Oct 13 2009
NEW APOLLO-LEVEL, INTERNATIONAL SPACE AGE BY MID-DECADE?
Macroeconomic Data and Global Trends Over Last 200 Years Support Near-Term Space Forecast
Today’s world is afflicted by natural disasters, economic uncertainty, and global terrorism. Is it possible that President John F. Kennedy’s 50 year-old vision of human expansion into space will rise again, by mid-decade, to dominate global headlines?
This weblog — founded in May, 2008 — shows the answer is yes.
Trends over the last 200+ years – in the economy, technology, and geopolitics – point to the decade between 2015 and 2025 as featuring a major economic and exploration boom like the 1960s, accompanied by a Camelot-style zeitgeist.
When the 1960s wave of space exploration is viewed in the context of other major technology, exploration, and science advances over the last 200+ years, it becomes possible to forecast the next peak in human achievement. Major events in human exploration (e.g., Lewis and Clark), massive state-of-the-art engineering projects (e.g., Panama Canal), and exceptionally destructive wars (e.g., W.W. I) are seen to cluster together twice-per-century, near times of major, JFK-style economic booms.
This new empirical, long-term approach to strategic technology forecasting convincingly explains our national romance with the Apollo Moon program in the 1960s, and society’s waning interest in it in the 1970s.
Even more importantly, our scientific forecasts illuminate the specific timing and key drivers of events in our future with major implications for business, technology, and education.
21stCenturyWaves.com’s two major themes are:
A) New scientific evidence for the psychosocial power of the Space Vision suggests that, like prior periods of significant human achievement, it is capable of being transformative for human civilization in the near future, and
B) Despite its compelling nature, the Space Vision will not fully begin to materialize until around 2015 when long-term trends in economics, technology, and geopolitics converge favorably again.
Within the next few years, major Apollo-style technology and space programs will announce the opening of the next “Maslow Window” and the new international Space Age. That’s the highly likely good news. It’s also possible that we could miss this opportunity for human expansion into the cosmos. If we do, the sobering lesson of the last 200 years is that our next realistic shot will be near the end of this century.
Our philosphy is to tell you what the last 200 years suggest will happen, not necessarily what we personally want to occur. And although we do talk politics, we don’t officially endorse candidates because our fundamental interest is in evaluating our space and technology forecasts against current trends from the real world. This reality-based blog will tell a generally positive story about the next decade in space, simply because that’s what the last 200 years strongly suggest.
See you at The Intro page!
“Live Long and Prosper!”
AS A PREVIEW… The rest of 21stCenturyWaves.com provides more background on the Forecasts themselves as well as real-time posts comparing them to global current events and trends. For example:
1. The Maslow Window — Intro page is the best place to begin.
2. The Maslow Window — Summary points to key posts that summarize the Maslow Window model. It’s useful for newcomers as well as those who are synthesizing its elements and have specific questions.
3. The annual outlook for space is published each January; the most recent one is here: State of the Wave — 10 Space Trends for 2012.
4. DecaState of the Wave — 10 Space Trends for the Decade 2010-2020 appeared in March, 2010 and is updated every few years.
Other Key Pages include:
1. About Us provides brief bios of our exceptional Contributing Editors and Staff.
2. Bruce is available for public speaking. For more information please click HERE.
3. Perspectives is ideal if you’re new to this Blog because it explains why each Wave Guide is important to evaluating our forecasts, and it sets the stage for all subsequent posts in each Wave Guide area.
4. The Forecasts provides the basic rationale for our space colonization-related forecasts based on trends over the last 200 years. Specific “nominal” model forecasts are shown out to 2030 in the form of timelines.
5. Readers’ Favorite Posts – Monthly are especially useful if you’re new to the site and want to get the flavor of what others are exploring here.
6. The Articles contains some of the original papers that describe many of the long-term trends in the economy, technology, and exploration that are the basis for the forecasts.
7. 200 Years shows graphically the energy cycle and the timing of many key exploration, technology, and military events over the last 200 years.
8. 10 Wave Guides lists and describes the key indicators that we use to evaluate current progress toward space colonization.
9. The State of the Wave appears often and is a review of events and trends used to evaluate the forecasts via the 10 Wave Guides.