Last week the National Intelligence Council (NIC) released its most recent unclassified global briefing, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World that closely parallels forecasts of this weblog. 21stCenturyWaves.com forecasts are based on patterns in long-term trends in the economy, technology, exploration, and society over the last 200 years, that include spectacular pulses of Great Explorations and Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) known as Maslow Windows.

NIC provides long-term strategic thinking for the U.S. Intelligence Community and reports to the Director of National Intelligence. It has a Deputy National Intelligence Officer for each of 12 areas and subject matters, including East Asia, Europe, Russia and Eurasia, Economics and Global Issues, and Military Issues, etc., and consults with experts in academia and the private sector.

Global Trends 2025’s preliminary assessments for the next 15 years include:

1) We should expect “unprecedented economic growth.” This NIC assessment is completely consistent with this weblog’s economic forecasts that include rhythmic, twice-per-century major economic booms; the next one should culminate around 2025. This “unprecedented economic growth” is essential for the affluence and ebullience that’s driven the spectacular Great Explorations and MEPs of Maslow Windows over the last 200 years.

2) “The whole international system — as constructed following WW II — will be revolutionized.” There will be “new players — Brazil, Russia, India, China — …at the international high table…bringing new stakes and rules…” This NIC expectation is consistent with the history of exploration over the last 200 years and supports our forecast that NASA will become more globally oriented. More specifically it supports our 1992 concept for a truly global space organization (like Interspace) that could take shape in 4-6 years to optimally focus global assets on human exploration of the solar system.

3) “The potential for conflict will increase…and the unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East …will continue…” Sadly, the last 200 years show that every Maslow Window of the last 200 years is terminated by a major war; this NIC assessment is consistent with our forecast of another major war in the mid-2020s. If this war comes early (e.g., 2020), in addition to widespread death and destruction, we could lose many or most of the Great Explorations and MEPs anticipated for the next Maslow Window. The timing of the major 2020s war remains a total wildcard of crucial importance.

Like James Bond, who believed that “The World is Not Enough!”, The Planetary Society thinks the Moon is not enough…and frankly I agree with them!

The World is not enough… Click .

I’ve always liked Lou Friedman and The Planetary Society! Explore the planets, humans to Mars, an international team — what’s not to like? It’s practically the meaning of life! I also enjoyed their new roadmap to the solar system: Beyond the Moon: A New Roadmap for Human Space Exploration in the 21st Century. And the title of their plan says it all: the Moon is not enough. They have clear differences with NASA’s current Vision for Space Exploration.

The Moon is not enough… Click .

There are now three fundamental visions for space: 1) NASA’s current Moon-focused Vision for Space Exploration, (VSE) 2) The Planetary Society’s roadmap featuring Mars, and 3) a vision with interstellar travel to the nearby stars as its focus. Vision 3 has been championed by the British Interplanetary Society since its 1970s Project Daedalus study, as well as by Gene Roddenberry. More recently it has resurfaced as a way to promote a multidecade, global commitment to human space exploration; in essence they believe that Mars is not enough.

Is Mars enough? Click .

The model of this weblog (e.g., Cordell, 2006, and “Forecasting...”) has met with considerable success in explaining great explorations and technology development over the last 200 years in the context of long-term fluctuations in the economy. For example, a) this model explains why Apollo began when it did and why it ended abruptly (as well as all the other Great Explorations over the last 200 years), b) the model pointed to a financial panic near 2008 and Obama’s likely election (although I failed to explicitly forecast them!), and 3) the model projects what we currently observe — increasing global interest in space as we approach another ebullient 1960s-like decade: the 2015 Maslow Window.

So in the context of this long-term economic model, I want to offer a few comments on the Planetary Society’s roadmap:

1. The program focus — Moon, Mars, interstellar — really matters from a marketing perspective. The Moon suffers from the fact that humans went there 6 times almost 40 years ago. This might encourage a “been there, done that” attitude. Or will the global public see human exploration of the Moon like past generations viewed terrestrial Great Explorations; i.e., progressing from more accessible locations like northwest North America (Lewis & Clark) to more distant ones like central Africa (”Dr. Livingstone I presume”) and both polar regions (early 20th Century)? However, if the global public views the Moon as just one more stop on the road to Mars and beyond, the sequence of Great Explorations over the last 200 years — North America, central Africa, Polar regions, Moon — suggests that Mars makes a more alluring program focus — from a marketing perspective — than the Moon.

2. Global momentum is currently toward the Moon. The U.S., with its International Lunar Network, as well as many other countries (including China, Japan) have expressed strong interests in Moon bases circa 2020. Authoritative sources (e.g., National Intelligence Council) forecast a “revolutionized” international system toward 2025 (during the 2015 Maslow Window) including new players at the high table (e.g., Brazil, India) and new rules. This will enhance U.S. plans for expanding ISS-style coorperation to the Moon and beyond, and may even make a truly global approach to space (such as Interspace) possible. This trend, plus the closeness and easy access of the Moon, may make a Mars focus — even in the 2020s — less attractive to the global public.

3. Astronaut safety will drive any deep space program strategy.
Current NASA boss Mike Griffin contends that safety requires a Mars program to go through ISS and the Moon in logical steps, much like the Apollo program carefully approached the Moon. The Planetary Society report deemphasizes lunar surface infrastructure in favor of near-term human exploration of near-Earth asteroids. Although not mentioned in their report, developing human space ops experience at near-Earth asteroids will be extremely valuable at Mars when establishing human bases on Phobos and Deimos. The Planetary Society Mars-focus strategy elegantly integrates the first human missions beyond the Earth-Moon system with planetary defense (from near-Earth asteroid impacts), and with specific preparations for future human operations in the Mars system.

4. For a multidecade, global space vision to be viable, it must include a realistic geopolitical and economic framework provided by long-term trends over the last 200 years. The Planetary Society roadmap asserts that the NASA VSE goal of a human return to the Moon by 2020 may “lead to multi-decade delays in expansion of human activity beyond the Earth-Moon system.” They are absolutely right as I pointed out previously, although it’s not fundamentally because of programmatic and funding conflicts. They are more on target here: “The national economic situation exacerbates NASA’s budget difficulties and makes it likely that the stated lunar exploration timetable cannot be met.” In fact, the national (and global) economic situation is a predictable consequence of technological, exploration, and military trends that have persisted over at least the last 200 years. Ignorance of them results in disappointments like the abrupt end of the spectacular Apollo program. However, in reality, they provide a dependable framework within which multi-decade programs of any kind (including space) can be structured so they flourish and enable human expansion into the cosmos.

Back in the U.S. fresh from the International Astronautical Congress in Glasgow, Scotland, Jerry Grey, a President Emeritus of the International Astronautical Federation himself and current Editor-at-Large of Aerospace America, suggests that what we need now is “a united, global effort for long-term human space exploration using the burgeoning capabilities of all nations to the best possible advantage of our home planet,” (Aerospace America, October, 2008).

This is certainly the right answer and I couldn’t agree more!

Based on the history of NASA and long wave timing, I suggested in 1996 and again in 2006, that around 2013 NASA was likely to morph into (or become part of) an international organization focused on human exploration of the Moon and planets. In fact as I’ve highlighted in this weblog, in 1992 Otto Steinbronn and I (both then with General Dynamics) proposed a specific model — called Interspace — for a truly global space agency. Interspace features both ESA-style and Intelsat-style management structures.

An international Moon Base is definitely in the cards. Click .

As evidence that we (globally) are ready for a “One World” approach to space, Grey cites the 10th anniversary of the “international marvel” known as the International Space Station. ISS partners and participants include the U.S., Russia, Canada, Japan, and the European Space Agency (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom).

According to Grey, NASA’s efforts to organize the International Lunar Network (ILN) is “another bellwether of global cooperation” in space. In July 2008, representatives of nine countries — including Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, United Kingdom, and the U.S. — held a meeting at NASA Ames Research Center and agreed to a cooperative approach for lunar exploration.

More evidence supporting a unified, international approach to space is provided by the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency founded in 1993 and headquartered in Beijing. APRSA promotes the peaceful use of space technology in the Asia-Pacific region especially for Earth observation, communication satellites, space environment utilization, and space education. In addition to China, a partial list of its participants includes Australia, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.

Grey laments the fact that “there is as yet no truly unified drive to pursue a multidecade (or better, multicentury) partnership” for human exploration of the solar system. Part of the challenge is that historically speaking, Maslow Windows – ebullient times of Great Explorations and Macro-Engineering Projects — have peaked only during brief intervals separated by 55 to 60 years.

Optimal use of global assets for the exploration of the Universe will require the “kind of leadership exhibited in 1975 by…Roy Gibson” when the European Space Agency was created. With Gibson-style leadership and if we can leverage such experiences as ESA, ISS, ILN, and APRSA, we’ll be able to develop a unified, global, multidecade, Interspace-style approach to space. This will enable us to: 1) optimally open up the planetary worlds to all humankind, 2) coordinate our defense of Earth against space impactors (e.g. asteroids), and 3) develop multidecade plans that are specifically designed to facilitate continuous human expansion into the cosmos even outside Maslow Windows.

India continues to position itself to be among the elites in the space world; See “India Accelerates into the Cosmos.” “This year we hope to send an Indian spacecraft, Chandrayaan, to the Moon,” announced Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on August 15, who called it “an important milestone” for India (Press Trust of India). If successful, India will join an elite club of countries (5 so far; China recently joined) who have orbited a spacecraft around the Moon.

The Indian Space Research Organization, based in Bangalore, plans a two year orbital mission for this robotic spacecraft and has integrated 11 scientific sensors into Chandrayaan-I, includng 5 from outside India (e.g. Europe, U.S.), to study lunar surface chemistry and possibly locate lunar polar ice deposits. Any subsurface lunar lakes will be of inestimable importance to future Moonbases, especially those planned for the Moon’s strategic polar areas that feature continuous sunlight. The follow-on mission will include a surface rover to collect Moon rocks and is under development with Russia.

These types of ebullient plans for deep space (at the Moon!) bespeak the approach of the spectacular 2015 Maslow WIndow, but for India, come at a time when the engine of its impressive economic growth (8+% annually) is slowing down. The Wall Street Journal (8/20/08) reports that after a decade of 40+% annual growth rates, India’s information-technology industry is decelerating rapidly partly due to reduced demand in the U.S. and its own increasng labor expenses.

In the current environment some have questioned the spending on India’s space program — a typical pre-Maslow Window concern; such questions usually recede during Maslow Windows due to societal ebullience as the population ascends Maslow’s heirarchy. Indian visionaries such as former Indian science minister M.G.K. Menon respond that the Moon program “will excite the younger generation” and incease national prestige and confidence. The Prime Minister wants to “…see a modern India, imbued by a scientific temper, where the benefits of modern knowledge flow to all sections of society.”

Indeed, international recognition of India’s high-tech prowess and its close relationship with the United States are evidenced by the pending nuclear deal where the U.S. will supply India with nuclear fuel and technology for civilian power purposes (WSJ, 8/20/08). Like France, which produces almost 90% of its electricity from nuclear plants, India wants a nuclear solution to its surging (9% annual) demand for electricity — resulting in 15+ hours per day of power cuts in some rural areas. The 45 nation Nuclear Suppliers Group is expected to approve the deal which is supported by Germany and Japan, and incidentally, also by both McCain and Obama.

Every other Friday the State of the Wave summarizes specific progress toward the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window and movement toward real, near-term space colonization. The focus is on events and trends from around the world of long-range significance, especially in the context of the 10 Wave Guides.

It’s easy this week, although not very pleasant, to summarize the Wave: the Russian invasion of Georgia has thrown the 2010+ future of the American space program into real uncertainty. (See Russian Invasion and the Shuttle 5-Yr Gap)

Using Russian systems as an add-on launch capability was one thing, but becoming dependent on the Russian Soyuz for American access to the Space Station is proving to be a deeply flawed strategy. Will there be a U.S. commercial alternative that can substitute for the Shuttle after 2010?

Because the Russia/Georgia crisis has implications far beyond the space program, and the U.S. feels a need to punish Russia, the prospects for U.S. human spaceflight after 2010 appear dim, even if Georgia does join NATO in the near future.

As we approach a time of ebullient global space activity, many space-related groups are very energetic. For example, a space elevator conference was recently held at Microsoft in Washington. Their hopes center on major technology advances in power beaming and ultra-strong materials, but their technology literally offers the relatively near-term promise of a frontier society in space. Likewise India announced recently that they have decided to launch their own spacecraft to the Moon, in addition to participating in the multinational agreement signed recently with the U.S. as part of the International Lunar Network.

Based on long-term trends over the last 200 years, the major economic boom expected to usher in the next Maslow Window is right on schedule for a 2013-15 take-off. However, short-term, the Wall Street Journal (8/15/08) highlights a 4-year unemployment peak in July of 5.7%, an uptick in U.S. inflation (July’s 17 year high of 5.6 % from the year before), plus sluggish GDP trends in Europe. But China, India, and other developing economies continue to expand strongly, and the dollar’s increasing strength could cool inflation somewhat.

To provide historical perspective, it’s interesting to identify analogs of major recessions that gave way to the major economic booms that drove previous Maslow Windows. One such example is the Panic of 1837. The Panic began 20 years before its 56 year cycle energy peak (in 1857) while our current economic “recession” began in late 2007, about 18 years before our peak (coming in 2025). Thus its wave timing (very similar to now) and its severity (considerably worse than now) make it very relevant to our future.

The Panic featured closure of 40% of all U.S. banks, record high unemployment, and economic turmoil until 1843; it is considered second only to the Great Depression of the 1930s. Nevertheless, the mid-19th Century Maslow Window (1847-57), powered by a major economic boom, opened right on schedule and featured ebullient behavior like Stanley’s African search for Dr. Livingstone engaged in his Great Exploration (”Dr. Livingstone I presume?”) and the California Gold Rush (1848-55). This Maslow Window also featured the “technological jewel” of the 19th Century — the Suez Canal — plus several other secondary MEPs, and tragically, the worst war in U.S. history: the Civil War. More on this Panic soon.

The current picture — sadly including Russian misbehavior and flickering of a renewed Cold War — is very consistent with our expectations 5 to 7 years out from our next Maslow Window.

Every other Friday the State of the Wave summarizes specific progress toward the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window and movement toward real, near-term space colonization. The focus is on events and trends from around the world of long-range significance, especially in the context of the 10 Wave Guides.

Space-related highlights from the last 2+ weeks feature dynamic international activity, growing public interest in space-related topics, and both the economy and NASA limping along as we approach the 2013-2015 Maslow Window. Both are expected to fully recover soon.

For example, China announced plans to make it’s space technology industry world-class by 2015. Doubling the number of space technology centers around the country will beef up its commercial satellite and launch businesses and support its growing manned space program.

The importance of the recent multinational lunar exploration agreement (International Lunar Network; ILN) between the U.S. and 8 other countries (India, Japan, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, South Korea) cannot be overstated. Clearly we’re forming the international teams that NASA will share unmanned and probably manned exploration of the Moon with. With proper maintenance the ISS could probably continue ops for decades, and as of last month, the International Partners are now openly contemplating ISS operations beyond 2015. Although China is not on either team (ILN or ISS), that could change further downstream.

Exciting rumors are circulating and building a lot of suspense about a new discovery by the Phoenix Mars Lander relating to the habitability of Mars. That announcement may come tomorrow. Equally exciting for NASA but also disturbing, Apollo Moonwalker Ed Mitchell publicly reiterated his “inside” information that UFOs are real and the U.S. government has been aware of space aliens for several decades. He appeared recently on Larry King Live. Both examples suggest public interest in space-related topics continues to grow as we approach the next Maslow Window.

The economic triple threat — inflation, slow growth, troubled credit markets — continues to plague the financial system, although several Washington politicians have talked recently about ways to increase oil supplies. Long term, we think the odds are very good for a return to a strong global economic boom of the type that was interrupted in summer, 2007. More on that soon. Despite the above accomplishments, NASA is pictured by some as “limping along” because it is not yet “tied to an overriding national priority.”

No surprise. This is what we’d expect for a NASA still 5 - 7 years from its next Maslow Window.

On July 29, NASA announced a new, groundbreaking multinational agreement with 8 countries — India, Japan, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and South Korea — to cooperatively explore the Moon using the International Lunar Network (ILN).

ILN will feature 6 - 8 fixed or mobile landers on the Moon with the first being launched in 2013 or 2014, about the time that the next Maslow Window starts to slide open. This “international flotilla” of unmanned landers and rovers will allow all 8 countries plus NASA to be intimately involved in mission planning, operations, and science, as well as in sharing costs.

According to James Green, director of NASA’s planetary science division, “Many of these countries are quite interested in the manned program. They want to provide astronauts to be the first Canadian or the first Italian or the first French man or French woman on the moon.”

As I’ve indicated recently (”NASA’s Challenging Future“) this is exactly the type of thing NASA needs to be doing now to improve the odds that we’ll enter the 2015 Maslow Window in an international cooperative mode, instead of in something reminiscent of the Cold War and Sputnik. Ideally ILN will eventually evolve into a truly global space agency — that includes all the major space powers — of much broader scope.

The Chinese Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. (CASTC) recently announced that, “China aims to attain the world level in space technology development by building a comprehensive aerospace industry by 2015,” (Beijing on 7/25). Both the date and the goal are consistent with our expectations for China (See “10 Reasons China is Good for Space“) at 21stCenturyWaves.com.

Founded in 1999, the state-owned company intends to expand from its current 4 science and technology centers (Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi and Sichuan) by adding 4 new bases in Tianjin, Inner Mongolia and Hainan. “The new format will benefit the local economy and society, especially when it becomes part of the strategic development of north China’s Bohai region, south China’s Pearl River Delta, and the country’s western area,” said Ma Xingrui, a CASTC official.

By 2015 — the opening of the next Maslow Window — CASTC’s business plan includes capturing 10% of the world commercial satellite market and 15% of the world commercial launch market. The expansion’s intent is to capitalize on the 50 successful launches of its Long March series and to support its growing manned space program. China’s third manned launch is planned for October.

The next race to space appears to be right on schedule.

The world’s largest democracy has a booming economy and major space expertise, and plans to be a world-class player in Earth-Moon space. Along with Brazil (See “Surging Brazil is a Global Space Power”), India is an impressive example of a global space power that wants to accelerate its expansion into space.

Despite increasing global economic turmoil, Wall Street Journal reports (5/31/08) that India’s economy surged 8.8% in the first three months of 2008 from a year earlier. Most of the growth was in construction and services industries, although there are potential challenges on the horizon. For example, transportation infrastructure is “at the brink of collapse”.

I spoke on lunar and Mars resources at the 1988 International Astronautical Federation meeting in Bangalore and was impressed by the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) facilities and scientific staff. India launched its first satellite in 1975. Since the 1980s, India has developed and used their INSAT (communications, weather) and IRS (resource monitoring) satellites. Their two launch systems are the PSLV (1200 kg to polar orbits) since 1997, and the GSLV (2000 kg to GEO, includes a cryogenic upper stage) since 2001.

PSLV-C9 launched from ISRO Launch Center, 100 km north of Chennai.

In 2006, the ISRO briefed 80 Indian scientists on a 4 year study of a possible Indian manned space mission including development of an Orbital Vehicle that would be launched by GSLV. Milestones would include: first manned flight in 2014, and the first Indian on the Moon between 2020 - 2025. The ISRO continues “serious consideration” of a manned Indian space program.

This impressive, ebullient activity is very consistent with an international Sputnik-like event near 2013 and the opening of the next Maslow Window shortly thereafter.

The intersection of projected trajectories for the world’s current and future space powers suggests there will be a major international event just prior to the opening of the next Maslow Window (near 2015). The Nominal Model timelines (see Forecasts page) suggest this will occur near 2013 (Sputnik year 1957 + 56) and will have an impact on the U.S. and world comparable to Sputnik’s launch in 1957.

One likely model is that an international consortium of space powers (ICSP) – possibly led by China – will announce their comprehensive plan for the large-scale colonization and utilization of space, probably including the Moon and possibly Mars. In addition to lunar settlements and orbiting solar power stations, their agenda might include plans for LEO and lunar hotels. Moon hotels are hardly a new idea; the Shimizu Corporation (Tokyo) had impressive designs over 20 years ago when we had meetings with them in connection with a NASA rfp at General Dynamics space headquarters in San Diego. Interestingly, despite their sophisticated concepts, Shimizu did not feature their space projects on their website before and I am unable to find any mention of them now.

Based on the current interest levels and cooperation capabilities of many countries, this ICSP scenario seems very reasonable. For example, both Japan and the U.S. have announced plans to send people back to the Moon within 12 years, and China (possibly in cooperation with Russia) wants to establish a lunar base shortly thereafter. India also has lunar ambitions. And Russia, through its American broker Space Adventures, already offers private citizens their own personal trip around the Moon (for a hefty fee). Russia also claims to be ahead in a “race to Mars” that they expect to win by 2025.

Several countries recently signed the “Global Exploration Strategy” (GES), including Australia, Canada, China, ESA, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Ukraine, the U.K., and the U.S.. This strategy focuses on why we are returning to the Moon and what we envision doing there, with special emphasis on a comprehensive set of reasons for robotic and human exploration of the Moon. The GES is clearly only the beginning of a new style of international cooperation in space. Indeed, in his recent column in Aerospace America, Editor-at-Large Jerry Grey concludes that, “…despite the current ISS (International Space Station) concerns, there is no doubt that the internationalization of space is enjoying a new period of ascendancy.”(February, 2008).

So in a world plagued by international conflict, economic uncertainty, and natural disasters, major space programs featuring international cooperation are increasingly popular. This is what we would expect during a period of early ebullience as we approach the 2015 Maslow Window. Upcoming Wave Guide 5 posts will comment on events and trends about space powers from around the world and measure their progress relative to the forecasts of 21stCenturyWaves.com.