Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Nov 21 2013

Bruce Returns to The Space Show on December 6

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell under Uncategorized

It’s a pleasure to announce that I’m returning again to The Space Show (www.thespaceshow.com) global internet live radio program, on Friday, December 6, 2013, from 9:30 am – 11 am Pacific time.

My most recent appearance on The Space Show was last March and you can listen to it by clicking http://www.thespaceshow.com/detail.asp?q=1983

Thanks to Dr. David Livingston, the show’s host, for inviting me. You can learn about him by visiting his personal website, www.davidlivingston.com.

We’ll explore the state-of-the-wave in U.S. and international space today — Surprisingly, all indicators suggest that the ignition of a new, international Apollo-level Space Age is just around the corner.

We’re currently waiting for only one final step on the new Space Age “checklist” to occur before we can enter into another transformative, 1960s-style Golden Age of human expansion.

Plus, we’ll do a year-end evaluation of my annual look at space-related trends; Click: 10 Space Trends for 2013 — Featuring the Approach of the New International Space Age..

And who can resist examining current prospects for near-term human exploration of the Red Planet, including Dennis Tito’s 2018 manned Mars flyby, Mars One, and possible U.S.-Russia joint manned Mars expeditions.

See you on December 6!

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Sep 13 2012

Bruce Returns to “The Space Show” this Sunday

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell under Uncategorized

It’s a pleasure to announce that I’m returning for my 4th visit to The Space Show (www.thespaceshow.com) global internet live radio program, this Sunday, September 16, 2012, from Noon – 1:30 pm Pacific time.

You can listen to my January, 2012 appearance on The Space Show by clicking HERE

Thanks to Dr. David Livingston, the show’s host, for inviting me. You can learn about him by visiting his personal website, www.davidlivingston.com.

What does the experience of the 1960s Cuban Missile Crisis and its relation to the Apollo Moon program teach us about growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their possible connections to a new, Apollo-level international Space Age expected by mid-decade?
Click
Click

We’ll explore our recent discovery that, over the agency’s history, NASA space programs are “fractal,” meaning they are “self-similar” and thus the same basic forces that drove small to mid-size NASA space programs also applied to the 1960s Apollo Moon program. This counterintuitive result has huge implications for what we can expect in our unprecedented, near-term space future.

Second, this discovery of the fractal nature of NASA space programs is similar to that of financial systems that sometimes crash, earthquakes that can produce destructive swarms, and even major wars, all of which appear to be due to the formation of transformative “critical states” when even a small trigger can produce a large change in the whole international system.

And finally, we’ll look at the parallels between the geopolitical tensions of the “critical state” during the 1950s and 60s and compare them to today. In 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis almost launched a nuclear war, but instead accelerated the intense international competition of the Race to the Moon. As we move into the first international “critical state” of the 21st Century, we’ll consider rising Middle East tensions and how they may relate to the new Apollo-level international Space Age expected by mid-decade.

See you Sunday!

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Apr 02 2011

Readers’ Favorite Posts — March, 2011

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell under Uncategorized

This is an updated end-of-March list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the times indicated below. The lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

Timeframes of the readers’ lists below are: I) Favorites during March, and II) Favorites during the Last 7 days.

To see readers’ favorite posts for each previous month, click HERE.

The lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each category in order of reader preference.
All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

Updated 4/1/2011

I. MARCH — Readers’ Favorites

1) Standard Chartered Bank’s “New Super-Cycle” Points to the New Apollo-Style Space Age — 3/5/11
2) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
3) Phobos: The Key to the Cosmos? Just Ask Russia and China! — 3/27/10
4) The Allure of Moving to Mars Points to the New Space Age — 10/30/10
5) The Cold War-style Arms Race in Asia and the New Space Age — 2/12/11

II. THE LAST 7 DAYS — Readers’ Favorites

1) The Allure of Moving to Mars Points to the New Space Age — 10/30/10
2) Phobos: The Key to the Cosmos? Just Ask Russia and China! — 3/27/10
3) The Cold War-Style Arms Race in Asia and the New Space Age — 2/12/11
4) Kepler, Watson, and Gott Point to the Rare Earth Hypothesis — 3/20/11
5) Facebook-Aided Arab Uprisings & Their Historical Parallels Signal a Transformative Future — 3/28/11

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Oct 07 2008

Public Speaking

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell under Uncategorized

Bruce is Available for Public Speaking—For Bruce’s Bio Click HERE.

I’m pleased to say that I get a significant number of requests to do public speaking on future- and space-related topics and I do as many as possible.

I love doing it, but have to balance public speaking with my other professional and personal activities. I am usually able to do a few engagements per month depending on how far they are from Southern California.

Over the years I’ve done hundreds of public talks and presentations of virtually every type: from after dinner keynotes, to large groups (500+), to small seminars, etc.
My talks have been to almost every type of group imaginable including universities, clubs, corporations, schools, professional organizations, government agencies, churches, etc., across the U.S. and internationally.

I’ve enjoyed sharing realistic visions of our future with them all!

Speaking Topics Focus on 3 Themes

I enjoy giving talks on the human future similar to the three listed below. Actually the talks below have major interfaces and differ mostly in their emphasis; i.e., the emphasis in I is on space colonization, in II it’s a broad, strategic look at the future, and in III it’s on worldviews.

These talks are unique in their approach — all are based on macroeconomic and historical trends over the last 200 years. This provides an unusually powerful perspective.

We always customize the topic mix and level to your group.

I. The Human Future in Space
Prospects for near-term, international exploration and colonization of the Moon and Mars, including their importance for science, technology, peace, and prosperity.

II. 21st Century Waves: Scientific Forecasts for the Next 20 Years
Long-term trends – over the last 200 years – point to specific forecasts of technology, economic, exploration, and military watersheds as a framework for strategic thinking, both professional and personal.

III. The Spiritual Impact of Space Exploration
How traditional concepts of consciousness, human origins and destiny, and God, are being impacted by human expansion into the Cosmos.

Speaking Arrangements

If your group is outside Southern California, I may need travel expenses. Also, my fee is flexible depending on the type of group. Please email me if you have any questions.
If you’d like to arrange a speaking engagement, please contact me at:
Bruce@21stCenturyWaves.com

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Aug 09 2008

Readers' Fav Posts — Monthly

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell under Uncategorized

This is a monthly list of our readers’ favorite posts, based on the number of times each post was visited during the months indicated below. For updated lists of readers’ favorite posts for the last 7 days and for all-time, please click HERE.

Starting in October, 2008, the lists below include both Daily Wavelet posts and State of the Wave posts.

All lists below give only the top 5 favorites in each month in order of reader preference. All posts below are clickable and their publishing dates are given.

SEPTEMBER, 2009 — Readers’ Favorites

1) How President Obama is Creating the New Space Age — 9/24/09
2) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
3) State of the Wave – Obama is Not LBJ; New Space Age Will Bloom — 8/29/09
4) Was the 1960s Apollo Moon Program an Anomaly? — 2/03/09
5) Kepler, Carl Sagan, and the Guzman Prize — Our Century-Long Search for Space Aliens — 8/23/09

AUGUST, 2009 — Readers’ Favorites

1) Was the 1960s Apollo Moon Program an Anomaly? — 2/03/09
2) South Korea — Preparing for the New Global Space Race — 8/03/09
3) State of the Wave – Obama is Not LBJ; New Space Age Will Bloom — 8/29/09
4) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Window Forecasts — 10/20/08
5) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09

JULY, 2009 — Readers’ Favorites

1) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Window Forecasts — 10/20/08
2) Tom Wolfe’s “Giant Leap to Nowhere” — 7/20/09
3) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
4) Buzz Aldrin — A Man for All Maslow Windows! — 7/5/09
5) 10 Spiritual Connections of the Human Exploration of Space — 5/31/09

JUNE, 2009 — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
2) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Window Forecasts — 10/20/08
3) Mercury — An Exciting World Awaiting Human Utilization — 5/24/09
4) Nereus, Mohole, Apollo and the New Race to Space — 6/12/09
5) 10 Spiritual Connections of the Human Exploration of Space — 5/31/09

MAY, 2009 — Readers’ Favorites

1) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Window Forecasts — 10/20/08
2) 10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space — 5/18/09
3) Without Adventure Civilization is in Full Decay — 12/8/08
4) How Close Are We to Space Colonization — 2/1/09
5) Getting Star Trek Right! — 5/11/09

APRIL, 2009 — Readers’ Favorites

1) World Future Society Forecasts for the Next Maslow Window — 3/31/09
2) Space Daily, Gila Bend, and the Next Space Age — 4/10/09
3) Why Wasn’t There a Great Depression and a World War Between 1985 and 2001? — 4/21/09
4) How Close Are We to Space Colonization — 2/1/09
5) The Shocking Truth About the Father of the Space Station — 3/28/09

MARCH, 2009 — Readers’ Favorites

1) State of the Wave — 10 Space Trends for 2009 — 1/17/09
2) How Close Are We to Space Colonization — 2/1/09
3) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Wave Forecasts — 10/20/08
4) India and NASA Search For the Lost Lunar Lakes — 3/7/09
5) North Korea’s New Space Program? — 2/8/09

FEBRUARY, 2009 — Readers’ Favorites

1) State of the Wave — 10 Space Trends for 2009 — 1/17/09
2) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Wave Forecasts — 10/20/08
3) A Vision for the Next 100 Years — Courtesy of George Friedman — 1/10/09
4) Are Great Explorations Driven by Keynesian “Animal Spirits” on Steroids? — 2/15/09
5) Long Waves and the Future of Human Spaceflight — 1/24/09

JANUARY, 2009 — Readers’ Favorites

1) Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Wave Forecasts — 10/20/08
2) State of the Wave — 10 Space Trends for 2009 — 1/17/09
3) Marcel Vs. Fermi — Toward A Possible Convergence — 1/07/09
4) A Vision for the Next 100 Years — Courtesy of George Friedman — 1/10/09
5) Long Waves and the Future of Human Spaceflight — 1/24/09

DECEMBER, 2008 — Readers’ Favorites

1) State of the Wave, Politics Focus — Sunday, 11/9/08 — 11/10/08
2) 10 Lessons Peary & Amundsen Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 11/29/08
3) Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, Friday 9/12/08 — 9/14/08
4) 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08
5) China and Russia Take the Smart Road to Mars! — 12/4/08

NOVEMBER, 2008 — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08
2) Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, Friday 9/12/08 — 9/14/08
3) “A United, Global Effort for Long-Term Human Space Exploration?” — Why Not? — 11/08/08
4) State of the Wave, Geopolitical & Economic Focus — Monday 10/27/08 — 10/28/08
5) The New Cuban Space Center and Vladimir Bonaparte — 10/8/08

OCTOBER, 2008 — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08
2) Major Wars Threaten Future Space Initiatives — 7/12/08
3) Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space — State of the Wave, Friday 9/12/08 — 9/14/08
4) The New Cuban Space Center and Vladimir Bonaparte — 10/8/08
5) Taikonaut to Take a Walk — 6/13/08

SEPTEMBER, 2008 — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08
2) NASA’s Challenging Future..! — 8/1/08
3) Gallup Polls Support Maslow Window Forecasts — 6/20/08
4) How Great Explorations Really Work — 7/10/08
5) Taikonaut to Take a Walk — 6/13/08

AUGUST, 2008 — Readers’ Favorites

1) How Great Explorations Really Work — 7/10/08
2) NASA’s Challenging Future..! — 8/1/08
3) 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08
4) Major Wars Threaten Space Initiatives — 7/12/08
5) 10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space — 8/17/08

JULY, 2008 — Readers’ Favorites

1) 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space — 6/22/08
2) How Great Explorations Really Work — 7/10/08
3) Japan’s New Space Policy and Expanding International Cooperation — 7/4/08
4) Mars vs. the Moon: A Different Angle — 6/28/08
5) Comments on China and Comets — 7/7/08

JUNE, 2008 — Readers’ Favorites

1) The Way Space Really Works — 6/2/08
2) The Way MEPs Really Work — 6/16/08
3) McCain and the Republican Panic — 6/6/08
4) Is Obama a Space Guy? — 6/5/08
5) It’s NOT More Trouble Than It’s Worth…Even in Zero-G — 6/10/08

May, 2008 — Readers’ Favorites
Please Note: Only a Partial month; the first posts published on 5/11/08.

1) Is Obama the Next ONE? — 5/15/08
2) Is the Navy Sinking the U.S. Space Program? — 5/15/08
3) Surging Brazil is a Growing Space Power! — 5/20/08
4) Google Recruits Mars Pioneers! — 5/11/08
5) I like IKE…One More Time! — 5/11/08

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May 25 2008

Dr. Bruce Cordell's Bio…

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell under Uncategorized

Bruce Cordell is an educator and consultant who writes and speaks often on space exploration and colonization. He has degrees from UCLA (M.S.) and the University of Arizona (Ph.D.) in planetary and space physics, and was a Weizmann postdoctoral fellow at Caltech.

After serving as a physics professor at the California State University, Dr. Cordell flourished as a corporate space scientist and program manager for several years with General Dynamics, Space Systems in San Diego. During this time he worked closely with NASA on R&D contracts involving lunar bases and human missions to Mars, space transportation, and space resources.

General Dynamics awarded Dr. Cordell two Extraordinary Achievement Awards: the first for, “Acquisition of the Mars/Lunar Advanced Research Study contracts from NASA,” and the second for, “…promoting a favorable General Dynamics image in the San Diego area.”

At General Dynamics in San Diego with Apollo 12 astronaut Alan Bean (in center), Bruce (2nd from right), and V.P. Bill Rector (2nd from left) in 1986; Click bean.jpg.

Bruce organized and managed a diverse 10-member international team in support of General Dynamics’ advanced space studies efforts. It included 3 foreign firms (from Japan, Italy, Canada), 4 U.S. companies, 3 universities, and several consultants.

Ever since he was 7 years old, while growing up on the shores of Lake Michigan, Dr. Cordell has been fascinated by the idea of humans going to Mars. In 1991, he was named one of the “100 Stars of Space”, by Ad Astra, The Magazine of the National Space Society (Washington, D.C.). He was described by Ad Astra as one of the top, “…imaginers of the future… freethinkers of the space program…”

In the 1970s while using spacecraft data, Bruce provided some of the first evidence that water was common on Mars. In 1982, he proposed a new (still viable) mechanism for climate change on Mars based on ion-induced nucleation processes and physical analogies with magnetic polarity reversals on Earth. In 1985, based on geological and geophysical data, Bruce published the first systematic study of the potential for ore bodies on Mars and concluded it resembled parts of east and south Africa.

In the mid-1980s, Dr. Cordell developed a ground-breaking concept for interplanetary commerce featuring retrieval of water from the moons of Mars for transportation and industrial uses in the Earth-Moon system. He led the first study – supported by grants from NASA and the General Dynamics Corporation – showing its economic advantages and technical feasibility.

In 1989 Dr. Cordell was invited to the Joint Propulsion Conference in Monterey, CA to summarize the state-of-the-art of manned Mars missions. He published a 20,000 word review of the strategies, technologies, concepts, and rationales for human missions to Mars.

Bruce was an invited speaker at Space Summit 1991 – An International Conference on Space Programs, held at the Von Braun Civic Center in Huntsville, AL. He described his new concept for a world space agency (“Interspace”) in which its core members – Russia, Europe, Japan, U.S. – share power equally and support participation from any nation.

Bruce speaking at Space Summit 1991 in Huntsville with conference organizer David Christensen (center) and ESA’s Ian Pryke; Click bclunch.jpg:

In 1996, Dr. Cordell published “Forecasting the Next Major Thrust into Space” (in Space Policy), in which he introduced his new theory, based on patterns in long-term trends in the economy and technology over the last 200 years, that logically explained our romance with President Kennedy’s space program in the 1960s and our boredom with it in the 1970s. And more importantly, based on macroeconomic and macrohistorical trends, he was able to forecast that the decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog of the 1960’s. For example, it should culminate in humans on Mars and lunar tourists. In 2006, these ideas were expanded in “21st Century Waves: Forecasting Technology Booms and Human Expansion into the Cosmos” that appeared in Futures Research Quarterly. (See The Articles)

Dr. Cordell has appeared on television news and entertainment programs a total of nearly 100 times (mostly in Southern California) describing space exploration and astrophysics events in the news. For example, in 1994 Dr. Cordell was featured in the PBS television series “FutureQuest”. He commented about Mars bases, space tourism, and interstellar travel along with Apollo astronaut Edgar Mitchell, comedian Dennis Miller, former JPL director Bruce Murray, and others. Actor Jeff Goldblum was the host.

A few years earlier, Bruce was featured in a 2-hour call-in television show available to middle and high school students across the United States which originated from the KPBS-TV studios at San Diego State University. Also featured were Apollo astronaut Wally Schirra (who frequently appeared with Walter Cronkite on CBS space news programs in the 1960s) and Alan Lovelace, former Deputy Administrator of NASA.

Bruce has given over 150 public talks on space to groups of all types across the United States and in Europe and India. His presentations have stimulated a wide range of audiences including corporations (e.g., Shimizu, United Technologies, Alitalia, Halliburton), colleges (e.g., UC San Diego, University of Houston, Caltech, International Space University), government agencies (e.g., U.S. Air Force, NASA, Congressional staffs) and clubs and museums (e.g., Del Mar Rotary, Griffith Observatory, MIT Alumni Club). His memberships include the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, World Future Society, British Interplanetary Society, and Society for College and University Planning.

When he’s not writing or speaking about the future, Dr. Cordell enjoys playing tennis, visiting Maui, and exploring bookstores. He lives in Southern California.
To request Bruce to speak to your group, click HERE.

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May 20 2008

Welcome!

On May 14, 1804 Lewis and Clark started their legendary exploration of the Great Northwest! We chose the 204th anniversary of their departure for the Official Launch of this Weblog on the prospects for Space Colonization!

WELCOME to Everyone !!!

Lewis and Clark in 1804 was the first of the 4 great human exploration events of the last 200 years. In fact, many of the economic and political forces which drove their mission are similar to those that propelled the Apollo Moon program in the 1960s.

Our strategic approach in this blog is different:
We use patterns in long-term trends in the economy, technology, and society that have repeated for the last 200 years to give us insight into the next 20!

Probably the best place to start is The Concept page to discover how illuminating this approach is.

Indeed, the lesson of the last 200 years is that the future of the next 20 years is so bright, you’ll probably need shades! Major Apollo-style technology and space programs will soon announce the opening of the next international race to space. That’s the highly likely good news. It’s also possible that we could miss this opportunity for human expansion into the cosmos. If we do, the last 200 years indicate our next shot will be near the end of this century.

Our blog philosphy is to tell you what the last 200 years suggest will happen, not necessarily what we personally want to occur. And although we do talk politics, we don’t officially endorse candidates because our fundamental interest is in evaluating our space colonization forecasts against events and trends from the real world. This reality-based blog about the near-term future in space will tell a generally positive story, simply because that’s what the last 200 years strongly suggest.

This blog is for your enjoyment and use. Please take a tour. Tell us when we get it wrong, and it’s OK to compliment us too! If we miss important articles, news, or points of view, email them to us!

It’s time for your own personal launch into 21stCenturyWaves.com!
See you at The Concept page!

“Live Long and Prosper!”

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May 04 2008

Perspectives

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell under Uncategorized

Brief 21stCenturyWaves Perspectives are ideal if you’re new to this Blog!

The Perspectives do the following:
1) Explain why each Wave Guide is important for understanding our progress toward space colonization, and for evaluating our forecasts,
and
2) Provide background information and set the stage for future posts in each Wave Guide arena.

For Brief Perspectives…Click HERE.

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Apr 20 2008

Space Planners Can Learn from Desert Storm, 1991, Space News

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell under Uncategorized

space1.pdf

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Apr 20 2008

Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space…AIAA, 2008

Accepted for
AIAA SPACE 2008 Conference and Exposition, 9-11 Sep
San Diego, California

FORECASTING THE NEXT 20 YEARS IN SPACE: The New Race to Space
Bruce M. Cordell , Ann G. Hovey , and Kenneth A. Meehan

A variety of long-term indicators – economic, social, technological, and political – strongly suggest that a new international space race will take shape during the next 5 – 10 years. This unprecedented thrust into space is expected to significantly exceed the scale and scope of the 1960’s Apollo Moon program and will culminate by 2025 in a variety of major activities such as humans on Mars, tourists on the Moon, and solar power satellites in LEO. This forecast model has major implications for space program planning and technology development, international cooperation, NASA public relations, as well as education (Meehan, 2006) and business (Hovey, 2003) planning.
Cordell (1996) suggested that repetitive patterns in the economy, technology, and exploration over the last 200 years may have predictive power for the 21st Century. In particular, a roughly 56-year cycle was identified, where macro-engineering projects (e.g., Panama Canal), significant human explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark), and major conflicts (e.g., Civil War) tended to cluster together, near economic booms. The bottom-line forecast was that the decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog of the 1960s, bringing a global focus on achievement in space exploration and a Camelot-like zeitgeist.
The case for this long-term approach to 21st Century space forecasting was strengthened and expanded in Cordell (2006). For example, the concept of a “Maslow Window” was developed, in which each successive economic boom (typically peaking every 56 years) does two things: it fuels the social affluence required to spur large-scale technology and engineering activities, and, more importantly, it creates widespread ebullience by briefly elevating society to the highest levels in Maslow’s hierarchy (Maslow, 1970). This ebullience creates the atmosphere of social well-being and confidence vital to undertake and support large, complex, risky, expensive, multi-year programs and explorations. The confluence of societal affluence and ebullience is seen infrequently in modern times, when peaks in economic activity (following a 56 year cycle) triggered the four great explorations (Lewis and Clark, Dr. Livingstone in Africa, the Polar Expeditions, Apollo Moon) of the last 200 years.
In this paper we test this model by focusing on data to examine whether conditions are developing to support projections for the next Maslow Window (2015 – 2025), thus setting the stage for the next great wave of exploration and human achievement. Our approach is to analyze current trends and events for coincidence with the “nominal” timeline (to 2030) presented in Cordell (2006). In particular, we highlight the following: 1) societal “ebullience” as the one necessary and sufficient condition for great explorations, especially the coming one, 2) trends in civic behavior, 3) the Strauss and Howe (1991) concept of generations and its connection with long waves in the economy (e.g., Devezas, Ed., 2006) and today’s trends, and 4) international events.
In July, 2007 Fortune magazine termed the current worldwide expansion “the greatest economic boom ever”. Continued rapid growth, assuming consistent government policies, is projected by the Congressional Budget Office to 2011. This is precisely the trend one would expect as we approach the economic boom presaging the next Maslow Window. For example, based on economic data corresponding to the previous four Maslow Windows, projected GDP for 2025 should reach between two and three times its current value.
Evidence for the approach to Maslow Window-style ebullience is also provided by travel industry statistics that indicate skyrocketing growth of adventure-type travel and extreme sports (e.g., high altitude mountaineering). Indeed, in 2003 the Wall Street Journal estimated the global market for adventure travel to be $ 245 billion. The beginning of the suborbital space tourist industry is another key step in this direction.
As society ascends the Maslow hierarchy it eventually aspires to fulfill what Maslow called “esteem needs,” reflecting a desire for respect from others and for others, and for self-esteem. Data relevant to these needs has been tracked by The National Conference on Citizenship. Their Civic Health Index (CHI) monitors 40 indicators across nine categories, including connections to civic and religious groups, trust in other people, trends in philanthropy and volunteer work, and awareness of current and world events.
Since 1975, subsequent to the close of the Apollo Maslow Window, the CHI has registered steep declines of 7%, a trend viewed as a “substantial and troubling pattern.” However, their data may indicate a turning point, demonstrating almost a 3 point recovery in the CHI since 1999, with a renewed ascent up the Maslow hierarchy. This is the trend we would expect as increasing affluence begins to elevate society back to the esteem and (eventually) the “cognitive” need levels that are characteristic of past Maslow Windows.
Additional evidence favoring these projections comes from the well-documented “generations” concept of Strauss and Howe (1991). Recently, the changing characteristics of successive generations have been correlated with long economic waves (about 56 years). As we approach the next Maslow Window in 2015, the Millennial generation will be coming of age. As “Civics” they will be especially supportive of Maslow Window space activities; two previous “Civics” presidents were John F. Kennedy (Apollo) and Ronald Reagan (Space Station).
Growing international interest in space as well as in non-space macro-engineering projects are reliable indicators of the impending Maslow Window opening in 2015. A prime example of such an undertaking typical of Maslow Windows is the proposed $5B+ Panama Canal expansion project, expected to near completion by 2015. The corresponding wave of ebullience that normally heralds such an achievement was recently reflected in the national referendum in 2006 where Panamanians approved the risky project by 76.8% of votes.
In a world plagued by international conflict, economic uncertainty, and natural disasters, major space programs are increasingly popular. Both Japan and the U.S. have announced plans to send people to the Moon within 12 years. China also wants to establish a Moon base but is worried about costs; this is a common pre-Maslow Window concern. Russia claims to be ahead in a “race to Mars” that they expect to win by 2025. The next race to space appears about to begin, right on schedule.

Cordell, B. (1996) “Forecasting the next major thrust into space” Space Policy 12, 45.
Cordell, B. (2006) “21st Century waves — Forecasting technology booms and human expansion into the cosmos” Futures Research Quarterly 22, No. 3, Fall.
Devezas, T., Ed. (2006) Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security, NATO Science Series, ISO Press, Amsterdam.
Hovey, A. (2003) “Forecasting New Industries Based on Technology Trends Today” Presentation for Dept. of Labor National Emergency Grant.
Maslow, A. (1970) Motivation and Personality, Harper, New York.
Meehan, K. (2006) “Fullerton College Environmental Scan”, http://research.fullcoll.edu/
Strauss, W. & Howe, N, (1991) Generations, Quill, New York.

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