Oct 17 2009
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Bruce Cordell, Ph.D.
and
Rachel Nishimura
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I hope you are interested in this blog of mine and in particular the graph and in particulat the secondary line on it. The graph was produced to make a point about 3rd world growth, the primary line, but I was more interested in the secondary which shows developed world growth rates peaking around 1958 and declining since then. This suggests the Kennedy boom was past the peak of the cycle but then if the apparent peaks of cycles are shortly after the real one this would suggest that what is happening is society maximising the amount it extracts from new wealth while reducing reinvestment – which would be a reason for cycles to end.
http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot.com/2011/07/growth-rates-have-been-reduced-are.html
I have also written largely approvingly in today’s entry on your ideas.
Hi Neil,
Thanks for your interesting comment and post on your blog.
I made a comment on your blog in relation to both.
Best regards,
Bruce
I am an ex-professor. I am going to publish a business dictionary. May I use the photo of Panama canal in my dictionary for the clarification of explanation of Panama canal?
Hello Bruce and Rachel,
I hope you’re both well.
Have you looked at the article at http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2067/1. How does this historical event fit into the the “Maslow Window” hypothesis?
Hi Chuck,
Thanks for forwarding that article.
Naturally I think the author is on the right track but I see the coming golden age as a near-term event (mid-decade).
Like wars and macro-engineering projects, space programs appear to be currently (and over at least the last 2 centuries) driven by the formation of self-organized “critical states” in the international economic system, that manifest themselves as twice-per-century JFK-style economic booms.
Apollo-level explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark) are driven by the booms and related geopolitical circumstances (e.g., Napoleon and Louisiana) and are almost inevitable. To avoid them we’d have to shut down the international economic system so self-organization isn’t possible.
BTW, the financial Panic of 2008, the Great Recession of 2008-10, and the continuing slow recovery are part of a 200-year pattern and are typical precursors of the coming mid-decade Maslow Window.
Best regards,
Bruce