1960s-style economic booms appear to be the triggers of great explorations from Lewis and Clark to Apollo, as well as the largest macro-engineering projects from the Suez Canal to Apollo.

That’s the extraordinary lesson of the last 200+ years.

However, Helmut Gaus asks if our prosperity is fundamentally more a matter of human psychology than just economics?
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Gaus, a professor of political science at the University of Ghent in Belgium, has spent decades documenting an “Anxiety Wave,” which is the inverse of the better known long economic wave. According to Gaus (Why Yesterday Tells of Tomorrow, 2003)

If we scan two centuries of European history … a certain number of cultural-historical and mental changes show the same cyclic course as Kondratiev’s (economic) long wave. Not all of them can be as easily followed back to fluctuations in the market … On the face of it, these currents indicate an increase and decrease in the level of anxiety in society, with peaks and low points that correspond with the peaks and lows of Kondratiev’s long wave.

If Gaus is correct, the Maslow Window expected near 2015 (plus all those of the last 200+ years) is caused directly by the mass psychology of an “ascending phase” of the long economic wave.

In a descending long wave, in a period of increasing uncertainty and existential anxiety, the keynote of the state of mind of a whole population is different from that in an ascending phase of the same long wave, in which self-assurance and self-confidence and all other states of mind that are typical of this begin to get the upper hand.

Gaus bases his Anxiety Wave on “the best documented mass phenomenon that appears to be the subtlest indicator of the collective unconscious in our Western world”: women’s fashion. For example, Gaus has identified a yellow/orange fashion metric that’s apparently indicative of a positive mind set, as indicated in Figure 2. Notice that the index ascends during the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window until about 1968, when it begins a steep descent until the mid-1970s. Its decline continues more gently into the 1990s.

Fig. 2. According to Gaus, from 1956 to 2000 the bright color scheme (of yellow/orange) in women’s fashions indicates a “happiness wave” consistent with long waves in the economy
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If it is real, we’d expect that Gaus’ fashion-based Anxiety Wave — the inverse of the “happiness wave” shown above in Fig. 2 — would correlate well with unemployment; and it does, see Fig. 3. Notice how anxiety and unemployment decline during the 1960s Maslow Window until about 1968, and then begin a steady rise until the mid-1980s.

Fig. 3. Unemployment in Germany from 1956 to 2000 correlates well with Gaus’ fashion-based Anxiety Wave.
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Although the number of marriages (in the Netherlands) is inversely correlated with the Anxiety Wave, the mean age of the mother at the birth of her first child (in Germany) from 1956 to 2000 is directly correlated. As anxiety drops during the 1960s Maslow Window so does the mean age until about 1970 when both reverse and begin an upward trend.

Fig. 4. The mean age of a mother at the birth of her first child (in Germany) declined until 1968 and increased thereafter.
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Even astrology correlates with Gaus’ Anxiety Wave. The end of the 1960s Maslow Window near 1968 triggers a steep increase in the number of books on astrology in German and British libraries, which levels off in the mid-1980s.

Fig. 5. Apparently astrology comforted an increasing number of people (in Germany and the UK) after the 1960s Maslow Window ended near 1968.
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Because human anxiety is very difficult to measure, especially on a mass basis, Gaus’ data does not prove that an Anxiety Wave exists or that it drives the long economic wave (e.g. Kondratiev Wave). However, it does provide intriguing evidence of rhythmic, twice-per-century fluctuations of significant non-economic parameters in society, that correlates well with long-term economic trends.

Dimitri Maex at DoubleThink.com suggests that in addition to fashion, search engines might work too…

The idea that fluctuations in the economy are caused by the collective levels of anxiety is interesting but hard to prove. Data on the mental state of society is scarce, which is why Gaus used data on fashion as a proxy. There is however a relatively new data source that holds exteremely rich informatoion on what’s on people’s minds – it’s the data held by search engines. Knowing what people search on and how that changes over time could potentially lead to a barometer of society’s mental state.

Gaus boldly ends his book with 20 future behavioral trends, including the major economic boom of 2015 that is expected to trigger the next 1960s-style Maslow Window and the new international Space Age.

I had a very Merry Christmas season this year – specifically,  about 500 powerful pages by Robert Merry.   His new book is  A Country of Vast Designs: James K. Polk, The Mexican War and the Conquest of the American Continent (2009). 

Many agree it’s enthralling.  The New York Times (Sean Wilentz, 11/22/09) calls it “one of the most astute and informative historical accounts yet written about national politics, and especially Waahington politics, during the decisive 1840s.”  The Wall Street Journal (Aram Bakshian, Jr; 11/6/09) says it’s an “authoritative biography …(that) provides a compelling, perceptive portrait of one of the oddest men (James Polk) ever to occupy the White House…”

Against all odds, this smaller-than-life man achieved the impossible and ebulliently changed the world in only 4 short years; President James K. Polk in 1845. 

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In his unlikely, self-imposed one-term presidency, Polk accomplished the nearly impossible — he “engineered the triumph of Manifest Destiny” (NY Times) — including the annexation of Texas (1845), and the acquisition of the Oregon Territory (1846) and essentially the rest of the U.S. West including California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona — all by 1848.

This is an extraordinary story that occurred in ebullient times that we call a ”Maslow Window”  – see  ”Buzz Aldrin — A Man For All Maslow Windows!” –  less than half a century after Lewis and Clark  explored the Louisiana Purchase to the Pacific, and still a few decades before the U.S. became the leading economic power on Earth.  Probably for this reason, neither the Great Exploration of this Window — see 10 Lessons Dr. Livingstone (“…I presume?”) Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space –  nor the primary Macro-Engineering Project (MEP)  – the Suez Canal –  were closely related to the U.S.  (although Stanley was dispatched by a New York newspaper to find Livingstone in Africa). 

However, the affluence-induced ebullience  — see The Economics of Ebullience Points to a Sparkling New Global Space Age–  that triggered these epochal events abroad was also strongly present in the U.S. as evidenced in Merry’s book.  Here are a few examples:

1. New Technology Was “Exploding” in America.

According to Ralph Waldo Emerson in 1844, “American is the country of the Future.  It is a country of beginnings, of projects, of vast designs and expectations.”  

Merry explains that a key reason the “impulse of exuberant expansionism” continued to surge was because,  ”Just as America was encompassing ever greater distances, technology –  steam power and Morse’s telegraph — was obliterating the sluggishness of distance.”

2. The Financial Panic of 1837 and Great Recession Recovered by 1843 to a most “Prosperous State of Affairs.”

The financial Panic of 1837 was a major contraction where 40% of the U.S. banks failed and unemployment was at record highs; the resulting Great Recession lasted 6 years until 1843.  According to Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman writing in 1960, the Panic of 1837 “is the only depression on record comparable in severity and scope to the Great Depression of the 1930s.”

Merry notes that,

Within nine weeks of Van Buren’s innauguration, economic collapse swept the country. It began when New York banks suspended specie payments, causing widespread alarm and setting in motion a deflationary period as credit dried up … The Panic of 1837 ushered in “a cycle of recession, recovery, and depression” that would dominate American politics for the next seven years … Van Buren lost much of his popularity … Polk remained a stalwart floor leader for Van Buren’s agenda, but the tide had turned against his party.

Polk left the House and won the Tennessee governorship in 1839, but lost it in 1841 and 1843. “At forty-seven, he knew he looked washed up…”  But due to his pro-Texas annexation position which mirrored the expansionist electorate, Polk, against all odds, became the Democratic candidate for president and was elected in 1844.

As Polk assumed the presidency in 1845, the dynamic duo of prosperity and ebullience was everywhere.  According to Merry,

The national economy had been expanding at an average annual rate of 3.9%.  Not even the Panic of 1837, for all its destructive force, could forestall for long this creation of wealth.  And throughout the land could be seen a confidence that fueled national success. “We are now reaching the very height, perhaps, to which we can expect to ascend,” declared the Democratic Wilmington Gazette of Delaware.

Despite the Panic of 1837 and its Great Recession, the mid-19th Century Dr. Livingstone/Suez Maslow Window (roughly 1847 to 1860) opened on time and featured Africa’s most famous explorer (Dr. Livingstone), the “technological jewel” of the 19th Century (the Suez Canal), as well as impressive secondary MEPs (including the Great Eastern ship).   In addition to the stunning culmination of American Manifest Destiny in 1848,  this Maslow Window’s ebullience is also  exemplified by the famous Gold Rush of the American West (1848 – 1855).

Over the last 200 years, financial panics and great recessions have usually preceded Maslow Windows; see ”Economic Crisis Supports Maslow Window Forecasts.”  Two 19th Century panics (1837 and 1893) , were both about one decade prior to their Maslow Windows;  none in 1949 (during the post W.W. II boom) one decade before the Apollo Maslow Window;  and one in 2008 (7 years before our expected 2015 Maslow Window). The New York Times (11/30/08) also describes a “deep recession” that appearently occurred somewhat after 1776, about 10+  years before the Lewis & Clark Maslow Window.

In fact, during the last 200+ years, no financial panic/great recession pair has ever delayed or diminished, in any observable way, any Great Explorations or MEPs associated with a Maslow Window. And there’s every reason to expect this 200+ year pattern will continue.

3.  The Controversial Mexican War Played a Major Role in U.S. Expansion.

Wars that occur early in the Maslow Windows of the last 200 years are complex, destructive events  — far beyond the scope of our discussion here — but according to historical accounts, usually play an important role in the ensuing events of the Maslow Windows.  It appears that ebullience — also known as “animal spirits” and “irrational exuberance” in an economic context; see ”Are Great Explorations Driven by Keynesian “Animal Spirits” on Steroids?“ – played a central role.

A few of the interesting parallels are sketched here:

Despite the (then) unresolved issues of slavery and the legality of the war, the Mexican War was vigorously and successfully executed by Polk with the support of the American people. Their ebullient expansionist belief in Manifest Destiny transformed the world.  According to Merry, the U.S. was “a vibrant, expanding, exuberant experiment in democracy whose burgeoning population thrilled to the notion that it was engaging in something big and historically momentous.”  This is the language of societal ebullience.

One Maslow Window earlier, the Napoleonic Wars in Europe played a major role enabling the Lewis and Clark expedition and in launching U.S. westward expansion.  Napoleon’s need to fund his war machine encouraged the sale of Louisiana to Jefferson;  see “10 Lessons Lewis & Clark Teach Us About the Human Future in Space.”

Likewise, the Spanish-American War of 1898 — as the Great 1890s Recession was ending and as the ebullient Peary/Panama Maslow Window began – played an intriguing role in Maslow Window events.  “Remember the Maine, to hell with Spain!”, an Alamo-like cry in response to the deaths of 266 US sailors while anchored in Havana Harbor, helped ignite the Spanish-American War.  To replace the Maine, another battleship (USS Oregon) stationed on the Pacific coast rushed 14,700 miles around South America to Cuba — while Teddy Roosevelt, leader of the famous “Rough Riders,” vectored toward Cuban battle himself.  Since the Oregon arrived at Cuba two months after war began, it didn’t require much abstract thinking for TR to recognize the Panama Canal’s potential strategic advantages;   see “10 Lessons the Panama Canal Teaches Us About the Human Future in Space.”

Early in the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window, Cuba again was the focus of an even bigger crisis for America and President John F. Kennedy: the Cuban Missile Crisis.  Because of Soviet emplacement of offensive nuclear missiles in Cuba the world came closer to a major nuclear exchange than ever before or since.  Although this crisis did not ignite the Space Age — the surprise 1957 launch of Sputnik did that — it intensified the Moon race and showed that the global stakes were high; see ”The New Cuban Space Center and Vladimir Bonaparte.”

The “early Maslow Window wars” are continuing into the present – Iraq, Afghanistan, the War on Terror – as we recover from our Panic of 2008/Great Recession combination (analogous to the Panic of 1893/Great 1890s Recession and Panic of 1837/Great Recession), and as we ebulliently head toward the much anticipated, spectacular 2015 Maslow Window.  

4. Manifest Destiny Was Fueled by an “Exuberance of Spirit” Across the U.S.

There are many visionary quotes in Merry’s book that clearly indicate the extraordinary level of ebullience permeating mid-1840s America, but one of the most striking is from an obscure Democratic congressman from Ohio (then a western state) named John D. Cummins, who referred to the disputed Oregon Territory as nothing less than,

“the master key of the commerce of the universe.”  Get that territory into U.S. jurisdiction, he argued, and soon it would fill up with “an industrious, thriving, American population” and “flourishing towns and embryo cities” facing west upon the Pacific within four thousand miles of vast Asian markets.  Now contemplate, he added, ribbons of railroad track across America, connecting New York, Boston, and Philadelphia to those burgeoning West Coast cities and ports that would spring up once Oregon was in American hands. 

Cumins continued, think about how the “inevitable external laws of trade” would render American the necessary passageway for “the whole eastern commerce of Europe.” … “The commerce of the world would thus be revolutionized.”

Cummins bold vision was easily dismissed as hopelessly fanciful in a world utterly dominated by Great Britain. And yet it crystallized a fundamental element of the era’s politics — the widely shared conviction that America was a nation of destiny, that one day it would supplant Britain as the world’s dominant power, that Oregon represented merely an interim step toward realization of that vision.

Merry’s bottom line regarding Polk and American ebullience of the 1840s  is simple but powerful:

his legacy comes down to … the map outline of the continental United States, which is very close to what Polk bequeathed to his nation … To look at that map, and to take in the western and southwestern expanse included in it, is to see the magnitude of Polk’s presidential accomplishments … It didn’t come easily or cheaply …It unleashed civic forces that hadn’t been foreseen and couldn’t be controlled … But in the end he succeeded and fulfilled the vision and dream of his constituency.  In a democratic system that is the ultimate measure of political success.

The expansionist effects of ebullience apparently drove not only the Manifest Destiny of 1840s America, but also Jefferson’s seminal Lewis and Clark expedition, and the early 20th century’s international races to the north and south poles as well as the greatest MEP of the last 200 years (until Apollo): the Panama Canal.  In the 1960s the expansionist effects of ebullience finally drove us offworld to the Moon. 

As we approach another ebullient golden age of prosperity, exploration, and technology — the 2015 Maslow Window — it’s very likely the impossible will be accomplished again and the world will be changed.

Special thanks to Contributing Editor and psychologist Dr. Ken Meehan for helping me think more clearly about this discussion.  (This post is taken from a working paper soon to be submitted to a journal.)

Here at 21stCenturyWaves.com, “ebullience” is a technical term. 

It’s defined as a very positive, somewhat irrational — almost giddy – emotional state,  that’s usually due to widespread affluence during a 1960s-style major economic boom.  In response to affluence-induced ebullience, many people ascend the Maslow hierarchy where their expanded world views make Great Explorations and MEPs seem not just intriguing, but almost irresistible  –  hence the name “Maslow Window.”  

In the 1960s Apollo program and Peace Corps of John F. Kennedy it was the ebullient feeling that we could do almost anything; in the early 20th century it was Theodore Roosevelt’s Panama fever and (north & south) pole mania;  in the mid-19th century is was manifest destiny of James Polk and the central Africa adventures of Dr. Livingstone, I presume; and about 200 years ago it began auspiciously with Jefferson, Napoleon, and Lewis & Clark. 

However,  even during these rhythmic,  twice-per-century waves of ebullience, some people remain stalled at lower Maslow levels and thus are empowered negatively; i.e., they sometimes trigger conflicts or even major wars (e.g., WW I) that can terminate Maslow Windows. 

SOCIETAL EBULLIENCE DRIVES MASLOW WINDOWS

It appears that ebullience has been the fundamental driving force behind the stunning exploration and engineering activities during Maslow Windows over the last 200 years, and ebullience appears to be similar to the “animal spirits” of behavioral economist John Maynard Keynes and the “irrational exhuberance” of Alan Greenspan.    Historically, widespread ebullience is usually short-lived because it is fundamentally a psychological phenomenon that often responds to feelings and perceptions — both positive or negative –  more than facts.

Societal ebullience is usually triggered by a major economic boom, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be.  For example,  if benevolent extraterrestrials landed at the White House, this would probably trigger at least momentary global ebullience, regardless of our financial state.  Conversely, ebullience is often terminated by bad financial trends (such as the economic boom moving past its peak and declining), but the psychology of ebullience can be eroded by almost anything negative, such as a war or even unfriendly extraterrestrials landing at the White House.

However,  recently we’ve seen again that even the availability of large amounts of funds – e.g.,  the $ 787 B stimulus package – does not guarantee ebullience, as evidenced by negative attitudes and actions of the U.S. public (documented through surveys and opinion polls).  Even a small fraction of the stimulus money would enable the greatest human space program of all time, but it hasn’t happened yet because the public isn’t in the mood. They are simply not ebullient.

THE ECONOMICS OF EBULLIENCE

The issues are:  What specific economic factors trigger ebullience?  And can we create a numerical Ebullience Index composed of economic parameters that will allow us to track and analyze it?

 One possibility is that the public is responding to increases in GDP like those experienced before and during the 1960 Apollo Maslow Window; see plot below.

Figure 1 — The U.S. GDP (in B of 2000 USD) since 1950 shows the 1950s post-WW II boom and the major economic boom of the Apollo Maslow Window between 1961 and 1969.    CLICK   

It’s clear that rapid economic growth occurred until about 1961 when the economy went into even higher gear and produced the greatest economic boom up to that time.  But who really cares about GDP?  Undoubtedly economists and business forecasters do as well as some politicians, but nobody can spend GDP so it’s probably not triggering ebullience in typical American employees.

Better hints are found in Benjamin Friedman’s 2005 book, The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth. The Harvard professor suggests that sustained economic growth is important because these are times when typical workers feel like they are really getting ahead; i.e., their wages are increasing relative to inflation.

But common sense informs us that ebullience will not result from a comfortable increase in real wages if we’re worried about losing our jobs.  So healthy growth in real wages coupled with low unemployment rates may be related to the widespread feeling of ebullience in society.

THE EBULLIENCE RATIO AND THE 1960s APOLLO MASLOW WINDOW

As an experiment, let’s define the Ebullience Ratio (ER) as proportional to real wages divided by the rate of unemployment as percent of workforce.  Keep in mind this is an attempt to express widespread feelings of affluence-induced ebullience in terms of common economic parameters.  Annual values for the ER have been computed for the 1950s and 1960s Apollo Maslow Window; see plot below.

Figure 2 — The Ebullience Ratio from 1950 to 1974 peaks at 1969 (Apollo 11 Moon landing) and clearly displays the Apollo Maslow Window from about 1961 to 1969.  

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As unemployment drops, the ER increases, and as unemployment approaches full employment, the ER dramatically increases,  reflecting the presence of a major economic boom during the 1960s Maslow Window (from about 1961 to 1969).  Short business cycles are seen in the 1950s ER data that are superimposed on pre-Maslow Window economic growth.  In 1958 the short business cycles subside as unemployment declines signaling the approach of the Maslow Window.  The highest ER is in 1969 and drops rapidly thereafter as the Maslow Window closes.

The consistency of both the economic (GDP) and ebullience (ER) trends — especially between 1961 and 1969 – suggests that the Apollo Maslow Window is well described by these parameters.

THE EBULLIENCE INDEX

As another experiment,  let’s define the Ebullience Index (EI) for an interval of time as the integral of the ER function (i.e., the fractional ER increase per year as a function of time) over the duration of the interval in question (e.g., the Maslow Window).   This synthesizes the annual rate of change of real wages divided by their rates of unemployment — the two things that matter most to a typical worker – into a single index for any Maslow Window.

Using ER values for the interval between 1961 and 1969, the 1960s Apollo Maslow Window has an Ebullience Index of 4.9.  This number is most meaningful in comparison with other Maslow Windows and/or intervals, so we’ll  look now at the economics and ebullience of the Peary/Panama Maslow WIndow.

WHAT  ABOUT THE EARLY 1900s PEARY/PANAMA MASLOW WINDOW?

It’s interesting to compare the 1960s Maslow Window ebullience values with those of the early 20th century Peary/Panama Maslow Window, because Peary/Panama was preceded by the financial Panic of 1893 and the great recession of the 1890s (like our current panic/recession), while neither existed before the Apollo Window (although WW II did).

Figure 3 –  This U.S. GDP (B in 2000 USD) plot from 1890 to 1914 clearly shows the great 1890s recession that transitions into rapid growth, interrupted by two brief recessions, until 1913 when the Peary/Panama Maslow Window ends abruptly.
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Notice that GDP is flat during the 1890s great recession but perks up — signaling the onset of the Peary/Panama Maslow WIndow — after 1901.

Figure 4 — Ebullience Ratios from 1890 onward clearly convey the psychological dimensions of the 1890s great recession which began with the financial Panic of 1893, and the supersonic Maslow Window recovery beginning in 1898. 

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If you compare the 1960s ER trends (Fig. 2) with Fig. 4 you see that Maslow Windows preceded by a financial panic are quite different from those without. Athough GDP data (Fig. 3) suggest the economy was already humming again by 1896, the ER data (Fig. 4)  suggest the psychological impact of the 1890s great recession lingered until about 1898 when the Maslow Window opened.  Although ER peaks in 1906, historical events suggest the Window itself continued until 1913; WW I began in 1914.

Just to give you a little chronology here: Theodore Roosevelt’s presidency ran from 1901 to 1909; U.S. construction of the Panama Canal began in 1904 and was completed in 1914;  the international races to the poles culminated between 1909 (Peary first to N pole) and 1911 (Amundsen first to S. pole).

For  the first 8 years of the Peary/Panama Maslow Window — from 1898 to 1906 — the Ebullience Index is 13.9,  almost 3x the value (4.9) for the Apollo Window.  This supports my impression from reading historical accounts of the era (e.g., America 1908 by Jim Rasenberger) that the Peary/Panama Maslow Window was even more ebullient  — if that’s possible!! –  than the 1960s Apollo Moon decade.

The Peary/Panama Window apparently produced so much affluence and ebullience  that extraordinary exploration and engineering activities  – characteristic of populations at elevated Maslow states –  continued until 1913, well after the 1906 ER peak.  On the other hand, this may suggest our Ebullience Index may not include all psychologically relevant factors.

OUR CURRENT LACK OF EBULLIENCE AND THE COMING GLOBAL SPACE AGE

 Over the last 200 years, Maslow Windows tend to culminate every 55 or 60 years near peaks of the energy cycle; and open about 10 years earlier.  This led to my initial forecast (made in 1996) for another spectacular, 1960s-style Maslow Window  opening near 2015 and culminating by 2025.  Although wildcards can alter this nominal timing,  the economics of ebullience suggests our time is coming soon:  indeed, we appear to be only a few more years from the next Maslow Window.

In particular, the financial Panic of 2008 suggests that our current trajectory might be more similar to the Peary/Panama Maslow Window than the 1960s Apollo Window, which had no financial panic/great recession in the decade just preceding it. 

Figure 5 –  The U.S. GDP (B in 2000 USD) from 1985 to 2009 displays the Panic of 2008 and our current great recession in the 2 points on the right adge. 

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The recessions of 1990 and 2001 are seen by flattenings of the GDP curve, and the Panic of 2008 (next to the right edge) preceded the current great recession.  Note that the theoretical trough of the 56-year energy cycle is in 1997.

 Figure 6 — Ebullience Ratios from 1985 to 2009 show the Panic of 2008 and our current great recession, as well as a very interesting boom from 1991 to 2001. 

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 The dramatic collapse of ER starting in 2007  just preceded the Panic of 2008 and the great recession continuing to the present.  If you compare Figure 6 to Figure 4 you’ll see that our future could evolve something like the Peary/Panama Maslow Window — a rather exciting prospect once we recover from our current challenges.  We’ll return to this in a minute.

Notice the impressive economic boom in the center of  Figure 6, from 1991 to 2001; it’s the longest expansion in U.S. history.  Although it occurred at the long wave trough (1997), the 1990s boom has many basic economic characteristics of a Maslow Window  — duration of 10 years, rapid real GDP increase, and an amazingly large Ebullience Index of 5.3 (compared to Apollo’s 4.9 and Peary’s 13.9)  –  but, although plans for the International Space Station (to be completed in 2011) began in the early 1990s and construction began in 1998, the next major international thrust into space did not occur then.

The Apollo-size Ebullience Index of the great 1990s boom suggests this parameter, as defined above,  is incomplete.  To make a long story short: the answer is provided by the economics of the 1990s and the nature of ebullience.  To have widespread ebullience, large segments of the population must share in the boom’s affluence, but during the 1990s income inequality grew appreciably;  this continued a long trend that interestingly began in 1968 near the end of the Apollo Window.  Without going into the numbers here, merely inserting an income inequality factor (e.g., the Gini index) into the denominator of the Ebullience Ratio will significantly decrease the Ebullience Index of the 1990s boom and increase Apollo’s EI (when income inequality declined).

The bottomline is that the appearance of the Panic of 2008 was historically monumental.  It signaled that our future trajectory will be more like that of the early 20th century Peary/Panama Maslow Window and less like the 1950s.

This is both good news and bad news:

The Bad News is that the current great recession could last up to 5 years, like the 1890s great recession did (1893 to 1898; See Fig. 4).  Ebullience and a shorter recession will be favored by government policies that stimulate economic growth,  increase real wages, and reduce unemployment for most segments of society.

The Good News is that once we survive the recession, the future’s so bright we’ll all need shades!  The Peary/Panama Maslow Window had a measurable ebullience of nearly 3 times the Apollo Moon decade and suggests that  – if unabridged by wildcards –  global space-related investment between 2015 and 2025 should be at the $ 1 T to 3 T (2007 USD) level.  Empowering the 2015 Maslow Window with Peary/Panama-level ebullience points to  many of our fondest, unprecedented dreams like major space-based solar energy systems, international lunar commercialization, and even the first Mars colonists.

After a financial year like 2008 we need some comic relief to start the new year, and Monday’s Wall Street Journal (12/29/08; Andrew Osborn) serves up just what the doctor ordered in the form of a Russian professor who predicts the collapse and breakup of the United States in 2010.

Igor Panarin — a former KGB agent currently with the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats — believes that “an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S.” Mr. Panarin’s Khruschev-style vision forecasts America doing the splits into 4 major regions: California Republic, Texas Republic, Atlantic America, and Central North American Replublic. Although “there’s a 45-55% chance right now that disintegration will occur” in June, 2010, Mr Panarin claims not to rejoice at the prospect because “it’s not the best scenario — for Russia.”

Igor Panarin’s vision of the future United States. Click .

However, Panarin’s model is not supported by long-term trends. Indeed, based on macroeconomic data from the last 200 years, it appears that long waves in the economy — a concept invented by the Russian economist Kondratieff in the 1920s — provide the fundamental force enabling Great Explorations, Macro-Economic Projects (MEPs), and even major wars. Indeed, all three types of events cluster near ebullient peaks in major twice-per-century economic booms called Maslow Windows; the next spectacular Maslow Window is expected to open near 2015. The current Panic of 2008 is a member of a class of Pre-Window Panics that occur about a decade before their Windows; panic onset years (Maslow Window opening years) are: 1837 (1847), 1893 (1903), none in 1949 (1959), and 2007 (2015, expected). Historical records also suggest a possible financial panic near the American Revolution that would fit this pattern; i.e., the Lewis & Clark Maslow Window opened near 1801.

Thus the surprising lesson of the last 200 years is that financial panics are a common feature of the economic landscape just prior to each Maslow Window. And yet no Maslow Window has ever been delayed by a panic or in any observable way diminished by one.

While the long-term trends are favorable, “the last months of 2008 will go down as one of the most severe economic reversals to date,” according to Zachary Karabell in the Wall Street Journal (12/26/08). He counsels that while we “may be in for a long slide,” it’s best to be “creative and unideological about solutions, and open to the possibility that as quickly as things turned sour they can reverse.”

Economic uncertainty in the U.S. is fueling increasing Russian fascination with Mr. Panarin, as is the fact that his catastrophic vision fits nicely with Putin’s plans for a globally resurgent Russia. Fun fantasies of a fragmented U.S. may also serve as a domestic distraction from the economic “perfect storm” and “political crisis” that may be brewing in Russia, according to Leon Aron (Wall Street Journal, 12/31/08).

And incidentally, Panarin also predicts that Alaska will escape from the U.S. and be “subsumed” into Russia. Do you suppose he’s ever met Governor Sarah Palin?

The inspirational mid-19th Century Great Exploration of Dr. David Livingstone opened central Africa to the world and has surprising parallels with the 1960s Apollo Moon program, as well as many lessons for future human exploration and settlement of space. The top 10 lessons of Dr. David Livingstone include:

10. Generally considered the greatest and most famous of all explorers in Africa, Dr. David Livingstone (1813-1873) was a medical doctor and Christian missionary born in Scotland. His was perhaps the most unusual Great Exploration of the last 200 years because Livingstone did not go for fame, monetary gain, or national prestige. His goals were altruistic: to end the slavery trade, to be a successful missionary, and to open up central Africa commercially to the world.
Dr. Livingstone’s monumental explorations in central Africa indicate the power of a Great Exploration during a Maslow Window to stir the world. However, as great as Livingstone and all the other Great Explorations of the last 200 years are, they only hint at the extraordinary, unprecendented space activities we’re likely to experience during the next Maslow Window, starting near 2015.

Dr. Livingstone thought Victoria Falls was the “most wonderful sight” he had seen in Africa. Click .

9. Dr. Livingstone’s world-wide fame as a great explorer and humanitarian lives on today even in popular culture (as well as history) over 130 years after his death, and indicates the dimension of his legend. For example, a) Dr. Livingstone appears on the album cover of The Beatles’ Sgt Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band, b) In TV’s Star Trek: The Next Generation, the fish in the background of Capt. Picard’s ready room is named Livingstone after the explorer, c) a video game for the Nintendo Entertainment System is called “Stanley and the Search for Dr. Livingstone,” d) in the 1981 movie Cannonball Run, Burt Reynolds mentions Dr. Livingstone by name, and many others.
Dr. Livingstone’s lasting fame has not been dimished by time, distance, his multi-year disappearance, or his fundamentally altruistic motivations. Indeed, this suggests that pure exploration, for exploration’s sake, is among the most attractive rationales to the global public, and may have implications for future human explorers on the Moon, near-Earth objects, and/or Mars.

8. The financial Panic of 1837 was a major contraction where 40% of the U.S. banks failed and unemployment was at record highs; it lasted 6 years until 1843. According to Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman wrting in 1960, the Panic of 1837 “is the only depression on record comparable in severity and scope to the Great Depression of the 1930s.” Nevertheless, the mid-19th Century Livingstone Maslow Window (roughly 1847 to 1857) opened on time and featured Africa’s most famous explorer (Livingstone), the “technological jewel” of the 19th Century (the Suez Canal), as well as stunning secondary MEPs (including the Great Eastern ship); this Maslow Window’s global ebullience is perhaps best captured by the Gold Rush in the American West (1848 – 1855).
Over the last 200 years, pre-Maslow Window bank panics have not perceptibly affected any Maslow Windows, and may, in fact, have stimulated them somewhat. There were two 19th Century panics (1837 and 1893) both about one decade prior to their Maslow Windows, none in 1949 (post W.W. II) one decade before the Apollo Maslow Window, and one currently in 2008 (8 years before our expected Window). Interestingly, the New York Times (11/30/08) recently suggested that a “deep recession” may have occurred near 1776, 10 – 15 years before the Lewis & Clark Maslow Window. In any case, during the last 200 years, no financial panic has ever delayed or diminished any Great Explorations or MEPs associated with a Maslow Window. With a new U.S. presidential administration highly motivated to ameliorate the current panic, there’s every reason to expect this 200+ year pattern to continue.

7. Although not as formally organized as the elaborate Apollo astronaut training in the 1960s, Dr. Livingstone’s early field experiences over nearly a decade were excellent “training” for his future transcontinental adventures. Initially influenced to go to central Africa in 1840 by a South African missionary, he was funded by his church as he moved from village to village spreading his faith, learning the languages and customs of local peoples, curing the sick, and expanding the infrastructure. Livingstone began to explore new lands and by 1849 The Royal Geographical Society had already awarded him a monetary prize and a gold medal for his discovery of Lake Ngami in the Kalahari Desert.
There is no substitute for significant training and appropriate experience in an environment as similar to one’s future exploration arena as possible. This goes for Livingstone in Africa and future astronauts on the Moon and Mars.

6. Between 1852 and 1856 — at the height of his Maslow Window — Dr. Livingstone made his stunning exploratory 4,300 mile transcontinental journey across central Africa including his amazing discovery of Victoria Falls (which he named after Queen Victoria I). It was the “most wonderful sight I have seen in Africa,” wrote an awestruck Livingstone after he carefully and dangerously measured its height as 360 feet. As he began to explore the Zambezi River area, Livingstone became convinced that opening up legitimate trade routes along this river would remove economic rationales for the slave trade. He returned to London as a national hero, went on a lecture tour, wrote his famous book, and energetically sold his exploration, commercial, and social justice agenda to an eager public. “Livingstone’s fame was so great that (during the) ‘Farewell Livingstone Festival’ on February 13, 1858, just before the explorer’s departure for a second Zambezi expedition, 350 of England’s most prominent citizens” attended, according to Dugard (2003).
Great explorers always have maximum societal impact during their Maslow Windows. Livingstone illustrates the pattern of the last 200 years that has included such timely luminaries as Lewis & Clark, Peary, Amundsen, Neil Armstrong, and others. They all point to the anticipated 2015 Maslow Window as another pivotal opportunity for human expansion.

5. In 1858 Dr. Livingstone triumphantly returned to Africa as the official head of the government-supported “Zambezi Expedition.” However, the British government recalled the failed endeavor in 1863. Although Livingstone had perfected the “small” expedition style of moving through central Africa, he was unaccustomed to managing the much larger Zambezi exploration entourage that he found himself leading. Plus, he became ill for the first time in 1862 partly due to the accidental loss of vital anti-malarial medicine into the Zambezi River. Then, tragically his wife died while traveling with the expedition. “I cannot tell you how greatly I feel the loss,” Livingstone wrote in 1862, “it feels as if heart and strength were taken out of me — my horizon is all dark,” (Dugard, 2003). As if that were not enough, a crucial portion of the Zambezi River — which Livingstone had not previously explored — was simply commercially unnavigable. This triggered the collapse of Livingstone’s anti-slavery strategy as his worst-case scenario materialized.
Dr. Livingstone’s Zambezi expedition reminds us that accidents, unexpected events, and even loss of life are sometimes a challenging part of a Great Exploration, and explorers must be trained to expect the unexpected. For example, when an oxygen tank exploded on Apollo 13 on the way to the Moon, the astronauts lost their normal source of electricity and water, but due to superb planning, determination, and creativity, everyone survived. Livingstone-style tenacity and Apollo-style independence from Earth will be absolutely required on interplanetary spaceflights.

4. British newspapers branded Livingstone’s Zambezi expedition a “failure” although considerable science (e.g. botany, medicine, ethnography) and many geographic discoveries (e.g., discovered Lakes Ngami, Malawi, and Bangweulu, plus Victoria Falls) had been accomplished. However, the Zambezi River was unfit for commercial navigation and Livingstone’s expedition was victimized by intertribal war and slave raids. In effect, “the journey was a highly publicized bust,” (Dugard, 2003). At this low point even the great Livingstone had difficulty finding financial support to continue his African explorations.
After Dr. Livingstone’s stunning African successes, the professional and personal toll experienced by the greatest explorer of his day on the downside of his Maslow Window in 1864 is reminiscent of the Apollo program. After the stunning 1st human landing on the Moon in 1969, public support waned (except for Apollo 13) until the last 3 Apollo Moon missions (18-20) were finally canceled by President Nixon. The bottomline is: As the momentary ebullience of a Maslow Window declines, public support for Great Explorations and associated MEPs rapidly erodes.

“Dr. Livingstone, I presume?” Click .

3. Amazingly, even after the Zambezi setback, Dr. Livingstone’s celebrity was so great that he was able to attract private funding to return to Africa. But by 1871 — during his search for the “source of the Nile” — Livingstone had actually lost contact with the outside world for several years. However, international interest in Livingstone was so high that a New York newspaper sent Henry M. Stanley and an expedition of 170 men to find him. Stanley wasn’t entirely sure that Livingstone wanted to be found and it took him 8 months to do so. Then, in Ujiji village on the north shore of Lake Tanganyika, one of the all-time famous greetings took place, “Dr. Livingstone, I presume?”
The Livingstone/Stanley story is impressive testimony of the enduring power of Dr. Livingstone’s global fame as an explorer, scientist, and humanitarian. It’s important to remember that Livingstone wasn’t an American and yet an American newspaper — reflecting their vicarious obsession with Livingstone’s adventures — sent Stanley to locate him. Few people could physically accompany Livingstone on his African explorations, but many were riveted vicariously to his adventures. The same was true of the polar explorers and the crews of Apollo, and will be for future lunar and interplanetary explorers.

2. On Christmas, 1871 Dr. Livingstone’s fever had dropped so he and Stanley decided to have a Christmas feast just like at home. Stanley had “used some very powerful arguments in favor of my going home,” but even Livingstone’s daughter Agnes admitted that, “Much as I wish you to come home, I had rather you finished your work to your satisfaction rather than return merely to gratify me.” Livingstone regarded her with pride as a “chip of the old block.” Dr. Livingstone eventually declined Stanley’s invitation to return to civilization. Fully reprovisioned, he continued his fruitless search for the source of the Nile; Livingstone died in 1873. At considerable risk to themselves, Livingstone’s African crew carried his body for 5 months to the East Africa coast where it was shipped to his burial place in Westminster Abbey, London. Also in 1873, the Vienna stock market crash in Austria began the Long Depression which spread to the United States that fall, and lasted for 6+ years.
The Panic of 1873 is a member of a class of financial panics that occur 16 – 18 years after the economic peak of a Maslow Window; they include the panics of 1819, 1873, 1929, and 1987. (The Panic of 2008 is a class of panics that preceed a Maslow Window.) The last 200 years show that any lingering ebullience and interest in Great Explorations/MEPs associated with the last Maslow Window collapse as the panic deepens.

1. Despite his failed anti-slavery Zambezi strategy and his inability to find the source of the Nile, Dr. Livingstone is widely regarded as the greatest and most famous explorer of Africa. His legacy was polished by Henry Stanley and later positive events that are traceable to Livingstone’s efforts as an explorer, educator, and missionary. For example, the curse of African slavery was finally eradicated due to the inspiration and writings of Livingstone; a month after Livingstone died, England threatened a naval blockade of Zanzibar which forced the Sultan to close its slave market forever.

While a period of european colonization did occur after his explorations, Dr. Livingstone’s name was not stricken from African streets, buildings, and towns, after independence. In fact, many Africans educated in schools established by Livingstone’s followers were leaders in national independence movements in central, eastern, and southern Africa. “Contrary to many western beliefs, Livingstone is greatly respected and admired by a large number of Africans — a sure testimony to the man who spent the majority of his life among them,” (Mackenzie, 1993).

While traveling nearly 30,000 miles over 1/3 of Africa he displayed the best of human values — sacrifice, service, curiosity — and pioneered the opening of central Africa to commerce and science.
Livingstone teaches us that exploration is a profoundly exciting activity with unlimited potential for both scientific and self-discovery. As a result of exploring the most unknown parts of the world he inspired people to care about his beliefs, even after his death. When future explorers seek to expand human civilization into the cosmos and financial and other challenges arise…
…We should — in the spirit of Dr. Livingstone — simply ask: “How much is a new planet worth?”

21stCenturyWaves.com exists to test the idea that long waves in the economy have enabled Great Explorations (GEs) and Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) over the last 200 years, and that this model provides a powerful portal into the future; see The Forecasts. Historically, GEs and MEPs come in brief, ebullient pulses — called Maslow Windows — separated by 55 to 60 years during huge economic booms.

Thomas Jefferson’s vision opened up the West in 1804. Click .

Interestingly, there is usually an important leader like Theodore Roosevelt (for the Panama Canal) or Thomas Jefferson (for Lewis & Clark) around who plays a key role. During the last Maslow Window — in the 1960s — it was President John F. Kennedy who provided Camelot-style symbolic leadership for the Apollo Moon program. This weblog suggested previously that President Kennedy should be considered both the Thomas Jefferson and the Theodore Roosevelt of his time because of his seminal association with not only the greatest GE of all time, but also the greatest MEP — both in Apollo.

Theodore Roosevelt’s vision opened the Panama Canal in 1914. Click .

Prior to the onset of the financial Panic of 2008 in September, this blog suggested that Barack Obama seemed to possess both the flexibility to be able to recognize the approach of the 2015 Maslow Window, and the charisma to lead the U.S. and the world into it. However, given the depth of the current recession, it appears unlikely that the recovery will occur before his potential second term. Because a major economic boom always powers the affluence and ebullience of a Maslow Window — and the recession may last 4 – 6 years — the next Maslow Window may not open much before 2015 (i.e., the expected date based on the last 200 years).

President Kennedy’s vision opened up the Moon for all humankind in 1969. Click .

So who else might be the next “Space President”…the next JFK? It will be someone who’s mindful of JFK’s space legacy and who could advocate a large, visionary, international project. And most importantly, this individual would need JFK-like charisma to provide symbolic leadership for the next race to space. Although highly speculative now, we suggest that it might be Caroline Bouvier Kennedy, President Kennedy’s 51-year-old daughter.

Our speculation is motivated by the December 5th Associated Press report indicating the Governor of New York discussed the possibility with Ms. Kennedy of filling Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat when she becomes Secretary of State. Reaction has been very enthusiastic in Democratic quarters suggesting they perceive Caroline as the charismatic embodiment of JFK’s legacy. If she were to be appointed, and demonstrated political success, it would give her a high probability of being able to be elected on her own in 2012. This would give Caroline a total of 8 years in the Senate before she could choose to run for President in 2016 — exactly one 56-year energy cycle after her father was elected; this blog has predicted that the next Space President will be elected in 2016 (or possibly as early as 2012) based long wave timing.

Caroline is a graduate of Harvard and received her law degree from Columbia. She worked at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City and has run the Office of Strategic Partnerships in NYC’s Dept of Education. She and her family live in Manhattan; her son John is named after President Kennedy. She has devoted most of her efforts toward the arts and humanities, and education. So the question becomes, what would it take for her to recognize that the many benefits from the space program could be a bridge between her past issues and interests and moving to a national platform, supporting the country in a broader context? Indeed, the contribution of the space program to today’s issues of education, energy, medicine and the environment is considerable. In particular, the space program has been a catalyst attracting students to science and math and engineering. These professionals contribute not only to our national space ventures, but provide a skill base for solutions to the energy crisis, as well as applying their skills to biomedicine or understanding climate change and global warming – leaving the world a better place for future generations.

Partly due to her highly publicized White House childhood, Caroline is closely associated with President Kennedy. As the sole survivor of her immediate family, she has been willing to participate in activities that recognize the contributions of her dad. For example, in 1967 she christened the aircraft carrier USS John F. Kennedy. In 1990, she was co-founder of the Profiles in Courage Award (named after her father’s book); it was given in 2002 to representatives of many key groups who saved lives during the 9/11 attacks. On January 27, 2008, Caroline’s Sunday New York Times op-ed piece endorsing Obama appeared; it was entitled, “A President Like My Father.” So stepping up to her father’s leadership and legacy in space – seen by many as one of the most significant accomplishments of the United States in the 20th century and one that clearly elevated the stature of the US in the world — could easily be a concept she might embrace.

In 2016, Will Caroline Kennedy expand on her father’s spectacular legacy in space? Click .

We also note that Caroline would be 59 if elected President in 2016, compared to her father’s 43; both would have spent 8 years in the Senate. It is not obvious to us that her age relative to JFK’s at inauguration would negatively affect public perceptions of her charisma. In fact, we suspect her more mature style of charisma and close association with her father’s legacy would be sufficient to make her the next JFK-like Space President; The One who will lead the U.S. and the world into the globally transformative space initiatives expected during the next Maslow Window.

Riveting polar expeditions of the 1903 Maslow Window resulted in the discovery of the north pole by Adm. Robert Peary (U.S.) in 1909 and the south pole by Roald Amundsen (Norway) in 1911; this “pole mania” featured daring adventure, international competition, and tragic accidents. The Peary/Amundsen Maslow Window has intriguing parallels with the 1960s Apollo Moon program and many lessons for the future human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.
The top 10 lessons of Peary and Amundsen include:

10. The early 20th Century Peary/Amundsen Maslow Window (1903 – 1913) featured the spectacular achievement of Admiral Robert Peary — first credited with reaching the north pole — and the “Heroic Age” of Antarctic exploration including Roald Amundsen, discoverer of the south pole, the tragic deaths of Robert Scott and his crew, and the aborted transantarctic expedition of Ernest Shackleton… For more, click HERE.
The presence of both widespread ebullience and spectacular exploration of new geographical sites forms the core of Maslow Windows of the last 200 Years, and will likely be the zeitgeist of the 2015 Maslow Window

Amundsen and crew reach the “last place on Earth” in December, 1911. Click .

9. Antarctic exploration in 1843 by Sir James Clark Ross — discoverer of the well-known Ross Ice Shelf — was the last mid-19th Century foray into the Antarctic by explorers for more than 50 years. Polar expeditions were replaced by the central African adventures of Dr. David Livingstone as the focus of the world’s attention during his Great Exploration. The postponement of polar exploration until the early 20th Century is consistent with the general rules of thumb for Great Explorations (GEs) during the last 200 years: a) GEs are separated by 55 to 60 years, b) their sequence is from closer geographical sites to those of greater inaccessibility (e.g., central Africa vs. poles), and c) new GE sites always stimulate great public interest. And thus our next Maslow Window should arrive near 2015 and involve humans to Mars, Moon bases, or possibly both.

8. Clarence King — a 19th Century version of both Carl Sagan and Howard Hughes –was one of the greatest explorers of the American West, but because of poor long wave timing he’s not associated with a Great Exploration. During his important exploits, Americans were devastated by the Civil War and Europeans were distraught by the financial Panic of 1873… For more, click HERE.
Scentist-Explorer Clarence King is a classic example of a great explorer not having the global impact you’d expect because his discoveries occurred in the decades between Maslow Windows; these often dark decades — over the last 200 years — are inhabited by major wars and financial contractions that quickly destroy societal ebullience and make Great Explorations temporarily impossible.

7. “This is the greatest factor — the way in which the expedition is equipped — the way in which every difficulty is foreseen, and precautions taken for meeting or avoiding it. Victory awaits him who has everything in order — luck, people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called bad luck,” according to the discoverer of the south pole, Roald Amundsen. In the 15 major antarctic expeditions from 8 countries during the Heroic Age, there were a total of 17 crew deaths, including Scott’s entire party of 5 while returning from the pole. Having been overcome by extreme weather and questionable strategic decisions, Scott’s ill-fated crew is reminiscent of the famous California-bound Donner party during the ebullient mid-19th Century Maslow Window, who was trapped by unusual, early snow storms in the California mountains after ill-advised voluntary delays.
Great Explorations always involve significant risks, especially in an atmosphere of international competition. Experience has shown (see Stuster, 1996) that the best way to ensure crew safety and mission success is by trying to anticipate every potentially threatening situation and taking appropriate precautions.

Monument near Donner Lake indicating the 20+ foot depth of the snow in 1846 (B. Cordell, 1999). Click donner.pdf.

6. The international conquest of Antarctica was launched in 1895 when a general resolution at the 6th International Geographical Society in London exhorted scientific societies world-wide to support antarctic exploration. This echoed a similar theme ventilated by London’s Royal Geographical Society in 1893. Between 1901 and 1917 — the “Heroic Age” — 15 expeditions to Antarctica were mounted by 8 countries including the United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, Scotland, France, Japan, Norway, and Australia.
The Heroic Age of antarctic exploration proved that international cooperation can be a powerful tool for science and exploration, and suggests that it will be essential for human expansion into the cosmos.

5. The financial Panic of 1893 caused estimated unemployment over 10% for 5+ years. The crisis initially lasted only 18 months but was followed by another recession that continued into 1897. The combination of GDP declines of several % coupled with population growth meant that GDP per capita didn’t recover to 1892 levels until 1899… For more, click HERE.
The Panics of 1893 and 2008 have interesting parallels, including that they began 10 and 8 years before their Maslow Windows opened, respectively. The Panic of 1893 suggests that the 2015 Maslow Window might be delayed only briefly as the global economy recovers to its mid-2007 “greatest ever global boom” status.

The 2015 Maslow Window may still arrive on time and feature Great Explorations even greater than Peary & Amundsen and Apollo, and MEPs more amazing than even the Panama Canal. Click .

4. Unike the Lewis and Clark expedition, which opened the West to human settlers, the Heroic Age of Antarctic exploration did not trigger massive human migrations to the polar regions. And while important meteorological and geographical science was done, it was the sheer adventure of polar exploration that enthralled the world… For more, click HERE.
That’s why during the 1960s Maslow Window, President Kennedy did not propose sending a mission to exploit the polar areas or anywhere else on earth, he chose to go to the Moon. It was the next obvious target that would globally demonstrate America’s technological prowess (Apollo was also an MEP), as well as revitalize education and society by activating raw human exploration passions — that have been hard-wired into us for 200,000 years.

3. “To a visitor from Mars it must have seemed that the Western world in 1914 was on the brink of Utopia,” according to historians J. Harrison and R. Sullivan (1966). Unfortunately, this pinnacle of Polar Maslow Window ebullience crashed in 1914 with the onset of World War I, the “Great War.” For more, click HERE.
The Peary/Amundsen Maslow Window is consistent with the lesson of the last 200 years: public support for Great Explorations and Macro-Engineering Projects typically vaporizes shortly after the economic boom peaks due to financial, political, and/or military factors. Maslow Windows flourish for less than a decade, and — unless we make special plans for it — the 2015 Window is unlikely to be an exception.

2. Although antarctic exploration began with an international organization in the mid-1890s, the desire to be first to the pole — i.e., pole mania — was overwhelming to some explorers. When Amundsen realized that Peary had reached the north pole in 1909, he made secret plans to be first to the south pole. For more, click HERE.
The Amundsen-Scott pole mania episode is reminiscent of the 1950s Cold War, which featured the International Geophysical Year’s plans to launch satellites into Earth orbit and resulted in the surprise Soviet launch of Sputnik in 1957; Sputnik ignited the Race to Space as the Apollo Maslow Window opened. As we approach the 2015 Maslow Window, is an Amundsen/Sputnik-type surprise likely to trigger the Next Race to Space?

1. Will there be a Grand Alliance for Space? Although the Polar Maslow Window failed in that regard (See #2), it’s likely the technical and financial challenges of early 21st Century space colonization will require a globally coordinated approach. The last 200 years indicate that twice-per-century pulses of Great Explorations and Macro-Engineering Projects are likely to be the focus of global ebullience in the foreseeable future — especially in space. And AIAA’s Jerry Grey and others have even suggested a multi-decade plan for unified, global settlement of the solar system. The spectacular achievement of the $ 100 B International Space Station and current international plans for Moon exploration and bases suggest hopeful movement in the right direction.

Like James Bond, who believed that “The World is Not Enough!”, The Planetary Society thinks the Moon is not enough…and frankly I agree with them!

The World is not enough… Click .

I’ve always liked Lou Friedman and The Planetary Society! Explore the planets, humans to Mars, an international team — what’s not to like? It’s practically the meaning of life! I also enjoyed their new roadmap to the solar system: Beyond the Moon: A New Roadmap for Human Space Exploration in the 21st Century. And the title of their plan says it all: the Moon is not enough. They have clear differences with NASA’s current Vision for Space Exploration.

The Moon is not enough… Click .

There are now three fundamental visions for space: 1) NASA’s current Moon-focused Vision for Space Exploration, (VSE) 2) The Planetary Society’s roadmap featuring Mars, and 3) a vision with interstellar travel to the nearby stars as its focus. Vision 3 has been championed by the British Interplanetary Society since its 1970s Project Daedalus study, as well as by Gene Roddenberry. More recently it has resurfaced as a way to promote a multidecade, global commitment to human space exploration; in essence they believe that Mars is not enough.

Is Mars enough? Click .

The model of this weblog (e.g., Cordell, 2006, and “Forecasting...”) has met with considerable success in explaining great explorations and technology development over the last 200 years in the context of long-term fluctuations in the economy. For example, a) this model explains why Apollo began when it did and why it ended abruptly (as well as all the other Great Explorations over the last 200 years), b) the model pointed to a financial panic near 2008 and Obama’s likely election (although I failed to explicitly forecast them!), and 3) the model projects what we currently observe — increasing global interest in space as we approach another ebullient 1960s-like decade: the 2015 Maslow Window.

So in the context of this long-term economic model, I want to offer a few comments on the Planetary Society’s roadmap:

1. The program focus — Moon, Mars, interstellar — really matters from a marketing perspective. The Moon suffers from the fact that humans went there 6 times almost 40 years ago. This might encourage a “been there, done that” attitude. Or will the global public see human exploration of the Moon like past generations viewed terrestrial Great Explorations; i.e., progressing from more accessible locations like northwest North America (Lewis & Clark) to more distant ones like central Africa (“Dr. Livingstone I presume”) and both polar regions (early 20th Century)? However, if the global public views the Moon as just one more stop on the road to Mars and beyond, the sequence of Great Explorations over the last 200 years — North America, central Africa, Polar regions, Moon — suggests that Mars makes a more alluring program focus — from a marketing perspective — than the Moon.

2. Global momentum is currently toward the Moon. The U.S., with its International Lunar Network, as well as many other countries (including China, Japan) have expressed strong interests in Moon bases circa 2020. Authoritative sources (e.g., National Intelligence Council) forecast a “revolutionized” international system toward 2025 (during the 2015 Maslow Window) including new players at the high table (e.g., Brazil, India) and new rules. This will enhance U.S. plans for expanding ISS-style coorperation to the Moon and beyond, and may even make a truly global approach to space (such as Interspace) possible. This trend, plus the closeness and easy access of the Moon, may make a Mars focus — even in the 2020s — less attractive to the global public.

3. Astronaut safety will drive any deep space program strategy.
Current NASA boss Mike Griffin contends that safety requires a Mars program to go through ISS and the Moon in logical steps, much like the Apollo program carefully approached the Moon. The Planetary Society report deemphasizes lunar surface infrastructure in favor of near-term human exploration of near-Earth asteroids. Although not mentioned in their report, developing human space ops experience at near-Earth asteroids will be extremely valuable at Mars when establishing human bases on Phobos and Deimos. The Planetary Society Mars-focus strategy elegantly integrates the first human missions beyond the Earth-Moon system with planetary defense (from near-Earth asteroid impacts), and with specific preparations for future human operations in the Mars system.

4. For a multidecade, global space vision to be viable, it must include a realistic geopolitical and economic framework provided by long-term trends over the last 200 years. The Planetary Society roadmap asserts that the NASA VSE goal of a human return to the Moon by 2020 may “lead to multi-decade delays in expansion of human activity beyond the Earth-Moon system.” They are absolutely right as I pointed out previously, although it’s not fundamentally because of programmatic and funding conflicts. They are more on target here: “The national economic situation exacerbates NASA’s budget difficulties and makes it likely that the stated lunar exploration timetable cannot be met.” In fact, the national (and global) economic situation is a predictable consequence of technological, exploration, and military trends that have persisted over at least the last 200 years. Ignorance of them results in disappointments like the abrupt end of the spectacular Apollo program. However, in reality, they provide a dependable framework within which multi-decade programs of any kind (including space) can be structured so they flourish and enable human expansion into the cosmos.

Space News reports (9/30) that building bases on the Moon followed sometime later by human spaceflight to Mars, is a logical sequence for NASA, according to NASA boss Michael Griffin. Indeed, those advocating near-term human Mars missions may not be “fully cognizant of the difficulties of sending astronauts to Mars.”

To be safe, Griffin recommends that a human mission to Mars should be simulated by a stay at the space station (like interplanetary flight to Mars), and 6 – 9 months on the Moon without resupply (like being on Mars). This strategy’s been supported by the National Academy of Sciences and others in the past. In fact, going back to the Moon might be more fun than it sounds because a recent National Research Council report suggests we know more about the Moon than any extraterrestrial world, but “we have barely begun to solve its countless mysteries.”

Griffin’s strategy is reminiscent of how the Apollo program worked: every key step was rehearsed in a relatively safe environment before men landed on the Moon. For example, Borman’s Apollo 8 crew in December, 1968 was the first to achieve lunar orbit, but it did not simulate a landing. That was reserved for Stafford’s Apollo 10 crew who flew to within 14 km of the surface. And before astronauts flew to the Moon, the rendezvous operations of the Command and Lunar Modules were perfected in Earth orbit on Apollo 7 and 9.

NASA carefully rehearsed each key step before astronauts landed on the Moon in 1969. Click .

However because of the Soviet-American race to the Moon, not everything was done systematically by the book. For example, George Mueller initially drew the ire of Wernher von Braun by suggesting “all-up” testing of the Saturn launch vehicle to save time.

Great Explorations over the last 200 years offer a unique perspective on the next step into space. The rhythmic, twice-per-century sequence of the hugely popular explorations was: Lewis & Clark/North America, Dr. Livingstone/Equatorial Africa, the Polar Expeditions, and Apollo/Moon. The lesson of the last 200 years is that although all four sites were riveting to the public, their chronological sequence was determined primarily by accessibility of the most interesting, unexplored site given the technology of the time.

So maybe we should bypass the Moon and go directly to Mars — the next logical Great Exploration target — because six Apollo crews already landed on the Moon almost 40 years ago. However, the Moon’s proximity (relative to Mars) and increasing international interests in Moon colonies (and even tourism) suggest the global public may soon be riveted by the spectacle of the irreversible, large-scale expansion of human civilization to the Moon.

But for Mars fans there is one lingering problem. If we take the history of the last 200 years seriously, it’s clear that even Great Explorations have only brief moments in the Sun — generally less than a decade — before ebullience fades, public support declines, and/or a war tragically intervenes. And based on the last 200 years, the next Maslow Window is likely to open near 2015 and close in the mid-2020s, assuming wildcards do not shorten it.

Assuming the U.S. (or someone) is able to return to the Moon by 2020, the bad news is that will leave only a few years at most to develop Mars systems, rehearse the crews, and execute the first human missions to the Red Planet. If we miss this Window the next one opens late in the 21st Century (~ 2071)!

But maybe the Moon will be enough for a while. In 1984, the wonderful German rocket scientist Krafft Ehricke — who ironically under NASA EMPIRE contract in 1963 described mid-1970s launch windows for manned Mars as “realistic” — once told me in San Diego that Earth-bound parents would someday love being able to go into their backyards on cool, clear nights and point to the exact spot on the Moon where their children were serving!

Nader Elhefnawy has written a stimulating essay (The Space Review, 6/23/08) on how long waves in the economy were fundamentally responsible for the 1960s space program. Because this is essentially what this weblog was created to probe, especially in the context of forecasts for future technology and space initiatives, I read it with some interest!

With the exception of a couple of points that I’ll get to shortly, I like the thrust of his essay and first explored these and related themes in my 1996 Space Policy paper and more recently in Futures Research Quarterly (2006); both online here.

It’s clear to most people who’ve looked that long — 50 to 60 year — waves exist in the economy and can be traced back at least 200 years. They were discovered by the famous Russian Kondratiev (“K-Waves”) in the 1920s and initially explained by Harvard economist Joseph “creative destruction” Schumpeter as triggered by clusters of technological innovations that ripple through the economy.

The most revealing, data-rich book on this topic is by Brian J. L. Berry (1991) Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development… The book that convinced me that long waves are real – and that they should be useful in forecasting — was the Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Workship of 2005 in Portugal edited by T.C. Devezas. For those who prefer social psychology to economics, rest assured that Michael Alexander (2002) has convincingly linked these long economic waves with the generational cycles of Strauss and Howe; see The Kondratiev Cycle: A Generational Interpretation.

Elhefnawy does an admirable job of briefly explaining how the 1960s “Camelot” economic boom paid for Apollo. But he’s not clear about the mechanism at work here, and so is fuzzier than he needs to be about prospects for the future.

Because I initially scanned not just the last 50 years, but the last 200, I noticed that in addition to Goldstein-style major wars, there were two other separate entities clustering around peaks in the long economic wave roughly every 55 years: the Great Explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark), and Macro-Engineering Projects – MEPs (e.g., Panama Canal); See The Forecasts.

It’s significant that the first time over the last 200 years that any MEP was physically associated with a Great Exploration was during the Apollo program! Prior to this watershed event, they were separate and usually soon terminated or at least negatively influenced by the major wars.

These and other insights suggested this model: Reliable upswings in the long wave result in rhythmic, unparalleled economic booms about twice per century. This triggers widespread affluence and ebullience, as large numbers of people ascend to the higher levels of Maslow’s Heirarchy. Thus, an ebullient societal mindset appears where large technology and exploration initiatives are not only favored by most, but seem momentarily almost irresistible.

This model — societal “ebullience” modulated by long economic waves — is being tested 24/7 by comparing current events and trends from around the world to The Forecasts. Our preprint, summarizing the “State of the Wave,” will be available here by the end of July.