Bruce Cordell, Ph.D.
Editor (Space Colonization, Strategic Planning, General)
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Bruce was a program manager and space scientist for several years with General Dynamics, Space Systems in San Diego, CA where he worked closely with NASA on lunar bases and human missions to Mars, space transportation, and space resources. Currently an educator and a consultant in Southern California, Bruce likes Star Trek, tennis, and chocolate fudge ice cream at Baskin Robbins. He helped Rachel create this website. For more about Bruce, Click HERE. To request Bruce to speak to your group, click HERE.

Rachel Nishimura
Managing Editor (Pop Culture, General)
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Rachel is co-founder of 21stCenturyWaves.com. She is immersed in pop culture and has a compelling interest in international space programs. Having grown up in Anaheim, CA not far from the “Happiest Place on Earth” (Disneyland), she has been permeated since birth by visions of the future, explorationist history, and fun fantasies. She currently attends the University of Vermont and enjoys tart yogurt flavors, the Moody Blues on vinyl, and Futurama.

Carol Lane
Contributing Editor (Space, Politics)
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Carol’s interest in space goes back to the Apollo program and watching the moon landings. Her desire to follow a career in space, and science and technology policy coalesced during her college years during her coursework in science, technology and public policy. In the early part of her career she was involved in technology forecasting and technology assessments primarily dealing with energy policy and the future of scientific and technical information. Carol worked for the US Senate Science, Technology and Space Subcommittee, leading legislation and policy initiatives on space, remote sensing commercialization, climate issues and science education. Since the mid 1980s, he has also worked for aerospace companies doing business development, strategic planning and government relations. During her career she has had to opportunity to work on many different space programs including launch vehicles, the space station program, remote sensing satellite programs and science satellite programs.

Ann Hovey, M.S.
Contributing Editor (Economics, International Business)
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Ann’s roots and interest in the space program started as a young child in the Cape Canaveral, FL area, during the race to the moon as her father worked on the Mercury, Gemini and early Apollo missions. Raised in the excitement and close social atmosphere so well portrayed in the movie “Apollo 13,” she watched every missile launch at the Cape and tracked the shots “downrange” during the space program’s early years. Her areas of academic study include International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Public Policy, with specific interest in mathematical modeling and forecasting. With previous careers as an artist/entrepreneur and a consultant on load forecasting, capitalization and economic development, she currently works in education.

Anny Wong, Ph.D.
Contributing Editor (Technology, Politics, International Relations, General)
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HERE

Anny is a political scientist at a major policy research institute. Her research interests include science and technology in development, politics and culture in domestic and international relations with a focus on Asia and the Pacific region, and Army manpower issues. She has lived, worked, studied and traveled throughout much of the Asia Pacific region and has been based in Washington, D.C. since 2000. When not at the computer, she is cooking up good eats (salmon patties with lemon juice and zest mayo, anyone?), teaching her English cocker spaniel new tricks (“wave” for a cookie), and cheering on her favorite competitor in G4′s Ninja Warrior (GO! Makoto Nagano, GO!).

Olivia Wolfe
Contributing Editor (Space Entrepreneurs, General)
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Olivia is an expert researcher and voracious reader of many items including science fiction, time and space travel, WWII and Vietnam War history, along with an occasional fiction novel. She is also a writer and currently is working on getting her manuscript published.

Kenneth Meehan, Ph.D.
Contributing Editor (Psychology, Statistics)
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Ken has a Ph.D. in psychology from the University of Hawaii at Manoa and has held a variety of teaching and research positions over the past 25 years. He’s served as Southwest Regional Director of the National Council for Research and Planning and has consulted with the National Center for Educational Statistics.

Jessica Franco
Contributing Editor (Pop Culture, General)
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Jessica will be a student at California State University, Fullerton starting in fall 2009. Majoring in Criminal Justice, Jessica is interested in becoming a Police Officer and attending Law school. She’s fascinated with the way history repeats itself — also known as “the wave”. Jessica enjoys running, hiking, and spending time with loved ones.

Bruce Cordell, Ph.D.
Bruce@21stCenturyWaves.com

Rachel Nishimura
Rachel@21stCenturyWaves.com

Bruce is available for public speaking; click HERE.

21stCenturyWaves.com
P.O. Box 1462
Bonsall, CA 92003
USA

Daily Wavelets are real-time comments about specific events and trends during the week from around the world that are relevant to The State of the Wave.

Daily Wavelets archived by Wave Guide:

1. Economic Growth

2. Public Opinion

3. Politics

4. Education

5. International Space

6. Entrepreneurs

7. NASA Programs

8. Non-Space MEPs

9. Global Conflict

10. Pop Culture

The State of the Wave appears 1 – 2 times per month and is our review of events and trends from around the world. It summarizes specific progress toward the opening of the 2015 Maslow Window, movement toward real, near-term space colonization, and is used to evaluate the forecasts especially in the context of the 10 Wave Guides..

For recent posts to “The State of the Wave“: Click HERE.

GOALS:

To evaluate the reliability of the 21st Century Wave forecasts and to suggest possible modifications:

Each Month: Provide an executive summary – “The State of the Wave” — of Daily Wavelets for all 10 Wave Guides, including numeric scoring.

Each Day: Provide real-time commentary – “Daily Wavelets” — and evaluation of 21stCenturyWaves’ forecasts against events and trends for all Wave Guides of special interest from around the world.

THE 10 WAVE GUIDES:

1. US and Global Economic Growth

• Unparalleled economic growth is a hallmark of Maslow Windows
• Economic boom triggers the positive psychological attitudes that stimulate society to move up the Maslow Heirarchy, and rapidly open the Maslow Window
• Economic boom provides the cash for investment and risk-taking
• Mandelbaum/Friedman Theory – Economic Growth is a Moral Imperative
• Identify new “leading-sector” technologies and industries; i.e., for penetration of K Barrier

2. U.S. Public Opinion about Space, Technology, and Exploration (STE)…(See also Wave Guide 10)

• Interest in STE begins to surge long before (~10 yr) the Maslow Window.
• Space exploration is latest manifestation of deep-seated human need to explore according to anthropologists
• Generational characteristics support STE
• Pop Culture reflects surge in STE interest (See Wave Guide 10)
• Long-term social cycles swing back toward “adventurer mentality.

3. U.S. Politics and Space

• Major technology development funding precedes Maslow Window by ~10 yrs
• As international STE (Space/Technology/Exploration) interests grow, American concern grows.
• Near 2013, an international Sputnik-like, watershed event will make global headlines just prior to the next Maslow Window.
• U.S. reacts with “crash” program consistent with political and economic realities as Maslow Window expands

4. U.S. Math and Science Education (e.g. build-up of Sputnik-style concerns)

• Declines in U.S. dominance in science and technology become linked with educational performance.
• Maslow Windows are linked with increased education funding, expecially in science and engineering

5. International Space Programs

• International space world becomes strongly multi-polar toward the Maslow Window
• Steps toward international coordination, including an Interspace-like organization, are initiated (e.g., the recent 13-Member Space Coordination)
• U.S. leadership is increasingly shared.

6. Space Entrepreneurs

• Space entrepreneurs stimulate public, private, and even government interest in space
• Space entrepreneurs develop new technologies and concepts that challenge government approaches
• Space Entrepreneurs operate initially near and in LEO with minor activity targeting the Moon; Mars and deep space remains primarily a governmental arena

7. NASA Exploration & Macro-Engineering Programs

• Approaching the Maslow Window, NASA’s goals become aggressive, spectacular, and unprecedented
• Space Initiatives are developed in response to international threats: technology, economic, and/or military
• Major space and technology initiatives will be linked and culminate within the Maslow Window or risk premature termination (e.g., Apollo 18-20)

8. Non-Space Macro-Engineering Projects

• Top MEPs (e.g., Panama Canal) are usually accompanied by secondary MEPs (e.g., Titanic) during the same Maslow Window
• Top MEPs are often unrelated to secondary MEPs during the same Maslow Window; e.g., In the Apollo Maslow Window, the Apollo Moon program was unrelated to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline
• Early secondary MEPs (e.g. Mackinac Bridge) are a signal that the Maslow Window is approaching (within 5 – 10 yrs)
• Late secondary MEPs (e.g., Trans-Atlantic Pipeline) are a signal the Maslow Window has ended or is ending

9. Global Conflict

• Every Maslow Window of the last 200 years was afflicted by a major war (e.g., W.W. I)
• The major war tends to occur late in the Maslow Window and terminates it
• Vietnam intensified earlier in the Maslow Window (e.g., 1968) than any major war in the last 200 years and could signal a new trend
• An “early” major war would potentially threaten the spectacular exploration and engineering activities of the Maslow Window; timing of major war is the biggest unknown

10. Pop Culture and Entertainment (See also Wave Guide 2)

• Modern pop culture reflects the concerns, beliefs, and interests of mainly young people
• In the 1960s, STE-related topics permeated pc
• The Vietnam War was a major influence on pc
• PC with STE-related topics and trends announce both the onset and closing of the Maslow Window

“Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future, too.” Marcus Aurelius, 121-180

Please Note: The “Nominal” Timelines showing detailed forecasts for 1997 to 2030 are shown below point VII.

I. The Big Questions:
Will there ever be another decade like the 1960s with major, Apollo-style human space exploration dominating the world’s headlines? If so, when? What specific events will occur?

II. 21st Century Forecasts, based on patterns that have repeated for 200 Years:
The decade from 2015-2025 will be the analog — economic, technological, political, exploration-wise – and have the Zeitgeist of the 1960s.
There will be at least one major Human Exploration (HE) event featuring unprecedented, large-scale human activities in space between 2015 and 2025.
There will be at least one Macro-Engineering Project (MEP) between 2015 and 2025; it will be completely integrated with the major Human Exploration event (e.g. like Apollo).
There will be a major war near 2025.

III. Two Centuries of Macro-Patterns:
A survey of the last 200 years reveals that major Human Explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark) and Macro-Engineering Projects (e.g., Panama Canal) cluster together approximately every 56 years (along with the most destructive wars) during economic booms. This enables the Forecasts.

IV. The Human Exploration Wave:
The fact that major Human Exploration events occur about every 56 years – Lewis and Clark (1804-), Dr. Livingstone/Africa (1850s-), Peary’s Polar Expeditions (1909), and the Apollo Moon Program (1960-) – suggests there is a major Human Exploration Wave operating at least over the last 200 years.

V. Connections with the 56-Year Energy Cycle:
Discovered in 1989, the all-energy consumption cycle has a period of 56 years and is roughly sinusoidal; it is documented almost to 1800. Since 1800, each of the four energy cycle peak years – 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969 – has at least one major HE, one MEP, and one large war near it (except for 1801; it had no MEP). The HEs and MEPs tend to occur during the decade preceding the energy peak, while the large wars typically occur just after the peak.

VI. Maslow Windows and Human Aspirations:
Energy cycle peaks are the times of economic booms. Since the Human Exploration wave is in sync with surges in MEPs and major wars, they are probably enabled by the same thing: exceptionally rapid economic growth in the decade just before each energy peak. According to Maslow’s Heirarchy, when fundamental human needs are met, individuals are more interested in human explorations and the search for truth. Therefore, the decade just prior to each energy cycle peak (which always features major HEs and MEPs during the economic boom) is called a “Maslow Window”.

VII. The Next Maslow Window (2015 – 2025) Will Be Spectacular :
Patterns in economics, technology, and exploration over the last 200 years enable us to make forecasts for the next 20+ years, including for the 2015-2025 Maslow Window. Our expectations should realistically include humans on Mars, solar power satellites in Earth orbit, and tourists on the Moon.

The Nominal Timelines below are forecasts where the 56 year cycle is taken literally. Other interesting forecast/timelines are also possible depending on assumptions.

Nominal Timeline 1997 – 2010

1997tmline.doc

Nominal Time 2011 – 2019

2011tmline.doc

Nominal Timeline 2020 – 2030

2020tmine.doc

The next 3 Figures are from Cordell (1996) in Space Policy; See Articles.

The Figures show major human explorations, macro-engineering projects, and very large wars over the last 200 years relative to the 56 year Energy Cycle.
The Figures span 1800-1870, 1870-1940, and 1940-2010, respectively.

Click: 18004.pdf:

Click: 19001.pdf

Click: 19691.pdf

It is possible to scientifically forecast that the first manned Mars mission will occur around 2025. Based on long-term economic, technological, and societal trends that have repeated for centuries…

“Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space: The New Race to Space,” B. Cordell, PowerPoint Presentation (September 11, 2008), AIAA-2008-7870, Space 2008 Conference, San Diego, CA, Click cordellaiaa91108.ppt.

“The Next 25 Years in Space: Long-Term Trends, Forecasts, Timelines,” B. Cordell, PowerPoint Presentation (January, 2007).
Click 21cw107.ppt

“21st Century Waves — Forecasting Technology Booms and Human Expansion into the Cosmos”, B. Cordell, Futures Research Quarterly, V. 22, No. 3, pp. 21-41 (Fall, 2006). Click 2006frq.pdf:

“Forecasting the next 20 years in space: The new race to space,” B. Cordell, A. Hovey and K. Meehan, (Abstract) AIAA Space 2008 Conference, San Diego (2008). Click HERE.

“Forecasting the next major thrust into space” B. Cordell, Space Policy, V. 12, 1, pp. 45-57 (1996).
click 1996.pdf:

“Space planners can learn from Desert Storm – Commentary”, B. Cordell, Space News, June 24 – July 7 (1991). Click space1.pdf.

We can send humans to Mars within the next decade. Key beneficiaries will be K-16+ math/science education and international relations.

“Transportation Approaches for Manned Mars Missions” B. Cordell, AIAA-90-3892, AIAA Space Programs and Technology Conference, Huntsville, AL (1990).
Click 1990transapp.pdf:

“Interspace – Design for an International Space Agency” B. Cordell, Space Policy V. 8, 4, pp. 287-297 (1992).
Click 1992int.pdf:

“The Challenge of Mars” B. Cordell, Ad Astra, National Space Society, V. 2, 5, pp. 8-14 (May, 1990).
Click 1990adastra.pdf:

“Manned Mars mission overview – Invited Paper” B. Cordell, AIAA-89-2766, Joint Propulsion Conference, Monterey, CA (1989).

It is possible and profitable to retrieve water from Mars for use in Earth-Moon space. The first scientific, technological, and economic evaluation of this concept for interplanetary commerce…

“The Moons of Mars: A source of water for lunar bases and LEO.” B. Cordell, In Lunar Bases and Space Activities of the 21st Century, pp. 809-816 (1985). Click HERE.

“An analysis of advanced space strategies featuring the role of space resource utilization” B. Cordell and O. Steinbronn, Acta Astronautica V. 26, 1, pp. 19-27 (1992).
Click 1992iau.pdf:

“Search for the Lost Lunar Lakes” B. Cordell, Astronomy Vol. 21, No. 3, March 1993. Click lunarlakes.pdf.

“Implications of the NASA Lunar Initiative for a typical space transportation architecture” B. Cordell, C. Varnado & C. McLain, In Symposium on Lunar Bases and Space Activities of the 21st Century, Lunar & Planetary Inst., Houston, 1988.

“Exofuel – Presentation to NASA” B. Cordell, C. Cassell, J. Che, D. Peterson, & T. Zuppero, General Dynamics, Space Systems Division, 8362-89-040 (1989).

Mars is rich in usable resources (i.e. ore bodies). The first systematic assessment…

“A preliminary assessment of Martian natural resource potential” B. Cordell, (AAS 84-185) In The Case for Mars II, V. 62, pp. 627-640 (1985).
Click 1984resources.pdf:

NEXT APOLLO-STYLE SPACE RACE IN 5+ YEARS?

Macroeconomic and Macrohistorical Trends Over Last 200 Years Support Near-Term Space Forecast

Today’s world is afflicted by natural disasters, economic uncertainty, and global terrorism. Is it possible that President Kennedy’s 40+ year old vision of human expansion into space will rise again, in less than ten years, to dominate global headlines?

This weblog — http://21stCenturyWaves.com — shows the answer is yes.

Trends over the last 200 years – in the economy, technology, and society – clearly point to the decade between 2015 and 2025 as heralding a similar economic and exploration boom as the 1960s, accompanied by a Camelot-style zeitgeist.

When the 1960s wave of space exploration is viewed in the context of other major science, technology, and exploration advances over the last 200 years, it becomes possible to forecast the next peak in human achievement. As trends are examined, major events in human exploration (e.g., Lewis and Clark), massive state-of-the-art engineering projects (e.g., Panama Canal), and exceptionally destructive wars (e.g., Civil War) are seen to cluster together roughly every 56 years, near times of economic booms.

This new macroeconomic/macrohistorical approach to strategic technology forecasting convincingly explains our national romance with the Apollo Moon program in the 1960s, and society’s waning interest in it in the 1970s. Even more importantly, it enables scientific forecasts about the specific timing and key drivers of events in our future, including the following:

1) When will humans land on Mars and vacation on the Moon?
2) Why has public support for space waned since the 1970s and, despite a world often full of bad news, why is it increasing now?
3) What are some of the near-term economic, technological, and political events we can expect that will culminate by 2025 in the greatest technology and space extravaganzas ever seen?

In summary, the two major themes presented in the 21st Century Waves blog are:
A) New scientific evidence for the psychosocial power of the space vision suggests that, like prior periods of significant human achievement, it is capable of providing a revitalizing force for human civilization in the near future, and
B) Despite its compelling nature, the Space Vision will not fully begin to materialize until around 2015 when long-term trends in economics, technology, and society are favorable again.

These themes and the forecast for 2015 have been featured in such journals as Space Policy, Futures Research Quarterly, Ad Astra. and as a presentation topic at AIAA conferences. You’re invited to join General Dynamics, Advanced Space Systems alumnus Dr. Cordell and a specially selected group of contributing editors and consultants as we track our forecasts in real-time against daily events and trends from around the world in 10 Wave Guide areas, including economic growth, non-space macro-engineering projects, popular culture, as well as NASA and international space activities.

This is “Space Colonization Central!”
We specialize in timing, roadmaps, and growth strategies.

Check us out!
Your comments and suggestions are welcome!

AS A PREVIEW… The rest of 21stCenturyWaves.com provides more background on the Forecasts themselves as well as real-time posts comparing them to global current events and trends. For example:

1. Perspectives is ideal if you’re new to this Blog because it explains why each Wave Guide is important to evaluating our forecasts, and it sets the stage for all subsequent posts in each Wave Guide area.
2. The Articles contains some of the original papers that describe many of the long-term trends in the economy, technology, and exploration that are the basis for the forecasts.
3. The Forecasts provides the basic rationale for our space colonization-related forecasts based on trends over the last 200 years. Specific “nominal” model forecasts are shown out to 2030 in the form of timelines.
4. 200 Years shows graphically the energy cycle and the timing of many key exploration, technology, and military events over the last 200 years.
6. 10 Wave Guides lists and describes the key indicators that we use to evaluate current progress toward space colonization.
6. The State of the Wave appears 1 – 2 times per month (on Fridays) and is a review of events and trends used to evaluate the forecasts via the 10 Wave Guides.
7. Daily Wavelets are real-time comments about specific events and trends during the week that are relevant to The State of the Wave.
8. Readers’ Favorite Posts are just that, and the Favorites are updated every other week. This is especially useful if you’re new to the site and want to get the flavor of what others are exploring here.
9. The Disclaimer states that this is a personal blog, and as such, the views expressed here are our own.
10. Also, Bruce is available for public speaking. For more information please click HERE.