: return of the KGB, pressuring former Soviet satellite states, intimidation of journalists, repression of internal dissent, and the global threat of Russia’s huge oil and gas reserves.

Today, we already have the War on Terror. Superimposing a new cold war on this situation would be extremely dangerous. A new cold war would hugely impact the 2015 Maslow Window, and make this decade more like the 1960s than anyone would want it to be.

Education has always been closely linked to space and this was never more true than on October 4, 1957, the day the world changed. That’s Sputnik Day — a time certainly not celebrated during the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window in the U.S. — when the Soviets launched humanity’s first artificial satellite into low Earth orbit. Ironically, American forces led by German rocket expert Wernher von Braun, could probably have orbited one first but President Eisenhower was in no hurry according to Paul Dickson in his 2001 book, Sputnik — The Shock of the Century.

Only 10 days later the New York Times identified U.S. education as the problem, because Soviet science students were better motivated and given more prestige. Scholastic Magazine chimed in by announcing a “classroom Cold War” with the Soviets. Indeed, within a few months a Gallup poll reported that 70% of respondents believed that U.S. high school students should become more educationally competitive with their Soviet counterparts! And in 1958 Congress advocated beefing up math and science education from the elementary to high schools. Senators as diverse as John F. Kennedy (soon to be the first “Space President”) of Massachusetts and Barry Goldwater of Arizona were even willing to accept new taxes to meet the Soviet educational challenge in space.

This is a hallmark of Maslow Windows: loosening of federal and other purse strings to pursue a lofty goal of international significance. In 1969 U.S. News & World Report reported that although initial cost estimates for the Moon project had been up to $ 40 B, “Congress raised hardly any questions (and)…Initial funds were appropriated swiftly to send Project Apollo on its way.”

As we approach the 1960s-style economic boom of the next Maslow Window (fully ramped-up by 2015) these patterns will repeat. In short: 1) a major Sputnik-like shock will occur near 2013 (1957 + 56) involving probably China and their international partners; see Wave Guide 5, 2) the American public will raise urgent questions about the viability of American math and science education and demand reforms, and 3) the new “Space President”, a John F. Kennedy-like figure, will respond by committing the U.S. to spectacular, unprecedented activities in space with essentially unanimous support from Congress; see Wave Guide 3.

Upcoming posts will track this burgeoning tsunami of public concern about American math and science education as it peaks and breaks on the shore of international affairs within a few short years.