NEXT APOLLO-STYLE SPACE RACE IN ~5 YEARS?

Macroeconomic and Historical Trends Over Last 200 Years Support Near-Term Space Forecast

Today’s world is afflicted by natural disasters, economic uncertainty, and global terrorism. Is it possible that President Kennedy’s nearly 50 year old vision of human expansion into space will rise again, in ~5 years, to dominate global headlines?

This weblog — 21stCenturyWaves.com — shows the answer is yes.

Trends over the last 200 years – in the economy, technology, and society – clearly point to the decade between 2015 and 2025 as heralding a similar economic and exploration boom as the 1960s, accompanied by a Camelot-style zeitgeist.

When the 1960s wave of space exploration is viewed in the context of other major science, technology, and exploration advances over the last 200 years, it becomes possible to forecast the next peak in human achievement. As trends are examined, major events in human exploration (e.g., Lewis and Clark), massive state-of-the-art engineering projects (e.g., Panama Canal), and exceptionally destructive wars (e.g., Civil War) are seen to cluster together roughly every 56 years, near times of economic booms.

This new macroeconomic/historical approach to strategic technology forecasting convincingly explains our national romance with the Apollo Moon program in the 1960s, and society’s waning interest in it in the 1970s. Even more importantly, it enables scientific forecasts about the specific timing and key drivers of events in our future, including the following:

1) When will humans land on Mars and vacation on the Moon?
2) Why has public support for space waned since the 1970s and, despite a world often full of bad news, why is it increasing now?
3) What are some of the near-term economic, technological, and political events we can expect that will culminate by 2025 in the greatest technology and space extravaganzas ever seen?

In summary, the two major themes presented in the 21st Century Waves blog are:
A) New scientific evidence for the psychosocial power of the space vision suggests that, like prior periods of significant human achievement, it is capable of providing a revitalizing force for human civilization in the near future, and
B) Despite its compelling nature, the Space Vision will not fully begin to materialize until around 2015 when long-term trends in economics, technology, and society are favorable again.

These themes and the forecast for 2015 have been featured in such journals as Space Policy, Futures Research Quarterly, Ad Astra. and as a presentation topic at AIAA conferences. You’re invited to join General Dynamics, Advanced Space Systems alumnus Dr. Bruce Cordell and a specially selected group of contributing editors and consultants as we track our forecasts in real-time against daily events and trends from around the world in 10 Wave Guide areas, including economic growth, non-space macro-engineering projects, popular culture, as well as NASA and international space activities.

This is “Space Colonization Central!”
We specialize in timing, roadmaps, and growth strategies.

Check us out!
Your comments and suggestions are welcome!

AS A PREVIEW… The rest of 21stCenturyWaves.com provides more background on the Forecasts themselves as well as real-time posts comparing them to global current events and trends. For example:

1. Perspectives is ideal if you’re new to this Blog because it explains why each Wave Guide is important to evaluating our forecasts, and it sets the stage for all subsequent posts in each Wave Guide area.
2. About Us provides brief bios of our exceptional Contributing Editors and Staff.
3. The Forecasts provides the basic rationale for our space colonization-related forecasts based on trends over the last 200 years. Specific “nominal” model forecasts are shown out to 2030 in the form of timelines.
4. Readers’ Favorite Posts – Monthly are especially useful if you’re new to the site and want to get the flavor of what others are exploring here.
5. The Articles contains some of the original papers that describe many of the long-term trends in the economy, technology, and exploration that are the basis for the forecasts.
6. 200 Years shows graphically the energy cycle and the timing of many key exploration, technology, and military events over the last 200 years.
7. 10 Wave Guides lists and describes the key indicators that we use to evaluate current progress toward space colonization.
8. The State of the Wave appears 1 – 2 times per month and is a review of events and trends used to evaluate the forecasts via the 10 Wave Guides.
9. Daily Wavelets are real-time comments about specific events and trends during the week that are relevant to The State of the Wave.
10. Also, Bruce is available for public speaking. For more information please click HERE.

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